2019-20 nebraska #1

1 hour and 22 minutes

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1. Rutgers at MSG

starts at 1:00

When they scheduled this game they couldn't guess Steve Pikiell would bring about the Rutgers renaissance. Michigan turned it over 16 times and gave up 36 offensive rebounds and won because finally someone didn't shoot 50% from three on them. They did it by being more Rutgers than any other previous Rutgers: putting up contested bad shots galore. The Johns game! Having a rim-runner who can hit free throws is important. He also nailed the shot after the long pass sequence.

2. Nebraska at Lincoln

starts at 26:52

Wagner was taller than everybody but their center, who's not good. Their backup center was hitting stupid jacks at 50% when he wasn't stepping out of bounds. Cam Mack also went 5/7 from beyond the arc in this game. But since they're Nebraska, they have no size, no defense, and no way to keep Michigan off the boards. Eli Brooks saves the offense! Frustrated by Teske's lack of aggression so they go with Johns post-ups. Bajema: we think they can get a redshirt if he doesn't play again, and documents an injury.

3. Hot Takes and Big Ten Melee

starts at 39:59

Michigan's won 10 in a row at MSG—should they play their home games there? Brian tells us which sports his kids will play. Brad Davison, the crewcut psycho, sits out against MSU and Wisconsin still beats them. UW is also without Kobe King the rest of the year. OSU is without DJ Carton. Illinois is going to win the league—they've played good teams and they've changed up how they play defense, and everyone else murdered each other. OSU preview: Wesson lost weight, lost some of his post presence, gained an incredible three. They shoot a lot—please don't be unlucky again.

4. Ace's Ohio State Hockey Podcast

starts at 1:06:46

They won on Friday and didn't move up in Pairwise because everyone else won and it was a home game. Saturday was a classic Michigan loss: won Corsi, gave up five odd-man rushes. Coward refereeing for giving their captain just 2 minutes for knocking out Lockwood. Michigan down a whole line for the 3rd period. Don't even attempt to pass on 2-on-1s.

MUSIC:

• "New York"—Cat Power
• "Inside Out"—Spoon
• "God's Gonna Make You Laugh"—Ephemerals
• “Across 110th Street”

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Believe it or not, the team's shooting issues come up either directly or indirectly a few times. Let's dive in.

Is there a chance that our 3pt shooting going in the toilet is at all related to the coaching change?  Meaning, is is possible that Beilein would have devoted hours to shooting form and mechanics while Juwan is focused more on addressing other things (aka post defense)?

Adam
Chicago, IL
AC1997

I wouldn't be surprised if there's a small impact on shooting because of practice focus—John Beilein is famously maniacal about fundamentals, after all. That doesn't nearly cover the gap in shooting from last year to this year, however. Michigan was in line to have an excellent shooting team this year regardless of the coach; then their top two outside shooters left for the NBA and the third got hurt.

It helps to look at a visual of last year's three-point distribution compared to this year's. Below is a table showing the top shooters by share of the team's total three-point attempts on the season, followed by their three-point percentage.

While the 2018-19 squad was not a good shooting team by Beilein standards, the top three shooters formed a dangerous trio, and at least two of them were on the court at nearly all times. This year's starting lineup with Isaiah Livers injured features only one reliable shooter. Franz Wagner's struggles have really hurt. The team has pushed more shots to marginal shooters; this year's Brandon Johns attempts are coming in the competitive portion of games, while last year's David DeJulius chucks were not.

When you remove Livers from this year's team, you get into non-shooter territory in a hurry. That hurts everyone's shooting; when teams can all but ignore three players as outside threats, they can clog the paint without giving up open looks to the primary shooters.

Given the personnel, I'm not ready to make a judgment on Juwan Howard's impact on shooting. This team generates plenty of good looks. Other than Simpson, who was equally bad under Beilein, nobody has obvious mechanical issues—Wagner's shots, for example, look like they should go down.

A portion of Michigan's shooting struggles is due to roster makeup. Another portion is due to rotten luck. (The dirty secret about college basketball stats: a full season is still a small sample size.) Compared to those two, any coaching impact is minor.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the mailbag.]

1/28/2020 – Michigan 79, Nebraska 68 – 12-8, 3-6 Big Ten

You may have noticed that these posts spend an inordinate amount of time talking about Franz Wagner. The slim sections of them not dedicated to complaining about cosmic shooting injustices often linger on Wagner: how is he feeling? How is he doing? Would he like some hot tea? Guten morgen Franz, would you like a newspaper? Newspapers used to be news, on paper, Franz. Yes I don't know why anyone would print that stuff out. I feel like we're losing the thread of the conversation.

Anyway: this game made the reason for this obsession clear. Minus Zavier Simpson, Michigan needed someone to generate shots. John Teske opted out after a little early success when Nebraska's oompa-loompa crew started doubling him; DDJ and Brooks chipped in here and there but Brooks only took two twos and DeJulius only hit one of his five. With Michigan stuck in its usual malaise from behind the arc someone was going to have to hit something on the interior.

That was Franz, who was 7/10 from two with an and-one and one dubious charge call suffered. Many of these were easy finishes:

Michigan | ATO Special

Really like this after timeout call from Howard to get a baseline runner a look from three or attacking a close-out.

Baseline runner --> Pin --> Hand-back --> Flare pic.twitter.com/ARokYtr4BS

— Eric Shapiro (@eric_shap) January 29, 2020

And that's why we keep talking about Franz. DDJ's only make was a tough floater he took after driving baseline. When DDJ hits something the most common reaction is "wow," because everything DDJ hits is tough. Aside from the occasional cut that catches his defender on a screen, everything Brooks hits inside the line is tough. An earlier edition of this post asserted that Brooks should prefer long twos once he steps inside the line. QED.

Never say never but it is unlikely that either one is able to improve from their current 46% inside the line to anything near good. They're always going to be 5'11" guys who shoot layups on breakaways. Zavier Simpson did it; guys who improve like Simpson are rare. Call me when someone else under six feet tall develops a sky hook.

Wagner is nearly a foot taller than those guys and has crazy gumby arms, so when it goes right it leads to shots that should convert. He missed an early bunny against Illinois, causing everyone to go "argh." But to miss a bunny you've got to make a bunny. Franz creates bunnies. He's already shooting 58% from two despite looking like a stick insect.  There's a path to high volume efficiency there that nobody else currently on the roster has except maybe Johns. Wagner is nearly two years younger than Johns and much more aggressive despite that gap.

Also Franz was 1/5 from three to pull his season average further under 30% and had six turnovers. It can be said that Franz saved Michigan's ass in a game where he had an 89 ORTG. This is the dichotomy of Franz. Dan Dakich exclaimed that "he's a pro" after one swooping layup, because he sure as hell looks like one 36.4% of the time.

The rest of the time… eh, not so much. Wagner is currently high on the list of deceptive highlight guys. You can put together reels in which he looks like a superstar. In fact someone did based on this game:

Franz Wagner
Michigan G 6'8, 205

Wagner continues his strong stretch (18 PTS, 8 REB, 1 AST, 3 STL, 1 BLK), making an impact on both ends and leading the Wolverines to a crucial road win.@ProBBallCombine
pic.twitter.com/rqNxVyDF2V

— Jonathan Götting (@j_goetting) January 29, 2020

This is not the reality of Wagner. But it—particularly the floater that is an entirely different kind of shot than floaters from Michigan guards—is why we keep talking about him. Brooks is going to be a version of Brooks down the road. DDJ is going to be a version of DDJ. Wagner could be anything.

[After THE JUMP: miscellania including a 353 ranking]