Michigan basketball was the story of this weekend nationally for reasons unrelated to the players, which is a bummer because with two weeks to go, the players are fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives. They'll be without their head coach, Juwan Howard, for the remainder of the regular season after Sunday afternoon's brawl, leaving Phil Martelli to lead this team on their tournament chase. The final five games of the regular season over the next two weeks will be crucial in determining the position Michigan is in when the postseason rolls around in terms of the bubble: they could either head to Indy in good shape, knowing they need a win to feel good, or feeling like the season is more or less over. The stakes could not be higher. Today we're going to look at how many wins the Wolverines need in a bracketology breakdown: 

Where Michigan Stands Now 

Pulling up the bracket matrix at the time of this writing, the Wolverines are on the inner half of the bubble. They appear on 106 of 132 brackets (80.3%), so more in than out, but also not totally secure. Michigan is, along with Rutgers, UNC, and Memphis, one of the four teams in the picture that appear in the fewest amount of brackets but are still considered "in" on aggregate, which I guess could designate them "last four in". Indiana and Creighton are very close to Michigan as well, appearing in slightly more brackets. The average seed value given to Michigan is 10.57, so we're talking about either a 10 or 11 seed, very close to having to play in the play-in round. 

In terms of the team sheet, Michigan sits 34th in the NET rankings, which is very much the bubble. There are ~20 slots reserved at the bottom of the seed ranks (12-16 seeds) for the AQ bids given to mid-majors, meaning that the top 40-45 teams are in the vicinity of who can expect to be admitted to the tournament. The resume metrics are pretty similar ballpark, 42nd in KPI and 44th in Strength of Record, very much on the bubble. Michigan is looked at a bit more favorably by the efficiency metrics, which could help on the margins if the Wolverines end up having to be one of the last couple teams in. They are 28th in BPI, 32nd in KenPom, and 24th in Sagarin. In terms of the quadrants, Michigan is 3-7 vs Q1, 3-3 vs Q2, 4-1 vs Q3, and 4-0 vs Q4. 

In other words, if the tournament started today, Michigan would be in. But they would not be in with all that much breathing room, and while the efficiency metrics suggest Michigan is a better team than "last four in" caliber, their resume is not as strong as the underlying metrics. More importantly, the NCAA Tournament does not start today and so Michigan needs, at the very least, to continue to keep pace with the other bubble teams in the last two weeks. Ripping off a couple additional wins will do well to share up that position. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Assessing the bubble and charting the path forward]

This was a matchup of two bubble teams back in December [JD Scott]

Looking at the other teams on the bubble 

The following table is a collection of teams that are all right around the bubble on bracket matrix and some nuggets from their resume. The resume average and efficiency average columns are taken from Torvik. The former is an average of KPI/SOR, while the latter is an average of BPI/KenPom/Sagarin. I've also listed the projected record for each team via KenPom: 

There are a few things you should learn from this table. Perhaps most immediate is that Michigan has the most Q1 games left on the schedule of any team, which is a big deal we will discuss a little bit later. Secondly, you may notice that Michigan's efficiency average is very good relative to the competition on the bubble, while their resume is more in the middle. The third thing you should notice is the big kicker, which is the record of the teams, both overall and in the specific quadrant games. Michigan has the second-most losses of anyone here, and while they are a power conference team compared to some lesser conference squads like BYU/SDSU/San Francisco, it's still a higher number than fellow B1G squads Rutgers and Indiana. More importantly, Michigan's record in the Q1/Q2 games is not particularly stunning. Most of the teams here have combined Q1/Q2 records close to .500, or slightly below it. Michigan's sits at 6-10. The only team in a similar boat is Oklahoma, who are on the wrong side of the bubble right now. 

Rutgers is the fascinating team with their stunning 6-3 record in Q1 games being the saving grace despite the ugly efficiency metrics. Michigan, in some ways, is the reverse: good efficiency metrics for a bubble team, but a rather poor overall record and record in Q1/Q2 games. Another team with a resume that looks like Michigan is Indiana, but they are at least 16-10 overall. Only Memphis, Rutgers, SMU, and Indiana have such mediocre records in Q2 games, and Memphis has the advantage of being .500 in Q1 games, while Rutgers is well above it (and Indiana has more overall wins). And SMU, of course, is not a favorable comparison either (like Oklahoma), being on the wrong side of the bubble. The moral of the story here is that Michigan needs more Q1 wins, and more wins overall, because that is the area where the resume is lacking the most. The macro resume numbers are fine and efficiency numbers are good. Just need more cold hard wins, especially against good teams. No more moral victories. Real victories are needed. Thankfully they have chances to get them. 

Beating Illinois on Sunday would go a long way towards making it in [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

The Path Forward 

So we know that Michigan has five games remaining and a lot of them are big ones. Here's a table showing off those games, with what quadrants they fall into listed and win probabilities alongside it: 

Not just are four of the five games Q1, but the lone non-Q1 game (Rutgers), is also a firm bubble team! A few notes to stew on before we talk about how many wins Michigan needs in order to make the tournament. First of all, as Jerry Palm of CBS pointed out in his Bubble Watch piece, only one team in the pre-pandemic era made the tournament when they were less than 4 games over .500. Michigan is currently 14-11 (also bad news for 14-13 Oklahoma). Secondly, Michigan is in an interesting position because each of the games are so marquee. When bubble watch people talk about Michigan being in solid position, they are operating on the assumption that Michigan wins a chunk of these games. The Wolverines are in solid position because they still control a lot of their own destiny, with the ability to bank several quality wins... but winning the games to reach that destiny will not necessarily be easy. 

So, looking at this, I think one would argue that Michigan needs to win 3/5 to feel good going into the B1G Tournament. Doing so (which is the KP projected record, by the way) would mean winning at least two more Q1 games (2-2 at worst in those contests), and would put Michigan at 17-13 overall. Which would mean that a 1-1 finish in the BTT would leave Michigan at the magic four games over .500 target. Finishing at least 2-2 in the last four Q1 games wouldn't do much to help Michigan's record in those games overall (they'd still be four games under .500 vs. Q1) but crucially, it would give Michigan a whopping five Q1 wins. Right now, of the teams I listed in the bubble chart, only Rutgers has that many, and outside of them only Creighton and Oklahoma have the opportunity to get to that many hypothetically, based on the remaining schedule. That's where Michigan having such a back-loaded schedule plays into your hands. 

A win over MSU at Crisler would be another quality win [Campredon]

Going 2-3 makes the path a bit more treacherous. You'd be only two games over .500 overall entering Indy, and could be as bad as 7-13 in Q1/Q2 games. You'd still have the efficiency metrics by your side, but you'd know that you likely need two wins in the BTT to get in. On the flip side, 4-1 makes it so Michigan could arrive in Indy feeling like even a one-and-done result there could get them in. That's not the easiest lift given what games are on the schedule, though. And it goes without saying that a 1-4 finish likely makes the trip to Indy a "win the tourney and get the AQ bid or bust" scenario. 

Finally, when looking at the Big Ten Tournament, Michigan currently sits in 7th in the conference, which would have them facing Penn State in their first game. Here are KenPom's projected B1G standings: 

MSU, Michigan, and Iowa are all targeted for the same record occupying the 6-8 slots in the standings. Getting 6th or 7th is a pretty big deal because it's the difference between playing Indiana and playing PSU/Maryland/Northwestern in the first round. In other words, it's the difference between facing a fellow bubble team or a team you should beat. If Michigan enters the tourney having gone 3-2 down the stretch and gets the 6 or 7 seed, you're looking at a scenario where you simply need to beat a PSU/Maryland/Northwestern to feel good about Selection Sunday. If you go 2-3, then you need to beat an Indiana AND perhaps a Purdue or a Wisconsin in the next round. Not a great spot to be in! 

So all things considered, I think the path is pretty clear for Michigan to make the 2022 NCAA Tournament. Win three of these last five, and take care of whoever you draw in the first round (who you will likely be better than). Do that and you're (probably) in. But tripping up one extra time down the stretch requires more work in Indy. And of course, stringing off four wins late wraps it up before the postseason rolls around. All the marbles on the line here in these last two weeks.