Win Total Recalibration, along with Seeding
With beating MSU this afternoon, Michigan has the signature win that Brian here at mgoblog and Dylan at umhoops have been pining for. As mentioned in the post above we are now at 16 kenpom. How would you recalibrate the win total, and the seeding?
So far, our record is 15 - 4, with 4 - 2 in the conference. Looking at the remaining schedule, the only loss I feel confident in predicting is Purdue. I suppose randomness means one more defeat beyond that. That would leave Michigan at 25 - 6 total, 14 - 4 in the Big 10.
- W vs. MD
- W @ Nebraska
- W vs. Rutgers
- L @ Purdue
- W vs. NW
- W vs. MN
- W @ NW
- W @ Wisconsin
- W vs. Iowa
- W vs. OSU
- W @ PSU
- W @ MD
Well sure, I've been drinking the koolaid, and am drunk on the win today. But Livers has really come on. With Livers starting, I don't really see a weakness in our starting unit. Poole is still improving, as is Teske. With the two of them and Robinson, we have a solid bench.
As far as our opponents go, Maryland and Minnesota are now crippled with roster losses. Northwestern has reverted to form. And I really don't see a loss to Iowa or PSU. The hardest game left besides Purdue would be OSU, but I think they will come back to earth, and beyond Bates-Diop, I don't think they have the depth to stay with Michigan. Plus, Michigan is now devising a better plan to deal with the switching.
I also see Michigan winning at least a couple games in the Big 10 Tournament. And if they continue this way, I see a much higher seed for the NCAA tourney, maybe a 4 - 5 seed.
Anyway, what's your take?
January 13th, 2018 at 7:14 PM ^
January 13th, 2018 at 7:16 PM ^
January 13th, 2018 at 7:19 PM ^
I could see a loss there ultimately costing us a Big Ten title. Didn't that happen in 1994?
January 13th, 2018 at 7:26 PM ^
That, coupled with the collapse at Crisler against Purdue in the season finale.
January 14th, 2018 at 7:44 AM ^
January 13th, 2018 at 7:37 PM ^
I don't think we'll win the Big 10 regular season title unless we do even better than what I predict. Purdue and OSU are two games up on Michigan. Looking at OSU's schedule, they can lose away to Purdue, and to Michigan. But they'd also have to lose to another team or two for Michigan to catch up. NW? PSU? I don't think so. They already beat MSU, and don't face them again.
Regarding Purdue, we'd definitely have to beat them on the road. And they'd have to lose to MSU on the road. But we'd still have to win all our games to just pull even with them. Again, don't think that'll happen.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:16 PM ^
Prolly like a five seed but a really long way to go with possible injuries and all.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:17 PM ^
January 13th, 2018 at 7:17 PM ^
I don't want to write off that Purdue game. We know we can play with them.
I feel like we'll probably have a couple off nights coming up but yeah . . . looking at that schedule, we could go on a run.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:21 PM ^
January 14th, 2018 at 1:22 AM ^
but they probably won't shoot as poorly from two (15-36). They missed a lot of bunnies such that I thought it probably evened out with their good 3pt shooting.
That's going to be a really tough game in a really tough place to play. Purdue is the best team in the conference, and I've been saying that for a while. I thought we had a good chance at MSU, and I think our chances are much longer at Purdue.
We're playing really well though, and other than FTs from two of our three starting guards, I don't know what other weakness we have. Wouldn't count us out.
January 13th, 2018 at 8:01 PM ^
January 13th, 2018 at 7:18 PM ^
January 13th, 2018 at 7:18 PM ^
January 14th, 2018 at 1:27 AM ^
when we got screwed against Purdue at home. Had to have that one. Purdue has a very easy schedule remaining. They don't go to OSU, they only play MSU once. They're projected to go 16-2 and I wouldn't be surprised if they go 17-1. As much as I like our team, we aren't winning out.
We're playing for a top 4 seed and a (near) home weekend to start the tourney at LCA. We'll get that if we go 14-4 in the conference. It'll be tough, and I'd say we're more likely to go 13-5, but certainly can get to 14-4.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:18 PM ^
January 13th, 2018 at 7:39 PM ^
MD is out two starters, iirc. I predict they will crater. PSU and Nebraska, I think Michigan is better and tougher, and less likely to geck up games on the road this year.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:50 PM ^
January 14th, 2018 at 1:33 AM ^
we'll probably lose three more road games:
almost certainly Purdue
and then two of Wisc, Neb, PSU, NW, MD.
Road games are hard. We'll have a couple off nights. Even the national runner up team lost @PSU (who were bad).
Gotta win that home game against OSU and if we do, I think we run the table at home.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:19 PM ^
January 13th, 2018 at 7:22 PM ^
January 13th, 2018 at 9:08 PM ^
January 13th, 2018 at 8:25 PM ^
January 14th, 2018 at 1:34 AM ^
the committee doesn't factor in the last game.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:25 PM ^
cost them 1 or 2 more games than you project, but if the growth pattern continues they could earn consideration for a 4/5 line and look to be a tough out in the tournament.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:43 PM ^
January 13th, 2018 at 7:32 PM ^
January 13th, 2018 at 7:41 PM ^
Why is the game on Monday anyway? Big Ten games aren't usually that day.
January 13th, 2018 at 8:34 PM ^
January 13th, 2018 at 9:55 PM ^
So now you have Big Ten regular season games on Monday and Friday nights. Michigan has two Monday games this season, in two days against Maryland and two weeks later against Northwestern (both are home games).
Thanks, Jim.
January 13th, 2018 at 10:44 PM ^
January 14th, 2018 at 1:37 AM ^
we're still cramming games in. Today was the start of 4 games in 8 days (Sat, Mon, Thurs, Sat).
I can't remember us ever playing two weekday games in between two weekend games.
Kind of worried about @Nebraska on Thursday after this tough three game stretch we're in the middle of.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:35 PM ^
the next one.
Not too much koolaid now.
Don't get to high, don't get to low.
Go Blue.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:35 PM ^
January 13th, 2018 at 11:40 PM ^
We should be ranked around #20 on Monday, which would put us in line for a 5 seed.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:38 PM ^
put at Nebraska in the W column..they are very good at home...a Win there and I will drink the koolaid
January 13th, 2018 at 7:49 PM ^
While the TVs in the toilet stalls are undeniably an aid to Nebraska, we've never lost in that building.
January 13th, 2018 at 9:11 PM ^
January 13th, 2018 at 7:43 PM ^
The Fox broadcast showed Schwab's current projection of Michigan as an 8-seed in the Tournament, which if they manage the 23-8 or so record now predicted on some analytics sites is something I would say feels about right. I would go with 7-9 because of what will be a lack of impressive wins save for this and maybe if we do beat Purdue away. Still, I think we'd be a very dangerous 7-9 seed if we keep playing like this.
January 13th, 2018 at 8:20 PM ^
I really want a better seed than 8 or 9. That puts you against a one seed the first weekend. I think probably there are 4 or so teams (1 seeds) Michigan will be hard pressed to beat. The later we face them, the better. On the other hand, it would be very cool to be a 9 seed and take out a 1 seed. I am not a stat nerd, but I'm sure that hasn't happened very often.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:50 PM ^
January 13th, 2018 at 8:03 PM ^
January 13th, 2018 at 8:24 PM ^
January 13th, 2018 at 8:51 PM ^
January 13th, 2018 at 9:08 PM ^
The Big Ten was better that year though.
January 14th, 2018 at 10:31 AM ^
January 13th, 2018 at 8:55 PM ^
a pretty good team. That said, I think we beat them at home.
January 13th, 2018 at 9:15 PM ^
game by game outcomes against teams is stupid. it's not football. not even close. sparty was supposed to run the table in the BIG. look at their schedule right? i said they would likely lose 3 games. not because i'm a genius, but because it's hard to win on the road in the BIG, against anyone, even rutgers.
it's easier to pull an upset in basketball. one hot shooter can do it. we saw it today with wagner. hell, golden state has lost 9 games and i'm guessing they have been favored in just about every one of them.
if UM can go 12-6, i will be ecstatic. i was hoping for at least 10-8 at the beginning of the year.
January 13th, 2018 at 10:42 PM ^
January 14th, 2018 at 12:32 AM ^