Big Ten Reset: First Place Rutgers, Northwestern Beats State, Normal Stuff
So that was an eventful week. Some notable results from around the Big Ten since last week's post, home team listed second for each score:
- Rutgers 74, Maryland 60
- Minnesota 65, Illinois 92
- Ohio State 60, Purdue 67 (EJ Liddell sat out for OSU with mono)
- Gonzaga 99, Iowa 88 (neutral site)
- Louisville 48, Wisconsin 85 (UL down a high-usage starter but, uh, still)
- Butler 60, Indiana 68
- Notre Dame 78, Purdue 88
- UCLA 70, Ohio State 77 (Liddell back)
- Michigan State 65, Northwestern 79 (lmao)
- Illinois 88, Rutgers 91
- Saint Louis 82, Minnesota 90
Before the breakdown, let's look at the standings.
The Standings
KP/Torvik Avg | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | Nat Rk (change) | Rec (B1G Proj) | KenPom | Torvik | KenPom | Torvik | ||
WIS | 3.0 (up 4) | 6-1, 0-0 (14.5-5.5) | 10th | 8th | 3rd | 3rd | ||
ILL | 9.5 (up 5) | 5-3, 1-1 (12-8) | 7th | 6th | 35th | 36th | ||
IOWA | 10.0 (down 1) | 6-1, 0-0 (12-8) | 1st | 2nd | 82nd | 138th | ||
U-M | 14.5 (none) | 6-0, 1-0 (12-8) | 9th | 10th | 30th | 32nd | ||
IND | 14.5 (down 1) | 5-2, 0-0 (11-9) | 48th | 51st | 8th | 5th | ||
RUT | 19.5 (up 11) | 6-0, 2-0 (12-8) | 24th | 32nd | 15th | 21st | ||
OSU | 22.0 (down 1) | 6-1, 0-1 (10-10) | 8th | 9th | 44th | 75th | ||
MSU | 28.0 (down 7) | 6-1, 0-1 (9-11) | 14th | 25th | 51st | 45th | ||
PUR | 29.0 (up 10) | 6-2, 1-0 (10.5-9.5) | 20th | 39th | 38th | 30th | ||
PSU | 42.5 (up 3) | 3-2, 0-1 (9-11) | 37th | 40th | 49th | 39th | ||
NWern | 53.0 (up 13) | 4-1, 1-0 (8-12) | 71st | 54th | 43rd | 46th | ||
UMD | 54.0 (down 8) | 4-2, 0-1 (7.5-12.5) | 25th | 43rd | 63rd | 87th | ||
MIN | 54.5 (down 4) | 7-1, 0-1 (8-12) | 46th | 69th | 52nd | 51st | ||
NEB | 106.5 (down 3) | 4-3, 0-0 (4-16) | 143rd | 135th | 99th | 63rd |
Your biggest risers are Northwestern, Rutgers, and Purdue, which all saw double-digit bumps up the rankings. Michigan State and Maryland were the two teams to take significant plunges, falling seven and eight spots, respectively. Wisconsin has solidified their standing as the #3 team on both KenPom and Torvik and separated themselves a bit from the Illinois-Iowa-Michigan-Indiana-Rutgers-OSU-(MSU until last night) cluster of top-25 teams.
[Hit THE JUMP for MSU and Iowa defensive struggles, an impact mid-year transfer to a contender, and new tiers.]
First Place Rutgers
As we all expected heading into the season, your early candidate for Big Ten Game of the Year is Illinois at Rutgers.
For the moment, Rutgers now stands alone at the top of the conference with a 2-0 record. Yesterday's win over the Illini wasn't a shock in and of itself. The way RU got there, however, is not how they're supposed to do it: in a 91-88 barnburner that saw both teams score over 1.2 points per possession.
Ron Harper Jr. has gone from useful role player to non-Garza conference player of the year candidate; he had 28 points and nine boards in a scorchingly efficient performance against the Illini. Jacob Young added 24 points on 19 shooting possessions with four assists and three turnovers; he's no longer our beloved disaster artists but instead a solid senior guard.
Steve Pikiell's squad has been doing this mostly without Geo Baker, who's either been injured or ineffective to open the season (the latter for 30 minutes against Illinois). Pikiell continues to build his reputation as one of the best coaches in the country who's not at a blue blood program; what he's done in Piscataway in this short a period of time is astonishing. Rutgers isn't the conference favorite—that's still Wisconsin—but they're right up there in the group behind the Badgers and I don't think they're a team anybody is excited to play right now.
They Are Who We Thought They Were
While this site has collectively been skeptical of Iowa's potential Big Ten championship and Final Four chances despite their mountain of preseason hype, please don't confuse that with skepticism about their offense. Playing #1 Gonzaga, they crested a point per possession even though they shot an uncharacteristically awful 4/22 on three-pointers. Luka Garza scored 30 points and went 14/17 on twos. Jordan Bohannon still doesn't look the same as he did pre-injury and may need to see fewer minutes going forward; they remain the #1 or #2 offense in the country depending on where you're looking.
The defense, though? It's looking pretty Iowa-ish, and that's significant cause for concern. Must-follow film breakdown guy Eric Shapiro posted an extensive thread of Hawkeye defensive breakdowns; Gonzaga is a great team but it certainly doesn't have to be this easy:
I'm going to go chronologically, but I had to show this play first.
— Eric Shapiro (@eric_shap) December 19, 2020
This is an example of how not to play ball screen defense.
Connor McCaffrey doesn't force Suggs to use the screen. Suggs has a straight line drive to the rim & Iowa doesn't provide help. pic.twitter.com/MtuZ9n6n4t
Lack of timely help in halfcourt and problems matching up in transition were themes throughout. KemPom believes Iowa has a bad defense for a Big Ten team (82nd nationally) while Torvik believes they have an awful one (138th). Either way, it may hold them back from contending, particularly with Wisconsin fielding such a complete-looking, experienced squad.
Speaking of Bad Defense
I cannot stifle this laughter any longer.
Oh man. That felt good.
Last night, Northwestern's Boo Buie blew up for 30 points on 19 shooting possessions, while his MSU point guard counterparts, Rocket Watts and Foster Loyer, combined to score 11 on—hey, this worked out nicely—19 shots. The Spartans couldn't crack a 3-2 zone and desperately cycled through big men without finding a combination that worked with only Malik Hall playing at all effectively up front. Joey Hauser left the game with a banged-up knee for a bit because he got the worst of it while setting an exceptionally illegal screen.
Hauser started out standing over his right leg, classic form
He returned but didn't look very comfortable and missed a bunch of shots. Pete Nantz pulled down 12 defensive rebounds for Northwestern. It wasn't a proud day for the Spartan frontcourt. Or the Spartan backcourt, for that matter. We've got another Shapiro thread:
Tom Izzo called MSU's loss to Northwestern "one of the more inept performances in my 26 years."
— Eric Shapiro (@eric_shap) December 21, 2020
Let's watch some of the defensive clips that contributed to that statement:
This one really got the MSU coaches upset.
— Eric Shapiro (@eric_shap) December 21, 2020
Gabe Brown is guarding Kopp, who passes and sets a screen for Nance.
Brown seems unaware. MSU was switching some, but he neither communicates the screen nor is in a ball screen coverage to prevent penetration. pic.twitter.com/vP2sVKXeBC
State is now projected to go 9-11 in the conference by both KenPom and Torvik. Inshallah.
Hoosier Infusion?
Last week, Indiana beat out Arkansas, Kansas State, and Memphis for talented UT-Martin grad transfer Parker Stewert, who began his career as a productive freshman at Pitt before transferring to play for his father, who tragically passed away last month. He took on the role of high-volume gunner at UT-Martin last season and did pretty well with it given the surrounding talent, though it's worth noting his team was horrific on defense.
Stewart has two years of eligibility remaining—he impressively holds a masters degree already—and it's unclear if he'll be able to play immediately or sit out until 2021-22. The Indiana backcourt could really use his scoring punch.
Meanwhile, reserve big man Jarvis Omersa has opted out of the rest of the season for Minnesota.
New Tiers, Quickly
First, last week's tiers:
TIER I: Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois
TIER II: Indiana, MSU, OSU
TIER III: Rutgers, PSU, Purdue, Minnesota, Maryland
TIER IV: Northwestern, Nebraska
Yes, I immediately regretted putting Rutgers in the third tier. Let's try this again.
TIER I: Wisconsin
TIER II: Michigan, Iowa, Rutgers, Illinois
TIER III: Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan State, Purdue
TIER IV: Penn State, Maryland, Minnesota, Northwestern
TIER V: Nebraska :(
Let's see the games that'll blow up these tiers by next Monday. This week's most important games, all times Eastern:
Tuesday: Purdue at Iowa (9 pm, BTN)
Wednesday: Rutgers at OSU (4:30, BTN), Illinois at Penn State (6:30, BTN), Northwestern at Indiana (8:30, BTN)
Friday/Christmas: Wisconsin at MSU (12:30, FOX), Maryland at Purdue (2:30, FS1), Michigan at Nebraska (6, BTN), Iowa at Minnesota (8, BTN)
Saturday: Ohio State at Northwestern (2, FS1), Indiana at Illinois (4, FS1)
December 21st, 2020 at 2:41 PM ^
never too early to be making a claim for the conference Davison of the Year award
December 21st, 2020 at 2:45 PM ^
How did Gonzaga manage to get 10 games on their schedule (granted 5 of them were cancelled), including KU, Baylor and Iowa, before UM even plays its 7th game (with a stretch of 11 off-days), including a string of mid-majors? This is a team that needs to be playing as often as it can, to reach its potential.
December 21st, 2020 at 2:47 PM ^
They have enormous incentive to play those games because it's the only way they're going to get the high seed they want. A Big Ten team can just win the Big Ten and this year they're probably a top two seed even if the Big Ten cannibalizes itself to the point where the champion is 13-7 or whatever.
December 21st, 2020 at 2:52 PM ^
Given Michigan has a shot at the Big Ten title, we should be rooting for MSU to beat frontrunner Wisconsin on Friday....but seeing them start 0-2 is too sweet to pass up, Go Badgers.
December 21st, 2020 at 5:10 PM ^
I hear you. That game is a win/win for us.
December 21st, 2020 at 2:54 PM ^
If anyone wants a good laugh, I'd recommend taking a look at the whole Eric Shapiro MSU defensive lapses again Northwestern thread.
I'm honestly not shocked by MSU's struggles. This team is bunch of glue without anything to hold together. Have a bunch of good complimentary role players, but they're missing that Winston or Valentine to run the show
December 21st, 2020 at 4:57 PM ^
I wouldn’t laugh at MSU too hard. A bunch of glue guys with no clear go to player seems a bit like us. Liver and Wagner are both nice players but both still struggle to get their own via the dribble drive and that’s a glaring weakness of ours. If I’m an opposing coach, I really extend the D and force Michigan to beat me off of dribble penetration.
December 21st, 2020 at 5:16 PM ^
Extending the D creates one-on-one opportunities for Hunter. Are you sure you want to do that? Hunter is the one thing that MSU doesn’t have that we do.
December 21st, 2020 at 5:22 PM ^
Ypsi, I agree to some degree that we don’t necessarily have an alpha dog who can take over a game or get us that “no matter what” basket.
But we do have a nice PG in Smith and another guard in Brooks who can facilitate.
December 21st, 2020 at 8:03 PM ^
We have a go to post player
December 21st, 2020 at 8:03 PM ^
Double post
December 21st, 2020 at 10:14 PM ^
If you count Johns it's a Triple Post. LOL
December 22nd, 2020 at 12:39 PM ^
I too find that all the giggly snickering about the woes of teams like MSU and Rutgers has completely jumped the shark on this blog. It's one thing to be arrogant when you're kicking heads in, but it just becomes like a bunch of nerds playing Dungeons and Dragons when you're basically an also-ran like most everyone else. Let's learn some humility.
December 21st, 2020 at 2:56 PM ^
Neb vs Wisco is also on Tuesday the 22nd. Not exactly the most anticipated match up but figured I should point it out anyway
December 21st, 2020 at 2:59 PM ^
every iowa game looks like a layup drill. those dudes are brutal.
December 21st, 2020 at 3:01 PM ^
If Fran could find a Yaklich they'd be fucking terrifying though.
December 21st, 2020 at 3:03 PM ^
If Fran isn't self aware enough to hire a defensive assistant to sort out his monstrosity of a defense, then I don't think he ever will
December 21st, 2020 at 4:11 PM ^
I don't think it's that simple. Even if Fran hires a Yaklich, who on that Iowa team can actually play defense? Garza is athletically limited and a turn-style on defense, Bohannon has had 2 hip surgeries, Fredrick was a middling 3 star recruit who is 6'4 and has never dunked the ball in his career so clearly isn't athletic.
There are a few guys there who may be able to turn into passable defenders (Wieskamp, Nunge, Murray and Touissant could all be fine or good), but minus Wieskamp none of those guys are offensive threats. Yaklich was great, but he also had Teske, Z, MAAR, Matthews, Livers, Brooks, etc. to work with at Michigan, all of whom are probably better than Iowa's best.
Iowa could definitely be better on defense with a guy like Yaklich around, but I don't know that they're current roster would allow them to be anything better than average, if that. And if they fully committed to a defensive squad, their offense would crater. So while there's room for improvement, I don't know that they could ever hit that ceiling of terrifying people think they could.
December 21st, 2020 at 4:42 PM ^
That's the thing though, Iowa's offense is good enough to where they don't need anyone on their team to be an amazing defender or for their defense to go from #80 to top 25. They just need to be a top 50 defense and be good enough when they're playing a good defense or a better offense. An defensive assistant could 100% push that team into the "good enough" range
December 21st, 2020 at 5:49 PM ^
They're super long. I feel like if they just went full Boeheim (which they sometimes hint towards) they might be disruptive enough to let their offense carry them to 25-5 and a #1 seed.
December 21st, 2020 at 10:18 PM ^
Long but also slow laterally. Maybe with time they'd do that well enough but I've seen them try it and after a few possessions they become they sieve that they are most other times.
December 21st, 2020 at 3:13 PM ^
I can't watch Wisconsin. I hate it. I hope they lose every game.
December 21st, 2020 at 3:16 PM ^
A Wisconsin defender just threw himself in front of this post and fell down.
December 21st, 2020 at 4:29 PM ^
Indeed. Wisconsin can fuck itself with a rusty razor. Seeing them lose to Marquette last week was pure porn.
They’ll be tough as hell (and a pain in the ass) as always. Yes, they destroyed Louisville but I think that win is going to be milked as much as MSU’s win over Duke. This year’s Louisville, barely ranked, is nothing like the #1 ranked Louisville Michigan had to face on the road last year.
December 21st, 2020 at 5:15 PM ^
My sister-in-law lived in Madison for six years and I went to the basketball games at the Kohl Center in 2013 (Brust Shot) and 2014. Two great games but man was a I super pissed in 2013 and never felt better in 2014.
December 21st, 2020 at 7:41 PM ^
And I bet Wisconsin still has a player or two from those games on their team this season.
December 22nd, 2020 at 3:35 PM ^
i lived in janesville back in the early 90s and had a chance to go to a couple games at the old field house...including one night that ohio state came in #1 in the country and needed a jimmy jackson jumper at the buzzer to escape. then i got loaded and met suzy hamilton at some bar near campus. what a night.
mediocre-to-lousy teams, but boy, that place could rock.
December 22nd, 2020 at 12:46 PM ^
Does Wiscy still have that little gnome who likes to play speed bag on people's nutsacks?
December 22nd, 2020 at 3:37 PM ^
i have no idea who you're talking about, but the answer is almost certainly yes. they ALWAYS have a guy like that.
December 21st, 2020 at 3:14 PM ^
I know these Tiers are super official...opinion alert...If Michigan is in tier II, and Penn State is in tier IV, and we only beat them by 4 at home...
As Ace said, these tiers will change constantly. But if a tier II team beats a tier IV team by 4 at home (not that home court matters much this year), something needs to be adjusted there. Maybe an Austin Davis-less Michigan belongs in tier III.
December 21st, 2020 at 3:53 PM ^
Yes, the game vs. Penn State was close.
But, it's one game. You can't evaluate any team on the basis of one game. It's about the total body of work...and the performance over a longer period of time.
December 21st, 2020 at 3:58 PM ^
Weird, anomalous, things happen in sports sometimes. This early in the season, it's hard to figure out which events are trend and which are anomalies, so we need to rely on the eye test more than the actual outcomes in order to predict the future. Pointing to only the score of a single game as evidence of a team's strength or weakness is a fool's errand.
December 21st, 2020 at 4:08 PM ^
Meh - These aren't completely results-based at this point - there has to be some eye-test and projection given how few real games there have been. Otherwise Illinois w/3 losses wouldn't be in the same tier as M.
Also - as noted in the column - Wisconsin... the top team in the current ratings is projected to lose 5 or 6 B1G games. This conference is VERY good this year so any non-Nebraska matchup is not a gimme (see MSU v. NW -- Ha Ha).
December 21st, 2020 at 3:30 PM ^
NU beatdown of msu bonus: Boo Buie hook shot! @ 2:30
December 21st, 2020 at 3:50 PM ^
So 13-7 (ish) wins this meatgrinder, and if you finish at .500, you're doing pretty well.
Yikes, what a conference.
December 21st, 2020 at 3:59 PM ^
I can't remember if the B10 has ever been this strong, top-to-bottom. I sure hope the NCAA tournament works out this year... it would be cool to see 4 Big Ten teams in the Elite 8.
December 21st, 2020 at 6:23 PM ^
The Spartans couldn't crack a 3-2 zone
If only Ben Carter still had any eligibility left.
December 21st, 2020 at 6:54 PM ^
I don’t think he should be called “Rocket” Watts if he is going to play this poorly. His real name is Mark Watts and he is playing much more like a “Mark” than a “Rocket”.
December 21st, 2020 at 7:15 PM ^
I like the Tiers approach. Right about this time the past 2 years we were alone in Tier 1.
2018: big wins at Villanova (revenge game!) and home against UNC (Big10-ACC challenge)
2019: big wins in the Bahamas against Gonzaga and UNC.
These Tiers are gonna change...a lot.
December 21st, 2020 at 7:30 PM ^
The last time we were LOL'ing at MSU, their football team lost to Rutgers. We all know what happened the next weekend.
December 21st, 2020 at 10:23 PM ^
Almost like we don't learn. Never will.
December 21st, 2020 at 11:30 PM ^
Unfortunately would not be so quick to write off MSU. I swear to God Izzo has them throw games so he can “fix” things and people praise his brilliance. Just getting to .500 in the Big Ten will be very tough. Just hoping for a split with MSU and a .500 record in conference. Anything else is gravy.
December 22nd, 2020 at 6:32 AM ^
Rankings aren't standings, yo.
December 22nd, 2020 at 3:41 PM ^
Big Ten Tiers:
I: Wisconsin
II: Michigan, Iowa, Rutgers, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan State, Purdue, Penn State, Maryland, Minnesota, Northwestern
III: Nebraska :(
What a blood bath this conference is going to be.
December 23rd, 2020 at 8:25 PM ^
And down goes Rutger.
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