Technical Flyover: Can Michigan Win The Game?
Sooner or later, Michigan is going to win The Game again.
When it happens, it’s liable to happen in a year when it shouldn’t have happened, so to speak. It must be granted that the last time the Wolverines came out ahead in this game was due to special circumstances in Columbus back in 2011, but eventually they'll win one they "shouldn't."
Should they win in 2021? Probably not.
Ohio State opened as 7.5 point favorites in this game after obliterating the Michigan State Spartans 56-7 last Saturday. The Buckeyes appear to be clicking on all cylinders right now and have the most fearsome offensive lineup in the country. Their defense had a bad, terrible, no good start to the year but last week held Michigan State to 224 total yards and seven points.
It’s easy to foresee ways in which Michigan could lose this game. The Buckeyes are a difficult puzzle to solve on offense and their defense has a lot of talent which can come to bear when they are able to play sound, cohesive schemes. New defensive coordinator Matt Barnes went with a youth movement and they have second-year players littered across the defensive backfield playing in some of their normal 1-high coverages mixed with man-quarters.
It’s not impossible though. Ohio State probably isn’t quite the juggernaut they’ve appeared to be and Michigan has some good players on their team as well. Good players who’ve been focused on winning this game for a very long time…
[A PATHWAY FOR MICHIGAN TO WIN THE GAME AFTER THE JUMP]
How to lose to Ohio State
It’s pretty easy, nearly everyone is doing it.
The best way to lose to Ohio State is to let Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave get behind your defense.
Jackson Smith-Njigba is ostensibly their leading receiver. At 6-foot-0 and 198 pounds, he’s proven pretty capable and resilient working crossing routes in the middle of the field which C.J. Stroud routinely hits. Currently the ninja is at 69 catches (team lead) for 1,132 yards and six touchdowns.
Here are the numbers for the two outside receivers:
Garrett Wilson: 60 catches, 939 yards, 11 touchdowns
Chris Olave: 58 catches, 848 yards, 13 touchdowns
This is where they kill you. Safeties get drawn in trying to match the crossing routes over the middle and then Wilson or Olave are running a post or a fly behind everyone and Stroud is sitting back in a well protected pocket and launching away.
Of course you can’t just sell out to stop the pass and get away with it. Treveyon Henderson is a bit inexperienced but he understands how to run over a 5-man box and has over 1,000 yards this season at 7.3 ypc with 14 touchdowns. The offensive line has multiple blue chips and the sole, humble 3-star is 6-foot-8, 360 pound right tackle Dawand Jones. It’s a big, unpleasant unit to match up against, especially if you don't have the benefit of numbers in the box to match them.
So what gives? You don’t really want to sit in a true Cover 2 defense and let them run the ball, it’s too easy for them. You also don’t really want to give them any 1-on-1 matchups for their NFL wideouts, any of which can toast you at a given moment. If you drop everyone deep off their receivers they don’t typically struggle to throw adjustable routes underneath for easy gains...so what’s to be done?
On the other side of the ball, Ohio State has a number of great athletes across the defense and they’re designed to challenge your passing game and outnumber the run with liberal deployment of strong safety Ronnie Hickman.
The 205 pound second-year player from Arizona leads the team in tackles and it’s not close (he has 84, the linebackers split time and are in the 30s and 40s). They’ll play 1-rat and he’ll play down in the box, or they’ll play Cover 4-man and he’ll sit on the boundary hash at a shallow depth and rob crossing routes and close against the run game. Consequently, they’re deferring a lot of stress to the cornerbacks and trusting them to hold up 1-on-1 outside in man coverage.
Kerry Coombs has ultimately managed to get their cornerbacks going again, Denzel Burke is the top guy at left corner and has 10 break-ups, Cameron Brown holds down the right side and will tend to play less press-man coverage than Burke but he still gets left to his lonesome a fair amount.
Ostensibly, the advantages against this team are to throw the ball to the 1-on-1 matchups they offer outside and to hope their freshman running back can’t consistently beat you all day against two-high coverages designed to stop their passing game. I think there’s a better way.
Setting the terms
Ohio State wants this to be a high scoring game which comes down to Cade McNamara and the Michigan wideouts trying to out-duel Stroud and the Buckeye skill talent. The odds of Michigan winning such a game are virtually nil. Even if they scheme up a lot of opportunities for their offense it’s not likely they’d fare well in a high possession game where Ohio State gets a lot of shots at solving their defense and landing big plays.
So priority one for Michigan is making sure this game is played on their own terms.
Secondly, Ohio State plays a lot of man coverage for a reason, two really. One, they want their defensive backs to have a chance to dictate the terms of the game. Coombs is one of the best position coaches in the country and has been cranking out press-man cornerbacks for the NFL for a long time now.
Secondly, Buckeye is more comfortable with Kerry Coombs’ charges defending the point of attack with support from their D-line pass-rush than entrusting this game to their linebackers.
All year Ohio State has only played three teams who wanted to beat them in the trenches by controlling the game on the ground. The Minnesota Gophers, Oregon Ducks, and Nebraska Cornhuskers who gave Ohio State their three toughest games of the season.
Michigan State's dependence on spread formations and spacing made them vulnerable to Ohio State loading the box in man coverage and daring Payton Thorne to beat Stroud in a shootout. Thorne attempted 36 passes while the Spartans were only able to run the ball six times with Kenneth Walker III.
The Buckeyes don’t want the game to come down to how well their various second-year linebackers fit the run with the aid of second-year safety Ronnie Hickman. It’s not a great set-up for them.
Step one for Michigan then is to do what they’ve been doing all year on offense, lining up with a multitude of different formations and regularly employing two or three tight ends at a time, and hitting the Buckeyes with the full gamut of run game schemes. Outside zone, tight zone, pin and pull, Power-O, D-gap power, counter, anything and everything which asks the linebackers to read keys against different formations and make good fits.
An eight-man front against a double tight end formation only gets you so far on defense, the offense can account for the extra defender and create gaps which necessitate his involvement rather than making him a wrecking ball. Michigan should even consider regularly throwing in 13 personnel with Erick All motioning in and out of the box to serve as a receiver or blocker.
Once Michigan starts pulling guards or sliding tight ends around with extended surfaces, you move gaps and Hickman goes from being a 205 pound free-hitter over the top to being a primary fitter at the point of attack.
Would Ohio State just sub in extra linebackers to match up? Ideally, yes. You take your chances with Hassan Haskins running behind Luke Schoonmaker blocking a back-up linebacker who’s trying to suss out all of Harbaugh’s run game machinations in the biggest game of the year. Get them to load the box with linebackers and then motion All out to feast on whoever is left to play coverage.
If this worked it would allow to Michigan hold the ball for sustained drives, picking up a ton of first downs, and staying in the game on the scoreboard so they aren’t pressured into leaning on McNamara. Obviously there will be big 3rd downs which come up, assume Michigan has been working on a variety of man-beating route combinations with rubs and crossers. They fell short executing those down the stretch against Michigan State and need to be better in this game.
There really is good reason for Michigan to believe they can hammer away at Ohio State’s inexperienced defensive front and pick up steady gains. Oregon did it with a weaker and less multi-faceted offensive front. The Ohio State defense who lost to Oregon is still there somewhere, buried under the scarlet, grey, and offensive deluges which have shielded them from exposure.
Step two is not allowing the Ohio State offense to dictate how this game flows.
You can’t maintain the hammering process on Ohio State’s defense if Stroud is throwing it over your head early and often.
Instead the Wolverines need Stroud working to maintain drives through the air against their pass-rush, worrying about what Daxton Hill is up to and trying to stay ahead of the chains without the benefit of quick-strike scores. They’ll have to mix coverages and keep Ryan Day and his quarterback guessing, but the best plan of action would be to play match 3 and concede some 1-on-1s outside but to play with a very deep safety.
The goal of the deep safety? Don’t let Stroud throw a long touchdown pass. All Buckeye points must come as a result of a sustained drive. Wilson, Olave, and the ninja will win their battles on the Michigan nickel and cornerbacks and catch passes, but those cannot result in long scores. Meanwhile Stroud needs to be looking at a confusing box which discourages runs and has him and his line guessing about where pressures are coming from.
Can Ohio State execute a pro-style passing game up and down the field more efficiently than Michigan can execute a pro-style running game? That’s the question the Wolverines want answered in this game.
The answer might be “yes,” but if Michigan succeeds in getting the question in, there’s a definite chance it’s actually “no.”
November 23rd, 2021 at 9:43 AM ^
I believe
November 23rd, 2021 at 11:04 AM ^
I believe that
November 23rd, 2021 at 7:16 PM ^
I believe that we
November 27th, 2021 at 12:06 AM ^
I BELIEVE THAT WE WILL WIN
November 23rd, 2021 at 9:47 AM ^
So you're telling me there's a chance?
November 23rd, 2021 at 9:52 AM ^
I expect heavy running game dose in this one from Michigan (vs what they did to Maryland) and HH to have a game of his life. Occasional wheel route to kill the cheating LBs from OSU.
Michigan eeks out a win. Go blue.
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:30 AM ^
I hope that us slowly pilfering in more run schemes is the coaches' way of setting us to do exactly what Ian is saying here. The last few weeks, we've added so many run schemes that you can't count on us using any particular one on any given play (so linebackers have to think). We've worked on short yardage throws to avoid running into stacked boxes on 3rd and short (though we still run into said boxes way too often). And we've also started taking advantage of man beaters to great success (Andrel Anthony going 90 yards against MSU or Erick All going 50 yards to the house vs Penn State). Not to mention RB screens (Haskins had a few vs Penn State) and wheel routes (Donovan Edwards you mad lad). To my untrained eye, it appears Gattis and company are preparing to do exactly what Ian has laid out here (not to mention that probably have a few wrinkles left up our sleeve like maybe JJ running a triple option?)
Pick on their linebackers (like Alabama did to great success in the natty) and show 'em that we got some mutha fucking playmakers on offense too (All, Haskins, Corum, Anthony, Sainristil, Edwards, McCarthy, Johnson, Henning, etc.)
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:46 AM ^
Michigan started the season with a healthy variety of run looks and has kept the variety coming. Not always great at executing every look, but they can run them.
November 23rd, 2021 at 11:04 AM ^
Careful, this is coming dangerously close to Lucy talk for you. ;)
November 23rd, 2021 at 12:55 PM ^
the evils of lucy was all around me
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:52 AM ^
Let’s get all the RBs out there on a play with JJ at qb. Motion Corum and Edwards around. Who do you stop? Run or pass? Haskins would be a good fullback or decoy or pass blocker.
November 23rd, 2021 at 11:05 AM ^
Sacrifice 7 points and absolutely light up McCarthy.
November 23rd, 2021 at 2:36 PM ^
On the flipside, we definitely saw a massive dropoff once Stroud left the game. Given the chance, you light him up as well, and see how he handles the Clifford Treatment.
November 23rd, 2021 at 3:15 PM ^
What about Cade?
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:38 AM ^
Ekes
But also eeks
November 23rd, 2021 at 9:54 AM ^
Good stuff. I definitely agree that the key here is to force OSU to drive the whole field. They'll do it a bunch, but if you force some field goals and force a mistake or two while shortening the game, you absolutely have a shot.
One question - to my eyes the last couple weeks Michigan gave two inferior rushing teams a fairly light box and dared them to move the ball that way in PSU and Maryland. Both of those teams had a little more success on the ground than expected but limited passing game and big play success. It sort of felt like OSU prep in that regard. Is my read there accurate, or was that something else entirely?
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:34 AM ^
I wouldn't read too much into how Michigan played our last few opponents. They tended to be one-dimensional (or in Indiana's case, zero-dimensional), so MacDonald adjusted the defense accordingly. PSU and Maryland having above-average rushing days was acceptable, because their biggest threats were their QBs.
OSU's a different beast. It has NFL talent everywhere, so he can't overplay anything. But he can't just sit in a base defense either, so everyone's been saying he'll need to mix up the coverages and blitzes and keep OSU's players guessing. But he kind of does that anyway, which is why he was hired.
At best I presume the same as Ian; Michigan needs to keep a deep safety or two and let OSU gash their short-handed fronts, maybe gamble now and then to get some stops. If the safety or safeties can just keep OSU out of the end zone, we can tighten things up in the red zone. Mind you that's not a good situation for Michigan, but it gives them a fighting chance that you don't get when OSU's throwing 40-yard TDs.
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:50 AM ^
Yup. Big problem for Michigan in the last few games vs OSU is their drives end in TD’s not FG’s.
They had to kick three FG’s against Penn State. Four against Nebraska. Thats what kept those teams in the game despite OSU racking up huge yardage numbers.
They might get 7 scoring drives. But holding them to three FG’s keeps them at 37, holding them to four keeps them at 33. The difference between 49 and 37 is massive to Michigan’s chances of winning this game.
November 23rd, 2021 at 2:32 PM ^
Thank you for the math linked to TDs and FGs. Many are saying Michigan needs 45 to win but by your math (and great defensive execution) Michigan can with with 35 or 38 which I think is more achievable.
November 23rd, 2021 at 3:22 PM ^
Same #s keep popping up-33-37, wasn’t that the sparty score? Time for the 5* to play like their billing...Dax, JJ, Hinton, DE- somebody has to make a game changing play to win this.
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:55 AM ^
Biggest threats were the QB's, but also in a game like Maryland the only way Maryland was winning that game is by going ham on deep and intermediate throws. Same would have been true of PSU if we didn't spot them an entire quarter with zero offense on our end. Bleeding a few runs here and there was an acceptable cost.
November 23rd, 2021 at 3:17 PM ^
First priority on D is pressuring Stroud so that he gets beat up some and rattled a bit. While I agree we need a safety back, we need to gamble to a degree and be the aggressor, taking the game to them and not just sitting back and giving up 7-12 yards every play.
Also, figure out how you are going to switch up players with OSU playing tempo.
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:35 AM ^
Michigan gave two inferior rushing teams a fairly light box and dared them to move the ball that way
I 100% agree. I think we were testing out the theory of selling out harder to kill the pass than the run and against Penn State/Maryland, it absolutely worked. It would have worked against Michigan State too if they didn't have KWIII to Barry Sanders his way out of broken play after broken play (not to mention the tempo issue that I believe we've fixed by having Michael Barrett around).
Let Ohio State have 5 yard carry after 5 yard carry. They might do it, but that's not how they wanna win, because doing so reduces how often they get to score and increases the odds of a fumble or negative play stalling a drive.
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:48 AM ^
Part of that success was due to the fact that PSU and Maryland do not have the kind of offensive line that OSU has and Henderson is much more explosive than either of those two teams’ RB’s.
I do wonder if MacDonald goes back to that 5 or 6 man lines we saw against MSU. Yes we got gashed, but Michigan was also often successful at stacking KWIII at the line. Better discipline from the line and safeties can help, though the downside is you’re asking a LOT out of Ross there.
As this piece notes, there isn’t really one strategy that’s going to work consistently. MacDonald will have to mix it up and keep OSU guessing. Sometimes we will get burned. But making sure when they guess wrong you get result in sacks or turnovers vs when they guess right it doesn’t end up in six is the key. A little bit of luck will be needed. But I do agree, simply laying back and playing cover 2 is unlikely to be sustainable.
November 23rd, 2021 at 12:36 PM ^
If you put a 5 or 6 man line out there it'll be bombs away. Kw3 and Henderson are not the same backs. Key to stopping Henderson is not letting him get up to speed. Kw3 has better vision and acceleration.
None of this will matter if refs don't call holding.
November 23rd, 2021 at 5:26 PM ^
A large % of refs in BIG are from Ohio.
November 23rd, 2021 at 12:50 PM ^
Against Indiana MacDonald went more to a traditional 4-3 because he knew there was little chance they were going to throw the ball with their freshman QB. I'm sure that was in response to what Walker did.
More guys on the line means more space if the rb gets to the next level again see Walker.
PSU and Maryland got their yardage once they were beyond the line.
I don't imagine they'll go with a 4-3 against OSU though but it wouldn't be out of the question. You'd move Dax back to safety to help cover the deep burners and give them a look they didn't expect.
November 23rd, 2021 at 11:42 AM ^
I don't love this idea as much, and I thought about it.
I think it's too easy to let them run with Henderson on a light box. Maybe goad them into it and then drop a safety late.
Overall my point is more, "don't try to cover everything, instead confuse and harry Stroud."
November 23rd, 2021 at 9:55 AM ^
But avoid second and 9 to start each drive at all costs.
Those are 3-and-out-death.
I'm not worried about scoring too quickly. I could live with that.
I'm worried about going 3-and-out too quickly.
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:43 AM ^
Reality is that’s going to happen from time to time when Michigan runs on first down. What worries me a bit about this game plan is that Ohio State’s defensive line is quite capable of holding up and preventing push from OL.
Adding more beef should help when we get to second level, but when you run a lot on first down against this team sometimes you get stacked at the line.
The ways to mitigate that:
1. Haskins being able to turn 1-2 yard gains into 3-4 by falling forward.
2. Mixing in play action/passes off the run action/RPO so that you’re at least paying off some of those stuffs on first down with some chunk passing plays.
3. Ensuring 2nd and 9 can turn into 3rd and 5. Cannot let this OSU pass rush pin its ears back and rely on long-developing routes on 3rd and long. We had the strip sack against PSU and reality is Hayes, Vastardis, Steiner will have their hands full with an elite D-line and blitzes, which they have shown some vulnerability to the past couple of weeks.
Gattis needs an RPS win here.
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:48 AM ^
Yeah, it's easy to say, don't get stuck in second-and-long, but how do you pull that off?
You can pass on first down a lot, but then an incompletion (and we're going to get some) puts you at second and 10 and it's a drive killer.
And Michigan has shown some propensity to getting stuck this way, particularly in crucial second-half possessions where we're in the game but really need to move the football.
November 23rd, 2021 at 5:31 PM ^
This is when you need a mobile QB
November 23rd, 2021 at 9:56 AM ^
This is great breakdown.
So the sweet spot for Michigans tempo is somewhere between “petal to the metal” and “5 minute offense”
I think we probably should get Cade comfortable early with screens, bubbles, and fades. Then get to work.
Michigan can beat beat them, but its gonna come down to stroud can decipher what he is seeing.
November 23rd, 2021 at 9:59 AM ^
Step two is not allowing the Ohio State offense to dictate how this game flows.
You can’t maintain the hammering process on Ohio State’s defense if Stroud is throwing it over your head early and often.
That's the biggest key. MSU got obliterated because they were in a hole right from the start. After OSU went up 14-0 it was basically game over
We might have a shot if OSU doesn't score on their first two drives. If they do, we're basically screwed
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:24 AM ^
Unless we score on our first two drives.
We will need to move the chains and put up points.
We can't just run into stacked boxes, go 3 and out, punt, and play defense like it's 1980. Ohio State will quickly run away from us.
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:38 AM ^
Yup. Game clock aside, run-run-pass-punt is basically the same as a Hail Mary pick on first down. And OSU can score so quickly, game clock doesn't really matter to them. So we might as well equate a three-and-out to a turnover.
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:52 AM ^
Depends. Do we score on one of our first drives?
In its last two home OSU games Michigan has started very strong, and then OSU wore us down and beat us. Obviously it would be bad if OSU scored early, but they're using a creative play script, too--Michigan needs to stay in touch, and the team needs to keep its head in the game, even if there are some blows early. Because there are going to be some blows.
For all of the pain we suffered in 2018, it's worth remembering that the game started badly but that Michigan somehow (and somewhat fortunately) managed to claw back to level at halftime. It was the third quarter where things really fell apart, a situation that was compounded both by loss of morale and the very real loss of Devin Bush, whose absence was very visible in that Paris Campbell end-around TD.
November 23rd, 2021 at 11:00 AM ^
The Paris Campbell end-around TD was the play Bush got hurt on. He took the only angle he had a shot at, which was a damn near impossible one, and got hurt laying out diving for a shoestring tackle.
November 23rd, 2021 at 11:55 AM ^
Incorrect. Bush was hurt with 10:23 to go in the third, when the game was technically still in reach. The Campbell TD happened in the 4th. Overall the defense gave up 4 tds after Bush, who was both the best player and the "quarterback" that was most responsible for making sure the defense was aligned and assigned correctly, left the game.
November 23rd, 2021 at 7:16 PM ^
I remember it differently, but I’ll take your word for it because 1.) I was drinking heavily by that point and 2.) There is no way I’m google searching or clicking any links related to that game.
November 23rd, 2021 at 11:05 AM ^
I never had the feeling that Michigan had a chance to win the game in 2018 even during 1st half. It was a matter of time before OSU opened up the floodgates in the 2nd half. The only reason why it was close in the 1st half was OSU shot themselves in the foot a few times.
Michigan had no chance of beating OSU that year IMO.
November 23rd, 2021 at 11:15 AM ^
Talent vs Talent, they should have been in the game with a chance to win. Hell, that OSU team lost by 4 TD's to PURDUE. With the actual game plans that were employed, I agree, no chance.
November 23rd, 2021 at 12:54 PM ^
OSU with 100% focus and motivation is a different animal. That's an unfortunate part of the rivalry which means Michigan will always get OSU's best shot no matter what, not a team that OSU overlooked because they perceive certain teams to be inferior.
November 23rd, 2021 at 11:39 AM ^
With a healthy Winovich and Bush, that game would have been winnable. (Also: if Brown had been willing to incorporate more zone coverage.)
November 23rd, 2021 at 12:55 PM ^
OSU was moving the ball on Michigan with Bush healthy. Bush got hurt mid-game. It didn't help Michigan defense but OSU offense was cooking against Michigan defense anyway. Winovich's absence didn't help but it may affect a couple plays with his pass rush. OSU OL has stonewalled Michigan all game long which was a bigger problem
November 23rd, 2021 at 1:35 PM ^
Did you think that before The Game or while watching the 1st half?
November 23rd, 2021 at 2:24 PM ^
While watching 1st half, it was clear that OSU would blow the lid off the game once they stop shooting themselves in the foot which they did in the 2nd half.
November 23rd, 2021 at 2:42 PM ^
One of the huge contributors to the loss was the four dropped passes by Michigan. As good as OSU was that year you aren't likely to beat them when you gift them field position on a regular basis.
November 23rd, 2021 at 4:36 PM ^
I'm sorry, but looking at that final score, I just don't see how 4 additional catches could have swung the game in UM's favor significantly... They had our number that day.
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