Vegas Win Projections for B1G 2015 Season
http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/120177/projecting-the-b1gs-win…
Summary: Vegas has Michigan at 7.5 wins this season
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A lot of people already did. The line opened at 7.5 minus -125 under and has moved to minus-135 over. And that was two days ago, so it might be higher now. So when it opened, you could bet $100 on the over and win $125. Now, you need to bet $135 to win $100.
Either you meant the line started at +125 or you don't understand how betting works.
No, that's what happened.
Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines opened at 7.5 minus-125 under and attracted early action on the over, according to CG Technology vice president of race and sports Jason Simbal. By late afternoon, Michigan's win total was 7.5 minus-135 over.
It says -125 on the under to -135 on the over. Thats a big swing. He's right, you're wrong
No OSU, MSU, Michigan or Penn State (I think), you may want to reconsider.
In their Big Ten schedule, they play a grand total of two teams Vegas thinks will have a winning record.
Iowa - 7.5 wins
@ Nebraska - 8 wins
Purdue - 4 wins
@ Illinois - 4 wins
Rutgers - 5 wins
@ Maryland - 4.5 wins
Northwestern - 6 wins
@ Minnesota - 6 wins
This is why Vegas is filled with nice shiny casinos.
The roadtrips to Lincoln and Minneapolis might be tough, and Northwestern is always pesky. There could be two losses in there.
I definitely think the Nebraska game could be a loss, but you'd be looking for a good upset for their other loss. In that Minnesota game, you'd likely be betting on a 6-5 Minnesota team to upset a 10-1 or 9-2 Wisconsin team.
"one or both"....which means it is a perfectly set line. Its not a no brainer either way.
Sure they open against Bama, so count that as a loss. But they'd still need to lose two games to finish 9-3 and for you to win that bet. Which two teams on that schedule are going to beat them?
I posted Vegas' win total odds for those teams above, but none of them are expected to be tough teams. Especially Maryland (4.5 wins). Sure they might lose to Nebraska, but I don't think they lose three games total.
And Wisconsin is built on shaky QB play. Doesn't matter who is back there, all they do is run, run, run. Corey Clement is no Gordon, but he's still pretty good.
Maryland is being incredibly overvalued by many on this board because of their overall record last year and finishing "3rd" in what ended up being a very top heavy division.. Reality is when they played the 3 real teams on their schedule they not only lost but were demolished - MSU, OSU, Wisconsin. They played patty cakes with a bad UM team and that was what their team was. They won some close ones and could have been 5-8 just as easily as 7-6 or whatever they ended up being. They lost their starting QB and stud Wrs. And they were not that good on offense when they had them when facing competent defenses. They lost to rutgers at home, barely beat a 4-8 USF and were demolished by a ho hum Stanford team in a bowl.
All that said 4.5 seems damn low. But I see a 6ish type win season as Maryland goes on being Maryland.
Someone like @Minnesota is going to be a lot tougher game for teams to deal with then @Maryland.
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7.5 is the perfect line for Michigan. OSU/Sparty are probably viewed as losses with Utah, PSU, BYU, and Minny as toss up games.
Agreed.
Here is a pug:
Harbaugh!
Nice couch.....
that seems about the right starting point. Would venture to say if the line proves to be wrong, it's more likely to be too low than too high.
This is much more likely to be a 9 win team than a 6 win team. Still, I look at our talent, with essentially no proven impact players, no proven stars, and it's hard to project more than 8 wins at this point. We've had plenty of teams that went into seasons with more talent on paper and didn't win more than that.
Seems about right. I really feel like the schedule sets up for 8-9 wins.
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Try the Venetian (Cantor Gaming)
runs a majority of the major hotel books.
Yes, even with that mess last year we could have easily had 3 more wins.
It does not take an epic amount of improvement to get us to 8 wins. A steady Rudock could do that alone.
It will take a significant amount of improvement to get beyond that though. We will need to be able to run the ball like we have not in years to get there.
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For your sake and everyone elses, I hope you aren't down 2 mortgage payments.
Oh boy... hindsights 20 20 for last year of course, but yeah, lets fix the problem by trying the problem again.
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