Believe it or not, the team's shooting issues come up either directly or indirectly a few times. Let's dive in.

Is there a chance that our 3pt shooting going in the toilet is at all related to the coaching change?  Meaning, is is possible that Beilein would have devoted hours to shooting form and mechanics while Juwan is focused more on addressing other things (aka post defense)?

Adam
Chicago, IL
AC1997

I wouldn't be surprised if there's a small impact on shooting because of practice focus—John Beilein is famously maniacal about fundamentals, after all. That doesn't nearly cover the gap in shooting from last year to this year, however. Michigan was in line to have an excellent shooting team this year regardless of the coach; then their top two outside shooters left for the NBA and the third got hurt.

It helps to look at a visual of last year's three-point distribution compared to this year's. Below is a table showing the top shooters by share of the team's total three-point attempts on the season, followed by their three-point percentage.

While the 2018-19 squad was not a good shooting team by Beilein standards, the top three shooters formed a dangerous trio, and at least two of them were on the court at nearly all times. This year's starting lineup with Isaiah Livers injured features only one reliable shooter. Franz Wagner's struggles have really hurt. The team has pushed more shots to marginal shooters; this year's Brandon Johns attempts are coming in the competitive portion of games, while last year's David DeJulius chucks were not.

When you remove Livers from this year's team, you get into non-shooter territory in a hurry. That hurts everyone's shooting; when teams can all but ignore three players as outside threats, they can clog the paint without giving up open looks to the primary shooters.

Given the personnel, I'm not ready to make a judgment on Juwan Howard's impact on shooting. This team generates plenty of good looks. Other than Simpson, who was equally bad under Beilein, nobody has obvious mechanical issues—Wagner's shots, for example, look like they should go down.

A portion of Michigan's shooting struggles is due to roster makeup. Another portion is due to rotten luck. (The dirty secret about college basketball stats: a full season is still a small sample size.) Compared to those two, any coaching impact is minor.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the mailbag.]

----------------

a consistently aggressive Brandon Johns would be a major development [Campredon]

#mgomailbag Do you see anything besides “make the open shots” that can be done to get this team back on track to be a tournament team?

— Wil Jordan (@Tuba1060) January 29, 2020

While there's been noted improvement over the last few games, I'd certainly suggest Michigan not be the second-worst defensive team in the Big Ten.

The team's defensive numbers are especially bad when Livers isn't in the lineup. Wagner and DeJulius, in particular, stand to improve as on-ball defenders. Everyone needs to get better at communicating—there have been too many missed assignments, leaving Jon Teske to clean up a lot of backdoor cuts lest the opponent get free layups.

If Livers is out for any length of time, the biggest key to a turnaround is Brandon Johns playing with confidence. We saw that against Nebraska; too often he fades against better opponents. He has all the requisite talent and, for the moment, a great opportunity to showcase that. He needs to seize it.

Johns's usage has actually gone down a couple percentage points since Livers suffered his initial injury, even when removing bodybag games from the two samples, when it should be holding steady or going up. He's also been much less of a factor on the boards. Tuesday night was a nice step forward; hopefully that gives him some confidence.

----------------

Also it feels deeply weird to have a B1G road game in which Michigan has twice as many FTAs as the home team did. DDJ and Brooks drew a surprising number of fouls. Is that replicable going forward or just an isolated case of Nebraska?#mgomailbag

— MC Mismatched Plaids (@mismatchedplaid) January 29, 2020

First, the Cole Bajema question: I have to think this is about finding a way to get a redshirt on him like John Beilein did with DJ Wilson. As discussed on this week's WTKA roundtable, this is a more feasible option than we first thought. I would guess this choice is coming from Bajema's end; he'd probably rather use this year of eligibility on a season he'll play more if there was even a decent chance he was going to remain behind Nunez.

I also maybe wouldn't read into Baird playing over Bajema as much as Nunez continuing to get minutes over him. In this particular game, Michigan needed someone who knew where to be on defense and could also direct others; Baird is much more likely to be at that point than Bajema, who may still be in the overwhelmed period that most freshmen go through.

As for the foul differential, I wouldn't take too much away from it. Michigan had a 24-12 advantage in free throw attempts over Nebraska, but eight of those came in the final four minutes. The Huskers are a small team with bad interior defense, not something the Wolverines are going to run into very often. The one bit of that uptick that could be sustainable, in my opinion, is Brandon Johns getting seven attempts; again, that'll require him maintaining his aggressiveness.

One area of promise that didn't produce free throws but could in the future was Wagner attacking the rim with aplomb. He got an and-one for his lone shot at the line, but his repeated forays to the rim coupled with his slick footwork and long arms should allow him to draw more fouls.

----------------

​more of these needed? [Campredon]

Ace, 

I hope you're doing well. I've noticed that Juwan doesn't really use his timeouts. 1 against Nebrasketball, 3 against Illinois, 2 against PSU, 3 against Minnesota. He did use 4 against Iowa. 

Is this a thing? 

Thanks,
Carl

I can't find a stat that tracks timeout usage, though I can get a rough one from Synergy by looking at percentage of possessions that occur after a timeout. Michigan is pretty much dead center at 156th nationally. As the numbers in the questions indicate, it really depends on the game. I haven't found myself getting frustrated by Howard's use of timeouts or lack thereof. Michigan's offense performs better in overall halfcourt play than they do after timeouts; while they may get to draw up a play, they also allow the defense to get set and choose their matchups.

This question gives me a chance to point out a great use of a timeout in the Nebraska game that I'd like Howard to adopt. Michigan ran the clock down as much as they could on their final possession of the first half, getting a Teske tip-in with 4.2 seconds left. Fred Hoiberg instantly called a timeout; I'm guessing he was in a ref's ear earlier in the possession regarding his intention to call one.

That got his team a cheap possession when in most cases you see the clock expire. As it turned out, 4.2 seconds was long enough for Cam Mack to drive coast to coast for a layup. (It was not Michigan's finest defensive moment.) Nobody is going to jump down the throat of a coach who lets the clock run in that scenario, but I love Hoiberg's desire to maximize possessions.

----------------

​keep this up, please [Campredon]

Based on the last couple weeks, I’m considering the rest of the season to be a bit of a lost cause. If they make the tournament they’re a quick out.

Working under that premise, what are we looking for during the rest of the season? Are we looking to see if the underclassmen, Wagner and Johns specifically, will become the stars of next year’s team, or merely solid role players (think MSU’s McQuaid and Goins) to support the monster incoming class?

Stay healthy man.

Eric Coughlin

I still hold a flicker of hope that if Livers returns to full health this team can be a tough out in March. That said, it's probably healthy to start thinking this way if you haven't been keeping an eye on 2020-21 all year like, say, most of the staff here.

This is audition time. Wagner appears to be in the right mindset, even if the outside shots aren't falling yet, and his skill is apparent—Brian discussed his potential at length after the Nebraska game. He's going to play a major role on next year's team. So will Livers. Almost everything else is up for grabs, especially if Josh Christopher signs with the 2020 class.

I'm watching for signs of progress; many of those were covered in my last mailbag. Even though it didn't go well from a passing perspective, I liked seeing Wagner step up as a primary creator against Nebraska with Simpson out. There's a lot of possessions to be had with Simpson graduating; someone needs to show they can do something with them other than launch a shot.

----------------

Hey Ace,

Should we be concerned about roster balance next year if nothing else changes (ie we don’t get Josh Christopher). We basically would have 3 guards (DDJ, Eli, Zeb) for 2 spots. Very similar to this year without the experience of Simpson.

Are we leaning too hard into bigs (next year Caselton, Dickinson, Todd, Williams, Livers all with play 4/5) and not enough into guards/wings?

I'm not sure I agree with the premise here. While Castleton, Hunter Dickinson, Isaiah Todd, and Brandon Johns are all in the 4/5 category, Livers can very much play the three, as can Terrance Williams, who's 6'6"/215 and projects to have a solid outside shot. Wagner is a wing who could potentially slide down to the two. I'm assuming one of Nunez or Bajema will still be around for wing depth; they could also play a little shooting guard. Jace Howard may come in as a walk-on but he's ranked over 50 spots above where Nunez was as a recruit.

Given all three guards—DeJulius, Brooks, and Zeb Jackson—are combo guards, I'm not worried about backcourt depth even if Christopher doesn't end up in Ann Arbor. There might be an awkward fit somewhere if there's an injury to one of those three; that's generally going to be the case if you lose a rotation player on a college team.

Meanwhile, three guards for two spots is plenty—many of us are trying to find more minutes for DeJulius this season. There's enough versatility up and down the projected roster that I'd be surprised if depth became a problem in 2020-21.

----------------

​me, trying to answer this question [Campredon]

Where would this team be right now in the alternate dimension where John Beilein doesn't leave? #mgomailbag

— Joe (@blueandjoe) January 29, 2020

This is more complicated to answer than it could be since four-star freshman Jalen Wilson, who would've stuck with Michigan had Beilein stayed, went down to a broken ankle in the second game (and his third minute) of the season.

Assuming (bad) injury luck stays the same, I'm not sure things are too much different. Michigan was 24th in adjusted offensive efficiency last year; this year they're 31st despite a worse group of shooters and the loss of Livers. The team is, in fact, shooting the exact same three-point percentage as last year and only a tick below the year prior—incidentally, the three years Simpson has started at point guard. Maybe Beilein gets more from the perimeter players; if we're giving him that, though, he probably doesn't get as much offense from Teske.

While the defense certainly seems like it'd benefit from Luke Yaklich being around, Texas's has taken a step back this year, and Michigan lost arguably the best perimeter defender in the country in Charles Matthews. They'd probably be doing better than they are this year by sheer continuity; another top-five, or even top-25, finish may be unrealistic given the personnel and injuries.

It seems like one factor for Beilein leaving was that a team he initially thought would be loaded for a Final Four run was going to be in more of a transition year. Dude left for the Cavs after withdrawing his name from the running for the Pistons job the year prior. Something changed in there, and I believe a big part of it was how much he thought he could get out of the roster. I don't believe this year's team would look too much different with Beilein at the helm unless this alternate universe also eliminates injuries, which makes for a somewhat pointless exercise. Meanwhile, the 2020 recruiting class would look significantly different.

----------------

​the woooooooooooooorst [Patrick Barron]

Would you rather play against a team of 12 Brad Davison clones or 12 Grayson Allen clones? #mgomailbag

— Matthew Duprey (@PharmDuprey) January 30, 2020

I'll take the sweet release of a cyanide pill, which is a much quicker way to go than death by a million hits to the jimmies.