Athlon B1G Preview
Some observations:
- Nothing too crazy in their justification of Michigan's top 10 ranking. I do think it underplays the value of good o-line play, especially where they rank the o-line top five in the conference.
- Speaking of ranked units, Michigan is in their top five for all but LBs/DBs.
- Ohio State, which pretty much graduated everyone from their secondary, gets a top ranking for their DB unit. Bold stuff.
- No mention of Michigan State's offseason from hell. They expect State to go bowling.
- DPJ suggested by all three contributors as freshman of the year, which sounds like a definite possibility given his talent and Michigan's needs.
- Michigan sweeps the breakout player of the year--but it's not the same guy.
- Ohio State beats out Wisconsin for the B1G championship.
- Michigan finishes 3rd in the East, behind PSU and OSU.
Considering how much talent we're replacing this year, I can totally justify us being anywhere from 5th to 15th in the rankings.
Hopefully we don't hear too much complaining about disrespekt when some writer ranks us 9th.
I can't wait for this season to start. I'm so sick of the overblown PSU hype. Barkley is amazing, I'll give them that, but their OL is garbage and McSorley just hurls the ball in the air. Anyone who watched the USC game could see that. I think a lot of people will be surprised when they drop 4 games.
I'm suspicious that their magic season was possibly a Michigan 2011, Notre Dame 2012 type of season.
A lot of things went right that you can't count on repeating.
I totally agree. Barkley is great, but McSorely = Arm Punts.
The '16 OSU game put them on a roll. Give them credit for taking advantage of the momentum.
If McSorelly makes major improvements, they could be worth all of the hype they're getting. If he doesn't, they will lose 4 games this year.
Four losses would actually be an okay season for Penn State. I realize their insane fan base thinks they are going to win the national championship. But I look at this schedule and see four very difficult games (at Iowa, vs. M, at OSU, vs. Neb) and five more that Penn State should probably win but could easily lose, especially if the particular opponent is better than expected in 2017 (Pitt, IU, at Northwestern, at MSU, at Maryland).
penn state gets two weeks to prepare for us.
they are lucky MSU decided to explode otherwise that would be a rough 3 week stretch of games
PSU @ Iowa was originally on Oct 14. Both schools agreed to move it.
A bit similiar to the 2016 PSU @ U-M game originally scheduled for October 15. That was of course moved to September 24.
Ohio State is going to smash their face. I think we are a 50/50 game. They will be laying it all out to beat us because they are aware of the face-smashing they will receive the following week, and it is home game, white out, etc. etc. That is a coin flip. At Iowa and at NW could be tricky. Indiana at home could be a classic look ahead situation. I think they will soundly beat State and Nebraska. Pitt at home should not be difficult.
4 games is pushing it. I think 9-3 or 10-2 is most likely with the aforementioned face-smashing that takes away a lot of the "luster" from whatever record they finish with.
don't think they are as good as a lot of people think nationally, but I also don't think they are as overrated as most people do here. Too much of our opinion is based on head to head with us last year. We were playing our best football of the year and they were playing their worst, and had significant injury issues as well. USC was pretty damn good last year, most people think the best 3 loss regular season team in the country and Penn State went toe to toe with them. I think they are solid.
I'm probably super biased here because I absolutely LOATHE PSU, but all I remember from the Rose Bowl was McSorley arm punting it up over and over with USC's DB's inexplicibly getting beat by the PSU WR's over and over - with some nice runs by Barkley sprinkled in. I kept thinking there's no way they can sustain an offense like this the entire game and it didn't stop until the very end. Seemed more like not as much PSU going toe-to-toe as much as USC defensive backfield blowing it over and over with PSU pulling magic out of there butt almost the entire game. But again, I'm probabably letting my hatred cloud my interpretation of those clowns.
I mean I think we can all concur that Penn State is super gross. I stipulate to that. And if it was just the USC game alone last year I would agree with you - not enough to go on. But Wisconsin and Ohio State were both pretty damn good last year and to go 2-0 vs. them, even if they were aided by an improbably blocked field goal, is still saying something.
I agree with you there. I could see a random loss somewhere in there, but I think their most possible losses are us and OSU. I can't see more than 3 losses, but hell, I thought they'd lose 6 games after getting thumped by us last year. Hoping Franklin overthinks things and helps us sneak out of Happy Valley with a win.
I don't think PSU is playoff-good this year, but I look at their schedule and really only see @OSU as a game where I'm pretty confident in saying they'll lose. OSU will be out for blood in that game, and its in Columbus. Other than that, their schedule isn't Murderers Row.
@Iowa will be tricky, and Harbaugh has shown that he can fully castrate a Franklin-coached team. If we were at home or neutral site, I'd take us 10 out of 10 times. But winning @ Happy Valley at night is a very tall order. I do not think PSU is an elite team, but I could still seem them going 10-2 even if they lose to us and OSU.
I think their offense is more dynamic than people are giving it credit, but McSorley was a 58% passer last year (and that was due in large part to huge numbers in his last three games). He'll be more consistent another year in the offense, but he still strikes me as a high-risk/high-reward QB, and with question marks on their offensive line that is a recipe for some bad throws that get picked off. Plus, their defense is still a question mark. This was a defense that somehow gave up 31 points to Wisconsin and 52 to USC. It's not a given that they'll be demonstrably better on that side of the field either as they have to replace their 2 leading sack generators on the line and a solid safety. It's a talented team, but this feels a bit like PSU is going to be like the inverse of what they were under Franklin early on, which were these all-defense, no-offense units. Now, they'll score 30+ points and give up a bit under that on average.
I'm trying not to gaze through my maize and blue glasses, but this is a team returning just 5 starters from a 3-9 team that also had a mass exodus offseason and is having crisis after crisis going on in the athletic department. And all those guys who graduated or left the team (or went to prison) aren't being backfilled by talent.
I guess I could see 6 wins, but I could also see a fantastic implosion where they go 3-9 again and Dantonio 'retires'
I'll assume it is addition by subtraction for them. Cut out the cancerous parts of their locker room and the players left can beat BG, WMU, IU, and Rutgers. Then they should be competitive against Minnesota, Northwestern, and Maryland. 6-6 could happen for them.
That's interesting. I'm crazy confident that IU is going to smoke MSU this year. That's a game that I'm looking forward to.
MSU could be 2-4 at that point. Losing to IU would put them at 2-5 and probably an irreversable tail spin.
I'll have my popcorn ready.
New coach for IU and lost their OL coach. I think IU falls off the cliff. We'll see this fall.
Right now I have MSU at about 20% chance of winning 6 games. But 80% chance of winning 4. BG, WMU, and Rutgers are sure wins for them. Then I expect they'll have a good chance at beating IU in EL, Minnesota. Northwestern is up and down so I don't know what to expect. Maryland in EL will be tough for MSU but I'm not sold on DJ Durkin. Especially after seeing Don Brown do what he did with essentially the same defense.
It's gotten so ridiculous that I can see them rallying together in an "us against the world" mentality, which they are quite good at.
I actually think they will have a much better season than people think.
And I don't care. Just so it is not at our expense.
Let Penn State worry about Sparty's circle-the-wagons attitude.
"Michigan State returns just five starters but played a handful of young players that gained valuable experience last season."
The problem with this thinking is that most of them are gone.
Corley - gone
Likusa - gone (this is a huge blow for their OL)
King - gone
Robertson - gone
Lyke - gone
Tyson Smith - stroke, questionable to return
Some who fit that description: Lewerke, Higby, Chewins, Bacie, some slow white guy safeties. They were all OK. Lewerke showed poise and some lack of accuracy in precious few attempts. Chewins I like, but he's still too thin - probably another year away, but he's playing now due to absolute need.
6-6 feels about right to me. They were a garbage fire last year, but they also had some bad luck in close games. Most years they don't lose to to Indiana by 3, Illinois by 4, Maryland by 11. It sort of depends on how they finish those first 4 games against WMU, BGSU, ND, and Iowa. If ND bounces back, WMU keeps a bit of that Fleck magic, and Iowa plays frisky, they'll probably limp into the Michigan game 1-3 and their season could fall off the rails. But I feel like this is the type of team that goes 3-1 with a "big" win against ND or Iowa and pick off your Rutgers, Indiana, NW, and/or Maryland to get to 6.
I want PSU.
To complete my thought, I want PSU thrown out of the B1G and their football program shut down by the NCAA. On account of decades of facilitating and covering up the rape of children.
/ never gets tired of sounding that horn /
Spring game performances can be ephemeral. Worth noting, though, that virtually every piece of chatter from Michigan practices gushed about how good Black was. How much that translates to the field is unknown, but there's certainly room for a couple of freshmen to emerge and Black is making a play for it.
The really relevant stuff starts in five or six weeks.
They are giving PSU way too much love. The OSU secondary is just as suspect as ours. Both talented and inexperienced.
(a) struggle occasionally on the road.
(b) be good by the end of the year.
Someone know anything I don't know? Why is he getting "top newcomer" from all 3? Assuming this category is only for transfers?
Predicting PSU loses to either Pitt (week 2) or @ Iowa (week 4).
Bill Connelly put up his Northwestern preview just an hour ago. The team has quite a bit of talent, and the dominoes may be lining up in order.
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/6/27/15864518/northweste…
Every single prediction I've seen has Wisconsin winning the West. And Northwestern plays in Madison.
But they won there 2 years ago, and they have a rather favorable schedule. Win in Madison, and they're probably a minimum 7-2 in the B1G. Given the head-to-head and that Wisconsin has other loseable games on their own schedule (e.g., hosting Michigan), a 7-2 Northwestern could easily win the West.
If Northwestern makes it to Indy, whoever goes from the East will literally have a home game with 95% of the fans in attendance.
has a 4 game season. Beat florida, psu, wisc, osu, and you are in the playoffs.
Extremely bold.
"
- Nothing too crazy in their justification of Michigan's top 10 ranking. I do think it underplays the value of good o-line play, especially where they rank the o-line top five in the conference."
They always seem to do this, IMHO.
a must win for JH? I feel like it is..no?
This is the year when we suffer the consequences of poor OL recruiting under Hoke and the relatively low quality of the transition year class. We are going to be young and lack depth at key positions, whereas OSU will have more depth and experience almost across the board.
It is possible that we beat them, but it is not likely. And this is entirely understandable.
ugh going 0-3 to start the rivalry....yuck. Haters going to come out from the caves in full force.
Now I figure 5-7.