CFP Playoff Scenarios
For the conference finals, UM and Georgia are heavy favorites. TCU and USC, not so much. If UM and Georgia win, what happens based on different TCU/USC outcomes?
First question is who the committee says is first replacement (#5): OSU or Alabama? I think they go with OSU given a historical disdain for 2 loss teams. We'll have an answer this evening.
Second question is who jumps whom if teams lose (assuming losses aren't blowout losses here). Here's my thoughts:
Scenario 1: TCU wins; USC wins
3 - TCU; 4 - USC
Scenario 2: TCU wins; USC loses
3 - TCU; 4 - OSU
Scenario 3: TCU loses; USC wins
3 - USC; 4 - TCU
Scenario 4 (chaos scenario): TCU loses; USC loses
3 - TCU; 4 - OSU
November 28th, 2022 at 10:30 AM ^
Been rooting for TCU and USC to lose up to this point, but now I really want them to win out. I do NOT want to potentially face Ohio again.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:33 AM ^
My biggest thing is keeping them out of the Playoff again and ensuring they miss out on all three of their goals (beat Michigan, win the Big Ten, win the National Championship) for the second straight season.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:35 AM ^
Agreed, at this point Michigan probably wants chalk. If Georgia would have beaten Alabama in the SEC championship last year, we probably would have ended up with...
- Georgia
- Michigan
- Cincinnati
- Notre Dame
Michigan probably still gets smoked by Georgia eventually, but I feel like they probably beat Cincinnati and get to the title game. Don't let these high recruiting rankings teams get a second chance!
November 28th, 2022 at 10:37 AM ^
Imagine Michigan pantsing OSU again in the NC game. Columbus would literally burn to the ground. But I agree that it is tough to beat a team twice.
November 28th, 2022 at 5:17 PM ^
I dont want osu again either, but I dont think they have a shot beating UGA.
With that said, it would be cool as shit for Michigan to beat osu twice in the same season.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:31 AM ^
OP---what are the point spreads for all four of the playoff contenders playing this Saturday?
November 28th, 2022 at 10:33 AM ^
Georgia by 17.5
Michigan by 16
TCU by 2.5
USC by 3
November 28th, 2022 at 10:32 AM ^
Still think Bama will be 5
November 28th, 2022 at 11:00 AM ^
I think they have to go w OSU in spite of the Bama love affair
- neither wins their division
- neither plays in a conference game
- Bama has lost 2 games - both on the road to ranked teams (Tennessee #7 and LSU #11) and both close; close wins over TAMU and Texas #21
- OSU lost at home to Michigan (#2) in a epic disemboweling, beat #19 ND by 11 and #8 PSU by 13
in that scenario hard to see them picking the 2 loss team over the 1 loss team
November 28th, 2022 at 1:08 PM ^
Bama’s 2 losses were by a total of 4 points. Tuesday night is gonna be interesting.
November 28th, 2022 at 2:17 PM ^
They're also 5 points away from having 4 total losses. Almost losing to A&M and Texas without their QB isn't great. OSU beat everyone by double digies until they got thunderclapped by Michigan.
I don't want to see OSU in the playoff, but the Alabama over them talk is ridiculous if you ask me.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:34 AM ^
Just keep OSU out. That is all I want. Well, that plus UM wins the whole darn thing.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:34 AM ^
Just looked at USC's results this year and I would love to play them the most. They gave up 37 to Arizona, 35 to Cal, and 45 to UCLA. If we hold them to under 30 points, we win for sure.
November 28th, 2022 at 12:52 PM ^
Having watched a handful of USC games this season, it's worth noting that Caleb Williams is a bit of a hot-head. That's an issue going up against the defense Michigan ran out there Saturday.
November 28th, 2022 at 3:11 PM ^
The thing with them is they can be an offensive juggernaut at times, whereas TCU is never really dominant on either side of the ball
November 28th, 2022 at 10:35 AM ^
Nobody knows is the correct answer I think? That said, I agree with your scenarios. The interesting this is, if they rank USC at 4 this week, how can you 'punish' them for playing an extra game? Just seems logically incoherent to rank USC over OSU this week and not again next week just because OSU or Bama can't lose this week.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:43 AM ^
I agree. Tomorrow night's rankings should be the final rankings.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:47 AM ^
I agree...and I think the current top four are in a very strong position. Michigan and Georgia are likely 1 and 2 no matter what.
November 28th, 2022 at 12:10 PM ^
Even if Georgia loses to LSU in the SEC championship game? They definitely still make the CFP, but do you think they still hold the #2 seed? If USC and TCU win convincingly, GA could fall to #4 with a loss, but probably not that far.
November 28th, 2022 at 3:22 PM ^
#4? That is a good one. Better chance they lose and stay at number one somehow. I will say this if you give me the option:
-OSU first round beating from Georgia
-OSU close win over a much less talented PAC12 team in the rose bowl (again)
I think Id rather them finish the season 0-2.
OSU can have some fun with a Rose bowl win playing a less talented team in a bowl game for the 48th time in a row.
November 28th, 2022 at 11:24 AM ^
This was the same argument that was made by MSU the last time they made the BIG 10 Championship game and lost. Michigan jumped them in the standings and got a better bowl. I remember laughing, heartily, about this. I prefer it in the current format. If you are the better team, prove it.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:37 AM ^
It's BS that the championship game can only hurt the teams in it from a CFP perspective. The playoff should be set now with the top 4 and the results of championship games only affect the seeding. Alabama/OSU passing TCU/USC while sitting at home makes no sense.
November 28th, 2022 at 3:23 PM ^
This is a very good point. I guess the problem would be if #5 was in a game this weekend. Then there is a problem with that.
November 28th, 2022 at 5:27 PM ^
Alabama/OSU passing TCU/USC while sitting at home makes no sense.
Norte Dame has done this a few times. Snuck in without playing a conf. title game. Another reason to hate ND.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:39 AM ^
I actually think LSU has a shot at knocking off GA.....
TCU had to come back from a three score deficit to beat KSU earlier this season, KSU can pull the upset here.
Michigan will roll on Purdue and USC will take care of business vs. Utah.
where does that leave the CFP?
1. Michigan
2. USC or GA
3. USC or GA
4. ohio.....
no fuckin' way.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:45 AM ^
No they don't LSU is bad. They are very similar to USC, a one trick pony. A QB that creates havoc when things breakdown and he's able to get out of the pocket. Williams is way better, but he's their whole offense. The SEC is bad this year, but Georgia is good.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:52 AM ^
LSU did beat Bama so they are capable. Georgia almost lost to Missouri, beat Kentucky by 10, and was up by 3 against GT at halftime. I give Georgia a 75 percent chance of winning this game.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:27 PM ^
LSU has looked very mediocre away from Baton Rogue.
In their four games not played in BR: they beat Auburn (5-7) by four points, beat Florida (6-6) by ten points, beat Arkansas (6-6) by three points and lost to TAMU (5-7) by fifteen points.
Checks to see if SEC championship game is played in Baton Rogue...<confirms it is not>
Conclusion: LSU is going to get curb stomped by Georgia.
November 28th, 2022 at 12:21 PM ^
I think TCU’s in regardless, unless they get blasted (3+ score loss).
November 28th, 2022 at 12:43 PM ^
Jayden Daniels is (a) LSU's only hope and (b) in a walking boot. NGMI.
November 28th, 2022 at 5:12 PM ^
I worry about this too. I don’t want to play OSU in the semifinals so if Georgia and Michigan win as expected on Saturday I don’t see the committee putting OSU at #3 even if TCU and USC both lose. But if Georgia loses then I agree a 1v4 rematch is a possibility.
I’m rooting for chalk because fuck Ohio. But we really need at least Georgia to win so we can play TCU or USC in semis.
Now if we get to play OSU in LA to win the national championship, I’m good with that!
November 28th, 2022 at 10:39 AM ^
I that was too ugly to be on here twice....
November 28th, 2022 at 10:41 AM ^
We will find out tomorrow as if Alabama is #5 it's all a moot point because if a spot opens they will jump in it.
If osu is #5 I think they need a USC loss because I 100% think TCU will stay in the top 4, even with a loss unless they get absolutely shell shocked. They are 12-0 and their biggest win was against a KSU team that was ranked the same as the psu team osu beat.
So then if USC loses...and it seems a lot of people think they will lose...that #5 team steps in. I actually think there are pretty high odds osu steps into the playoff here.
I'm actually rooting for alabama to be #5 tomorrow and then this is likely a done deal.
November 28th, 2022 at 1:02 PM ^
I dont think they can put Bama at 5.
Paper soft schedule and two losses shouldn’t put you above a 1 loss team that has road win vs a top 10 team.
November 28th, 2022 at 2:13 PM ^
Yes, let's talk about Bama. Two loss team, didn't win the division. Best win = 1 pt win over TX with Ewers out. Two narrow losses but also one-score wins over TX, TX A&M, and Miss. And same record as TN and lost the head to head. Why does Bama get in before TN (not a Vols fan but still)?
November 28th, 2022 at 10:46 AM ^
No way TCU is in if they lose
November 28th, 2022 at 10:52 AM ^
For scenario 3, I'm 70/30 on the 1-loss TCU over 1-loss OSU prediction. Ultimately I think they're pretty even and they'll choose conference diversity + not punishing teams for playing an extra game and put TCU in.
Who in for scenario 4 for you? Alabama and OSU both? Seems unlikely to me.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:56 AM ^
Maybe its cynicism but i see Bama getting the nod at 3 and OSU sneaking back in. I don't believe that TCU is the better team than anOSU.
This has not been vintage Alabama or Ohio but just look at TCU's results and it is underwhelming to say the least
November 28th, 2022 at 2:54 PM ^
The Committee rarely makes sense but I disagree. I think they'll handle TCU correctly and I think the top 3 are in no matter what. I think it comes down to USC for the final spot be it ranked 3 or 4. If they lose I think they take OSU but I don't think they should. Again, punishing a team that had to play another game over a team that just lost by 22 at home is fucked in my mind. But they love OSU for the brand name.
I'd stick with a 2 loss USC and then have a 2 loss Bama over them but they won't do that. USC has to win to get in. They have to beat the only team that beat them.
Now, the pure chaos scenario is all 4 lose or 3 of the 4. The odds that chalk holds is very slim, IMO. It's CFB and two of the four games are rematches. It's hard to beat a team twice. TCU is being asked to and USC has to play the only team to beat them.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:50 AM ^
Completely disagree that TCU would still be in if they lose.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:55 AM ^
I don't want to play OSU again. That's the only thing I care about. This season no matter what happens from here (OK, beat Purdue at least) has been a dream. The only thing that could damage that is losing to OSU in the playoffs. Sure would be epic to beat them, but I'd rather play someone else
November 28th, 2022 at 12:20 PM ^
All I have to say about this is, IF OSU makes it in -- and I do think they have a very good shot at doing so -- make them the 4 seed. Here's what concerns me: OSU as the 3 seed, meaning, we'd get them in the opening round of the playoffs. I DO NOT want that.
If OSU is the 4-seed, match em up against Georgia, and then if the universe aligns itself in some weird way, and OSU actually helps our chances by eliminating the 1 seed, and we take care of business against TCU/USC, we'd be playing OSU for all the marbles. Could we handle that? LOL.
November 28th, 2022 at 1:34 PM ^
I feel the same way. And it's not that I think UM definitely would lose a rematch.
The three 12-0 teams should be locks.
While I agree with others that USC shouldn't be punished for appearing in a title game, there's little doubt they'd be out with a loss.
Which leaves Alabama-OSU. Pundit sentiments seem split (and I've sampled a borderline OCD-level amount). I understand the rationale for both: not wanting a two-loss team, not rewarding a one-loss team that got crushed at home and waited for someone else to lose so they could back in.
I guess there could have still been a case for Tennessee if Hooker hadn't been injured (my understanding is the committee does weigh injuries).
Roll Tide ... all the way to No. 5.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:57 AM ^
I could see USC jumping TCU if they blow out Utah to avenge their previous close loss. Especially if TCU has to pull one out late against a 4-loss team. I do think TCU is in though, even with a loss. Not sure who I want to see at 3 (assuming a UM win). Both quarterbacks can be scary good.
November 28th, 2022 at 3:44 PM ^
You are doing the playoff committees heavy lifting for them. No its stays as its always been if all win out. No shenanigans.
November 28th, 2022 at 11:00 AM ^
Rooting for chalk at this point. I like the TCU/USC matchup for Michigan far better than OSU/Bama
November 28th, 2022 at 11:08 AM ^
A 22 pt home loss should eliminate OSU. Don't punish USC for playing an extra game against a top ~10 team. USC's losses would be 1 pt on the road and then presumably <10 pts at a neutral site.
November 28th, 2022 at 11:13 AM ^
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-college-football-predictions/
Nate Silver's 538.com has Michigan, Georgia, TCU and USC in that order right now.
Chances of winning title games:
Michigan 87%
Georgia 79%
TCU 57%
USC 48% - slight underdog to Utah
In every scenarios, UM and UG are in, win or lose.
If the first three win and USC loses, they have OSU in as the 4th team.
If both USC and TCU lose, they have Kansas State as #3 and OSU as #4. Not a scenario I've seen anywhere else.
And if everybody loses, oddly enough, they have TCU and Kansas State joining the Wolverines and Bulldogs. Again, not a scenario I've elsewhere.
November 28th, 2022 at 11:56 AM ^
Yeah, I find it hard to believe that 9-3 Kansas State is a contender for the playoffs. 538 thinks they are almost 50% to make it if they beat TCU. Strange.
November 28th, 2022 at 12:16 PM ^
Silver's site is fun, but highly flawed. Enter this scenario and check the percentages:
Michigan wins, Georgia wins, and TCU and USC both lose. In that scenario, Silver's site kicks out just a 43% chance for an 11-1 OSU squad to make the playoffs, while putting Kansas State's odds at 51%. Kansas State, if they win, would still have THREE LOSSES (10-3).
Um, no how, no way.