THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#41 Michigan (5-5, 1-1 B10) vs #305 EMU (5-4, 0-0 MAC)
WHERE	Crisler Arena Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	Saturday, 2:30 PM
THE LINE	Kenpom: M -20 Torvik: M-20
TELEVISION	BTN (link)

THE OVERVIEW

The bowling alley is gone. Its sign is gone. The MGoShirt based on it is no longer in our store because nobody wanted it. But the legend lives on from the phallus on down in a now-annual Washtenaw rivalry we call the Ypsi-Arbor Bowl, when Michigan and EMU grads come together in their Michigan gear and hope the teacher's college down the way doesn't upset the season too badly.

Last year we did this in Detroit's LCA, whose atmosphere was honestly better than I've seen it for any Red Wings or Pistons game I've been to since it was built. EMU brought Emoni Bates and Noah Farrakhan and made it a game. Attendees hoping this meant something good for either program (or Bates) were to be sorely disappointed. EMU finished the season 317th in Kenpom and *dead last* in assisted FG%. Eastern fans who Homer.gif'd into the bushes emerged in time to see MAC friends Ohio get to overtime and Central Michigan upset the Wolverines.

The vibe around these programs in the year since hasn't improved. Bates was taken 49th overall and put in the G-league to start the process of teaching him how to play basketball. Farrakhan left for West Virginia (where he recently won a restraining order against the NCAA's one-time transfer rule). EMU's third banana from last year stepped into the Bates role, and their 6-8 non-center center got benched for a 7-footer who got broomed after a year at Georgia Tech because he plays like he's 6-9.

Michigan is coming off a big road win in Iowa City that we might not want to examine too closely. On one hand it was a 20-point lead until Iowa left its starters on to blitz the walk-ons. On closer examination, Iowa missed a ton of open threes (they were 3/18 before Kenpom Time), and the game was still close until Fran got two technicals and ejected for arguing a pair of unquestionably legitimate offensive fouls.

The other thing people noticed was that team trainer Jon Sanderson wasn't there, a fact that got bundled into rumors of an altercation between him and Coach Howard last Friday that triggered an HR investigation. But hey, Will Tschetter played his best game as a Wolverine, Tarris Reed made 5 of his 7 free throws, and they rebounded 78% of opponents shots, so LFG.

[Hit THE JUMP for the Ypsi-Arbor Bowl 2023.]

THE US

Me graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Not expecting Llewellyn back.

THE LINEUP CARD

My graphic [click for big]:

They are dead last in 2-point defense and don't really have a PG.

THE THEM

Acuff is the man now. [Campredon]

The one bit of good news for EMU last season was the development of Cass Tech alum/winger Tyson Acuff from a ghost at Duquesne into a bucket. I called him "6-4 Caleb Houstan" last year but Acuff is now carrying the offensive load despite a Bates-like reticence to pass the ball to a teammate. He has scored over 31 points twice this year, and is taking 31% of EMU's shots with an assist rate under 17. The difference in results often comes down to whether the opponent has someone capable of guarding a 6-4 "point guard" since everyone else on the court is 6-7 or above; he's 9/19 on contested threes this year, but his points per shot equivalent against FAU and Butler was 0.94, versus his 1.31 PPE against the nobodies.

Watch either of his 31-point games this year and this makes sense. Acoff has a strong crossover move to unbalance anyone not athletic enough to stay in front of him, and a good, soft pullup game to score over anyone who can't go up with him:

Michigan should stick Nimari on him and be fine.

As for the Acuffettes, you could list them in any order, so we'll start with point forward Julius "No Relation" Ellerbe, a JUCO transfer on a miserable 3/21 streak on all jump shots. But scoring's not really his game; Ellerbe averaged over 5 assist/outing for East Central CC last year, and has been leading the team in assist rate, as well as turnovers, with five assists and seven giveaways last weekend versus Oakland. Ellerbe's always looking to draw attention and/or draw contact, and is responsible for most of the frontcourt's points.

If we go by usage, the guy after Acuff is PF Yusuf Jihad, a poorer man's Terrance Williams having a good shooting year that's raised his career average from the arc to a respectable 36%. Jihad was asked to play small as a center last year but never developed his moves inside; run him off the arc and he's a career 42% from two not doing much better than that. He's also floor-bound, and disappears from the boards at times. He was on the bench to start the season but  moved into the starting lineup when they shuffled everyone around in November, and played 34 minutes in their last game. He tends to rise in bigger games, coming off the bench to beat rival UofD last year and beginning his starting streak with them.

If you're wondering where to stash Dug, they can probably get away with having him pester Slovenian Just-a-Shooter freshman Arne Osojnik, who's a solid 12/33 (36%) on contested threes this season because everybody else had the same idea despite Osojnik being 6-6.

C Cyril Martynov is the afore mentioned big from Georgia Tech. He's listed at 7-0, but his shoes are so stuck to the floor that he's functionally 6-9, with a terrible rebounding rate for a big, virtually zero blocks so he doesn't actually do much besides stand there being 7-feet. Offensively he's lost, his only positive offensive contributions being cutters off Ellerbe's action. He's never attempted a three, and is carrying a 34% turnover rate this year. But seven feet is its own attribute, especially when you play for the worst 2-point defense in basketball, and Martynov took Geeter's starting position a couple of games ago.

Last year's C Legend Geeter (!!!!) is still around, still gets the majority of minutes, and still more of a linebacker than a center. He can generate some of his own points in the paint, but his turnover rate against any team with a pulse makes him unplayable, and he can't shoot well enough to play anywhere else. What he will do is attack the offensive glass. I'm not expecting them to leave him in against Michigan for very long, though, since he's an automatic bucket on defense.

The bench:

• PG John McGriff comes on the court when Heath decides he needs an actual backcourt-flavored guard on the court. He'll appear when Dug starts blitzing past Acuff, and disappear after two clangs followed by turning the ball over on three straight possessions.
• Forward Jalin Billingsly came over last year from Georgetown. He was supposed to be a thicc three-and-D player but gave up on the three part. He comes in when Heath is sick of watching Jihad give up rebounds, so: often.
• PF Connor Serven went to Illinois as a regular student then joined the basketball team and got about 30 minutes across three years in blowouts, with a 9 trillion in the 2022-'23 opener.
  
  When the box score had something other than zeros it was rebounds.

THE TEMPO FREE

Four factors:

This is a bad defense and an offense that just shoots whatever. They're 246th in % of field goals assisted, which is a big improvement from the Emoni Bates year. They don't get out in transition much unless McGriff is in the game.

THE KEYS

[Campredon]

Put things in baskets. This is the worst 2PT defense in the country AND is performing well above expectations on guarded 2PJ and 3PJ defense, which means they're lucky not to be worse. They've given up 30 dunks already, and over half of the shots against them have been at the rim.

Make the 7-footer unplayable. The reason they keep playing Geeter at center is Martynov's more likely to cough up the ball than put it in the basket.

Minimize Acuff. He's going to get his unless his threes aren't going in (13 points, 81 ORtg vs Butler), but their offense tends to come to a standstill once you defend the one action they ran for him. Central Arkansas (Kenpom Rk: 333) kept him to the fewest possessions and only lost by three. He also went 8/11 from the floor for 23 points on 14 shot equivalents. Imagine that minus efficiency because he's got Nimari on him.

Meep Meep Dug. Their best lineup has no guards, which means they're going to have a heck of a time staying in front of Dug's drives.

Focus. Sleepy home game after a big road win with program turmoil all around them will be a good sign of how not-last year's team this one is.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 20.