Week 1 Secondary Plan - Who will play?
Is it possible that our entire starting secondary will not play in week 1? I am excited when we insert a young guy in who can learn on the job, but not if we're going to potentially be without Moore, Johnson, Walker (arguable that he would start?), and Makari Paige.
Here's a link to some relevant info.
I don't know that this turns a Big W into an L. But perhaps not the roaring start we were hoping for? Also, given the injury submarine of the past, are any of these going to linger?
We're 2 days from game day - I've seen threads touching on these things separately, but 3-4 starters out seems like a big deal.
August 31st, 2023 at 8:54 AM ^
No offense to ECU, but I'm guessing our 2nd string is as talented as any team ECU will face all year. Our D-line and LBs are going to be all up in their backfield so even if a less experienced player has some jitters it will most likely be papered over. That said, I was at the App State game and said similar things to my fiance, now wife, and we all know what happened, so what do I know.
August 31st, 2023 at 10:23 AM ^
We know ECU isn't the 2x defending 1AA national champs.
August 31st, 2023 at 11:25 AM ^
Too soon.
August 31st, 2023 at 8:54 AM ^
I’m interested to see the front-page DB Preview when it gets released today or tomorrow but outside of Johnson and Sainristil, do we really know who are the best 4 or 5 at this time? We know who has started before and who has playtime time but I imagine there’s going to be a heavy rotation anyway through the Non-Con schedule. In other words, give it time.
If you’re asking this question by Rutgers, I’d say we have to have a talk.
August 31st, 2023 at 9:09 AM ^
Umm, Moore and Paige are established starters with, at least, All-Conference potential, so along with Johnson and Sainristil, have to argue that yes, we do know who the best 4 are at this time. Will be a significant concern if those two are out for an extended period.
August 31st, 2023 at 9:15 AM ^
Rod Moore and Makari Paige erasure!
August 31st, 2023 at 8:57 AM ^
I’m sure I’m totally being an unreasonable pessimist, but kinda worried about this week.
With Minter running all the head coach clock stuff and calling the defense and our entire secondary being out and ECUs QB, Mason Garcia, actually being decent, this could be harder than expected.
Or maybe it’s just 2020 BPONE coming back like it’s Covid.
August 31st, 2023 at 9:45 AM ^
I prefer this strain of BPONE to the pre 2021 season varieties.
August 31st, 2023 at 10:32 AM ^
As far as I know the entire offense is intact so I see a huge barrage early by the offense that will take the pressure off the defense, if any. I’m sure the path to a letdown was blocked once the self imposed suspensions were announced. Probably will be a much more lopsided win than if Harbaugh were coaching, with no disrespect to coach intended. Feel like the whole team (coaches included) is going to use this as motivation.
August 31st, 2023 at 11:52 AM ^
I keep seeing people mention ECU's decent QB. Am I missing something? He was a 4 star recruit, but his offer list does not reflect that ranking at all. ECU is replacing the most starters of any of our oppenents. Do we really think a guy in his first career start and a mostly rebuilt roster is gonna walk into the Big House and tear apart a Michigan team with Jenkings, Graham, McGregor, Colston, and Barrett chasing him all day?
August 31st, 2023 at 5:25 PM ^
He was a good prospect with bad grades…apparently? Draw Allar mold. We’ll see I guess but I am not worried in the least.
August 31st, 2023 at 8:01 PM ^
ECUs QB, Mason Garcia, actually being decent,
Based on what exactly? He’s been in college for three years and couldn’t take the starting job at a mid-major until year 4. He’s 19/38 in his career for 179 yards, good for a PUTRID 4.7 YPA. If this guy gives us trouble, we have some MAJOR problems.
August 31st, 2023 at 9:13 PM ^
I suppose they're basing this on his high 4* recruiting ranking, but your point's valid. If he couldn't win the job at ECU until year 4, it's a moot point.
August 31st, 2023 at 9:40 PM ^
I suspect he’ll probably be an average G5 QB. I don’t think he’s going to be a horrendous option out there that couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat. BUT it’s going to take much more than an average G5 QB to take advantage of the Michigan secondary, even a depleted one. Grayson McCall this guy ain’t.
Add in the fact that Michigan will have a SIGNIFICANT advantage in the trenches and ECU lost both of their top WRs and I really see no cause for concern. 4 year old recruiting rank be damned. I’d expect a lot of short stuff to mitigate Michigan’s advantage in the trenches but this isn’t a QB that’s going to come in and tear us apart simply because we’re playing our 2nd string.
August 31st, 2023 at 8:58 AM ^
After reading the D-Line segments from Brian yesterday, I think our secondary is only going to have to cover for a couple seconds before the big boys get home. I will keep this mindframe until proven otherwise. We also still have our leader sainristil back there guiding these young guns. Can't wait for Saturday. Go Blue!
August 31st, 2023 at 9:05 AM ^
This is way less than ideal. ECU’s strongest position on offense is QB, we are missing an entire secondary, and have some meaningful concerns about where our pass rush comes from. Oh, and we are missing our HC and OC. This is a great opportunity for the ground game + new rule on not stopping clock on first down to grind them down and significantly limit ECU’s time on offense and number of possessions. I trust that we’re taking this game seriously, but will feel a hell of a lot better if we can get up a couple of scores early on.
August 31st, 2023 at 8:07 PM ^
ECU’s strongest position on offense is QB
Their QB has attempted 38 career passes at 4.7 YPA. If that’s their strongest position, I think we’ll be just fine.
August 31st, 2023 at 9:05 AM ^
It’s a concern in a vacuum, but when taking ECU’s offense into consideration I’m not sure it’s worth fretting about. They’re 132nd in returning offensive production and they need to replace their top two receivers. Their relative strength in returning production - their running game - is also where we match up the best (see Jenkins et al, 2023).
August 31st, 2023 at 11:25 AM ^
Fair but they have a good QB. and breakdowns lead to confidence. this isn't some nobody school. theyre a legit program (in their own way)
August 31st, 2023 at 1:23 PM ^
But he's also a new starter. They lost a lot of production from last year's 8-5 team, including the QB and both 1,000 yd receivers. I see no reason why anyone would expect that our replacements will struggle but theirs will thrive.
August 31st, 2023 at 2:47 PM ^
Agreed. People here have unnecessary BPONE.
August 31st, 2023 at 8:09 PM ^
What makes you think their QB is good?
August 31st, 2023 at 9:06 AM ^
If Will Johnson, Makari Paige and Rod Moore are out, I'd expect:
CB1: Mike Sainristil, Jaden McBurrows rotating in
CB2: Josh Wallace, Jyaire Hill rotating in
Nickel: Kody Jones
S: Keon Sabb, Quinten Johnson rotating in
S: Zeke Berry
I know 2022 was a long time ago, but might need to remind folks Michigan beat a solid Illinois squad with Isaiah Gash as RB1 for the 2nd Half, no Mike Morris, no Luke Schoonmaker and no Trevor Keegan. They won for the first time in Columbus in over 20 years without the best RB in CFB and without the Big Ten DL of the Year. I think they should be ok as a 36.5 point favorite vs a Group of 5 QB making his first collegiate start.
August 31st, 2023 at 10:38 AM ^
And Kolesar will probably get some safety snaps.
I feel pretty good about Wallace, Sainristil, and the 4 safeties holding it down. Hill, McBurrows, and Jones are a little bigger questions but will likely be fine. There are a lot of options still. They don't need to play super complex coverages, just keep it simple and I'm sure it'll be fine. ECU will have a hard time sustaining drives.
August 31st, 2023 at 10:52 AM ^
Kolesar will definitely get snaps if that many DBs are out. He'll be a dependable option back there. Probably won't be a "starter" but I'd guess he plays a similar amount as one.
Let's look for the DL and LBs to feast so that the secondary is only tested so much.
August 31st, 2023 at 11:00 AM ^
Agreed on all fronts, and can be a huge benefit going forward with these young guys getting their feet wet come October-January.
August 31st, 2023 at 9:23 AM ^
3/4, sure.
... Walker (arguable that he would start?) ...
I don't think it's even arguable. I haven't seen anything in a long time suggesting that he'd be the starter.
August 31st, 2023 at 8:10 PM ^
He’s missed the majority of fall camp and he needed those valuable reps to even be in consideration for the job.
August 31st, 2023 at 9:24 AM ^
Michigan will give up more yards and points than expected, but will win comfortably. Probably 42-17.
I don’t think they cover.
August 31st, 2023 at 10:05 AM ^
Subtract a TD and add a TD; I'm betting 49-10.
August 31st, 2023 at 9:29 AM ^
Safety sounds like it will be Quinten Johnson, Keon Sabb, and Zeke Berry. CB sounds like we'll get a whole bunch of guys playing: Wallace, McBurrows, maybe some Sainristil while Kody Jones gets some reps at nickel
August 31st, 2023 at 9:39 AM ^
I'm going to guess it's Wallace, Mcburrows, Sabb, Berry and Walker playing
August 31st, 2023 at 11:18 AM ^
Walker was on crutches, so the internet told me yesterday
August 31st, 2023 at 10:00 AM ^
I'm more worried about the safety position than CB. Moore is just so dependable in the back.
August 31st, 2023 at 11:18 AM ^
Right - and if we're missing both safeties, that leads to a lot of breakdowns in 100 ways
August 31st, 2023 at 10:40 AM ^
What kind of "working through" are we talking, especially in regards to Moore and Johnson?
August 31st, 2023 at 11:11 AM ^
For Moore, I'm really hoping its not a NHG situation but the rumor is torn meniscus and those care vary pretty wildly
August 31st, 2023 at 11:18 AM ^
god. that sucks. rumors are often true. torn meniscus, as you said, can be a huge difference. that might be why jim was talking so admirably about sabb recently. has to pump the kid up for a legit starting role longer term. we've seen this before.
25% worried it means moore is out longer.
25% worried it means sabb isnt actually all that and a bag of chips (yet).
25% worried that im worried about nothing.
25% worried im not worried enough
August 31st, 2023 at 11:33 AM ^
It is known that Johnson had a 'knee scope' this summer and there was some talk about maybe not being 100% for camp and possibly a few weeks into the season. Have not heard anything about him since, but assume any reference to him is about this.
August 31st, 2023 at 12:00 PM ^
It’s not ideal to have your starters unable to play, but considering most everyone, if not everyone from the starting front seven will be suiting up on Saturday, and also considering ECU got gutted by the portal this off-season, and this will be far in the way the toughest team they play all year, there’s a good chance that their four-star QB will be spending a good portion of the day running for his life.
They will probably make some plays, but I have a hard time seeing them keep up with Michigan’s offense.
August 31st, 2023 at 12:53 PM ^
I think starters being "out" and starters being out for extended periods of time are different concerns, and so the first part is this weekend and is annoying but the second doesn't seem like a real one. By various accounts here and elsewhere a bunch of these guys could play if necessary, only this game isn't viewed as an essential concern. Obviously you don't want to tempt fate again but I suspect they'll be fine defensively and the backups are probably good enough to hold down the spots for a week without major concern. But yeah, not ideal for people to be dinged heading into the year even though this absolutely feels like submarine talk as well.
August 31st, 2023 at 3:26 PM ^
This 100%.
There's really two general scenarios here, and it seems like some us are conflating the two.
Scenario #1: A starter is "dinged" a little but could play if needed. There's a marginal net utility in letting him rest for a few games during non-conference play vs. whatever benefit he'd see getting some "live fire" reps under his belt. (Even for the experienced, there's always *a little* rust physically & mentally that accumulates between seasons.)
Although disappointing for fans who want to see a full-throttle bloodbath that includes a defensive shutout, this is fine. In fact, if you quinted hard enough, you could even argue it's *good* b/c it's about boosting the team's upside potential. It forces the younger guys to get live game reps during non-garbage time (something the coaches might not normally do otherwise) with basically zero risk to the team. Put differently, the "getting the new guys seasoned" will be more potent, which might reap benefits in terms of better quality depth later on in the season.
OR
Scenario #2: A starter is "injured" to the point where he can't (or *really* shouldn't) play. It's either practically impossible for him to play or if he did, it'd definitely be a net negative at this point in the season. He'd be very limited and/or risking reaggrivation & increasing the time it'd take to fully recover, but with almost zero upside. In which case, potentially worrisome, as it's more about minimizing downside risk or mitigating a legitimate issue this early in the season. Hopefully not the case here. But if it is, we've at least got an ideal schedule (super soft first half) & roster (very good if not excellent in every other position group) to handle the situation.
It's probably more complex in reality b/c it'll depend on which specific starter we're talking about.
(Which is probably why some folks seem to be conflating the two scenarios in their thread responses.)
August 31st, 2023 at 1:49 PM ^
East Carolinas Qb is starting his first game and is 19/38 for 179 yards with 1td and 1int in his career. He's going to be under duress. I'd expect a lot of screens knowing thier o line will not hold up for many 5 or 7 step drops.
August 31st, 2023 at 3:38 PM ^
I don't know that this turns a Big W into an L
Lost for words. Just the sheer thought of this event realizing is nonsense.
August 31st, 2023 at 7:40 PM ^
I would take Michigans offense over Ecus offense if it were a shoot out. Just sayin!
GO BLUE