As JJ McCarthy stood in the raining purple and black confetti on the last day of the 2022 calendar, he knew (as did a lot more of us) that if the right people wanted to give it one more go, it could be magical. Yes, they blew a really big opportunity, but there was still a lot of eligibility to be had across the program. Sure enough, almost everyone with said eligibility wanted one more shot. They got it. And, oh boy, did they make it count. 2023-24 was supposed to be about football...and it was (I still have certain items on backorder). Michigan came together, pulled out some historic victories, and finally checked ALL of the boxes in what will be (probably, at least...in SO many different ways) the most memorable season of our lifetimes, winning the National Championship. "I thought this was supposed to be a hockey piece?" you ask? Well, it is...

The last time Michigan did that (1997-98, pre-Alex Drain existence), I was twelve years old. Charles Woodson won the Heisman Trophy and was only dreaming about winning a Super Bowl, making the Hall of Fame, and waving the M flag on the Fox set after beating Ohio State multiple times in a row. What else happened that next Spring? Michigan Hockey won their last National Championship. Bill Muckalt, Mark Kosick, Josh Langfeld, Mike Van Ryn...oh, and some goalie named Marty Turco knocked off the #1 team, North Dakota, at Yost in one of the most famous Michigan Hockey games ever. They followed that up by defeating New Hampshire and the hometown Boston College Eagles to win the ultimate prize. Boston College, you say? Interesting. Well, that seems coincidental. Okay...

The time previous time...back in the Fall of 1947 (PRE-CRAIG ROSS!!!), Michigan Football led by Fritz Crisler's Mad Magicians of Bob Chappuis, Bump Elliott, and Al Wistert, et al, rampaged their way through the season, playing only two close games and pummeling Ohio State and USC in the Rose Bowl by a combined 70-0. Despite finishing 10-0, that team was denied a National Championship officially. So, they followed up that season by winning another nine straight games, including a stomping of Ohio State in Columbus, finishing the season #1 and winning Back to Back the National Championship(s). In between those glorious falls (the Spring of 1948), Michigan Hockey built on the success of the football program by going 20-2-1, winning their first ever Hockey National Championship. Gordon McMillan, Wally Gacek, and Al Renfrew led that team...with Connie Hill tallying a hat trick in the national semifinal against none other than...Boston College. Re-he-he-heally??

 

From Frozen Fours past [Patrick Barron]

Some Background

The last couple of years in this particular space I wrote about the history of Frozen Fours I fondly remember from the days of yore. Tales of Kevin Porter, Chad Kolarik, Carl Hegelin, Shawn Hunwick, etc. Even adding yarns about Cooper Marody and Quinn and Josh. If you start with my freshman year at Michigan as my first REAL year as a Michigan Hockey fan (I mean, kinda true...it was the first year I went to a game -a 2-0 win over MSU by the way), Michigan went to the Frozen Four in years #5, #8, and #15. That's 3 times in 15 years. Not ideal for a blue blood and the program with the most National Championships in college hockey. Now, they've gone in years: #18, #19, and #20. That's three times in three years. Very different. It's raising the bar, setting a higher standard, and maybe bringing back the days of old? Between 1992-2003, Michigan went to NINE Frozen Fours in twelve years. Okay, we're not there yet, but if you don't count the year that didn't have a tournament, we're up to four out of six. That's very close to half way...

So, if we're not going to reminisce, what are we going to do? Well, who are these guys? What even is this year? First of all, Michigan returns many key pieces from last year's very good team (not THE piece, but whatever). Their top six scorers all were significant players on last year's team (Brindley, Rutger, Dylan Duke, TJ Hughes, Casey, and Nazar). They also brought in a few transfers, grad and otherwise: Marshall Warren, Jacob Barzcewski, Tyler Duke (brother of Dylan), Josh Eernisse, and Chase Pletzke. That's a new thing for Michigan. Finally, they added three contributing freshmen: Nick Moldenhauer, Garrett Schifsky, and Tanner Rowe. Okay, that seems...plausible?

[AFTER THE JUMP: Game breakdowns]

[Bill Rapai]

Well, it wasn't. Johnny Druskinis didn't make it to the start of the season. Jackson Hallum played in just nine games (registering three goals and eight points, mind you). The defense was a defensive disaster. The penalty kill was unwatchable. Leads in the third period evaporated like Michigan Basketball wins. The longest winning streak heading into 2024 was...two. WOOF. Actually, if you don't count the Stonehill games (care to weigh in, Alex?) their longest winning streak didn't hit three until March 9th. LOLWUT. How would they even make the tournament?

Well, after a collapse in Hockey Valley on Saturday, February 17th...it was a very real possibility that they would not. While the team was clearly improving and play was getting cleaned up for the most part, just enough things went wrong circumstantially to overrule the gains by the team overall. Random? Maybe. Just missing something? Maybe. 

Then, Michigan swept Notre Dame at Yost for the first time since 1996-97. They went to Minneapolis and split (okay, OT). Finally, they backed up those weekends with another home sweep of ND (TWO TIMES IN THREE WEEKENDS?) and a second awesome performance in Minneapolis to secure their NCAA bid. After a ridiculous ref show frustrating OT loss in East Lansing in the Big Ten Championship Game, the Wolverines went to Missouri and played their two best third periods of the year in their two biggest games of the year against arguably their two best opponents of the year. Someone is growing up...

 

Last time the Frozen Four was here [Patrick Barron]

The Four in St. Paul

(1) Boston College, (1) Boston University, (1) Denver, (3) Michigan: In a world where this Tournament has turned into a massive Plink-o-fest over the course of the last 10-20 years, is that becoming a thing of the past? Are we actually starting to weed out the weaker teams, again, and only have the giants remaining for the sport's most visible event? On top of that, this crop is the Bluest of Blue Bloods. The top three programs in Frozen Four appearances are here: Michigan (28), BC (25), and BU (24). Denver is sixth all time (19). That pretty much happened last year, too (#1, #3, #4, and Quinnipiac). And in 2022: #1, #4, #6, and Hayden Fox's Screaming Eagles. I definitely enjoy an upset as much as the next fan, but in the end, seeing the best players and best teams play high level games for trophies is What The People Want. Plus, Boston getting its revenge on Minnesota for populating their Frozen Four, after Minnesota did that to them a couple of years ago? Narrative, drama, AND the sport's elite players and teams? Once again, the sport has already won.

• Michigan. The last couple of Aprils, Michigan has come into this weekend with expectations through the roof. Arguably, they had the best team in 2022. Non-so-arguably, they had the best player in 2023. In 2024, neither of those things are true. Now, despite being the #10 overall seed, are they also a Top 5? Now? I would argue yes. I don't think it's stretch to say they're better than Minnesota and Wisconsin. Maine? Paper Bears. They literally just beat North Dakota and Michigan State. Q-Pac? If Michigan and Quinnipiac both play to their ceiling, who are you taking? Right. Unfortunately, they're probably not better than...
• Boston College. Hoo Boy. These guys are loaded. They also do most everything well. They also do not apparently lose hockey games. And they don't play many close games! Their goal differential is +92. In 39 games. They are the true embodiment of The Hawks. They have the best Line in college hockey. They shoot 14% as a team. They get .924 goaltending. Alrighty, then.
• Boston University. If Super Eagles didn't exist, the Terriers would be the best team in college hockey, and they would be looked at in a similar fashion. After a slow-ish start to the season, BU's record against non-BC teams is 18-2-1 after December 1st. In that span, they are 1-3 against the Chestnut Hillers. Macklin Celebrini IS the best player in college hockey, boasting an Adam Fantilli-esque 32-32-64 in just 37 games. Insane. They also have a Mini Makar in Lane Hutson. And solid goaltending. That's rather reminiscent of '22-23 Michigan. Not too shabby.
• Denver. Every year, the Pioneers are never the best team but always a top 3-5 team. Once again, here they are. They don't have the high end WHIZ-BANG of BC (mostly 2nd, 3rd, 4th rounders) or the individual star power of BU, but they have scoring depth in waves for days. Like North Dakota, last weekend, Denver is a good ol' fashioned college hockey team. No one-and-dones (probably). They just have a lot of very good college hockey players up and down the roster. Their one knock was sub-par goaltending. That also now appears to be a thing of the past. Matt Davis has now saved 70 of his last 72 shots and 151 of his last 160 shots faced. Uh-ohhhhh...

 

[Bill Rapai]

(3) Michigan vs (1) Boston College

Team	Corsi Rank	PP%	PK%	Players Drafted	Skaters >.75 ppg	GAA	Save%	Record in last 5 games	KRACH Prob of winning
Boston College	21	30%	89%	12	7	2.20	.922	21-2
Michigan	13	35%	78%	10	7	2.81	.909	6-1

Things Michigan Needs to Do Against Boston College (because David is trying to steal parts from the full preview on Thursday):

1. Score First. Okay, while this is usually a goofy, anti-analytics talking point, it does feel like trying to chase BC in a potential score-fest is rather inadvisable. If Michigan can get the lead, stay in the game -maybe even get a nice bounce or second goal, things begin to look a lot more favorable. I don't think either team is planning on sitting back and being overly defensive, but upping the pressure on the favorite and maybe forcing their hand a little bit could yield some positive chances. The whole building will most likely be a Pro-Blue crowd. Building on that environment would be a welcome addition. 

2. No Mistakes. This goes without saying. BC is going to create chances. In fact, they don't even need great chances to kill you. They have elite-level shooters who don't need a wide-open looks to score. Four skaters are shooting 18% or higher...on volume. That's absurd. Michigan has had their brain-dead breakdowns all too consistently all season (albeit not quite as many recently), including one that was the difference in the game for the first couple periods against North Dakota. If you want to beat the Super Eagles, an almost perfect game is required. If they snipe or lucky-bounce you to death...okay. But to give yourself a chance, there can be zero freebies.

3. Super Barzo. Oh hey, to win a big game, you need a great performance from your goalie? Duhhhh. Like I just said, though, BC doesn't need an A+ chance to score. If Michigan wants to be in this game, let alone win in, Jacob Barczewski is going to have to back up his performance in Maryland Heights with possibly an even better showing on Thursday night. Making Grade A Hero saves has not always been his calling card, but it will need to be against BC. Everyone on the ice is going to need to have a great game, and that starts in Michigan's net.

Final Thoughts:  I mean...look. Boston College is the better team. They're the best team. Five losses all year? Yikes. But this isn't a seven game series. It's not even a three game series. It's a frickin' one-off! Finally, this works to Michigan's favor! While the Super Eagles do seem unbeatable, there are some positives. Their corsi percentage is not as high as expected. So, controlling the puck is in play more. BC also generates a ton off the rush. Michigan has been really good in the last few weeks of limiting OMRs. Also, G Jacob Fowler finally looked human against Quinnipiac. Can Michigan win this game? Absolutely. Is it also a likely event, though? Probably not. I would not be dumbfounded if Michigan gets to play two games in St. Paul. I would be surprised, though. Michigan will mostly likely have to play a perfect game and easily their best game of the season to do so. Boston College, while having to play well, has a lot more room for error. In the end, it's been a really good season for Michigan, highlighted by another end of season boon and Frozen Four run. However, this is another year of the better teams winning. Boston College plays for the Title.

[Bill Rapai]

Peter's Take: Boston College got their wakeup-call in the first game of the Providence Regional against Michigan Tech. The Huskies played the Eagles tough through 2 periods and only trailed 2-1 going into the 3rd with the shots even at 21. BC showed why they have been ranked at the top of the polls throughout most of the season and kept attacking in waves, which resulted in them scoring 4 goals on 17 shots to win the game. In their Regional Final B.C. found themselves in a battle against Quinnipiac after falling behind 2-0 before the game was 2 minutes old, but they managed to fight through the Bobcats' relentless defense and take a 5-4 overtime victory.

In arguably the toughest Regional of them all, Michigan demonstrated what team defense and good transition play can do, as they had a strong 3rd period outscoring the law firm of Persson & Pehrson, um, I mean North Dakota 3-1 in the period to skate away with a 4-3 victory. In the Regional Final against Michigan State, the Wolverines were able to extract revenge for their OT loss in the Big Ten Tournament Championship game. They did this again with strong team defense and excellent transition play, especially in the 3rd period where they outscored the Spartans 4-1 to win 5-2. For Michigan to upset the favored Eagles, they will need to employ the same strategy of being defensively sound and limit Grade A opportunities and when transition opportunities arise, they will need to cash in on them. Jake Barczewski will also need to make the saves he can, and probably a couple he normally can't! The question is, will this be enough, and unfortunately I think the Maize and Blue will come up short as the offensive depth of BC will be too much to overcome.

Alex's Take: This one is an uphill battle for Michigan, a hell of a test for a team that has come a long way over the course of the season. I'm going to keep it brief because you can read the rest of my thoughts in the game preview tomorrow, but Michigan is going to need to be sound defensively, get an exceptional goaltending game from Jacob Barczewski, and let your top-end scorers cook. I expect this to be a high scoring game... with BC's offensive talent, it's likely going to take four goals and any victory will probably only be by one. I picked in Michigan's favor the last two years in the national semifinal so this time I'm going for a reverse jinx and will take BC. 

 

This 17 year old Vancouverite is why Boston U is in St. Paul [BU Athletics]

The Other Semi-Final:

(1) Boston University  vs (2) Denver

Team	Corsi Rank	PP%	PK%	Players Drafted	Skaters >.75 ppg	GAA	Save%	Record in last 5 games	KRACH Prob of winning
Boston University	25	28%	79%	14	6	2.37	.915	9-1
Denver	15	23%	78%	12	8	2.48	.911	10-1

David’s Take: Another whopper. Both teams are pretty even overall. Both teams are super hot, winning many of their games, especially in the second half of the season. DU has had another phenomenal season, slightly masked by playing so far out west and having to compete against both Boston-based teams for narratives and the limelight. This game feels like it will come down to One vs Many. Michigan felt a little bit like that last season. Last year, Adam Fantilli was oh-so-close to scoring a second goal (bottom of the bar) and a power play assist (Rutger's too low shot) in addition to his goal. That's a lot to put on one guy in one game, though. Unless Celebrini completely takes over, it does feel like Denver's depth will eventually wear down the Terriers. Now that Denver's goaltending has gone from weakness to strength, the Pioneers do seem like the better team. Another year, another time DU slides out of the shadows to steal the narrative. They bake the city of Boston's dream of an All-Beanpot National Championship Game in Minnesota.

Peter’s Take: Boston University won in straight sets, 6-3, 6-3 (oops wrong sport) in Sioux Falls. In the first game against RIT they never trailed and cruised to the victory. In their second game, they faced a bit of adversity when they found themselves trailing 2-0 in the first against Minnesota but managed to score a late goal to pull within one. Their dressing room walls must have looked like scorched-earth after the intermission as they came out in the 2nd period and scored 5 of the next 6 goals and sent the Gophers back to their hole in Minneapolis.Perhaps the biggest surprise of the opening weekend wasn't that Denver won the Springfield Regional, it was how they won it. The highest scoring team in the nation scored a total of four goals in the two games, with the first one going to double OT, but team defense was what propelled them to St. Paul.

The big unknown for Denver is if their offensive leader, Massimo Rizzo and his 1.57 points per game, will be back in the lineup against BU as he's been sidelined with a lower body injury since early February. Rizzo's strength is puck distribution and setting up teammates for goals, something that they missed in the regional. We will be watching the top scoring team in the country, Denver, battle the 3rd highest scoring team in the nation in Boston U. with the difference being a half-puck per game. Defensively BU is slightly better keeping the puck out of their net 2.4 to 2.8 goals against per game. In this game I'm inclined to go with a couple of old sports idioms, "what have you done lately?" and "good defense can beat good offense in one game". With that being said, I'm going to give the edge to Denver and predict they will advance to the Final on Saturday in a close game.

Alex’s Take: I've been going back and forth on this one. I wasn't impressed by BU in the regional, a game they arguably should've lost if Minnesota gets a much better goaltending performance. Denver on the other hand was impressive in their ability to win a low-scoring, defensive game. That makes me lean towards Denver, but Macklin Celebrini may just have one more trick up his sleeve to will the Terriers forward. Denver may be more well-rounded, but I'll take BU's high end talent, Celebrini and Hutson, to put the Terriers over the Pios in an overtime thriller. 

 

[Patrick Barron]

OVERALL PREDICTIONS/Rationales

Is It Okay If Michigan Does NOT Win Both Games? Yes. This year it is. While expectations at Michigan are always high and banners and titles are Why You Stay, having the expectation of beating two top three teams in three days or calling it a bust is absurd. I said it before: Michigan can beat BC. They can also back that up and beat BU/DU. If that happens, it will not be David beating Goliath. BUT...top to bottom, I think Michigan is the fourth best team left at this point. They've been REALLY GOOD in the last month+. But look at the other three teams. So has everyone. This is an absolutely STACKED Frozen Four. In some ways, it's really unlucky for BC that they also draw these three opponents, being the #1 overall. So, that being said, it is not the expectation and necessary result that Michigan go win two games. The one thing I do wonder, though, is now that all of the pressure is off and they are the hunter instead of the hunted...will they might just go win both?

Who Wins - David: This feels a little bit like the Maryland Heights Regional, where there are multiple good teams that could all win it. Alex and I talked about it being a 30-30-30-10 percentage breakdown. This kinda feels the same, again, with Michigan reprising the role of Western Michigan over Easter Weekend (the 10%). Not only would they have to put up the massive result of knocking off the best team in the country, they'd have to back it up with an equally impressive performance against a team that's almost but not quite as good. That's a really tall task. Possible? Yes. Probable? No. In such a stacked mini-tournament like this, it's hard to go against Boston College. They're too complete, too elite, too weakness-free, too good on special teams. You have to hope for puck luck or a less than stellar performance from the Eagles. Otherwise, they're the favorite. Will they win? Maybe not. Hockey sports are unpredictable and random, especially in one game. But do they have the best shot? Yes. BC Super Eagles fly highest. Let's go, reverse jinx...

Who Wins - Peter: This should be an entertaining matchup as both teams are loaded with players whose names will be mentioned frequently on NHL broadcasts for many years to come. Denver will give the Boston College all they can handle, especially in the first 20 minutes. But the young Eagles, with a core group that has just experienced the pressures of winning a World Junior Championship a few months ago, will be relentless and will skate away with this year's National Championship. ​

Who Wins - Alex: I've projected the BC/BU Beanpot rematch national title game. If this comes to pass we better have Matt Damon, Bill Simmons, and Ben Affleck in the crowd to ensure the Boston Overdose. A maximally insufferable final for those with strong Midwestern Values but the talent on display will be excellent, no doubt about that. This is BC's year, they are the best team in the country over a forty game sample. They've generally owned this matchup, 3-1 against BU with a +7 goal differential in the season series. They bombed the Terriers 6-2 in their most recent meeting (the Hockey East Tournament final). Unfortunately for them, recent history tells us that if it's your "year", you don't win it all. Michigan didn't in 2022. Minnesota didn't last year. It's hard to beat another really good team four times in five tries. BU pulls the upset and Celebrini puts a stamp on his NCAA legacy.