Opponent Watch 2023: Preview, Part 1
Greetings! It has been far too long, friends. Please, have a seat. Can I get you anything? A drink? A burger?
HAHA YOU HAVE FALLEN FOR THE OLDEST TRICK IN THE BOOK. You are hereby suspended for the first four weeks of Opponent Watch 2023.
/places finger to ear
…okay, I’m being informed that you are NOT suspended for the first four weeks of Opponent Watch 2023. But we’ll revisit this issue this summer. Rest assured that I am still QUITE cross with you. You shall get what is coming to you. Assuming you come back for Opponent Watch 2024.
But please come back for Opponent Watch 2024.
For those of you who are new to this platypus rodeo, every week during the 2023 season we will wander through Michigan’s slate of opponents and talk about some stuff. Some of that stuff will be about football. Some of it will be tangentially related to football. And some of it will really, REALLY not be about football. I can’t promise that you will learn anything, but I CAN promise that we will be not learning that stuff TOGETHER. And in the end, isn’t that what really matters?
The friends we met along the way [Barron]
The Road Ahead
East Carolina
Last year: 8-5 (4-4 AAC), won Birmingham Bowl over Coastal Carolina, 53-29
Recap: Before we get too deep here, yes. I know. The first half of the schedule is bad. This is not my fault. This is not your fault. It is only partially Michigan’s fault. Sometimes it really do just be like that.
2022 was supposed to be The Year for ECU, and it nearly was. They won 8 games — their best total since 2014 — but it could (and arguably should) have been better. They missed a 42-yard field goal to beat #13 NC State in Week 1, they lost to Navy in double-overtime, and they lost by two to Cincinnati. On the other hand, they beat Memphis in quadruple-overtime and beat BYU and Temple by three points each, so 8 wins was probably about right.
When last we saw them: Michigan has never played the Pirates. However, in program history, Michigan is 11-3 (.786) against teams from North Carolina, 92-23-2 (.800) against teams whose primary colors include purple (their best against any color, though Michigan is currently on a 1-game purple losing streak), 81-26-2 (.757) against teams with a cardinal direction in their name, and 23-5-1 (.821) against teams whose mascot is wholly or primarily focused on sea-based combat*. All positive signs.
*If Ancient Troy had spent more time on developing their naval capabilities and less time building walls, this number would be significantly worse for Michigan, and it would have given Troy a much better chance against Achilles and company.
This team is as frightening as: Commercial air travel. Realistically, the worst thing you can expect is some minor inconveniences. But it’s not super exciting, and until you actually feel the thing take off, there’s a part of your mind that wonders, “I wonder how this giant piece of metal can defeat gravity.” Fear Level = 3
Michigan should worry about: Coming off a largely successful season (albeit one with a disappointing ending) and harboring legitimate national title aspirations on the strength of a returning 5-star quarterback, an All-American mighty-mite running back, and a mammoth offensive line, Michigan is a massive favorite in a season opener against a supposedly overmatched team from North Carolina. At home. At noon. In the first game of a new TV deal on a channel lots of people don’t have.
Things probably won’t go wrong. But things could go wrong.
Michigan can sleep soundly about: ECU hasn’t played a game in front of more than 60,000 people since 2016. They’re breaking in a new quarterback and a bunch of new defensive players. They are also not the two-time defending FCS National Champion.
When they play Michigan: You may feel underwhelmed about it today, but when Saturday morning rolls around, I’m guessing those feelings will be overtaken by the overall sense of FOOOOTBAAAAAAAALLLLLLLL.
First game: @ Michigan, noon, Peacock
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UNLV
Last year: 5-7 (3-5 MWC), no bowl game
No word on whether UNLV will be bringing the Turnover Slot Machine
Recap: UNLV started last season 4-1, including two wins over bowl teams. Yes, those bowl teams were North Texas and Utah State, but lots of teams don’t make a bowl game. Heck, some teams pay their coaches $9.5 million per year and still don’t end up in a bowl game. So that’s nothing to sneeze at. Still, a six-game skid put a bit of a damper on the season.
Since then, the Rebels were gutted by the transfer portal. They will be very bad this season.
When last we saw them: Michigan has only faced UNLV once, in 2015. Michigan won a thoroughly forgettable yawner, 28-7, in which Michigan took a 21-0 lead midway through the second quarter and then just sat on it. UNLV gained 235 total yards, which seems like a fair over-under for this year's matchup.
This team is as frightening as: Commercial train travel. Like commercial air travel, but with less anxiety and less novelty. And instead of wondering how to defeat gravity, you’re hoping not to hit, like, a Chevy Tahoe. Fear Level = 2
Michigan should worry about: Ricky White. Remember Ricky White? Yeah, UNLV has Ricky White.
Michigan can sleep soundly about: Remember 2022 Hawai’i? The team Michigan led 42-0 at halftime? The team Michigan outgained by more than SEVEN yards per play? UNLV lost to 2022 Hawai’i. And this UNLV team projects to be worse than that team.
When they play Michigan: I’m not saying “you should be watching significant chunks of Iowa/Iowa State on FOX, which will be on at the same time as this game.” I would never say that. I just think it’s important that you know it is an option.
First game: vs. Bryant, 4:00 p.m.
Bowling Green
Last year: 6-7 (5-3 MAC), lost Quick Lane Bowl to New Mexico State, 24-19
Recap: Bowling Green didn’t luck their way into bowl eligibility last season. They didn’t goose their schedule with a win over an FCS team. They LOST to an FCS team — Idaho — and still managed to find six wins.
When last we saw them: Michigan is 2-0 all-time against BG, with a 35 point win in 2000 and a 44-point win in 2010. That game is remembered for an awesome Denard touchdown run and a DAMN YOU UNIVERSE 45-yard Denard run that saw him ding his knee on the tackle when he probably could have stepped out of bounds after the first 40 yards. He wasn’t 100% for the rest of the year. Still, Michigan outgained the Falcons 721-283, and I believe this was the only game in which Denard, Devin Gardner, and Tate Forcier all saw significant time at quarterback.
This was an all-time “Remembering Some Dudes” game. John McColgan scored a touchdown. Ray Vinopal had an interception. Teric Jones had several carries. Just an all-around effort.
This team is as frightening as: Black licorice. Very few people would choose it over almost any other option, but, I mean, it’s here, so whatever. Enjoyment levels are likely to be extremely low, and there is very little nutrition to be gained. And you may think to yourself, “while it may cause some momentary discomfort, at least it’s risk-free.” But in 2020 a Massachusetts man died when he ate a bag and a half of black licorice every day for weeks; apparently the glycyrrhizic acid in the licorice caused his potassium levels to plummet, eventually leading to a heart attack.
I guess the point is: you never know? Fear Level = 2
Michigan should worry about: Overconfidence. Lack of Focus. Spent all night at a strip club a la Varsity Blues. JJ McCarthy meditates so deeply he can’t be awakened. Maybe the problem with Indiana Connor Bazelak was the “Indiana” and not the “Connor Bazelak.” Lord knows that’s not a huge leap.
Michigan can sleep soundly about: Bowling Green is #128 in preseason SP+. Bowling Green is no UNLV. And UNLV is no ECU.
When they play Michigan: Michigan has seven quarterbacks on the roster this season. That means that unfortunately, unless they let Donovan uncork one, they can only tie this performance from last year’s UConn game.
First game: @ Liberty, noon, CBSSN
Rutgers
Last year: 4-8 (1-8 B1G), no bowl game
Recap: Did you know there is a loudest possible sound?
Pictured: pending loudness [Barron]
It’s true. Sound is propagated by pressure waves, which alternate between areas of high pressure and areas of low pressure. The greater the difference between the high pressure and low pressure, the louder the sound. But at about 194 decibels, the ‘low pressure’ is effectively a vacuum, so the amplitude can’t get any bigger, and anything louder becomes a shock wave that travels out ahead of the actual sound waves. (Fun fact: that’s actually why you see those giant water jets at the base of rocket launches. It's not because of the heat, but rather because without those noise-dampening systems the sound energy would rip the vehicle apart). So, beyond a certain point, ‘louder’ ceases to have any real meaning.
Rutgers has been off-the-scale-loud bad for most of its time in the Big Ten. They’ve been so bad that “better Rutgers” or “worse Rutgers” wasn’t even a useful description. As a result, when their level of suck decreased, it was hard to notice, because they were still at or near the theoretical maximum level of suck. But I think they sucked less last year.
Most of the decrease in suck was on the defense, which performed admirably right up until about halftime of the Michigan game. Their collapse over the last 3.5 games hurt their numbers, but even with those games, they still finished with a better yards-per-play defense than… checks notes… Ohio State.
When last we saw them: Rutgers led Michigan at halftime for the second time in three years. Then Michigan scored the final 38 points of the game, which helped. It wasn’t as many as the time Michigan scored the 99 consecutive points against Rutgers between the 2015 and 2017 seasons… but still, it was nice to see.
This team is as frightening as: A Pilot Episode Homer version of Iowa.
The defense is good. The offense is… limited. But overall, while both are loveable, predictable oafs, one is just much less refined and developed in its predictable oafness. Fear Level = 4
Michigan should worry about: Rutgers may have the best defensive line (depending on your feelings about Minnesota or Michigan State), and probably the best pair of corners, that Michigan will see before November.
Michigan can sleep soundly about: The two factors that have kept Rutgers at sound-created-by-Krakatoa levels of terrible for the past eight years, offensive line play and the ability to throw the ball even a little bit downfield, don’t look like they’re going to improve any time soon.
When they play Michigan: It looks like Michigan WILL have Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines. Which will definitely matter.
First game: vs. Northwestern, SUNDAY at noon, for reasons, CBS
Nebraska
Last year: 4-8 (3-6 B1G), no bowl game
Recap: No team was more primed from a regression-to-the-mean season than 2022 Nebraska. In 2021, you will recall, they scored 239 points in conference play, surrendered 239 points in conference play, and parlayed that into a 1-8 conference record. 8 of their 9 losses were by a single score. Even if they didn’t improve at all, or hell, even if they regressed a little bit, they were mathematically certain to ‘improve.’
But Nebraska, long an odd cultural fit in the Big Ten, refused to yield to the nerds and their nerd math. They lost the season opener to Northwestern — Pat Fitzgerald’s final win at Northwestern — and then surrendered 45 points and 642 yards to a 6-7 Georgia Southern team, at which point Trev Alberts finally pulled the ripcord on Scott Frost.
The lone bright spot was defeating Iowa at Kinnick in a Black Friday game that kept the Fightin’ Ferentzi from the most infuriating division title in the history of organized sport.
When last we saw them: A quintessential 2022 Michigan game, where you think to yourself “yeah I know the outcome was never in doubt, but this nevertheless feels mildly frustrating.” Like when your friend owns a hydraulic press but refuses to squish anything spectacular with it. Michigan scored the winning points on its first drive, covered the spread, and held Nebraska to their lowest total yardage since their 2018 loss to Michigan… but, like, it could have been more awesomer?
This team is as frightening as: Baby Groot. There is a chance it will grow to something approximating its prior heights and seems like they’ve has fallen in with a pretty good crew, but at the moment they look pretty dang snappable. Fear Level = 5
Michigan should worry about: Matt Rhule excels at the thing Scott Frost struggled with most: organizing a fundamentally competent football team.
Michigan can sleep soundly about: Rhule was a combined 3-21 in his first seasons at Baylor and Temple, and Nebraska’s cupboard is awfully bare along the lines. It’s gonna take a minute.
When they play Michigan: I feel compelled to use this space to remind you that the truest things are the meanest things. And as someone who has said some mean stuff about Nebraska, this is the meanest thing I’ve ever seen.
Nobody has a greater sense of misplaced arrogance about the program they cover than the Nebraska beat.
— Matt Brown (@MattBrownEP) June 11, 2023
Western Michigan With Balloons doesn't get to call any part of the schedule 'slumming' lol c'mon https://t.co/X9g1hc94vT
“Western Michigan with balloons.” Goddang.
First game: @ Minnesota, THURSDAY at 8:00 p.m., FOX
Minnesota
Last year: 9-4 (5-4 B1G), won Pinstripe Bowl over Syracuse, 28-20
Recap: Is Minnesota good?
Yes. But also no. Maybe? They were 9-4 last year, but their best win was either post-head-coach-firing Wisconsin or 7-6 Syracuse. PJ Fleck has them 18-1 in non-conference games since taking over as head coach, but they’re 26-26 in conference play. They’ve won 9+ games in each of the last three full seasons, but outside of one Outback Bowl season in 2019 they’ve finished unranked every season under Fleck.
It’s possible this is Minnesota’s ceiling: a good team. An “Also Receiving Votes” champion. A cold, polite NC State. And 2022 was no different: throttled the bad teams, lost comfortably to the good teams, won about half of the coin flips against mediocre teams. The secret sauce, of course, has been the good team/bad team/mediocre team ratio. Since Fleck arrived in 2017, Minnesota has scheduled three P5 non-conference games: one against 1-11 Made-Gary-Andersen’s-ass-quit Oregon State, and two against a combined 5-19 how-did-it-take-you-this-long-to-fire-Karl-Dorrell Colorado.
This year, they get UNC in the non-conference and both Michigan and Ohio State in crossover games. We’ll find out whether Minnesota is actually ascending, or whether this is as high as it gets.
When last we saw them: #18 Michigan defeated #21 Minnesota on the strength of a fantastic Joe Milton outing. Up next: a sure-fire throttling of a hapless Michigan State team coming off a loss to RUTGERS. What are they gonna do, Ricky White us?
2020, man.
Joe Milton’s final rushing touchdown for Michigan [AP]
This team is as frightening as: Minnesota, circa the last generation or so.
Outside of the Tim Brewster Era, Minnesota has just been “Minnesota” since the end of the 20th Century. I expect nothing less — or more — this season. Fear Level = 6.5
Michigan should worry about: Minnesota will be coming off of games against Northwestern and Louisiana.
Michigan can sleep soundly about: Minnesota loses Mo Ibrahim and Trey Pott’s combined 35 carries per game, Tanner Morgan’s eleventy-three years of experience, the best pieces of their offensive line, and Football Ross and Rachel On-Again-Off-Again Offensive Coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca. It might take a while for the offense to gel.
When they play Michigan: This will possibly be the beefiest offensive line matchup of the season in college football. Not the best, or possibly even the biggest. But the beefiest.
First game: vs. Nebraska, THURSDAY at 8:00 p.m., FOX
August 17th, 2023 at 9:07 AM ^
Oh, I can't tell you how happy I am opponent watch is back!!! The season is officially almost here!!
August 17th, 2023 at 1:31 PM ^
For many (including me). this is their favorite feature of Mgoblog. It is incredibly amusing. entertaining. and intelligent.
I was amused last year when a newbie complained in the comments after the first edition because there was not enough detailed information about the opponents. One thing we can be certain about, we will get plenty of hard information, data, and stats during the year.
August 17th, 2023 at 2:57 PM ^
I wept tears of joy when I saw the title and picture.
August 17th, 2023 at 3:06 PM ^
#BRINGBACKOPPO.... oh, wrong year.
It should be a crime to suggest that ¡El Assico! is not a "must watch" college football event. Granted, people might not *want* to watch it (and they might have serious digestive discomfort afterwards), but they must watch it anyway.
August 17th, 2023 at 9:11 AM ^
Wait. Wait!! WAIT!!!! Is there football soon?!?!
In the first game of a new TV deal on a channel lots of people don’t have.
I fully expect people to be asking regularly for the MGoStream... I will be one of them.
August 17th, 2023 at 11:09 AM ^
Same thing happened when the BIG Network launched and many cable providers didn't yet carry it. Almost missed the nightmare. Wish I had.
August 17th, 2023 at 11:22 AM ^
I listened to it on an internet radio stream. Never saw a single play.
Thank you, Big Ten Network and your awful money-grab. :)
August 17th, 2023 at 2:17 PM ^
I saw bits and pieces of the first 10 minutes and left the house with a nervous feeling in my stomach. When I turned on the radio at the top of the 4PM hour, the top headline on the national news was "A historic upset in the sports world". I knew. I just knew.
August 17th, 2023 at 9:14 PM ^
That was me too. I was out of town on vacation. I would check the radio occasionally to hear score updates. I was at a gas station when I heard ". . . and Michigan is struggling to put Appalachian State away".
Then later, I heard the same "A historic upset in the sports world". Yep, I knew.
August 17th, 2023 at 9:15 AM ^
I literally gasped like a little schoolboy when I saw this on the front page. I am using the word "literally" correctly.
It's officially football season y'all!
August 17th, 2023 at 9:22 AM ^
Some of that stuff will be about football. Some of it will be tangentially related to football. And some of it will really, REALLY not be about football.
And some of it will really, REALLY not be about football, but actually, secretly, be about football.
August 17th, 2023 at 9:27 AM ^
To read this now or later? I cherish these moments. And it’s only part 1.
August 17th, 2023 at 12:17 PM ^
Now ‘n Later
August 17th, 2023 at 9:28 AM ^
MOM!
HEY MOM!
OPPONENT WATCH IS HERE! THE SEASONS ALMOST UPON US!
*muffled voice from the other side of the house* That’s nice dear …
August 18th, 2023 at 2:10 PM ^
I forwarded the article to my two kids and my (Utah Ute) girlfriend before reading this comment.
::snorts Diet Coke out his nose::
August 17th, 2023 at 9:35 AM ^
i love reading through it as the season progresses.. but i hate that awful image. Luckily, with it being 2 parts, that means its the maximum joy of all the football ahead of us!
I have my popcorn, my tv, my extra subscription to Peacock - because the 400 a month I pay for fios and wireless is clearly not enough, and my couch seat ready to go!
August 17th, 2023 at 9:36 AM ^
I like Opponent Watch.
(gif of weird goggles kid in line for Santa from A Christmas Story here.)
August 17th, 2023 at 9:43 AM ^
And thus begins my annual decline in Thursday morning productivity at work...
August 17th, 2023 at 9:43 AM ^
As someone I follow on the Twitters, sorry X, is fond of saying.
Not this Saturday or the next Saturday or the Saturday after that.
But the Saturday after THAT.......
Welcome back.
August 17th, 2023 at 9:49 AM ^
Serious question - can you pause and rewind live games on peacock? If I miss the opening, can I go back to the beginning or do I have to just start where I start or wait for it to (presumably) be available for replay? And it will be available for replay, right??
Also, I did learn something by reading Opponent Watch. It wasn't about football in any way (Troy and Sound), but edumacational nonetheless.
August 17th, 2023 at 3:48 PM ^
For the most part, every live event I have seen on Peacock can be started from the beginning even when the event has not concluded. My son is a die hard wrestling fan and it is like that for every event that airs on Peacock. I assume it will be the same for football.
Peacock has about the worst interface in history though. It is often unresponsive and fast forwarding/rewinding is a huge pain.
August 17th, 2023 at 5:18 PM ^
Cool, I hope it works. I'll have to test it out with other random live events today or tomorrow so I know what to expect.
My daughter has driver's ed when the game starts, so I need to drive here there and expect to miss parts of the game.
EDIT: and just like that, confirmed. Golf is on right now, as referenced in another board post, and I am able to go back up to 4 hours. Thanks!
August 17th, 2023 at 9:56 AM ^
Oh boy, the first opponent watch. Shit is about to get real.
Great work BiSB, I love these!
August 17th, 2023 at 10:00 AM ^
The back to back at Nebraska - at Minnesota gives me a bit of apprehension. I prefer getting those kind of middling but capable teams after they realize they are not a contender. Both of those teams are going to be really jacked for those games.
August 17th, 2023 at 1:54 PM ^
BiSB makes a great point about how Minnesota's record under Fleck is over inflated by bad OOC scheduling and playing in the west
August 17th, 2023 at 4:28 PM ^
I'd be happy to have Penn State and Nebraska switch places on the schedule.
August 17th, 2023 at 10:03 AM ^
“Western Michigan with Balloons?”
(Sorry, I haven’t had my coffee yet.)
August 17th, 2023 at 11:40 AM ^
It refers to an old Nebraska tradition where they all release red balloons into the air after they score their first points (I think field goals counted) during home games.
However, I think the students voted to end this a few years ago because of environmental concerns. And my opinion is that the school agreed because of inability to score concerns (i.e., there were a few games that were really uncomfortable with all these fans sitting around waiting to release their balloons deep into the first half).
August 17th, 2023 at 9:19 PM ^
So, Nebraska did NOT really suck the past couple of years by not scoring. They were just doing their part for climate change.
So . . . Iowa should be Al Gore's favorite team.
August 17th, 2023 at 9:29 PM ^
I just looked into this—Nebraska actually ended this tradition just last season because of the shortage of helium.
Story: https://www.si.com/.amp/college/2022/05/24/nebraska-announces-end-red-b…
August 17th, 2023 at 4:56 PM ^
Until proven differently this is how I want Nebraska referred to from now on.
August 17th, 2023 at 10:04 AM ^
I lol'd at "Western Michigan with balloons" such that people at work looked at me. Opponent Watch is BACK!!!!!
August 17th, 2023 at 10:12 AM ^
BisB! We have missed you so! I wasn't expecting this for at LEAST another week! This was MUCH better than the flow chart I was going to work on.
Now I have to figure out how to work some of these references into conference calls.....
Welcome Back!!
August 17th, 2023 at 10:13 AM ^
Now…NOW the season is officially beginning.
My wife knows when these come out because my time on the toilet increases by 10x.
Welcome back, and thank you.
August 17th, 2023 at 10:13 AM ^
Anti-intellectualism has rendered a USC-MSU rivalry a lost opportunity.
Spartans vs. Trojans. It could've been. . . epic.
But these days the only sports fans who care about history are weirdos who read OppWatch.
August 17th, 2023 at 10:51 AM ^
It's a shame there's no team called the Athenians. Despite the historiographic hype for the Spartans, Athens often did well at war too.
I now wait for those more versed in Ancient Greek history to correct / admonish me. ("Yes, I've been a bad boy and deserve to be punished.")
August 17th, 2023 at 11:58 AM ^
Missed opportunity for Ohio University.
August 17th, 2023 at 1:30 PM ^
There's a "pop" history homophobia in that the Athenians were gay and therefore don't make for a "tough" mascot. (It's doubly offensive because it exaggerates the extent of homosexuality in Athens, and implies that gay men can't fight. Yet the Thebians' crack unit that defeated the Spartans was entirely gay.)
But while the Athenians were fine, the Macedonians get no love in sports. They beat the Athenians, and the Thebians, and basically everyone else*. I mean. . . effin' Alexander the Great.
*They didn't go after Sparta because by that point Sparta was. . . Little Brother. Defeatable, but too crazy and irrelevant to bother with, and yet their effin' bye with Macedonia is overplayed as valor to this day.
August 17th, 2023 at 2:42 PM ^
It's a shame there's no team called the Athenians
No team, but after the founding of U-M, Ann Arbor was nicknamed the "Athens of the Midwest," the great center of learning.
When Michigan State College (not yet MSU) decided to move on from being the Aggies, they naturally decided on Athens' rival, Sparta.
August 17th, 2023 at 8:41 PM ^
Mount Saint Mary University uses the Athenian mascot.
I believe that UNC Greensboro ("undefeated in football since 1891") used to be the Athenians when they were UNC Women's College prior to 1964, but I don't have a reliable citation to support that fact.
August 18th, 2023 at 2:16 PM ^
Damn I love this fanbase.
And anyone dissing Athenian warcraft can suck my Pericles.
August 17th, 2023 at 10:18 AM ^
The Nebraska stuff in particular is awesome.
August 17th, 2023 at 10:20 AM ^
nebraska as baby groot is the most dead on balls accurate thing i've ever heard
August 17th, 2023 at 10:31 AM ^
I dunno, it more feels like last year's Nebraska. Every fourth quarter half the team is busting their butts and then someone stupidly goes "I am groot?" while touching their finger to a bomb detonator button.
August 17th, 2023 at 3:10 PM ^
Viewers had an affection for Baby Groot though...
August 17th, 2023 at 10:33 AM ^
Hot damn did I miss Opponent Watch! Starting to feel really real again.
August 17th, 2023 at 10:37 AM ^
O!
M!
G!
Is it (almost) time?!
Oh, Opponent, welcome, Watch.
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