Potential CFP Scenario: No SEC Team
There is actually an interesting scenario where we could have a CFP with no SEC team in it.
Here is that "no SEC in the CFP" scenario:
- Michigan wins big, a convincing and dominant win.
- Washington wins big, a convincing and dominant win.
- FSU wins big, a convincing and dominant win.
That gives you three undefeated conference champions with convincing and dominant wins in their championship games. You can't make a reasonable case to leave them out of the CFP.
To continue:
- Texas wins big, a convincing and dominant win.
- Alabama beats Georgia in an ugly win that makes both teams look bad, ala the 6 to 3 LSU - Alabama game of several years ago.
That gives you three one-loss teams for one remaining CFP slot: Texas and Alabama who won their conferences, and Georgia who did not win their conference.
Who do you pick for that one slot?
The CFP committee has clearly stated that they value a conference championship. They are not going to pick Georgia over Alabama.
So now it's down to Texas and Alabama. Texas has already beaten Alabama head-to-head, at Tuscaloosa, by double digits. That matters. That's why you play the games. Alabama may counter by saying "Well we beat #1 Georgia, that proves how good we are." But Texas can counter that by saying "Well we beat YOU, that proves how good WE are."
It would be very hard to make a case to leave Texas out in favor of Alabama. So, this would result in a scenario of a CFP with no SEC team.
Could it happen?
Realistically . . . no.
The reality is that SEC bias is indeed a real thing, and the CFP committee will manufacture some BS reason to make sure that an SEC team is not left out, no matter what.
It would probably be undefeated Florida State that takes the fall to make way for an SEC team. The talking heads at ESPN are already trashing FSU left and right to pave the way for this scenario.
December 1st, 2023 at 9:30 AM ^
SEC will not be left out - too much money is at stake. This scenario has been discussed all over the internet.
December 1st, 2023 at 9:32 AM ^
It's been discussed on this very message board a million times.
December 1st, 2023 at 10:35 AM ^
But Texas is an SEC team :)
December 1st, 2023 at 10:52 AM ^
There is a better chance that the Pac-2 champion gets left out vs the SEC champion, as ludicrous as that may sound.
December 1st, 2023 at 11:23 AM ^
The scenario that should result in zero SEC teams is the scenario that likely gets us two SEC teams instead. I could honestly see the committee leaving out Oregon in favor of Texas/Bama/Georgia.
December 1st, 2023 at 12:02 PM ^
The SEC has dominated CFB for the past 15 years but the reality is, they weren't that great this year. They (and the big ten) had losing records against other P5 conferences - the Pac12 and ACC had winning records, the Pac12 emphatically so. It's hard to believe and swallow but the Pac12 has a strong case of being the best conference in the nation this year. The SEC isn't just not the best - they're top to bottom better than the big ten, but their top end hasn't really dominated their middle and bottom the way that the Big 3 have dominated the little 11. And, crucially, Alabama lost to a playoff-worthy team at home by double digits. It would be a crime to leave out an undefeated P5 champ, and it would be a crime to leave out the Pac12 champ, and it would be a crime to put 12-1 Bama in over 12-1 Texas this year.
December 1st, 2023 at 9:31 AM ^
a one loss SEC team will still make it
December 1st, 2023 at 10:04 AM ^
How would Bama or UGA get in over undefeated FSU, Washington, Michigan, and a Texas conf championship game winner? Especially after Texas beat bama already?
That would be interesting to see but I think Washington or FSU will lose, so that would ensure an SEC team getting in either way.
December 1st, 2023 at 11:24 AM ^
Bama probably gets in over FSU there because of the QB injury alone.
December 1st, 2023 at 11:36 AM ^
The committee has already suggested that style points matter and that Florida State not looking impressive in a win over Louisville could drop them out of the playoff. Ridiculous, but true.
December 1st, 2023 at 12:24 PM ^
The SEC will get their champion into the playoffs. If Texas was playing a top 10 OU or KSU in the Big 12 championship game, then they may have a claim to the playoffs. If FSU is undefeated and Oregon wins the PAC12 championship, UGA should not get placed into the playoffs ahead of either of these teams.
December 1st, 2023 at 12:15 PM ^
Here’s an unpopular thing to say, but…
Ohio has a better record than a one loss Georgia or one loss Bama. Both those teams had shaky seasons. Ohio beat everybody and only lost to the best team in America.
If Bama beats Georgia, each of these teams if they win deserve to be in the playoff ahead of any SEC team:
Oregon
FSU
Texas
Ohio
There’s no need to neg the mention of Ohio. I only include them to suggest how ridiculous it is that two SEC teams, or even one if Bama wins, should be in the playoff.
Despite the facts, ESPN is already talking about how an SEC team has to be in the playoffs. Some even suggest that Alabama and Georgia would need to be in the playoffs. Unfortunately, nobody is making the comparison to the big 10 where the two best teams in the Big Ten are better than the two best teams in the SEC.
If there was a chance for a playoff with no SEC team, I would root for that. More important is a playoff with no Ohio.
Ideally all the favorites win this weekend, and we have the following:
Michigan
Georgia
Florida State
Oregon
December 1st, 2023 at 12:29 PM ^
The correct answer always is FUCK OHIO!
December 1st, 2023 at 12:54 PM ^
I disagree. If Bama beats Georgia, then they have the best win of the year, and their sole loss to Texas is basically equivalent to osu's loss to Michigan (except theirs was at home). There just ain't no way they're leaving the SEC out in favor of two Big Ten teams again, especially after how that went last year.
December 1st, 2023 at 10:23 PM ^
Michigan would have the best win of the year over Ohio. Ohio had a tougher schedule than Georgia and Georgia was tested in a few games. Ohio’s only loss is to an undefeated team where Georgia’s loss is to a shaky Alabama team.
December 1st, 2023 at 9:31 AM ^
The trashing of FSU is complete garbage. We’ve watched every one of their games this season and they are legitimate. Even without Travis - and they are perhaps a better TEAM without him, as is often the case when a star goes done. And that’s no disrespect to him; he’s an amazing human being. Rather, they have to rely more on the other parts of the whole, which are frankly quite great.
December 1st, 2023 at 9:42 AM ^
I don't think anyone will argue that FSU is not a really good team - REALLY good! But without Travis they simply do not have that top tier QB that is, speaking fact here, required for success at the CFP level. Without a QB that legit scares a defense, points will be hard to come by.
If Travis were still a thing, I'd be much more worried about FSU...
December 1st, 2023 at 9:43 AM ^
Great receiving core w Wilson and Coleman.
December 1st, 2023 at 9:49 AM ^
The notion many have expressed here that FSU has no chance against a team that face-planted at home against a mediocre Kentucky team seems questionable to me.
December 1st, 2023 at 10:00 AM ^
Remember, that Louisville team defeated three loss ND in October.
Yeah, FSU definitely can win…
December 1st, 2023 at 10:14 AM ^
FSU is still favored, even with Rodemaker banged up. I suggest whoever thinks FSU has "no chance" bet the company payroll on Louisville moneyline
But they won't because no one actually thinks that
December 1st, 2023 at 11:32 AM ^
You should look at what Louisville did against Indiana too. Indiana was about 18 inches from tying the game in the 4th quarter.
December 1st, 2023 at 10:57 AM ^
FSU is this year’s TCU. They certainly are having a special season…but I’d pick everyone else in the top 8 to beat them in a potential matchup.
December 1st, 2023 at 9:32 AM ^
Thank you for your new and original insight!
December 1st, 2023 at 9:32 AM ^
If the CFP leaves out an undefeated P5 champion for a 1-loss SEC, the outrage will be massive across the board.
I'm sure the SEC and CFP members are praying that one of Washington or FSU loses this weekend (if not both).
December 1st, 2023 at 9:35 AM ^
CFP will weather the outrage before excluding the SEC. The easy excuse is that they already identified the issue and have addressed it starting next year with the 12 team playoff. It will be their selling point rather than their excuse.
December 1st, 2023 at 10:20 AM ^
I will admit I am looking forward to the 12-team playoff.
Yes, there will still be arguments about who gets in. The team(s) that get screwed, though, will be at the bottom of the top 10 instead of the top. Those arguments become easier for me to ignore, like B1G teams arguing over who should be in which mid-tier bowl game.
This year? Let's just see how it plays out. I'm not convinced that Alabama beats Georgia this year, but they play the games for a reason.
December 1st, 2023 at 9:34 AM ^
Even if Alabama beats Georgia, there will be talk to then have both teams in the CFP!
December 1st, 2023 at 10:42 AM ^
Finebaum will argue for Alabama #1, Georgia #2, and Ole Miss #3 (due to their two "quality losses")
December 1st, 2023 at 9:38 AM ^
There is no way the SEC is being left out. If Bama beats GA, it's more likely there will be two SEC teams in as opposed to neither.
December 1st, 2023 at 9:38 AM ^
LOL no.
December 1st, 2023 at 9:40 AM ^
FSU needs to overload a PR program about this, and - they need to do it now and fast.
What’s the FSU angle - Ohio State, I think in 2014. IIRC, Barrett went down, Cardale Jones came in - and led the Buckeyes to the NC.
The media issue is.. degradation in QB play. FSU has to say.. it’s happened before - it may happen again. There are 22 players on the field - and, a solid win over Louisville is the key next step for FSU.
December 1st, 2023 at 9:59 AM ^
The thing is, in 2014 OSU didn't show any dropoff. With Cardale Jones in, they totally demolished Wisconsin in the BTCG, 59-0 or thereabouts. That's what got them in the CFP. But they also had a loss, so they were iffy even before Barrett's injury.
FSU is in a better spot because they're undefeated. If they win, they're in. If I'm not mistaken, no undefeated Power 5 champ has ever missed out. But if they lose, they're out.
December 1st, 2023 at 10:38 AM ^
OSU could buy backups that were better than most other teams could recruit for starters.
December 1st, 2023 at 9:40 AM ^
I don’t see any scenario where the SEC gets left out. There is a bias towards them and they will always get the benefit of the doubt.
Two years ago when #1 Georgia got destroyed by Bama in the SEC championship game, they were dropped in the rankings to where they ended up only to make sure they could be set up for a title game rematch. It’s the SEC’s world, the rest of us have to live in it. You know if Bama wins again, the media will lobby for both to get in the playoff.
Also, I highly doubt Florida State can beat the tar out of Louisville. I watched them against a bad Florida team and they couldn’t do crap until the 4th quarter.
December 1st, 2023 at 9:45 AM ^
There is no way they could leave out an undefeated conference champ fsu for a 1 loss sec champ. That would go down as the biggest travesty in cfp history.
December 1st, 2023 at 9:41 AM ^
Nick Saban has weighed in with a totally objective opinion free of self-interest:
"I think it would be a disrespect to the SEC if there isn't SEC representation in the final four. I do believe that."
December 1st, 2023 at 9:53 AM ^
Did he also say it was disrespectful of the PAC-12 those years when the PAC-12 champ was left out?
Until he does so, his opinion can fuck all the way off...
December 1st, 2023 at 9:57 AM ^
Saban can fuck all the way off 15 years ago. I liked him better when he coached MSU. His teams had so many Sparty Noooooo moments….it was glorious.
December 1st, 2023 at 11:03 AM ^
I’ll never forgive his pandering for Bama to get a CFP spot last year during the Big Ten Championship. They had zero legit case to be in. It was disgusting to watch Saban argue on bad faith that his team deserved a chance over the better teams that actually did qualify. Yes, even OSU.
December 1st, 2023 at 11:53 AM ^
And the fact that ESPN sent cameras to Tuscaloosa last year as if they had a legit chance of getting in the playoff despite 2 losses. It was pathetic.
December 1st, 2023 at 9:58 AM ^
I dont think Washington wins tonight. Oregon lost a close one at washington this season. I think they're playing better and and Washington hasnt looked very good. That explains the 10 point spread I guess. I think oregon smacks them.
December 1st, 2023 at 10:13 AM ^
The Pac 12 champion would still be in the CFP no matter what. Even if it is one loss Oregon.
December 1st, 2023 at 10:28 AM ^
Oregon is almost a 10 pt favorite.
December 1st, 2023 at 10:39 AM ^
Oregon’s coach made some dumb decisions in that game in Seattle. Going for 2 when you don’t have to multiple times, going for it on 4th down deep in your territory and getting stuffed.
The Ducks have a history of doing crap like that. A couple years ago, they lost to Nebraska of all teams because they tried 2 point conversions after every every touchdown and didn’t convert a single one.
December 1st, 2023 at 11:05 AM ^
There’s been so much chatter about Oregon winning that I half expect Washington to pull it out again somehow.
It’s like everybody is already assuming Oregon will win. Even though they lost the first time
December 1st, 2023 at 10:03 AM ^
I am going to take the naive and contrary view. I think this year is the perfect scenario that the SEC gets left out but it's more simple than your list.
Michigan, WA and FSU win, they are in. Simply put, no 13-0 major conf champion is being left out. That leaves one spot for UGA, Bama, Texas, or OSU. OSU out because it has no good argument over UGA. Remember, Bama is basically a 2-loss team. But you cannot put UGA in after Bama just beat them. So it comes down to Bama and Texas and, as you indicate, strong arguments for Texas there. And since Bama is basically a 2 loss team and lost the head to head, Texas gets it.
December 1st, 2023 at 10:14 AM ^
In an unbiased world, this would happen.
December 1st, 2023 at 10:14 AM ^
In an unbiased world, this would happen.