Georgia Schedule Deep Dive
We all know Georgia brings a 12-1 record and a supposedly generational defense into the Orange Bowl where Michigan will be fodder in the maw of a SEC hegemon-ster ruling over CFB. But ain't they played nobody? Let's find out:
Georgia suffered a slow motion blowout at the hands of Alabama. Not all that different from Michigan controlling OSU in a close blowout (+15). Surely this was due to Georgia's murderer's row schedule leading into the SEC championship game. The time and attention paid to the under bosses surely took Georgia's focus away from game prep for Bama. Let's take a look (schedule in reverse order):
@ Georgia Tech (3-9) (2-6) [Clemson beat by 6, NIU beat by 1, ND beat by 55]
vs. Charleston Southern (4-6)
@Tenn (7-5) (4-4)
Missouri (6-6) (3-5)
(n) Florida (6-6) (2-6), coach fired
Kentucky (9-3) (5-3) [Best W, home vs LSU]
@Auburn (6-6) (3-5) [Lost to Penn State by 8]
Arkansas (8-4) (4-4) [probably their best win based on transitive wins and close Bama loss]
@Vanderbilt (2-10) (0-8)
South Carolina (6-6)(3-5)
UAB (LOL - Who Cares)
Clemson (Yes, that Clemson but not THAT Clemson)
To be fair, these are all Ws of course but I submit that Georgia's schedule of 7 home games and 4 road games is wholly unimpressive (@Tenn, @Vand, @GT, @Auburn). Their only 'good' wins are at home and the rest of the schedule being Big Ten West level-- at best.
Before we get too excited, the defense didn't have many games that Michigan fans find annoying because an overmatched team seems to find success with College Crappe to muddy up an otherwise stellar statistical day. They stopped bad teams like very good teams should. They are of course still a huge obstacle with very talented players but an 8 point favorite? Guess we'll see. Go Blue!
December 6th, 2021 at 10:33 AM ^
You know you're gonna get slammed for that double negative, don't you?
No, they really haven't played anyone. Arkansas, Auburn, Clemson. Good teams, but nothing that deserved the heap of praise these guys got. We are coming in with a truck load of confidence and swagger, to go along with talent. It is going to be a mega collosal game, Go Blue ?!
December 6th, 2021 at 10:35 AM ^
Ha! Thought my intentionality would have been obvious.
December 6th, 2021 at 10:48 AM ^
I should have left 'Mega Colon' in there that my phone autocorrected to, lol
December 6th, 2021 at 11:07 AM ^
I wish the game was this Saturday. UM riding high right now and playing the best I've seen in a long time. Hate the layoff.
December 6th, 2021 at 12:20 PM ^
I'm with you on momentum but I think the time to get All and Corum truly healthy along with other guys who might be a bit banged up back in top form is worth the layoff.
I think Corum and All being 100% is vital for our run game in this one.
Go Blue.
December 6th, 2021 at 1:03 PM ^
I 100% agree with you from a playing the game standpoint. Our boys have shown a lot the last 4 weeks and where they are as a team. The one thing I am looking forward to in the next 3-4 weeks that we have never been able to experience, is our team being talked about, hyped up, and getting a lot of attention leading up to the playoff games. This matters to recruits. Harbaugh was doing an interview on ESPN yesterday after the playoff teams were set and mentioned he had to leave to go out recruiting. We finally have made it over multiple important hurdles (beat OSU, win B1G championship and make the playoffs). Let's see if we can keep it rolling!
December 6th, 2021 at 11:35 AM ^
We're also coming in with grudge on our side. Did you see the complete lack of excitement from the team when the 2-spot was announced? There wasn't any whooping and hollering at making the playoffs. There wasn't any excitement at the 2-seed. There was a polite golf clap.
Either that was dismay at #2, or they just didn't care one way or the other.
Personally, I prefer the dismay angle - nobody believes in you.
December 6th, 2021 at 1:00 PM ^
Part of me wishes Michigan was playing them on Saturday. Coming off a huge win, clicking on all cylinders, UGA probably reeling from their first loss...
December 6th, 2021 at 10:34 AM ^
SEC love nothing more …. plays right into the continued disrespect of Michigan…. play the game … nothing to fear
December 6th, 2021 at 11:05 AM ^
Actually there is no disrespect for Michigan, at least not from Georgia and it's fans. I was listening to ESPNU Radio and it was a Georgia-centric show and there was a lot of woe going down, and a lot of respect for what Michigan is going to bring to the contest. They sort of have a QB issue between Stetson Bennett and JT Daniels. Folks bemoaning how Coach Smart started Fromm over Fields and wondering if he's making a similar mistake this year. Michigan has made a lot of statements this year and the Bulldogs have their attention.
December 6th, 2021 at 12:50 PM ^
I agree
ive not heard any disrespect if this team throughout the year in fact
December 6th, 2021 at 1:02 PM ^
I heard Georgia fans yapping...2 weeks ago, before OSU, then it was "you win 1 big game and suddenly...." But after the loss to Bama, they've been rather muted.
I think for them it's NC or bust, and even if they could manage to beat M (with their lack of trust in the coaches to scheme a win) they'd still have to play Bama again.
December 6th, 2021 at 1:02 PM ^
Georgia is also sort of the Michigan of the SEC - historically quite good in most years but kicked in the balls many times and always expecting pain
December 6th, 2021 at 2:47 PM ^
Disrespect from the committee for one … you know they wanted an SEC championship by putting Bama 1 and Georgia 3,
December 6th, 2021 at 12:35 PM ^
Not disrespect. The #3 team (Alabama) smoked the consensus #1 team. The #2 team (us) smoked a previous #2 team (OSU) and then an overrated #11 team That's why Alabama moved to #1. I see no conspiracy here.
December 6th, 2021 at 1:03 PM ^
Everything to support Bama at #1 should be the reason Georgia should've dropped to #4.
December 6th, 2021 at 10:46 AM ^
There's something to be said for consistently throttling good-but-not-great teams for an entire season, and Georgia certainly did that.
Maybe the 'Bama game will turn out to be an aberration - but yeah, it certainly looked like a team used to having everything easy suddenly out of their depth against a true peer. Some definite parallels to how Michigan and OSU's seasons played out.
December 6th, 2021 at 10:51 AM ^
That's what stood out to me. Michigan finished with two road games against decent to good teams, then played OSU, and then Iowa. Georgia's late season was as soft as can be and they were still unprepared to play a peer.
December 6th, 2021 at 12:26 PM ^
Which two "finishing" road games are you talking about? OSU was at home... The BIG Champ was a neutral site but the fan split was in our favor... PSU was the last tough road game, but that's been 3 games ago now. Maryland was on the road, but I doubt that is what you're referring to.
Generally speaking, I agree with your point. Beating Wisconsin on the road, Nebraska at Night on the road, and PSU on the road in a Helmet Stripe (or whatever the fuck they were calling that) game is a much better road win resume than Georgia has.
December 7th, 2021 at 12:42 AM ^
Michigan finished with two road games against decent to good teams, then played OSU, and then Iowa.
I believe this is to be read as "finished with two road games against decent (Maryland) to good (PSU) teams, then....".
I think the very debateable part is calling each team a 'tier' higher than they deserve: Maryland decent (more like mediocre) and PSU good (more like decent, after the injuries)
December 6th, 2021 at 10:48 AM ^
Defensively they remind me of 2018 Michigan except with more 5 star talent. Great when they can athletically out-match lesser opponents. Exposed when they come up against Bama level receivers.
December 6th, 2021 at 10:49 AM ^
You typed all that out and yet didn't include the scores? Cumong man
10-3 over Clemson
56-7 over UAB
40-13 over South Carolina
62-0 over @Vandy
37-0 over Arkansas (very impressive)
34-10 over @Auburn
30-13 over Kentucky
34-7 over Florida
43-6 over Missouri
41-17 over @Tennessee
56-7 over Charleston Southern
45-0 over @GT
Lost 41-24 to Bama
So yes - not a murder's row schedule IMO. They had one excellent dominant win over a good Arkansas team. They played at home a lot. Their road games were not good teams, depending on how you want to categorize Auburn.
Many of the fancystat type things say Georgia and Michigan's schedules strength are similar though
December 6th, 2021 at 10:56 AM ^
The point is that the scores are irrelevant. They were the surest of sure #1 team because of their dominance all year. I'm suggesting that they were so dominant because the basically played Maryland every week.
December 6th, 2021 at 11:44 AM ^
If the scores are irrelevant, how can we evaluate if they were dominant or not?
How can one do a deep dive on a schedule without, ya know, evaluating the results of said games?
December 6th, 2021 at 1:27 PM ^
For those new to college football in 2021, Georgia dominated their entire schedule up to losing to Bama by 17.
December 6th, 2021 at 11:05 AM ^
I like the scores for a more complete look at Georgia's season.
December 6th, 2021 at 11:52 AM ^
Agreed. Nobody said Georgia was great because of big wins against fearsome competition - they said they were great because they had utterly dominated their schedule. They were 12-0 and none of the games had been in serious doubt.
One stat I saw was that, prior to Bama taking the lead on Saturday, Georgia had trailed for a grand total of 20 minutes of game time all season. That's insane.
December 6th, 2021 at 4:27 PM ^
Not excluding any games like you did for Georgia, quick scan of our schedule it looks like we are right around the same 21-22 minutes depending on how the seconds add up with 8.5 or so against Nebraska, 5 against MSU, 2.5 against Penn State, and 5.5 against OSU.
December 6th, 2021 at 1:10 PM ^
I'd also like to see overall, O and D SP+ (or whatever fancy stat) for each opponent, and 247 talent composite for each opponent and the same numbers from UGA. There could be a pattern there with them beating up on for example bad SP+ offenses with lesser talent.
No offense OP, but this wasn't so much a deep dive as a leisurely swim.
December 6th, 2021 at 10:51 AM ^
Had Oklahoma St not fallen an inch short, Georgia should have been left out of the playoff. Doubtful the committee would have seen it that way, but when your schedule is that bad you don't get the benefit of the doubt for a loss and not winning your conference.
December 6th, 2021 at 10:59 AM ^
Given that Georgia was seeded #3 and Cincy was seeded #4, I'm not sure who would have been excluded. My guess is that it would suck to be a Bearcat given the love of the committee for the ess-eee-cee.
December 6th, 2021 at 10:57 AM ^
The team on B1G Live were talking about Georgia's preseason ranking and the rise to #1 as season progressed. They started high (SEC favoritism was discussed) and stayed their as they continued to win - especially the early win against the mighty (and also highly rated) Clemson. There was no real meat to their ranking
I came away thinking that they weren't too impressed with the Dawgs, either.
December 6th, 2021 at 11:05 AM ^
On the other hand I was listening to the ESPN talking heads yesterday discussing Georgia's schedule and they were making the case that the Clemson game was a "big win" because we thought they were going to be really good and Georgian didnt know they werent when they played them.
I shit you not. Because the MEDIA thought Clemson was going to be juggernaut Clemson it qualifies as a "big win" for Georgia. The SEC confirmation bias is something to behold. All wins are good wins (because the SEC opponent is so tough) and all losses are good losses (again, because the SEC opponent is so tough).
it is was it is. All i can say is it would be beyond sweet if Michigan can do what OSU could not do and that is vanquish two SEC teams en route the national championship. I like our chances!
December 6th, 2021 at 11:37 AM ^
My favorite commentary from the ESPN talking heads was the discussion about Alabama's offensive line. The ESPN brain trust was really impressed by Alabama's offensive line and how, in the course of a week, the Alabama offensive line had improved so drastically from their disasterous performance against Auburn.
Not one of the commentators considered, even for a second, that maybe, just maybe, Alabama's offensive line didn't miracously and suddenly improve their technique and strength and instead their improved performance could have had something to do with the fact that Georgia's D line just really isn't that good when faced with top tier competition.
December 6th, 2021 at 4:07 PM ^
One thing they all ignore is, beside the loss, Bama had several really close calls to Florida and Auburn—won by a whisker.
Georgia and Bama are both very beatable
December 6th, 2021 at 11:02 AM ^
Lots more will be said and written about how good Georgia is and rightfully so. This Michigan team has been underestimated all year. Saturday was Shock and Awe for me against Iowa.
This will be a good matchup for both teams. I like Michigan's chances at this time. I also like the Michigan is an underdog which means they have nothing to lose. It is always good to look at the glass half full.
December 6th, 2021 at 11:09 AM ^
They're an excellent team by any standard and mirror a lot of what we do.
Everyone is talking about Georgia defense, rightly.
But I'm most concerned about their TEs, especially Brock Bowers.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4432665/brock-bowers
We're built to get a small lead, hold it, and eat up clock. Taking down another team's red zone efficiency is key. And TE Bowers will make that hard. I'm concerned we don't have an adequate response to him in the end zone.
December 6th, 2021 at 11:27 AM ^
Bowers, George Pickens, Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean are far superior players at their respective positions than anyone Michigan has seen this year.
This game will be an epic struggle. Winnable, but will require near-perfect execution.
December 6th, 2021 at 11:37 AM ^
George Pickens? Like Pickens charge at Gettysberg?
s/
December 6th, 2021 at 11:44 AM ^
Jordan Davis https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4381558/jordan-davis is an absolute beast.
Jalen Carter's numbers are about the same on the DL too https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4685759/jalen-carter
And Nakobe Dean https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4426340/nakobe-dean such a potent LB.
So even recognizing Georgia's schedule wasn't brutal, they've got one hell of a lot of talent.
Their front seven rivals the best in the country as they held even Alabama to only 115 yards rushing.
I agree with how you put it: this is doable but the margin of error is soveryveryverythistight.
We won't have to fall behind very much before a monkey wrench is thrown into our strategy. The exact same thing could be said for Georgia, btw, but they are more capable at mounting a comeback than we are.
December 6th, 2021 at 12:18 PM ^
Bennett will have to play better than on Saturday to mount a successful comeback. I wasn’t impressed with their offense, other than Bowers. Hard to believe he’s a true freshman
December 6th, 2021 at 12:25 PM ^
Their front 7 is very good, but to say that holding Bama to 115 is some incredible accomplishment is a little overstated. Bama’s line was abused by Auburn and then I don’t think people remember they averaged just 0.8 ypc against a 6-6 LSU team. Bama has issues in trenches while still having great skill talent
December 6th, 2021 at 12:50 PM ^
Easy to hold Alabama to 115 yds rushing when you are giving up 500 yds passing. Not to mention that vaunted Auburn D held Alabama to 70 yds rushing the week prior
December 6th, 2021 at 12:13 PM ^
Similar things were said of Ohio State.
December 6th, 2021 at 5:19 PM ^
This is what concerns me about this game. Not gonna be easy, but doable.
December 6th, 2021 at 11:25 AM ^
Who’s ready to fuck some shit up on 12/31?
December 6th, 2021 at 11:36 AM ^
Same as OSU did they play a ranked team on the road?
December 6th, 2021 at 11:42 AM ^
I haven't watched a lot of Georgia this year, but watching Alabama eviscerate them was a sight. One downfield threat... And he was OSU's 4th stringer!!! Michigan has played - and beaten soundly - a bevy of top 10 SP+ defenses this year, OSU was #15. So UGA has the #1 defense? That murderers row they played might have something to do with that. They didn't get a second of pressure on Young, and still couldn't cover anyone!
I think Michigan's offense will be far more diverse than anything they've seen all year. Yes, that includes Bama. Michigan has elite speed on the edges and in the backfield, and a very mobile OL. Since MSU, when the pass game opened up, what team has stopped UM from moving the ball?
...
Exactly...
December 6th, 2021 at 8:24 PM ^
This is my take on the game as well... I mean, Vegas must know something? But honestly, yeah I think we beat them by multiple TDs.
December 6th, 2021 at 11:56 AM ^
I did the same sort of exercise last night. Their schedule isn't really all that, but they are a very good team. Hard to say what level they are at, given their schedule, but it is somewhere between MSU, OSU and Alabama on a bad day. Point being they are a very good opponent who is favored over us and should beat us. ...but they are beatable and I feel good about our chances.