Scores from last week (home team listed second):

• Illinois 72, MSU 81
• PSU 86, Nebraska 83
• Indiana 63, Rutgers 74
• Iowa 57, Michigan 79
• OSU 67, MSU 71
• Nebraska 70, Illinois 86
• Northwestern 67, Minnesota 59
• Purdue 73, PSU 52
• Michigan 73, Indiana 57
• Illinois 74, Wisconsin 69
• Minnesota 74, Nebraska 78
• MSU 55, Maryland 73
• Iowa 73, OSU 57

This was a great week for Michigan, a bad one for Ohio State, and a brutal one for Indiana's and Minnesota's tourney chances.

The Standings

	Record			NET				KP/Torvik Avg			OFFENSE			DEFENSE
Team	OVR	B1G		RK	Q1	Q2		Nat Rk (chg)	Proj. B1G Rec.*		KP	BT		KP	BT
U-M	18-1	13-1		2nd	8-1	4-0		2.0 (up 1)	16-1		5th	6th		4th	8th
ILL	18-6	14-4		6th	8-5	4-1		6.5 (--)	15-5		10th	11th		17th	21st
IOWA	18-7	12-6		5th	5-6	6-1		5.0 (down 0.5)	14-6		2nd	2nd		59th	74th
PUR	16-8	11-6		21st	5-7	5-0		17.0 (up 4.5)	12-7		27th	34th		26th	31st
OSU	18-7	12-7		8th	7-5	4-2		7.5 (down 0.5)	13-7		3rd	3rd		81st	82nd
WIS	16-9	10-8		24th	3-8	6-1		11.5 (up 0.5)	11-9		36th	49th		7th	5th
MD	15-10	9-9		29th	5-9	1-1		28.5 (up 5.5)	10-10		29th	35th		27th	36th
RUT	13-9	9-9		32nd	4-8	4-1		28.5 (up 0.5)	10-10		59th	70th		14th	15th
IND	12-12	7-10		57th	3-9	5-1		40.0 (down 3)	8-11		46th	48th		42nd	52nd
MSU	13-10	7-10		77th	4-9	2-1		63.5 (up 5.5)	8-12		82nd	87th		50th	50th
MIN	13-12	6-12		69th	4-10	1-0		57.0 (down 7.5)	7-13		45th	47th		74th	76th
PSU	8-13	5-12		52nd	3-10	2-2		45.5 (down 7.5)	6-13		38th	44th		58th	67th
NW	7-14	4-13		87th	3-11	0-2		75.5 (up 2.5)	5-14		119th	117th		41st	54th
NEB	6-17	2-14		138th	1-11	1-4		102.5 (up 10)	3-16		209th	204th		40th	34th

*Torvik's projections no longer include postponed games.

Michigan's magic number for winning the title is down to one. Any M win or Illinois loss will wrap it up; the two just so happen to face off tomorrow evening. Both KenPom and Torvik not only project the Wolverines to win that game but also both MSU matchups to finish with the most victories in the conference despite playing only 17 of their 20 scheduled games.

Illinois Update: Signs Point to No Ayo, Brad Underwood Says Something Stupid

preparing to claim a title at 14-6, somehow [Campredon]

Even if Ayo Dosunmu returned from his broken nose tomorrow night after missing the last two games, the chances Illinois wins out and Michigan loses out are 0.2%, according to Torvik's title odds. Given that bleak outlook, it's sensible for the Illini to let Dosunmu completely heal before a postseason run, and it's looking like that's the plan. First, there's the early line for the game:

Early line has Michigan favored by 8.5 points against Illinois. I can't imagine that bodes well for Ayo Dosunmu's chances to play tomorrow.

— Dylan Burkhardt (@umhoops) March 1, 2021

Then there's this quote from Illinois coach Brad Underwood:

Illinois' Ayo Dosumnu (facial injuries) remains "day-to-day", per Brad Underwood.

Underwood on Dosunmu's status for the postseason:

"We're certainly hopeful of that. He's had every possible facial evaluation. We're not going to put him out there unless he's fully healthy."

— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) March 1, 2021

This is the right approach. Particularly in a year with a condensed schedule, any good coach is going to prioritize long-term health over short-term gains and be understanding when other teams face similar dilemm-- wait, what's that?

Brad Underwood sending some subs: "We’re going to honor the (postponed games) b/c we’re a member of this league. We’re not gonna be the teams that pick & choose what we play for whatever. We’re going to show up. I think it’s about character, & this team has a ton of it." #Illini

— Gavin Good (@itsallG_O_O_D) February 27, 2021

Beat them by 40, please.

There's no legitimate reason to be upset Michigan didn't force themselves to cram in 20 Big Ten games when they were effectively under state-sanctioned quarantine for two weeks. The Wolverines rescheduled the toughest game that was postponed, which was—yup—the Illinois game. They gave MSU back-to-back cracks at an upset. The games they didn't reschedule—hosting Indiana, trips to Northwestern and PSU—would've helped their chances of winning a regular season title. The reason not to put them back in was player safety.

Meanwhile, the gripe about Michigan's women's team returning earlier than the men needs context. Namely, the WBB squad already had three games postponed before the two-week shutdown. They've now been left off two straight NCAA bracket reveals of the top 16 teams despite having a strong argument for inclusion, and in the first reveal the committee specifically cited M's need to play more games to earn consideration for a top-four seed. They were under significantly more pressure than the men to return early and it certainly hasn't seemed to help the women's squad form that they did so.

It's unfortunate that Dosunmu isn't looking likely to play. I want to see Michigan smash Illinois at full strength. Winning more Big Ten games in three fewer total contests may have to do.

[Hit THE JUMP for the pettiest table I've ever made, updated bracketology, injury news, and more.]

Debating Izzo With Math

just look at all these weird guys [Campredon]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

Izzo's full quote re. the NET rating and margin of victory is below. It's true, Michigan State surrendered some large leads this year and it impacts the numbers.

That said, don't fumble the Purdue game and close out that victory in Iowa City ... and this isn't a conversation. https://t.co/F44NDH2L3C pic.twitter.com/RRdLMoc0RC

— Brendan Quinn (@BFQuinn) February 28, 2021

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

Okay, sorry, I have something more substantial for this than dismissive laughter. First, the Notre Dame game Izzo references: he put in his end-of-bench lineup—which features two current rotation players—with three minutes left up 77-59. They won by ten. They've had the chance to run up the score on one (1) other non-cupcake opponent, when Izzo emptied his bench with... one minute left in a 65-40 game after going on a 14-0 run against Rutgers. This cost them three points in the final margin.

Instead of cherry-picking examples, though, I wanted to dive into the numbers, just in case Izzo had a point in there somewhere. To examine this, I found each team's Human Victory Cigar: a guy they play only in blowouts, almost always a walk-on and often a coach's son. Michigan fans are intimately familiar: past U-M HVCs include Corey Person, Andrew Dakich (save for the bleak point guard injury years), and Fred Wright-Jones. CJ Baird's three-pointer against Texas A&M was an all-time Human Victory Cigar moment.

Is there a team that plays its end-of-bench units an outsized amount? There sure is. The program is even located in the state of Michigan. You're probably picking up on where I'm headed with this—the pettiest table I've ever put together (data via Hoop Lens, includes all games):

Team	Human Victory Cigar	HVC Offensive Possessions	Team Offensive Possesions	HVC%
Michigan	Jaron Faulds	29	1345	2.16
Michigan State	Steven Izzo	15	1584	0.95
Illinois	Tyler Underwood	17	1804	0.94
Ohio State	Harrison Hookfin	15	1674	0.90
Nebraska	Bret Porter	15	1769	0.85
Iowa	Josh Ogundele	15	1784	0.84
Northwestern	Eric Zalewski	11	1517	0.73
Minnesota	Hunt Conroy	9	1880	0.48
Purdue	Jared Wulbrun	8	1673	0.48
Wisconsin	Carter Higginbottom	8	1652	0.48
Maryland	Jade Brahmbhatt	7	1593	0.44
Rutgers	Luke Nathan	6	1587	0.38
Penn State	Taylor Nussbaum	4	1537	0.26
Indiana	Cooper Bybee	4	1732	0.23

Yes, Izzo almost had a point, since his team finishes second in percentage of minutes played by what he'd call Weird Guys, but it's a very distant second. Michigan is way beyond every other Big Ten team in percentage of Human Victory Cigar possessions; they're the only team to crack 1% and they're over 2%.

Any impact the bench mob has made on MSU's tournament resume pales in comparison to, say, that of losing by 18 at Maryland yesterday. Michigan, which passed Baylor for second in the NET rankings, certainly hasn't had any trouble overcoming this, uh, problem. Same with Illinois, Iowa, Ohio State...

Anyway, let's take a moment to appreciate the exquisite collection of names on this list, and also a few that just missed the cut: Benjamin Bosmans-Verdonk (Illinois), Nicolas Hobbs (Iowa), Aidan McCool (Maryland), Davis Smith (MSU), Jace Piatkowski (Nebraska), Elijah Wood (also Nebraska), Dom Martinelli (Northwestern), Jansen Davidson Jr. (OSU), and Walt McGrory (Wisconsin). We are truly blessed.

Final Week of the Regular Season Bracketology

Let's run this table back.

	BM Seed	BM Avg Seed	BM # of Brackets (out of 100)	Torvik Seed Proj.	Torvik At-Large Bid %
U-M	1	1.00	100	1	100.0
OSU	1	1.24	100	1	99.9
ILL	2	1.96	100	2	99.9
IA	3	2.72	100	2	99.9
PU	5	5.48	100	3	99.5
UW	6	5.80	99	6	98.5
RU	8	8.13	100	8	93.1
MD	9	9.56	99	7	94.6
MSU	12	11.48	58	F4O	17.1
IU	F4O	10.54	35	F4O	20.2
MN	—	11.60	5	—	5.6
PSU	—	—	2	—	0.4

Eight teams look safely in the field: Michigan, OSU, Illinois, Iowa, Purdue, Wisconsin, Rutgers, and a Maryland squad whose resume is better than you might think. Two floundering bubble teams, Minnesota and PSU, probably need deep Big Ten Tournament runs to get back into consideration.

That leaves Michigan State and Indiana. The Spartans are the last at-large in the Bracket Matrix field at the moment but that includes a number of projections that haven't factored in the blowout loss at Maryland. Torvik's projections have them on track to be the second team out of the tourney field, one spot behind the Hoosiers. The MSU-Indiana game tomorrow night in East Lansing is huge for both squads, especially since that's the best chance each has to get one more regular season win—MSU proceeds to their Michigan home-and-home while IU travels to Purdue.

Both teams have more work to do regardless of tomorrow night's outcome.

Injuries and Departures

Illinois isn't the only team dealing with injury issues. We watched as Jack Nunge exited the Michigan game with an apparent knee injury, and while he thankfully avoided another ACL tear, he's expected to miss the rest of the season with a torn meniscus. Iowa's solution to their sudden lack of a backup center in Sunday's 73-57 win at Ohio State was to play Luka Garza 38 minutes and use Keegan Murray as a very small five for the couple other minutes. We'll see how they adjust when facing a team with more size up front on Sunday against Wisconsin.

Tom Izzo may have one fewer rotation player to toss into the mix as guard Foster Loyer is considering surgery on a shoulder injury that continues to bother him. Rocket Watts has played more point guard minutes in his absence with mixed results while Josh Langford and AJ Hoggard have both seen an uptick in playing time.

Meanwhile, Fred Hoiberg's What If We Built the Whole Plane Out of Transfers strategy isn't going too well:

Nebraska's Teddy Allen is leaving the program, per release. Averaged 16.5 PPG and 4.7 RPG this season.

— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) March 1, 2021

Allen has often singlehandedly carried the nation's 209th-ranked offense as the most willing of the three-ish players on the roster capable of creating his own shot to actually do so. It's going to be hideous without him, though that'll only be for four more games this season, in all likelihood.

Updated Tiers

Last week's:

Tier I: Michigan
Tier II: Illinois, Ohio State, Iowa
Tier III: Wisconsin
Tier IV: Purdue, Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana, Minnesota
Tier V: Penn State, Michigan State, Northwestern
Tier VI: Nebraska :(

This week's:

Tier I: Michigan
Tier II: Illinois, Iowa, Ohio State
Tier III: Wisconsin, Purdue
Tier IV: Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana
Tier V: Minnesota, Penn State, Michigan State, Northwestern
Tier VI: Nebraska :(

Purdue jumps up a tier, Minnesota drops a tier, and other than some Tier II reshuffling the rest stays static. Anyone still got a gripe with Michigan being in their own tier?

This Week's Schedule

All times Eastern. Subject to change.

Tonight: Rutgers at Nebraska (7, BTN)
Tuesday: Illinois at Michigan (7, ESPN), Indiana at MSU (8, BTN), Wisconsin at Purdue (9, ESPN2)
Wednesday: Minnesota at PSU (7, BTN), Maryland at Northwestern (9, BTN)
Thursday: MSU at Michigan (7, ESPN), Nebraska at Iowa (9, BTN)
Saturday: Rutgers at Minnesota (noon, FOX), Illinois at OSU (4, ESPN), Indiana at Purdue (TBD)
Sunday: Wisconsin at Iowa (12:30, FOX), Nebraska at Northwestern (1:30 BTN), Michigan at MSU (4:30, CBS), PSU at Maryland (7. BTN)