Revisiting the AP Preseason Top 25
As long as we’re spending some time today looking back at preseason picks, here’s a look at the AP preseason top 25. You can see for yourself who was overrated and who was underrated.
1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. Clemson
5. Notre Dame
6. Texas A&M
7. Utah
8. Michigan
9. Oklahoma
10. Baylor
11. Oregon
12. Oklahoma State
13. NC State
14. USC
15. Michigan State
16. Miami
17. Pittsburgh
18. Wisconsin
19. Arkansas
20. Kentucky
21. Ole Miss
22. Wake Forest
23. Cincinnati
24. Houston
25. BYU
Others receiving votes: Tennessee 180, Texas 164, Iowa 163, Penn State 160, LSU 55, Fresno State 32, Minnesota 31, UCF 27, Purdue 17, Mississippi State 15, Auburn 15, Kansas State 14, Florida 14, North Carolina 9, Boise State 5, Appalachian State 4, Air Force 4, South Carolina 2, Utah State 2, UCLA 2, San Diego State 2, Nebraska 1
December 12th, 2022 at 12:48 PM ^
worst ones are probably, Texas A&M, ND, and MSU.
December 12th, 2022 at 12:50 PM ^
Miami: "Hey! What about us?"
December 12th, 2022 at 12:50 PM ^
And Clemson
December 12th, 2022 at 12:58 PM ^
Not really. They're still 11-2, ACC champions, and ranked 7 in the final CFP rankings. Maybe a little overrated still, but not anywhere close to TAMU or msu or even notre dame.
December 12th, 2022 at 1:13 PM ^
ACC champions
I still think that NoDak could give them a game.
December 12th, 2022 at 1:00 PM ^
No TCU?
December 12th, 2022 at 1:08 PM ^
Not even receiving votes, wow!
December 12th, 2022 at 3:43 PM ^
At least K-State got votes
December 12th, 2022 at 1:06 PM ^
Oklahoma
December 12th, 2022 at 2:06 PM ^
Crazy observation:
22 out of the 25 teams ranked in the AP Preseason Top-25 have worse rankings in comparison to their position in the final CFP Top-25. The only three teams that have risen are UGA, UM, and USC.
15 out of the 25 have dropped entirely out of the rankings.
December 12th, 2022 at 3:43 PM ^
Penn State was a pretty big miss, they objectively had a great season. Just not as good as ours....
December 12th, 2022 at 12:50 PM ^
Top 10 wasnt bad. 2nd 10? holy cow.
December 12th, 2022 at 1:12 PM ^
The top 10 included Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Baylor. It wasn't great either.
December 12th, 2022 at 1:41 PM ^
3 were awful picks. ND still ended up top 25. Still think 6-7 solid out of 10 is pretty good.
December 12th, 2022 at 2:25 PM ^
Of the top 10, 8 of them fell from their starting spot. The movement of the top 10 is -4, -2, +1, -3, -16, -20+, -1, +6, -17+, -16+. So the top 4 was fine, but 5-10 had a lot of misses. That's 3 teams falling completely out of the rankings, with 1 being outside the top 20. Having 3 top 10 teams finish unranked is glaring. A 60-70% rate is not great, in my mind.
December 12th, 2022 at 12:51 PM ^
Preview of the next preseason top 25:
1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. Clemson
December 12th, 2022 at 12:53 PM ^
the form is pre printed
December 12th, 2022 at 12:53 PM ^
you're probably right most years...but I think USC will get the nod for a top 4 spot next year preseason!
December 12th, 2022 at 12:57 PM ^
I thnk Michigan will get some more love next year as well. Having marketable players like JJ & Edwards goes a long way in getting media hype.
December 12th, 2022 at 1:06 PM ^
Agree but some will look at total 5 stars on OSU compared to Michigan and assume we can't compete with that kind of talent (again).
December 12th, 2022 at 12:59 PM ^
Is Caleb Williams not eligible to turn pro? Unless he's back that makes no sense.
December 12th, 2022 at 1:02 PM ^
He's a true sophomore. Imagine where Lincoln Riley would be if had had UM's QB's of the last decade. Maybe it's luck, maybe it's great recruiting and development, but, other than perhaps Miami of 1980's, I can't think of a coach who's had more talented QB's over a decade.
December 12th, 2022 at 2:51 PM ^
alabama is right there
December 12th, 2022 at 1:05 PM ^
he is a true sophomore and will be back
December 12th, 2022 at 12:58 PM ^
I think Clemson lost its auto-inclusion this year. Honestly Michigan may have taken it from them.
December 12th, 2022 at 1:13 PM ^
Am I crazy for thinking Michigan will be top 2 preseason next year (with an outside chance at #1)?
December 12th, 2022 at 2:22 PM ^
Depends on how Michigan performs in the Playoff to a large degree I think.
December 13th, 2022 at 2:33 PM ^
I could see Michigan being in the top 3 depending on who declares and who comes back. I think forecasting them in the top 5 is reasonable.
December 12th, 2022 at 12:52 PM ^
Hope the Spargoons enjoy being unranked for the foreseeable future.
December 12th, 2022 at 1:26 PM ^
95 reasons why. Meaning, 1995 results forever.
1995 Michigan State Spartans Schedule and Results
Record: 6-5-1 (57th of 108)
December 12th, 2022 at 12:53 PM ^
Is Brian an AP voter? I'm thinking that one vote for Nebraska at No. 25 must have come from him.
December 12th, 2022 at 12:53 PM ^
I believe someone on the board posted a great analysis of this recently, along with some striking visualizations.
There were some shocking findings (or not so shocking) of very few of the preseason top 25 teams actually finishing in the top 25, certain usual suspect teams being overrated yet again for no particular reason, some Nelson Muntz "ha-ha" moments, and so on.
Worth checking out if you can find it
December 12th, 2022 at 1:01 PM ^
These are the graphics from that thread. It seemed that the 247 Team Talent Rankings did the best job of putting teams in the top-25 at the end of the season. The AP was a mess.
December 12th, 2022 at 1:05 PM ^
If I were an AD looking to make a hire, I'd take every considerable coach's graph of talent v. performance over all recorded history and go after the one with the most positive slope. Unless it was Franklin.
December 12th, 2022 at 1:20 PM ^
Awesome. I love charts. They make my brain smile.
December 12th, 2022 at 1:25 PM ^
Blue - great representation of key data points. Thank you…
December 12th, 2022 at 1:36 PM ^
Love your stuff, including the recent diary post
December 12th, 2022 at 1:55 PM ^
Thanks, man! (and also thanks to Amazinblu and Wolverinebaboo)
December 12th, 2022 at 12:56 PM ^
Did even half these teams end the season ranked? Lol.
December 12th, 2022 at 1:14 PM ^
I think 15 teams in the final CFP poll started unranked in the AP.
December 12th, 2022 at 1:36 PM ^
staee got way TOO MUCH respect at #15.
December 12th, 2022 at 1:47 PM ^
EGJ, I love the direction of the B1G program in EL. And, not appearing in a bowl, will help that squad get much needed rest.
December 12th, 2022 at 2:09 PM ^
Original sign: "Buy Mel"
New sign: "Bye, Mel"
December 12th, 2022 at 2:09 PM ^
Some of these made sense with USC getting a new coach and QB - I didn't see them going 11-1 and another loss to Utah but more like 9-4 maybe 10-3. UCLA was extremely underrated given what seemed like a 5-year starter at QB and Zach back at RB.
Tenn just outside the T25 made sense too given how they have barely sniffed success since Phil got forced out. A lot of hoopla but it didn't materialize until this year.
I can understand as well the TCU getting zero love. New coach, combined 23-22 over previous 4 seasons, etc. I think we had a period early 2015 under JH where we didn't even get a vote in one of the polls, but finished 10-3.
Was happy to see MSU, Miami, and Pitt all fall off. Pitt is MSU east under 60 minutes of roughness guy (who probably still hates UM). Miami found out that Josh isn't the greatest after all.
Probably the bigger pre-season surprise was why PSU wasn't even ranked in the T25. They had talent coming back and lost about every way possible to end 7-6, but Franklin usually ends up in the T25 by YE.
December 12th, 2022 at 2:18 PM ^
I remember rolling my eyes at Notre Dame being ranked #5. If they weren’t opening their season in Columbus, there’s not a chance in hell they would have been ranked that high.
December 12th, 2022 at 2:20 PM ^
So, which conference(s) were the most over-rated, from a preseason to “end of regular season” perspective?
It seems like the Big 12 and ACC are vying for that honor.
December 12th, 2022 at 2:31 PM ^
Looking at the numbers sideways and upside down, you could make a case that it did predict Michigan's (@ 8) is twice as good as Staee (@15).
December 12th, 2022 at 2:42 PM ^
When you take this into account:
The ACC and Big12 are no better than the BIG TEN West. Once you clean that trash out of the top 25 its an entirely different top 25.
Clemson's entire world is based on a season (several seasons actually) of one score wins over Syracuse State Forest College.
Wake, Pitt, Miami, Oklahoma, Okie St, Baylor, NC state all nothing better than what is in the Big Ten West.
December 12th, 2022 at 5:20 PM ^
Whoa, Notre Dame was overrated in the preseason?! That never happens.
December 12th, 2022 at 10:54 PM ^
So TCU is the "Michigan of 2021". Went from unranked to CFP.
(And then lose to overmatched opponent in the 1st round ;-)