we need more q1 wins

Michigan basketball was the story of this weekend nationally for reasons unrelated to the players, which is a bummer because with two weeks to go, the players are fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives. They'll be without their head coach, Juwan Howard, for the remainder of the regular season after Sunday afternoon's brawl, leaving Phil Martelli to lead this team on their tournament chase. The final five games of the regular season over the next two weeks will be crucial in determining the position Michigan is in when the postseason rolls around in terms of the bubble: they could either head to Indy in good shape, knowing they need a win to feel good, or feeling like the season is more or less over. The stakes could not be higher. Today we're going to look at how many wins the Wolverines need in a bracketology breakdown: 

Where Michigan Stands Now 

Pulling up the bracket matrix at the time of this writing, the Wolverines are on the inner half of the bubble. They appear on 106 of 132 brackets (80.3%), so more in than out, but also not totally secure. Michigan is, along with Rutgers, UNC, and Memphis, one of the four teams in the picture that appear in the fewest amount of brackets but are still considered "in" on aggregate, which I guess could designate them "last four in". Indiana and Creighton are very close to Michigan as well, appearing in slightly more brackets. The average seed value given to Michigan is 10.57, so we're talking about either a 10 or 11 seed, very close to having to play in the play-in round. 

In terms of the team sheet, Michigan sits 34th in the NET rankings, which is very much the bubble. There are ~20 slots reserved at the bottom of the seed ranks (12-16 seeds) for the AQ bids given to mid-majors, meaning that the top 40-45 teams are in the vicinity of who can expect to be admitted to the tournament. The resume metrics are pretty similar ballpark, 42nd in KPI and 44th in Strength of Record, very much on the bubble. Michigan is looked at a bit more favorably by the efficiency metrics, which could help on the margins if the Wolverines end up having to be one of the last couple teams in. They are 28th in BPI, 32nd in KenPom, and 24th in Sagarin. In terms of the quadrants, Michigan is 3-7 vs Q1, 3-3 vs Q2, 4-1 vs Q3, and 4-0 vs Q4. 

In other words, if the tournament started today, Michigan would be in. But they would not be in with all that much breathing room, and while the efficiency metrics suggest Michigan is a better team than "last four in" caliber, their resume is not as strong as the underlying metrics. More importantly, the NCAA Tournament does not start today and so Michigan needs, at the very least, to continue to keep pace with the other bubble teams in the last two weeks. Ripping off a couple additional wins will do well to share up that position. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Assessing the bubble and charting the path forward]