September 16th, 2017 at 7:26 PM ^
Will be very interested to see the spread.
September 16th, 2017 at 7:28 PM ^
We'll see a version soon enough.
September 16th, 2017 at 7:29 PM ^
This Boilermaker blowout helps us with ranking and playoff committee
September 16th, 2017 at 10:05 PM ^
September 16th, 2017 at 8:24 PM ^
September 16th, 2017 at 8:33 PM ^
The lesson here is don't bet on Michigan.
September 16th, 2017 at 9:10 PM ^
September 16th, 2017 at 9:15 PM ^
but you don't want to bet the 50/50 plays, I guess. I'm not a gambler but I'd guess you want to look for teams Vegas is often wrong on and bet those. Vegas basically gets Michigan right, apparently.
September 16th, 2017 at 9:31 PM ^
Correct. And betting as a Michigan fan ON Michigan, you're likely going to go with the opinion "I bet they cover that" more often than not.
September 16th, 2017 at 10:39 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 2:02 AM ^
Winning 50% of the time means you lose money, because the bookie or casino takes a cut of every bet.
September 17th, 2017 at 9:20 AM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 11:03 AM ^
September 16th, 2017 at 11:23 PM ^
If there are teams that "Vegas is often wrong on," that information would get out immediately and the situation would correct itself. If Michigan had gone 25-1 ATS over that period, the oddsmakers would have been increasing the line over time to compensate. I'd expect that if you looked up most teams, you'd find that they go about .500 ATS.
There's no surefire strategy to win at sports betting, or everyone would use it.
September 16th, 2017 at 11:56 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 1:10 AM ^
And that's why they would care if Michigan were 1000-0 ATS. The sharps would eat them alive.
The oddsmakers can't afford to be so far off to begin with that they're making it all up in line movement, because, if they are, they expose themselves to big money coming in and throwing things off.
September 17th, 2017 at 12:22 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 12:10 AM ^
hitting only 50 percent of your bets puts you in the red.
September 17th, 2017 at 12:44 AM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 1:14 AM ^
No, hitting 50 percent of your bets would leave you about 4.5% in the red, depending upon the vig. For betting against the spread, it's most common for the vig to be 10% -- bet $55 to win $50. (You'll see this written as -110). So, if you bet $55 ten times, you'll be up $250 on your wins but down $275 on your losses. Out of your original $550, you'd have $525 left -- down 4.5%.
September 17th, 2017 at 1:22 AM ^
casinos take a commission on sports bets. if you win 50% of the time, you will be losing money
September 17th, 2017 at 1:22 AM ^
casinos take a commission on sports bets. if you win 50% of the time, you will be losing money
September 16th, 2017 at 7:28 PM ^
September 16th, 2017 at 7:48 PM ^
September 16th, 2017 at 8:36 PM ^
September 16th, 2017 at 9:12 PM ^
September 16th, 2017 at 9:35 PM ^
Lazy ass defense didn't even score this game. Fire everyone.
September 16th, 2017 at 9:49 PM ^
Yeah, this was a team that didn't break 4.5 yards per play against Louisville, and Missouri may well have the worst defense in the country amongst P5 teams. Michigan's worst offensive output of the year (today's game against Air Force) was 5.6 ypc. I get Purdue is putting up good numbers thus far, but they haven't come close to playing a team like Michigan.
September 16th, 2017 at 10:28 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 5:46 AM ^
September 16th, 2017 at 7:28 PM ^
September 16th, 2017 at 7:29 PM ^
September 16th, 2017 at 8:42 PM ^
I think Michigan is going to have to score 30+ to win this game and I don't know if they can do it. If they play like they did the last two weeks, they are going to lose.
September 16th, 2017 at 8:51 PM ^
September 16th, 2017 at 8:52 PM ^
They won't be putting up 29 points on us so we won't need 30. The sky is always falling with this fan base. Purdue is much improved and Michigan will still win.
September 16th, 2017 at 9:16 PM ^
September 16th, 2017 at 9:57 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 12:58 AM ^
Last week vs Cincy gave everyone some reason to be nervous, but the overall performance today was solid. This was always going to be kind of an ugly game.
September 16th, 2017 at 9:44 PM ^
Don't get me wrong, I think Michigan will probably win, but I just don't think its the slam dunk we all thought it was to start the season. Instead of being like a 95% chance to win, I'd say its more like 66% or so. Couple of coverage busts, a couple of bad offensive errors like we've seen the first three weeks, they could get to 28pts pretty easy.
So yeah, sorry for not being uber-specific and saying Michigan will need 29+ to win this game. Figured y'all would get the point if I said 30.
September 16th, 2017 at 10:30 PM ^
September 16th, 2017 at 9:53 PM ^
They also didn't look good against Louisville. They are better than they were under Hazell, but people are acting like Drew Brees is under center. They averaged 4.4 ypp against the Cardinals, and I don't see them having much success against Michigan either.
September 17th, 2017 at 6:05 AM ^
Mizzou is clearly THE worst team in the SEC and one of the worst teams in the country. The clock management alone at the end of the half screams that their HC is way over his head. Brady Hoke would be like Vince Lombardi compared to what they have in place. They need to clean house asap.
Purdue on the other hand looked good in all phases. I bet if they did Draftegeddon over, there might be a few more Purdue players chosen. This will be an interesting game and certainly no gimme. Purdue also hung with Louisville for most of that game a couple weeks ago.
September 16th, 2017 at 7:29 PM ^
September 16th, 2017 at 8:24 PM ^
September 16th, 2017 at 8:49 PM ^
And it will be interesting to see how Michigan does when the opposing team actually has an offense.
September 17th, 2017 at 10:19 AM ^
Air Force's offense is good-ish and UM stufed them outiside of one long pass play which usually happens against triple-option teams.
Purdue will be a completely different challenge but I think UM's defense will be fairly effective. The real problem is the offense which looks worse every week (Hire Borges?).
I agree that this game went from a Rutgers-type LOL laugher to an Indiana-type collar puller. I still expect UM to win but won't be completely shocked if they lose a close game like I would have been before the season started.
September 16th, 2017 at 7:30 PM ^
Does seem to be a good test next week. Hopefully, pressure makes diamonds and we see the offense take a step forward.
September 16th, 2017 at 7:31 PM ^
It will get our guys' attention.
September 16th, 2017 at 7:34 PM ^
It kind of helps that it is on the road, but in an environment that is not very hostile. Get some of that Jerry World focus back.
September 16th, 2017 at 8:11 PM ^