THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#14-seed Michigan (8-23, 3-17 B10) vs #11-seed Penn State (15-16, 9-11 B10)
WHERE	Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
WHEN	9:00 PM
THE LINE	Kenpom: PSU-4 Torvik: PSU-4
TELEVISION	Peacock (link)

[After THE JUMP: Many Nits to pick.]

THE OVERVIEW

I did not write a preview of the last Penn-State Michigan basketball game. It was January 7th, 2024. Football was 14-0, Rose Bowl Champions, and 24 hours from playing the Washington Huskies for a national championship. Men's Basketball was 6-8, coming off a double-OT collapse against Florida, another collapse versus Minnesota, and an abominable effort vs McNeese State that marked the beginning of Henri season. I was averaging under 3 hours/night sleep after a whirlwind turnaround from Pasadena to Houston, where I spent the hours normally reserved for hoops preview'in touring NASA instead of trying to learn the names of a Year Zero Nittany Lions squad made up almost entirely of transfers.

This was that weird game at the Palestra when Howard had just come back from heart surgery and let Phil Martelli coach. In a different world, letting your most overqualified assistant who's been living hours away from his family walk the floor in his hometown might have seemed a special gesture. In this world, it looked the head coach, like his team, would rather have been in Houston.

Basketball would win two more games in the regular season, over which time virtually every Michigan fan on this planet, and at least one who was not, decided it's time to move on from Juwan Howard. Two wins and fifteen losses later, Michigan managed to finish last by five games in the worst Big Ten in decades, and Michigan's athletics director finally shifted to a position of "Sigh, if I must, maybe."

Hearing from insiders that, while Michigan AD Warde Manuel would rather keep men's basketball coach Juwan Howard, he now seems less inclined to protect Howard's job. FWIW.
We're getting pretty close to "Nobody knows anything" territory, but that seemed significant.

— John U. Bacon (@Johnubacon) March 12, 2024

One more loss ends the worst season, whereupon the only thing left to preview will be (football spring practices and) some big expose coming down the pipeline about how bad the culture has degraded at Crisler. Again, expect every Earth-bound or Earth-orbiting Michigan fan to be completely unsurprised, except the only person whose inclinations matter. I'm with Alex here:

all of this is a long way of saying I'm not that interested in "posting to bully Warde into firing Juwan". If that is required, then Warde must be shown the door. The fans, players, alumni, everyone involved at the University of Michigan deserves better leadership https://t.co/QvsW3zxP8Q

— Alex Drain (@Alex_Drain) March 12, 2024

One could argue this late in the game it's reasonable to let the Big Ten Tournament play out. But since this is supposed to be a preview, here's how I think it's going to play out: Michigan is going to lose, Juwan Howard is going to be fired, Warde Manuel is going to follow him out the door, anyone who can leave the program will, the new AD's new basketball coach will find Michigan's transfer policies annoying but not as kneecapping as Howard made them out to be, and this time next year we'll be right where Penn State is currently.

THE US

My graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

The men say we will not live out the night.

THE LINEUP CARD

My graphic [click for big]:

As it says on the bottom, star PG Kanye Clary was dismissed five games ago.

THE THEM

Nobody in this photo is still around [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

We're going to start with the backcourt here, where Clary's dismissal returned PG Ace Baldwin to his more natural position to generally positive results. Whereas Clary was a ball-dominant scorer, Baldwin, who came over from VCU with coach Mike Rhoades this year, looks to set up his teammates. Since taking over the role his assist rate's been over 40, with only a small uptick in turnover rate. He earned this year's Big Ten DPoY (for whatever that's worth these days) on steal rate; Baldwin has long arms and a penchant for sticking them into your dribble. He also has a chesty lean-in shooting style that picks up a lot of fouls.

The Clary departure has meant a starting gig for one of Rhoades's two former Tar Heels. SG D'Marco Dunn just missed the top-50 coming out of high school, where he moved from Arizona to lead powerhouse Westover to a state championship. The combo guard skills never materialized in college, but Dunn still has that slasher's athleticism. If you do cut off his trip to the rim, Dunn's more likely to put up a terrible two than find a teammate. Marginally the best shooter on the team, PSU mostly likes to use Dunn as a spacer.

SF Nick Kern, another VCU Ram who followed his former head coach, is the secondary scorer they most trust to put the ball on the floor. He was a 65% shooter from two as a sophomore, but when facing a little bit of defense his offense falls off a cliff, with a turnover rate that flirts with 25%. Kern doesn't shoot threes (6/32 for his career), and misses a third of his free throws, so defending him on those drives is really the thing. Stay in front of him when he drives. When he drives stay in front of him. Is anyone out there? Hello?

Temple transfer PF Zach Hicks is Just-a-Shooter on offense, and just a 33-percent shooter, so: yep, he's on the floor to provide some defense, spacing, and most of all defensive rebounding. They get a little more than that from NC transfer Puff Johnson, who's been playing some small five.

When they are playing a big at center it's Georgetown transfer C Qudus Wahab, a smaller-than-he's listed center with massive rebounding rates who can be bumped away from rim. His free throw percentage (71%) for a big ain't bad.

The bench:

Beyond Puff Johnson it's been a different set of guys on different nights. The three most likely to show up and do something tonight are:

• Wing RayQuawndis Mitchell, a UMKC winger who loses his handle faster than T-Will but contributes defensively, off the ball, and on reboundss.
• SG Jameel Brown, an extreme just-a-shooter whose shots aren't going in. He has long arms though.
• Wing Leo O'Boyle, another extreme JAS.

THE TEMPO FREE

Rebounding has been an issue thanks to Wahab's limitations and the lack of anyone else to play with him. They'll look to poke the ball away and get out in transition, because once they're facing a set defense they don't have enough shooting, and end up taking shots anyways.

THE KEYS

Make the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year selection a joke again. They went with another PSU guard who steals the ball a lot. Baldwin might even deserve the award this year, but it's been really funny to see the guys they select get torched in the BTT every season since they jobbed Franz, and Dug McDaniel could be the guy to do it. Or he could give up eight steals and this could all be over in the first ten minutes.

Don't be anything like 2023-24 Michigan basketball. The keys to beating Penn State are all the things that Michigan has been terrible at this year. Stay in front of slashing wingers. Don't turn the ball over. Hustle over and challenge them at the perimeter.  Outhustle their one center so they have to go small-ball and rely even more on those bad shooters. Michigan's a sloppy, low-effort, zero-synergy team with the worst team culture in program history just waiting to be put out of their misery.

Don't get Peacock now. Just a few more hours and you don't have to find a friend who pays the bird until September.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Penn State by four.