The 'Genius' of JH Recruiting
Many Michigan fans are mystified by the current recruiting strategy of taking so many low-rated (or unrated) players at this early stage in the process. ‘Does JH know what he is doing?’ ‘Why not wait, as you can scoop up these guys later if the bigger fish don’t come on board.’ Even those of us who totally trust JH must admit to being a bit boggled when he took the 2 star DE; notwithstanding that he had worked him out personally at camp. However, when you look at the numbers - in light of Harbaugh’s track record - his madness makes more than just sense... it is genius.
The Numbers:
2015: I believe that we will take Jhonny Williams as a transfer so will need to make some room to get down to 85. That should be no problem with the rumored medicals and other natural attrition.
2016: It looks like we are going for 25 recruits (#Fab 25)... or even more. There are 15 - 16 spots open at present which means that 10 or so more are expected. We do not name names on this site (and I fully agree with that policy), but looking at the roster it is fairly easy to see where the 10+ openings will come from. Medicals, un-offered 5th years and transfers for PT or other reasons could open at least 25 spots for the 2016 class. In fact, 28 (the league maximum if you have at least 3 early enrolees) is a very plausible number. This makes the spate of offers - and the less-than-sexy commitments - more understandable.
The bottom line is that JH is Confident that with his track record, and an EUTM, he can spot the right kind of athletes and mold them into Winners. To get 25 - 28 of those guys you can't sit on your butt waiting for high rated prima donnas to sign your dance card. This is why the 'Swarm' camps were such a stroke of genius. They gave JH the opportunity to see athletes from all over the country up close and personal. All of the ones who checked out as potential winners were offered. Never mind the star ratings of the armchair experts; one of the best talent evaluators in all of football worked these guys out in person. There is absolutely no way that he could have seen the vast majority of these kids if he had just waited for the Michigan camp... Genius!
We've got the Right guy in the Right Place at the Right time... Enjoy!
Seems like a bit of a disservice to the Rivals/247/Scout/ESPN staff to call them armchair experts. They're busting their asses watching tape and going to watch kids play in person, too. And as we all know, star rating actually does correlate pretty strongly with college and pro success on an individual level and on a team/aggregate. So they must be doing something right.
That said, I hope very much that you are right and that Jim Harbaugh is the world's greatest diamond-in-the-rough finder. Trust in Harbaugh. Harbaugh.
We all want Harbaugh to compete with Ohio State, and we need to recruit to that goal. Harbaugh has lots of coaching accomplishments, but he did not lead Stanford to a Pac 10/12 title in 4 years. Shaw made it their in year six, after arriving with Harbaugh. So, would we be happy with no Big Ten title for the next 5 years? I think not. What has surprised me, so far, is we have not recruited any true difference makers. Particularly at the QB position, we have good but not great recruits.
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Dude: he's only been here six months. WTF do you expect? I trust Harbaugh 100%. I think the real surprise this year is going to be how much he gets out of the people who are already on the roster.
Many on this board have blind faith-Harbaugh. I would speculate that Ohio State has 3 QBs currently on their team that are all better than the 6-7 currently on our roster and the ones we have coming for 2015 and 2016 classes. That is a concern to me.
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Not so sure about your statement that the OSU 3 QBs are better than what we have. How good a QB is depends not only on their skill, but on coaching and how well the people around them execute.
Urban Meyer is a very good coach. We also have a very good coach I think you're going to be in for a pleasant surprise.
So, which Michigan QB would you feel is better than first team all Big Ten Braxton Miller, JT Barrett and Big Ten and National Title winning QB Cardaoe Jones? Just curious.
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Ohio St has 3 QBs better than any QB on the roster of 95% of the teams in College Football. I don't understand the point you are trying to make.
QB recruiting concerns me. We have brought in or recruited 6 QBs through recruiting and transfers. Not one looks to as good as our main rival's third string QB. Clear now?
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What did you expect Harbaugh to be able to do in the limited time he has been able to practice with the players? Was Andrew Luck supposed to suddenly appear? It takes time. Braxton Miller is a SR, Jones a JR, and Barrett was a hell of a find.
The QB position will be a big question mark this year, but I guarantee it will be a solid position in the future.
Harbaugh is the greatest finder of talent, on the one hand. On the other hand he needs more time. Sorry, he is getting the big bucks and needs to find the next great UM QB. For many years(maybe since Troy Smith), OSU has had better QBs. As long as they continue their recruiting success they will be hard to beat.
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He's gotten 2 pretty highly rated QBs so far, and if you don't think Viramontes is a future difference maker then I dunno what film you were watching. QB recruiting is quite honestly the least of my concerns with Harbaugh.
But, I can observe that none of the Pac 12 schools offered this California QB. That says quite a bit.
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Colorado and WSU offered.
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You can't judge talent, but you can judge the job that Jim Harbaugh is doing judging talent, and despite his years of proving that he can judge talent you are skeptical or maybe you believe he forgot how to in the last 6 months. Sound logic.
And now it gets better, you also believe that the coaches as every Cal Pac12 school can also evaluate talent better than JH can... and the evidence you use for this is a kid that has played how many snaps of college ball? hmmmm interesting. This is great stuff.. keep it up, its like a comedy show for my lunch break.
I'll grant you that our transfers aren't as impressive as their guys, but you can't compare recruits to guys who have been in a system for years. After a cursory check at rivals, it appears Cardale Jones was a 3 star recruit. All of Harbaugh's guys were/are at least that highly rated as recruits.
Also, quarterbacks don't compete against each other, so it's pointless comparing ours to theirs. It's a team game and it starts with great coaching, which we now have.
Feeling better now?
cheers
However they've wallowed under a middling MAC coach who didn't develop them whatsoever so it would not be fair to any of them to judge them against the likes of those 3 who've been coached by the guy who made Tebow into a Heisman.
That said, I'll take the potential upside for Morris, Rudduck and Malzone over all 3 of Urban's guys in the long term. In other words, IMO Miller, Barrett and Jones have all reached or even exceeded their ceiling already. Not that its a bad thing, they have done pretty great things all of them but do I see any of them coming close to the trajectory of Andrew Luck?? not even close.
I'll take Conner Cook's long term career over any of those 3.
I'll give you Miller as his shoulder injuries will severely limit his opportunities to play QB at the next level.
I do, however, have a hard time (right now) thinking that Morris, Ruddock, or Malzone have a better career trajectory than JT Barrett or Cardale Jones. Barrett blasted some B1G records that belonged to some guy named Drew Brees (who has had a pretty good NFL career himself) and Jones has the protypical pro QB size with some running ability too.
Ruddock may sniff an NFL roster but I would be surprised to see Morris make an NFL team unless there is a major turnaround with the young man. Way too early to speculate on Malzone, Gentry, et. al.
I'm simply saying, while Harbaugh will certainly improve the QB situation it's a bit much to insinuate OSU's QBs have "peaked."
Many on this board have blind faith-Harbaugh.It's definitely crazy that we have faith in the guy who turned San Diego, Stanford and the San Francisco 49ers into big winners.
have missed the point. In 6 months JH has been the talk of college football, there is not much else he can do at this point other than do what he has done. The camps did exactly what the post mentioned, got one of the best evaluators of talent out to where the talent was. Also the services will follow these 2-3 stars he recruited this fall and certainly some of their stock will rise. 5 star players are not likely to jump to a 5-7 team they want to see resukts this fall. Do you think JH will get the most out of the players he has been dealt this fall? I do, and if he does, we are in line for a couple of 5 stars and several 4 stars and the class will be top 10 as it will have stars and looks like a lot of recruits, which helps class rankings as well.
Dude, we have the number 8 QB in the nation in both the 2015 and 2016 class. It's hard to do much better than that in such a short amount of time. Chill out.
Stars are given by various Rivals/247/Scout/ESPN staff - and those services have a track record of STARS correlating to success.
But Harbaugh has been identified as the BEST Talent evaluator. No disservice to them, he is just better.
So if these kids have Talent, he sees it,
AND if they are hard workers
AND have a chip on their shoulders - ALL the better.
That said, I hope very much that you are right and that Jim Harbaugh is the world's greatest diamond-in-the-rough finder.
I did not mean to disrespect the people who work at the rating services - I'm sure they work hard at their jobs. However, their ratings based on highlights and camps pales when compared to JH seeing these kids in person. His track record for talent evaluation is off the charts. No offense to anyone else... just a great advantage for us.
potentially Amaizing results!
While the rest of the CFB World watches and is critical of Harbaugh's methods, our mad genius executes his plan. As Michigan fans, we all have front-row seats---this wild ride is gonna be sooooo much fun, both as it develops and when The Team, The Team, The Team gets those victories on the field!
My seats are in row 12 :(
So he's adopted a 2016 recruiting strategy of finding hungry winners irrespective of rating.
This is my sense as well. He's going after players with a chip on their shoulders and the character to channel the chip into competitive play.
Do we want 5-star studs? Of course. I think that day will come.
Do I trust Harbaugh? I have no reason not to. Harbaugh's track record speaks for itself. He didn't suddenly become stupid when he signed at Michigan. Harbaugh doesn't strike me as someone who scatter-shots things. He's executing against a plan he has in his mind. His plan is based on what's worked in the past.
I'd love Michigan to go 12-0 this season, but I don't expect that. What I hope for -- truly, truly hope for -- is a return to solid fundamental play ... few or no mistakes ... and the trend line is clearly pointing up.
I've been beat up on this blog before about that last comment. Some think "results trump trend," which is ultimately true, but not immediately true. The big-time recruits want first to see that the Michigan ship is righted and Harbaugh is once again working his mojo. If that happens, then the big-time recruits will want to be part of the renewed Michigan when it comes into full flower.
A 2015 where Michigan goes 11-1 through dumb luck -- winning despite themselves; a clown show that gets the lucky bounce -- impresses nobody. But a 2015 Michigan that goes, say, 9-3 by doing all the right things properly ... by convincingly beating those we should and playing hard and competitive against those who outmatch them ... will get people's attention.
Harbaugh is remaking the team in his image of hungry and competitive athletes. That's step one. Step two is to make 2015 be a season where it's clear the ship has turned. Then watch out ... the recruiting will be in line with the OSUs and Alabamas of the world.
..M does need to have the same quantity of 5 and 4 star guys that Urban Meyer is getting.
That probably can't happen this year, as M has been down for a while and OSU is the the reigning champ. It is natural for many '16 and '17 4 and 5 star guys to wait and see what Harbaugh can do with the team this Fall before committing or even putting Michigan on their short list.
On the other hand, there are already a good number of 4 stars in the class, and as far as getting difference makers, I think it is fair to argue the current O-line class will end up with Bosa level difference makers (though unlike top d-line recruits, even the best o-line recruits are not likley to be big impact players until they develop for a couple of years).
People are overly concerned with Harbaugh's first recruiting class. The class will absolutely be much better than the classes Harbaugh developed into Orange Bowl champs at Stanford, at least in terms of starz.
you may have just hit upon something that is evidence of this Harbaugh long-range plan that you and others here speak of: Harbaugh is loading up the offensive line with highly-rated prospects.
He's making a statement by signing under-the-radar kids; he's setting up pipelines by signing kids in talent-rich states all over the country (especially Florida, Texas, and California); he's casting a wide net for QB's while stressing to each of them that they will have to compete.
But he's immediately building the offensive line now for the future, going after top offensive linemen with the knowledge that building a top O-Line takes time and is of utmost importance in building a great offense. And he's doing all of the above while taking in transfers that will plug holes where some are obvious and others not-quite-so, while simultaneously sending the message to this year's team that everyone will have to compete for playing time.
What a f****** great master plan! What a madman/mad genius!
...Harbaugh is doing much better overall and at recruiting than any other human on the plant would be doing in 2015 as the Michigan coach, given the mediocrity of Michigan football from 2007 forward. Honestly, I cannot think of any living person who would be doing a better job than Harbaugh has done in his first 6 months, given where Michigan football has been since 2007.
Brilliant tweets, tranfers to plug holes, camps where he generates buzz, plants the Michigan flag all over the nation, and sees prospects work out, a decent amount of 4 stars already with more intersted, very likely a monster o-line class....
Recently someone posted the stars of Saban's first Alabama class, Pete Caroll's first USC class, etc.. Harbaugh's first Michigan class is on par or better, so far.
Harbaugh 's first year at Michigan is comparable to Saban's first at Alabama or Caroll's first at USC--rebuilding an underperforming program. In contrast, Meyer's first year at OSU was just taking over a program already hitting on all cylinders under Treseel that had a one year hiccup due to Fickle plus 4 or 5 starters missing most/all of the season due to tat-gate.
We should measure Harbaugh's first year at Michigan against Saban, Caroll, and even Charlie Strong's first year at Alabama, USC, and Texas. So far Harbaugh is doing better than anyone could reasonably expect.
and I think they ARE mutually exclusive even if it may not seem so...
1) Harbaugh goes purely on his eyes and on the eyes of people he trusts. Doesn't matter what anyone outside his circle says. If a kid looks good and has a resume he likes the offer is made regardless of his ratings or which other programs have offered. If this is the case we will obviously continue to pursue lower rated recruits as long as Harbaugh is coach; or
2) Harbaugh began this recruiting cycle planning to get a (very) strong contingent from SEC territory, Texas, and Cali. This has the obvious advantages of making waves and keeping M in the news and establishing relationships with coaches and programs where we haven't had them before.
Either way, notice is served to lower rated guys that if they can play, they'll get a chance at Michigan, and to higher rated guys (especially midwestern guys) that if they want to play at Michigan, they'd better reserve their spot.
If JH wanted a big class he had to go elsewhere to get it. The state of Mich doesn't have enough top talent for a fab 25 class. JH won't get anyone out of Ohio Urbs wants unless they have M ties. So yes, the camps were very much needed
Coach Hoke recruited a couple of 5 stars on offense that have not come close to their hype. I'm excited to see what JH can do with those two. Will they just get by for two more seasons, will they excell or will they sit? I'm hoping the one on the O line turns it around this season. We REALLY need the O line to step up if we are going to have a suprise season.
For those worried about the 2-3 stars. Look no farther than Drake Johnson. I believe he was a 3 star we picked up without a lot of notice? All he did last season was out play 4 and 5 star and the O line look good. He looked like Mike Hart with speed. I hope his rehab is going well.
There are literally hundreds of other comments that have said the same thing (more or less) as this "diary".
Trust Harbaugh, not stars. Can't fill out the entire class with 4 stars anyway. The satellite camps enable landing superior 3-stars.
The Numbers:
2015: The current year. (Please verify)
85: Number of scholarships on a football team
5: Fab circa 1993
25: Fab circa 2016
1: Diary that should probably just be a comment.
Threads like this would be hilarious if they weren't so sad. It's discouraging to see such stark evidence of how easy it is for intelligent, well educated people to make torturous, nonsensical arguments and weave unsbastantiated stories in the service of believing what makes them happy, rather than facing uncomfortable truths. It leaves me with the same feeling I get when I see a poll that says roughly 40% of Americans believe the world is 6,000 years old.
The only true thing said in this thread in defense of Harbaugh's recruiting is that it takes a while to develop recruiting relationships, and Harbaugh and his staff don't have those ties yet. Note that while true, this doesn't somehow mean that taking 2* recruits is a master strategy or a Good Thing, it just provides an explanation for why the Bad Thing is happening. Furthermore, note that this was Harbaugh's choice: he put his staff together, and he chose to emphasize teaching ability and X's and O's more than proven and current recruiting prowess. He could have put together a different staff, with assistants from P5 schools who had been recruiting every day for most of a decade. Time will tell if his choice was correct.
First, the entire idea that 2* kids are more motivated or want it more or play harder than 4* kids is nonsense. There's no evidence to show that it's true, and there's no logical reason to believe it's true. Most kids that get 4* ratings get them because they are busting their butts every day, because they want to be good at football more than they want anything else in the world. In fact, logically, you would expect that IF there is a correlation between star rating and work ethic, you would expect hard work to pay off in the form of higher rankings, not the other way around. So this notion that he's forced to take lower rated kids because he wants to change the culture by bringingin scrappy recruits that show a lot of effort is just silly, and its obviously silly. It's embarassing that this argument keeps getting made.
Second, the notion that in order to fill a 25-28 man class you need to get a base of lower rated recruits to start with is just mind boggling. It's as if the OP has never actually followed recruiting, at Michigan or anywhere else. Top programs routinely fill every available slot, even in classes that are of maximum size, without taking a single player that they need to settle for. Alabama, Ohio State, FSU, USC-- these schools are left with the problem that they have highly rated players with offers from other top 10 schools that want to come to play there, but they don't have room. So it may be the case that Harbaugh needs to fill his class with "diamonds in the rough" to hit 25, but it's certainly not the case that this is true in general.
Third, how are posters' heads not exploding with cognitive dissonance every time they try to claim that Michigan has been bad at football for so long that they can't be expected to get elite talent like they used to? It's not like you even need to think about this. You don't need to use logic, or conjecture, or think through multiple cases; you can just examine the actual irrefutable facts that show quite clearly that Hoke did not have this problem. What's more, the universal refrain on this board after Harbaugh's hiring was that since Hoke was able to recruit so well even with the team doing poorly, that Harbaugh would be reeling in 5* players left and right becuase of his NFL pedigree and fame. Anyone who said otherwise-- anyone who pointed out, for example, that Harbaugh had no history of recruiting much better than average and had assembled a staff of people who weren't known for recruiting-- was downvoted into oblivion.
The facts are the facts. I'm sorry if the facts make you feel sad. But there is no scenario in which reaching this early for players who don't yet have any real offers is a Good Thing. If you think you have a reason for why it's a Good Thing, stop, go back, and re-examine your starting axioms and logical deductions, because you've made an error somewhere.
And Harbaugh will STILL win 8 games this year, and 10 games within the next three years, because he's a very fine football coach. That doesn't mean he's King Midas; not everything he touches turns to gold.
And well presented. One quibble. Harbaugh actually does have a few coaches that have been on the recruiting trail. Drevno was at USC and Stanford, not in NFL. Durkin was at Florida most recently. Wheatley was in the NFL coaching ranks much less time than college coaching. Mattison the last 4 years at Michigan. So, we have essentially 3 coordinators that have been exclusively recruiting in college. So, the defense of recruiting for lack of contacts is not completely true.
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I agree that lack of experience/relationships in recruiting is an argument with some holes, but it's valid from the local/regional perspective. Harbaugh is focused on getting coaches with NFL experience and does not have many 'local' connections a la Fred Jackson.
I think what the comment refers to is that we don't have a pure "ace recruiting guy" - someone everyone knows is there, not because of his coaching chops, but because of his charisma, energy and overall ability to recruit. Michigan tried to get that in the TE coach from Kentucky (Marrow) but it didn't work out. It's typical to have that kind of guy and Michigan does not. Therefore, (relative to other programs at least) it may appear that recruiting is less of an emphasis.
I think Durkin is the one that had a good reputation for recruiting talent but he's been south for several years now, and we see that reflected in M's recruiting strategy. Mattison has had that rep too - though he's getting up in years now. Drevno stayed in college, but does not have that 'ace recruiter' reputation and his short stint at USC doesn't change that. Also, I think he's been exclusively west coast-oriented.
While I do think there is room for thinking Harbaugh can outperform expectations on the recruiting front based on his track record, I agree with the thrust of this comment -- it doesn't mean everything is roses.
Brian claimed that Michigan would land a top 10 class and that has been echoed all around, but it seems highly unlikely that will be the case at this point. There is a legitimate discussion to be had about whether the recruiting approach is smart or not, but some people are simply unwilling to hear that conversation take place. Intolerant because they are only interested in cheerleading. Generally it's the same people who said "just wait 2 years" when Hoke turned our offense into mush, recruited big slow WR, and ignored any QB not named Shane Morris.
The "cognitive dissonance" doesn't just apply to recruiting. It applied to our OL the last few years (where people actively rooted for a future NFL starter in Omameh to leave and tried to blame all the offenses problems on Taylor Lewan's leadership) and IMO, it still applies to the hybrid space player/DB. The same arguments being raised for Dymonte Thomas are now being raised for Jabril Peppers. Guys that haven't earned a starting spot are being annointed as the best player on the defense/team. It applied to our QB too - thinking a backup was going to be better than Devin Gardner even AFTER he played horribly as starter.
Optimisim is a good thing, but it's shouldn't be mandatory and cumpulsory. Sometimes it leads to just some ridiculous arguments that honestly people should be ashamed to be making in anything other than a devil's advocate framework.
I'm extremely excited about Harbaugh, and expect 10 wins soon like you do. I agree that doesn't mean we can't have a conversation or question the recruiting approach that looks like it will leave us at an MSU-level of talent and clearly a few rungs below OSU.
I question why people are surprised that we had a bunch of satelite camps and then had a bunch of offers to unheralded guys. What did you think these camps were for? If someone was a 4 or 5 star, the offer was probably out there already. maybe you could question why there weren't more 3-stars, but i think people would probably complain even if there were 3 stars commiting. You hold camps, you offer the guys you like who performed well at the camp. Otherwise, why have the camp? if the guys you like are 2 stars, then they get offers. When you have 9 or 10 camps, you're going to see a fair number of offers and commits that we weren't expecting.
I expected a little more from this thread. Is there anything here that any of us following the sateliite camps didn't already figure out? Offering under the radar types at this point is Harbaugh's 'method'. Lets save the term 'genius' for when the results are in.
Let's not forget one thing that a lot of people ignored during the Hoke tenure...recruitng success is only a means to an end, not an end in itself. The object is to win football games, not bring in highly regarded recruits. Until Harbaugh starts doing that here (and let's face it, it will be at least 3-4 years before we can tell if he's going to be a consistent, long-term winner), then it's a little too early to get excited. Things are going about as well as we could expect to see this early in his career here, but the program needs a lot of improvement to get to a top 10 level, and we'll have to see that on the field.
on the "He's won everywhere he's been" argument either, to be honest. Of course you want someone who's been a winner elsewhere, and Harbaugh certainly has, but it is no guarantee of success here. Rich Rodriguez is a prime example. He turned WV around into a top-notch program, and in his third year at Arizona, he won a Pac 10 division title and went to a major bowl. But he was an abyssmal failure at Michigan.
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