MGoPodcast 13.15: The Taco Ceiling
1 hour and 10`minutes
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1. Offense
starts at 1:00
Miami, the city, is a weird place. Georgia's defense has a Devin Bush and even Blake Corum in space couldn't get around him. Run game didn't get anywhere and Cade's 3-4 yard passes at a time wasn't able to get Michigan down the field. JJ is probably the one with the ceiling to compete with teams like Georgia.
[The rest of the writeup and the player after THE JUMP]
2. Defense
starts at 18:56
We were hoping Michigan could make up the talent gap by scheming up some plays and playing smarter - turns out Georgia out-schemed Michigan. Georgia seemed prepared for all the nuances of Michigan's defenses that they could exploit. Seth gives some optimism about the future of this defense.
3. Hot Takes, 2022 Offense
starts at 29:56
Takes hotter than... Miami? Brian has opinions about tacos. Quarterback situation for 2022 looks to be really good. Unclear if there's a bruiser at running back to replace Haskins, but Michigan's backfield could be one of the most explosive in the country. Michigan loses a blocking tight end in Joel Honigford but the returning unit looks good. Center replaces Andrew Vastardis with a possible upgrade and the rest of the line looks to be in a good place - can any of them be an All-American? Add Ronnie Bell to the returning receiver group and they might be one of the best in the league.
4. 2022 Defense
starts at 52:40
Most of the defense returns for 2022. Losing the best defensive end duo in the country hurts, it's unclear on how to replace Ojabo and Hutchinson. Defensive scheme may need to be restructured a bit, but the recruiting seems to be planning for that. Junior Colson probably has the biggest growth potential at linebacker. Losing Brad Hawkins and (assuming) Dax Hill will be difficult, may need to play true freshmen at some point. Dropping a five-star true freshman (Will Johnson) at cornerback will be feasible next season. It's looking like Michigan could be in the same situation next season as this season going into the Ohio State game.
MUSIC:
- "When You Were Mine"--Joy Crookes
- "True"--Skirts
- "All of the Time"--Jungle
- “Across 110th Street”
THE USUAL LINKS:
Other than that, Jackie, how was Dallas?
January 5th, 2022 at 8:14 AM ^
Not sure I've seen it brought up yet but the 4th down call in the 1st Q was most deflating to any air in UM's tires. UGA scores effortlessly on their first drive and after getting stuck just into bulldog territory, they go for it on a 4th and medium. I hated the call and feel like after missing the conversion, the inevitable doom sank in for everyone on the UM sideline. I just feel like the camel's back broke quicker than usual in this game.
January 5th, 2022 at 8:55 AM ^
Not sure if the game would've been different, but I completely agree. It felt like UM was out-schemed on D, but offense just couldn't execute. UGA had a great game, and UM had 2 bad interceptions and a fumble. Very out of the ordinary for UM, I'm encouraged for the future if we make it back since the players and coaches will have seen how they need to play.
Also, UM was 0 for 3 on 4th downs, if they made one of two field goals from the 41 (57 yards but maybe Moody could have hit one) and converted the other on the UGA 5, it could have been a slightly different game. UM scored 8 in the second half, UGA 7.
January 5th, 2022 at 9:08 AM ^
All this is true, but also just the rationalization after getting destroyed on both lines of scrimmage.
Yes, a team can overcome getting outplayed on both lines (MSU vs. UM this year) but it takes a ton of luck, low probability-high leverage plays all going your way, and at least a wash in the turnover battle.
UGA did to us what we did to OSU - dominate both lines of scrimmage. OSU game was only closer due to some ridiculous plays by their receivers on high leverage (4th down) plays. This is why teams build from the inside out (Front 7, O-line), as winning these battles leaves the highest probability of consistent success. When you get owned on the line of scrimmage like we did against UGA, you can play the game 10 times and probably lose 9 of them.
Unfortunately, we didn't get a Sparty-like miracle against UGA or find an obvious scheme advantage (Sparty running tempo against our unprepared D-line).
Bama, LSU, Clemson, UGA, Auburn - The most dominant D-lines over the past 15 years is what we need to shoot for. There's a reason OSU gets destroyed in the playoffs consistently, and it's not because they lack great skill position players.
January 5th, 2022 at 10:07 AM ^
Yup. You have to execute flawlessly against a more talented opponent.
With the exception of the McNamara red zone pick, we did against OSU.
Unfortunately, the third down batted pass and the ensuing fourth down incompletion on the opening drive against Georgia were mere Harbingers of Doom.
January 5th, 2022 at 10:31 AM ^
UGA had a great game, and UM had one bad interception and a fumble.
FIFY. The pick right before halftime contained a comical amount of PI. Didn't change the outcome of the game in any way, tho. But still.
January 5th, 2022 at 9:00 AM ^
Considering the ease with which Georgia moved the ball, and the struggling slog Michigan had just to get to that 4th & 4, I thought the call was worth it. When UGA scored I figured 'opening drive, no big deal', because we've seen early game drives like that quite a bit this season. But the speed difference was notable when the offense had to fight extra hard for 2 yards against that defense. After the 4th-5th offensive play I knew it was going to be much tougher sledding offensively than I had imagined. And with that, I was kind of surprised they went for it, but kind of happy, too. Punting in opposition territory is something we deride hard around here, and rightfully so.
As it turns out, I knew how this game was going before the first quarter even ended. It was pretty clear...
January 5th, 2022 at 9:56 AM ^
I just think I would rather (hopefully) pin them deep and make them drive the length of the field and hopefully get them off the field or at least hold them to a FG. I understand giving the ball right back to them after they slashed us is not ideal but giving them a shorter field and demoralizing the offense at the same time a recipe for disaster.
Also if we're going to play the 4th down % optics game, we need to take into account the UGA defense. My optics say that the % of completing a 4th down pass against a fresh defense in the first series of the game will not go well... and it didn't. Live to fight another day and don't dash the spirits right away.
January 5th, 2022 at 9:53 AM ^
My bigger issue was the play before where a clear 3rd-down conversion was dropped. UM wasn't going to walk up and down Georgia but that was a play where UM had picked up a little momentum on the drive and that would have gotten Georgia on their heels a bit.
I don't think punting there on 4th would have ended any better for UM; they needed to answer with some aggressiveness and they were also in no-man's land in terms of punting anyway.
January 5th, 2022 at 10:35 AM ^
I disagree... for the same reason. With how easily UGA scored on the first possession, I think matching with a TD was the only thing that was going to keep us in that game.
Michigan should've chose to receive when they won the toss, as the underdog I think you want the chance to score first. Even a FG and going up 3-0 could've changed the momentum of that game.
Either way, I don't think there was any chance UM wins that game based on the talent discrepancy I watched.
January 5th, 2022 at 11:19 AM ^
Eh, this is one of those weird emotional plays. I mean, both for the players and for the fans. The players because if they make it they get a massive boost and their confidence skyrockets. It also demonstrates the coach's confidence in them.
The fans because it's 50-50 for how it affects criticism/praise depending on how it works out. If that had worked, and they continued down for a TD, nobody now would post messages calling it a mistake. It would have been a bold and aggressive call. Because it missed, it becomes, "dammit, what a boneheaded move."
I admit to being a bit surprised as well, at the time, but we were on their side of the field, and a punt quite possibly only gains us another 20 yards in field position (with the possibility of a return, of course). Since I tend to wish coaches were, in general, more aggressive, had more fun with the game, and allowed their offensive players more opportunities to stretch their wings, I won't second-guess.
In all honesty, Georgia scored every time they had the ball in the first half (except for that last possession, where the clock ran out). If we had punted, they would have run down the field and scored on us anyway. At the end of the day, I like Harbaugh pushing for scores.
January 5th, 2022 at 11:20 AM ^
Don't know . . . I can see the argument for pinning them deep, but after the ease with which UGa scored, I didn't really want to give up the ball there. We had a solid playcall that got All open, but McNamara just was a bit off-target.
January 5th, 2022 at 12:07 PM ^
I had heard that Georgia liked to establish the run and blah blah. Here are some numbers from the first 4 drives after which Georgia's offensive approach probably changed to a more conservative kill the clock mode.
First down runs 3
First down passes 11
Second down runs 1
Second down passes 7
I am going to assume the massive tilt towards early down passes took the Michigan D by surprise and led to the favorable, for Georgia, matchups against the LB etc. I don't know how else to explain Bowers being so open down the field like he was. For what it is worth (maybe not much), when Georgia went more run heavy later in the game, maybe like Michigan had originally expected the defense preformed much better.
Michigan, OTOH, played it much more by the book--basically alternating runs and passes on first and second down. Their first 3 first downs were called passes (Cade scrambled on one.) Followed by 2nd down runs. After that they were 4:1 runs to passes on 1st down and 0:3 run:pass on 2nd.
That looks to me like one of the coaching staffs came out super aggressive and responsive to the defense while the other came out and ran their usual stuff regardless of the defense.
January 5th, 2022 at 8:09 PM ^
I expected the offense discussion to focus on the OL getting their butts kicked and that wasn't mentioned at all. To me, that was the story of the game. Cade had no time, the RB had little opportunity, etc. I think taking deep shots was an option, but Cade rarely had time for that.
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