My fix for the next game is to swap in Williams and Diabate for Johns and Houstan.  Might help both Johns and Houstan and get Williams steady hand on the court.  Team would severely lack shooting but would be a defensive menace.  Run offense through Dickinson and then sub in Houstan or Bufkin to get some shooting on the court.

1- DJ / Brooks 30/10

2- Brooks / Zeb 25/15

3- Bufkin / Williams 20/20

4- Houstan / Johns 30/10

5- Dickinson / Diabate 30/10

Michigan needs more shooting around Dickinson and better defense at the 3. If Johns wants to keep screwing around, give his minutes to Diabate.

Very nice writeup and summary of where the team stands after 3 games.  I think last night was just one of those growing-pains type of game that we need to expect for awhile.  Thank goodness for Eli Brooks though.  It's been a pleasure to see his evolution and development since he came in as a freshman.  He's a great example of why 4+ year players are so important to a team.  Many people forget too that Villanova really wanted him pretty badly.  So, they saw how good of a player he could become, as did John Beilein.  

I think Jones will get a lot more consistent and will learn he can't get away with the type of defensive plays he did at Coastal Carolina, several of which were very costly to the team last night.  Brandon Johns though is a big disappointment so far however.  Even with being  a starter and getting plenty of minutes, he just still can't find the confidence to become what he's capable of.  I'm not giving up on him, but Juwan may have to have a plan B ready in case he doesn't get better.

Minor quibble - the absurd reach in was not Jones' fifth, it was his fourth. His fifth was an intentional one when Seton Hall picked up a rebound still up 1. But it was "spiritually" him fouling out since it gave Seton Hall 2 shots while trailing by 1, on a possession where "just play defense" was absolutely the play. 

Id like to remind everyone of the last elite defensive buzzsaw - the Final Four team in 2017 - and how poorly they started the season

Zavier Simpson and Charles Matthews were scapegoats at first, by the tourney they were indispensable.

If we have to win a bunch of games 70-67, so be it. By the tourney we'll be a tough out.

Great point about the Oakland & PSU games last year. Basketball teams take time to gel and learn to play together, especially one with all these new moving pieces. Last year the main new players were:

• Dickinson, who didn't start and got better throughout the year
• Brown, who didn't start and filled his role amazingly by the end
• Smith, who had a ton of defensive improvement throughout the year
• Williams, who didn't have a huge role

This year they're folding in new starters in Houstan and DJ, plus two of their first 3 off the bench in Moussa & whichever guard is coming off the bench. This is a super talented collection of players who are going to be a much better team after some more time. 

Three fixes:

- Swap Eli and Jones’ roles on offense.  Eli looked significantly more comfortable out of pick and roll.  He got basically wherever he wanted, he was able to score at three levels, and he can hit every pass.  The lack of shooting hurts but Michigan is hurt more by a lack of drive and kick game from Jones.  Eli can boost that.  Jones in comparison seemed  to struggle on ball.  He often had to turn his back to the hoop from 45 feet to deal with Seton Hall’s ball pressure.  His passing lacked juice and aggression.  As a passer compared to Eli he looks like Jake O’Korn compared to Wilton Speight.  But he did hit a big three and can slash.  Simplify his role, let him attack rotating defenses off Hunter post-ups, Eli pick and roll kick outs, and defenses overreacting to Caleb-Hunter DHO (btw, this needs to be emphasized more).

- Reduce Johns’ minutes with a combination of Williams, Houstan, Moussa at the 4.  If Houstan is a stretch 4 (personally, I don’t think that’s the solve as Michigan’s already struggling on the glass and he needs time in the weight room) play him there, Kobe at the 3 and we can get some real spacing.  T Will is no elite shooter but he’s shown himself to be willing and capable of shooting and slashing and when your team can only get 15 3’s up, you take that. And Moussa simply needs more minutes.  He’s a non shooter, but so is Johns and Moussa is more threatening off the dribble and on the glass.  And you can’t take Hunter off the floor for more than 10-15 mins per game.

- When Moussa is in the game, run.  Take the ball out of the hoop even in made baskets and run like hell.  But they can’t keep up with him in transition.  Trapping in half court seemed to work well as well.  Also, more PnR with Houstan (kinda like Stauskas’ role as a freshman) would be welcome too.  He might be the best passer on the team. Everyone will focus on the shooting and defense but he had 3 assists and 1 turnover; you’re lying to yourself if you think his struggles are the same or as likely to continue as Johns’

Like they say in football, the game slows down over time.  Right now the freshmen and Jones haven't stepped up to college (or P5) speed.  It'll come.

I like the thoughts of the first two commenters.  Reshuffle the minutes a little for a few games.

Good luck with the kids, Brian.

Good luck with the kids.

This was a game where UM played about as badly as they could offensively for long spurts and then made a series of dumb plays on defense and still almost won.  It's a young team, and they're figuring out their lineups as best as possible.  Johns is who he is, and maybe he'll turn it around but he's had years to do so and expecting this horse to morph into a zebra at some point feels unlikely.  Jones will get better; like Smith he's figuring out what he can and can't do at this level, but I think he'll be solid.  Houstan is a defensive liability who can't shoot right now, but it's also 3 games into a career so obviously more patience.  But otherwise it feels like a team that is going to be janky for a while before, likely, turning it on in conference play.  I'm interested to see how they bounce back against UNLV in a weird road game after midnight.  UNLV beat a bad Cal team so they've at least played a P5 program with P5-ish talent, and they're 3-0 as well.  I think they'll come out strong.

This team is going to take awhile to jell, longer than most expected. There's going to be a few losses to teams with experience and P6 level talent

Key will be to get the not-yet-dependable-but-experienced guys like Jones, Johns and TWill going, they should be ready to take a leap before the freshmen, as talented as they are, we have also seen how raw they are

The team will get it going, I trust in the coaching and the talent level, but simply not enough experience in general and time together because it's game 3

Great write up.  I had the same feeling about Brooks.  He also was the guy that calmly and confidently snapped a scoreless drought in the first half when M was stuck on 15 for a while when he drained a jumper.

One thing missing in this story arc is the fact that he came in as a confident freshman and won the starting PG role over grad transfer Jaaron Simmons and Sophomore Zavier Simpson only to lose it about 8 games later as Simpson came into his own.  Seems like it took him a year and half to get his confidence back.  I remember in the 2018-19 season saying that for some players its hard to come off the bench and know you're going to get 1-2 threes cold and you put so much pressure on yourself to make that one shot because you know you have to to get more minutes.  My guess is he had to work through that.

And he's been a great leader/glue guy/three and D guy but last night, yup, he was clearly one of the two players that were head and shoulders playing better than the rest.  I was like wow, Eli is a very good player right now.

As for the rest of the team here are my bullets (er, numbers/Deuteronomy):

1. I'm glad you brought up Oakland last year.  I thought about that game as well last night.  For perspective, that Oakland game was scored a 49 (out of 100) on Bart Torvik.  That is baaaaaad.  Luckily the opponent was so bad we escaped with a win, but Chaundee was 1-10 (!!!!!!) from three, Smith had 3 TOs and 4 fouls in a terrible 18 minutes.  It looked like the transfers weren't adjusting and I even wondered if the previous season was a Wile E. Coyote year and that Michigan had lost the Beilien discipline (they had 20 turnovers against Oakland!!!).

But it was a blip and the transfers adjusted and were just fine.  Michigan's game score last night was an 88.  It wasn't even a bad game.  They lost a close game to a good team.  It's ok. There's a lot of room for improvement like:

2. Jones needs to realize that he doesn't need to be a hero and get the steal, just play sound defense.  He'll adjust, the coaches are too good not to coach that out of his game.

3. Brandon Johns is a mess and clearly is who he is at this point, but given the depth at his position, I think it's easily fixable.  Juwan just needs to do the difficult thing and bench the senior.  Start Williams and put him on the opponents best wing player so you can hide Houstan a bit more the way we did with Duncan.  I'm also not as down on Houstan's defense as most.  He's a true freshman usually checking the opponents best player.  He's not ready for that yet but he'll be fine.

4. Speaking of defense, mannnn it's obvious that Hunter Dickinson is not going to be close to a viable NBA defender.  He allowed at least three layups to guards - guys a foot shorter than him! - that just took it right at him and he couldn't alter shots.  He has the Moe Wagner syndrome where he simply cannot contest shots. Sometimes I'm left wondering if the ball goes right through his arm as if he's a ghost because it's like how did that guy shoot over you?

What an incredible offensive player though.  And his size means he can keep posts away from the basket enough to do well on his own man, but wow, awful help side rim protector.

5. I get the Kobe Bufkin hype.  That guy is probably going to be an absolute star.  That drive he had for the layup and near and1 was eye-popping.  Remarkable athleticism and body control.  Between he and Diabate, there is so much potential.

The pieces of this team don't fit together perfectly right now. Namely, there's a lack of wing defense (losing all of Brown, Wagner and Livers hurts a lot) but theres a ton of talent.  And I still think Houstan could be adequate, and if so, he and Williams could be fine as wing defenders.  Maybe Bufkin emerges as well.  The path to truly elite is for those guys to improve and get more minutes and Johns to drop to a 10 min per game guy.

Houston will be a star as he gets older, but man, his game does not look great right now. 

"By crunch time there were only two players I wanted on the court, which is bad because basketball generally requires five."  In response to this assertion, I give you Coach Norman Dale.  "My team is on the court."  

Confidence is a weird thing.

We all know the Tom Brady Saga™ and see how he's a throwing, walking-almost-running embodiment of confidence. But what if he doesn't land in the right spot for him as a pro, if that pass in the snow playoff game was ruled a fumble? Does he still succeed thanks in part because of his confidence or does he become another one of those athletes drafted ahead of him who are left telling themselves and others that they too could have been stars?

Does Michael Jordan become MICHAEL JORDAN if he misses that shot in the NCAA championship? Does Jordan Poole become a major contributor as a pro if he misses that playoff shot?

How does an Eli Brooks emerge? Is he a unicorn or an example of how hard work, innate intelligence, strong background, and—yes—confidence combine in stellar play?

I'm worried about Houstan. All the hype about him was that he was a sharp-shooting, knock-down 3 point shooter... but his shot so far has looked way off... reminds me more of the way Franz shot 3's. An inconsistent stroke that leads to around a 30% 3 pt percentage. Hopefully it's just a funk and he'll snap out of it.

The only thing colder than Michigan's shooting last night was El Tri's flop at Iceteca in Edmonton.

That said, disappointing to look so flawed in specific areas, but there's a lot of room to grow here. Brooks and Houstan are still getting used to the environment and their roles in the team, and Kobe Bufkin is very early on. You have to hope/figure someone will emerge and really start to establish their role. At this point last season Hunter wasn't even starting.

BJJ is more of a concern because this is exactly what he was in his toughest stretches in previous years, except now he's playing starter's minutes and it hasn't really clicked for him. 

Yet, anyway. Yes, he probably is what he is. But Duncan Robinson was a "he is what he is" guy on defense as a senior and look what happened to him. 

Jones isn't jiving yet with the team, but he will eventually.  

I was begging for Eli to take over the PG duties from Jones about 10 minutes into the game.  As for Houstan, I can not remember the last time I watched a train wreck on defense like that.  But the good news is that it is fixable (I hope), and the young man clearly has a ton of talent.  Hopefully, he stops letting "the last mistake" create more mistakes.  It just appears that he is trying too hard to make up for it with a spectacular play.

Adversity early in the season is fine. Assuming this team learns from it -- and I think they will -- then it's OK. Just be ready with the right lineups, subs, and aggressiveness for Big Ten play.

I'm a deeply pessimistic person, and even I can't understand why some people seem to think the sky is falling already. It's college basketball. They're a young team, they don't have a lot of minutes together, they'll move on and get better. Thanks for the write-up!

Kids generally bounce back much faster than adults; hopefully yours are already shedding their illnesses and feeling better.

Before the season, one of the big risks called out for this team was that our outside shooting never came together.  Last night we saw what that might look like.

In the long run, I'm sure we'll be fine - talent will out, and we have the coaches to maximize it - but I foresee some rough patches while we work out a defensive rotation and balance out our outside shooters.

Houstan will improved markedly, it’s the older guys that are a concern.  Jones probably just needs to get comfortable.  I’ll bet he’s a high foul rate dude (for a guard) all season, but stuff like the 10 second call other moments where he looks lost will be become much less frequent.

I can’t justify starting John’s over Williams at this point.  Williams is younger and hence has more potential to improve (and help us again next year), plus he seems like a better shooter, which we need.  I’m not sure how much more we can expect Johns to develop, and right now he’s not consistently good/solid.  Williams at least has the potential to be that.  You can always give Johns more run off the bench if he’s playing well, which he is capable of.  
 

I know it’s temping to psychologize Johns and talk about maybe it’s about confidence or pressure, but that’s a fool’s errand.  For whatever reason, he just hasn’t played well.  Last night he was uncomfortable on the perimeter and frustratingly skittish under the basket. He isn’t a mid-range maven so that pretty much exhausts the possibilities.