Washington Defense vs Michigan's Other Opponents
I was pretty surprised to see it, but (according to NCAA stats), Washington's Total Defense is rated #94 in the nation. That's worse than 13 of our 14 opponents so far this season. The only defense worse was UNLV (#103). I know Penix is a fantastic QB and I've got lots of respect for what UW has done this season, and still, I'm shocked by that stat.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:00 PM ^
They are currently #44 on SP+
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:15 PM ^
Exactly Comrade. No educated MGoUser should be relying on non-fancystats. Here is the current top 15 in SP+:
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:18 PM ^
Bill C
Washington has made a habit of defying the numbers of late, but the Huskies are going to have to do it one more time. While ESPN BET lists Michigan as a 4.5-point favorite at the moment, SP+ sees a pretty different game: It gives the Wolverines a 12.3-point advantage.
SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:35 PM ^
About time ESPN jumped on the Bet theme.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:57 PM ^
Wow. A 12.3 point advantage.
January 2nd, 2024 at 5:00 PM ^
We could miss two extra points and still win the game!
January 2nd, 2024 at 7:50 PM ^
I upvoted this but regret doing so.
January 2nd, 2024 at 5:01 PM ^
This is almost as big a spread in S&P that Michigan just had over Bama. And if Michigan's special teams were average yesterday, they would have rolled Bama.
January 2nd, 2024 at 8:09 PM ^
My score prediction is 45-31 so that sounds about right. I imagine the game will be close for a while but Michigan will do what they did to OSU in 2021 and 2022 and then Washington will score late to make it look better. So I have Michigan winning by 14. 12.3 sounds about right.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:19 PM ^
Shocking to see OSU offense - curious what it was before the Mizzou game.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:32 PM ^
Going from memory, but I think 24
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:24 PM ^
I think the Michigan special teams ranking there isn't correct. I believe the correct ranking is "wait, what happened to all of my fingernails."
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:26 PM ^
thanks for sharing - after watching how Washington played Oregon in the PAC-12 title game it just reinforces that you never know. I saw lots of comments talking about how Bama would roll us (no pun intended but I guess it is there) and how we hadn't played anyone and all sorts of logic to discount why Michigan would lose. Washington is in the title game after winning all their games and beating Oregon 2x and Texas. I will be rooting for a Michigan win but assume we'll get UWs best game of their season.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:31 PM ^
Only defense worse than UW on that list is the comically bad LSU defense.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:39 PM ^
Georgia benefitted greatly from their ass kicking of a very depleted FSU team. The stats don't take into account all the missing players, just the stats from FSU's previous games.
January 2nd, 2024 at 4:03 PM ^
I like SP+ but that would put Washington's defense in between Minnesota (31) and MSU (45). I find that hard to believe frankly, but clearly they're going to be a step down from PSU, OSU, and Bama
I think the difference will be Penix vs. Minter and the secondary. If Penix is dealing like he was at times vs Texas, it's going to be hard to beat, but I think after Michigan totally crushed Bama's pass offense this week that Michigan pass defense should be getting a lot more respect nationally
January 2nd, 2024 at 9:14 PM ^
You don't even need fancystats. YPG is not a helpful stay, especially considering Washington is very explosive. Quicker drives for them means more drives for the opponent to rack up yards. Yards per play is a much better stat. Simple and more informative than YPG.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:44 PM ^
Where they're just edging out ... Michigan State.
January 2nd, 2024 at 4:18 PM ^
Games aren’t played on paper, I believe Bob Ufer said something to this effect
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:00 PM ^
This is why I really like our chances next week. After playing OSU, Iowa and Bama we just need to play within ourselves and the open receivers and running lanes will be there. After seeing Minter call a gem of a game, I fully trust him to have something devised for Washington.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:06 PM ^
You are playing TCU again with a fantastic Qb. Time to show up early and often on the offensive side of the ball.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:16 PM ^
I agree. No setting downs on fire running into stacked boxes when it doesn't work
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:19 PM ^
This is a pretty good comparison with TCU. Penix is definitely a better QB than TCU's but their defenses seem pretty similar. This game needs to be controlled from both of our lines O and D and not turn into a shootout. We need to stay aggressive though because Washington can score points in a hurry. It did shock me that Texas got minimal pressure on Penix, so I hope our DLine can do better.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:36 PM ^
Our defense is better at getting pressure. Don’t you read this site? lol
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:20 PM ^
And not be fuckups on special teams.
January 2nd, 2024 at 4:41 PM ^
Except it's ok to tackle the Washington return man inside the 15 on kickoffs.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:01 PM ^
They're a poor tackling team. They've improved some especially since last year and the beginning of this year but they're still not too good.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:12 PM ^
In my eyes, they're like Maryland on a steroids. A QB-first offense with a ho-hum run game but lots of weapons in the pass game, and a defense that lets you score nearly as much as you want.
They've escaped a lot of close games, but Penix is the real deal and he alone gives them a chance to win every game. And their coach is legit, DeBoer is a great playcaller taking advantage of a veteran QB. But 8-0 in 1 score games is crazy and eventually that luck should run out, especially against a team as well rounded as our squad
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:16 PM ^
I don't think deBoer calls the plays. I think it's the o-coordinator that Alabama tried to hire before they turned to Rees. Regardless, whoever is calling the plays is terrific.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:49 PM ^
This is correct. His OC calls plays & has been with him for 4 coaching jobs.
January 2nd, 2024 at 8:00 PM ^
During the Sugar Bowl the announcers related an anecdote about Washington's OC being broke and living in his sister's laundry room when DeBoer called.
Said OC now makes $2 million a year under DeBoer.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:20 PM ^
Much better WRs than Maryland. Much better OL. Much better QB.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:33 PM ^
Yes... that's why he said "like Maryland on steroids".
January 2nd, 2024 at 4:03 PM ^
much worse defense
January 2nd, 2024 at 4:06 PM ^
Playing Washington will be a little like an NFL game. When an NFL QB like Mahomes or Allen is dealing, it is nearly impossible to stop them. If Penix wants to drop inch perfect dimes on his receivers like he did to Texas last night it's going to be really hard. Hopefully Minter has enough confusing looks to throw Penix off his game
January 2nd, 2024 at 4:47 PM ^
Penix was under zero pressure all night.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:01 PM ^
After the bowl games,
SP+ has Washington at #4 Offense and #44 Defense for #12 overall
Bama is #11 offense and #8 defense for #7 overall
Michigan is #12 offense and #1 defense for (surprise) #2 overall
Georgia's unapologetic murder of FSU got them back to #5 offense, #5 defense, #1 overall
(turns out my disney+ account gets me access to espn+ fancystats so i thought i'd drop these here for everyone)
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:02 PM ^
Some of that is tempo and Pac 12, total defense is just a raw number not adjusted for tempo or opponent. They're 44th in SP+ defense... which is still unusually bad for a CFP finalist, but not 90something.
If I recall correctly, they are quite poorly rated even in adjusted stats for run defense though.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:05 PM ^
This is a good point. I was going to ask if maybe their defense was dealing with the 'Reverse Iowa Effect' whereby the offense scores so quickly and so often that the defense never rests.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:28 PM ^
Washington will score on short drives (time-wise) then Michigan will march the field and eat up clock. By the 4th quarter they will be gassed and the psychopath will finally drown the ferret.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:40 PM ^
44 is fairly bad for P5, not just CFP finalist, but we'll see how it goes. They are ranked about where Illinois is this year on D and about 10 places worse than Minnesota. Hopefully that bears out.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:03 PM ^
They've won 10 straight games by 10 points or fewer -- including the redzone stand vs Texas, 3 pt win vs Oregon, 3 pt win vs WSU, and 2 point win against OSU in their 4 most recent games.
Virtually every team has had success running on them as well, including Texas last night. Texas had 3 ball carriers who averaged 6.81/carry on 26 carries (long of 21). Texas probably should have committed to the run.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:18 PM ^
Probably have a deal with Ewers/Manning that they have to throw the ball more than they run. Being half-serious.
With two #1 overall QBs on the roster, Worthy, etc., they probably feel like they should be able to throw it at will and have to showcase the pass to keep those guys happy. But sometimes you just have to take what the defense is giving you.
January 2nd, 2024 at 8:04 PM ^
I feel like your last comment is one of the biggest lessons the coaching staff took away from the TCU game.
While sometimes frustrating for the fans (eg vs PSU running the ball), the team this year seems to be extremely adaptable to what’s in front of them on both sides of the ball. They play how they need to play as a team in order to have the best chance of winning - rather than being about style points
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:18 PM ^
Can't get down against them, can't turn the ball over. Texas was always chasing that game and could never really go to the run game and grind them (and, regardless, I don't think Sark has that in him, has to prove he's the smartest guy around by having 4 misdirections every play).
January 2nd, 2024 at 8:40 PM ^
If a defense backed up 5 yards away from the line of scrimmage only about 10% of offensive coordinators would run it on every down. There are just so dang smart.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:19 PM ^
Matchups are usually won in the trenches, and Washington does not hold up well there except in pass protection. Teams can run on them, their run game is okay, and they don't rush the passer all that well (we almost double their sack numbers). If Michigan was able to push Bama around and control the LOS yesterday, it's gonna be tough to see how Washington can do any better
January 2nd, 2024 at 5:37 PM ^
They do have the Joe Moore Award winning offensive line. I'd assume that's much better than Bama's OL, but cross-conference comparisons are tough to feel confident about.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:04 PM ^
Their defensive integrity doesn't mean much though because of how explosive their offense is. We have to get a lead and a couple turnovers and shorten the game to a handful of possessions.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:06 PM ^
I am under the impression that the national championship might be easier for Michigan than the semi-final barring special teams errors.