It's a good idea to throw early, on play-action or just in general, to keep the defense off balance and get a feel for the game before you start to run the ball.
I'm not saying they should line up and call runs the first 20 plays of the game, but wouldn't be shocked or appalled if they did something like they've done in earlier games this season where they throw some early, establish some rhythm, but then end up running the ball 40 times.
I didn't want to spend the whole column on the "you need a pro-style passing attack to win a title" point but the gist is this.
Playoff teams have amazing DL and it's hard to beat great DL and disciplined run defenses in the playoffs. You just become inefficient when your offense is predicated around handing the ball to a predetermined guy at a fixed point in the backfield.
The passing game is more multiple and harder to defend IF done at a high level. Executing it at a pro-caliber is very difficult, that's why mostly only champions can do it. It's the hardest thing to get right in football but when you get it right, it's the hardest thing to stop.
A team with that dimension has a better path to playing efficient offense, wearing down an opponent, and landing shots in the fourth quarter.
Michigan does not have that dimension. But neither does Georgia.
UM may have cracked 100, but it took 44 carries to get there. Which in no small part contributed to the shitty 6/19 3rd down conversion rate.
If they can get to 44 carries vs Georgia that’s a great sign. Means they were able to hold onto the ball and stay in the game. Would definitely take that.
I dunno about Georgia = Wisconsin. May be close in quality but I think this is a little different animal. These DL are like plus sized Rutgers guys.
I accidentally deleted a response here with a left handed thumb but Carpetbagger was explaining that there are lots of Dutch in Iowa and West Virginia and you can identify them by their “Van-“ last names.
If you can't pressure Stroud with Hutch and Ojabo, both of whom are probably drafted after this season, you might as well just stay in the locker room and not come out for this one.
I'd say the more likely scenario is they run a few RPOs, especially early. They've been mixing those in more in recent weeks, as I would have noted last week had I not accidentally deleted my column before finishing.
If/when Michigan comes out in 12/13 personnel, everyone will know what's coming. So if you then slip Erick All or Schoonmaker up the seam, you can immediately create panic and confusion for the aforementioned young LBs and help you do what you really want to do. Which is pound the ball on the ground to the running backs (not the QB) about 40x or so.
Absolutely not, this is antithetical to my prescription.
Don't pin your hopes in this game on Cade McNamara and these wideouts beating the Buckeye DBs.
Get as many blockers on the field as you need and make it about their 2nd year linebackers fitting 80's and 90's style run game against multiple tight ends and then tackling Haskins and Corum.
Their offense is terrifying so I get that. I will say though...
1) I'm not sure Stroud is an NFL QB just yet. If you attack him mentally, I wouldn't assume he'll hold up. Not many teams have been able to pressure him while only bringing four like Michigan (probably) can and a few teams have been able to confuse him and got good results.
2) I don't believe for one second that their defense is magically cured and all these young DBs and LBs are as good as they looked against Sparty. The unit I saw unable to stop the same plays over and over against Oregon is still in there somewhere.
The other receivers are good but they aren't running the ball terribly well. They'd been an option team in years past and are struggling to adjust to life without a plus 1 advantage in the box.
Reading these and thinking more, I think it has to be Ross making this work.
If the safety is going to follow the tight end outside in case he runs a route than the LB has to be mirroring the RB for similar reasons. He can’t just play downhill into an A, he has to stack and track the back’s trajectory. He should be able to get away with 2-gapping from the fact all the OL are covered.
The fold is designed to complicate this but still, Ross is downhill into a gap Walker is not committed to. You can’t play that way when you’re the only second line of defense.
Michigan is never going to be good at tempo under Harbaugh. The idea that someone would ever want to hurry football rather than get it right has never entered the man’s thoughts, nor will it be countenanced.
LOL
Thinking ahead to next year, do we think Welschof could play outside in Hutch’s spot or is his destiny to figure out the double team life as a 3-technique?
Finally, what is the right way for Michigan to fit the fold/arc-read play from that defense? I thought about it for a while when I was drawing it up in my own column.
The OLBs always contain, that’s how the 2-4-5 and certainly the 5-2 work. The safety also has to mind the TE, if that’s a route you can’t just let him run outside.
Some has to adjust when the gap moves and I’m not sure who it’s supposed to be.
I think Michigan State had the superior strategy, yes. Out-coached is fine, with the obvious caveat about that insane fumble call that could have erased their plan.
I don't know how all the recruiting rankings match up but what I watch on the field from Michigan's passing game is a solid, not great attack.
Michigan State loaded the box to stop the run and make Cade McNamara beat them.
They left the stadium with the trophy, so their approach worked. I don't care what the "overwhelming majority" thinks, I'm telling you what I think. What I think is that Michigan State's strategy was right.
Evidence is how poor and abrupt the next drive was. Or the (2-7) on 3rd downs late in the game stat I mentioned. Sparty squeezed what they were doing and he and his receivers couldn't convert.
Making an accurate pass to a covered receiver that is intercepted because you made the wrong read is not great. I don't know what you're looking for here.
They weren't going to complete the pass. McNamara was rattled by the 3rd and 4th down failures. Play before the INT he was also struggling. Was struggling all down the stretch, that's what I was trying to say.
When the game was put on his shoulders and Sparty was bracketing the inside receivers he wasn't going to convert, essentially. Wasn't going to happen.
The main prescription was poach, not cover 3. Also, the nickel faces a 2-way go, generally you don’t want him to have no help in either direction. That’s a rough day at the office.
If you play both safeties deep and have Hill play man on the slot then you have no help against the run.
I thought that way earlier in the season but have changed my mind because I've seen how they can manufacture angles and matchups in the run game without needing the super-charge of a keeper dimension or play-action.
They're actually following the same formula as the 2020 Notre Dame playoff team. Steady quarterback, veteran offensive line and multiple tight ends who can execute a dozen run schemes and bring a different, elaborate gameplan every week, and then even the strong field side defense with Hutch and Hill instead of Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah.
I haven't paid careful attention to the efficacy of Erick All's goal line blocking as a fullback but you would think they could find a bludgeon on the roster who could reliably push the point of attack.
A million different versions of power and power-option from unbalanced formations. Took Michigan a while to sort it all out and they kept mixing up the play-calls so they couldn't precisely nail it down until late in the game.
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Appreciate that!
It's a good idea to throw early, on play-action or just in general, to keep the defense off balance and get a feel for the game before you start to run the ball.
I'm not saying they should line up and call runs the first 20 plays of the game, but wouldn't be shocked or appalled if they did something like they've done in earlier games this season where they throw some early, establish some rhythm, but then end up running the ball 40 times.
I didn't want to spend the whole column on the "you need a pro-style passing attack to win a title" point but the gist is this.
Playoff teams have amazing DL and it's hard to beat great DL and disciplined run defenses in the playoffs. You just become inefficient when your offense is predicated around handing the ball to a predetermined guy at a fixed point in the backfield.
The passing game is more multiple and harder to defend IF done at a high level. Executing it at a pro-caliber is very difficult, that's why mostly only champions can do it. It's the hardest thing to get right in football but when you get it right, it's the hardest thing to stop.
A team with that dimension has a better path to playing efficient offense, wearing down an opponent, and landing shots in the fourth quarter.
Michigan does not have that dimension. But neither does Georgia.
Who told you how and why Michigan could beat Ohio State?
It'd be hilarious if he came for Cade at the half, erased a big deficit, and then beat Georgia in overtime.
Maybe not, I’m a big fan of the freshman safety. That kid is awesome.
If they can get to 44 carries vs Georgia that’s a great sign. Means they were able to hold onto the ball and stay in the game. Would definitely take that.
I dunno about Georgia = Wisconsin. May be close in quality but I think this is a little different animal. These DL are like plus sized Rutgers guys.
Not before hand, I don’t think.
I accidentally deleted a response here with a left handed thumb but Carpetbagger was explaining that there are lots of Dutch in Iowa and West Virginia and you can identify them by their “Van-“ last names.
Lots of Germans in Iowa as well.
If you can't pressure Stroud with Hutch and Ojabo, both of whom are probably drafted after this season, you might as well just stay in the locker room and not come out for this one.
I'd say the more likely scenario is they run a few RPOs, especially early. They've been mixing those in more in recent weeks, as I would have noted last week had I not accidentally deleted my column before finishing.
If/when Michigan comes out in 12/13 personnel, everyone will know what's coming. So if you then slip Erick All or Schoonmaker up the seam, you can immediately create panic and confusion for the aforementioned young LBs and help you do what you really want to do. Which is pound the ball on the ground to the running backs (not the QB) about 40x or so.
Absolutely not, this is antithetical to my prescription.
Don't pin your hopes in this game on Cade McNamara and these wideouts beating the Buckeye DBs.
Get as many blockers on the field as you need and make it about their 2nd year linebackers fitting 80's and 90's style run game against multiple tight ends and then tackling Haskins and Corum.
I wasn't saying they won in Columbus I was saying there were problems in Columbus that year which lead to Ohio State not being terribly good.
That's sorta how Bo did it in 1969.
Their offense is terrifying so I get that. I will say though...
1) I'm not sure Stroud is an NFL QB just yet. If you attack him mentally, I wouldn't assume he'll hold up. Not many teams have been able to pressure him while only bringing four like Michigan (probably) can and a few teams have been able to confuse him and got good results.
2) I don't believe for one second that their defense is magically cured and all these young DBs and LBs are as good as they looked against Sparty. The unit I saw unable to stop the same plays over and over against Oregon is still in there somewhere.
I don't love this idea as much, and I thought about it.
I think it's too easy to let them run with Henderson on a light box. Maybe goad them into it and then drop a safety late.
Overall my point is more, "don't try to cover everything, instead confuse and harry Stroud."
The other receivers are good but they aren't running the ball terribly well. They'd been an option team in years past and are struggling to adjust to life without a plus 1 advantage in the box.
Reading these and thinking more, I think it has to be Ross making this work.
If the safety is going to follow the tight end outside in case he runs a route than the LB has to be mirroring the RB for similar reasons. He can’t just play downhill into an A, he has to stack and track the back’s trajectory. He should be able to get away with 2-gapping from the fact all the OL are covered.
The fold is designed to complicate this but still, Ross is downhill into a gap Walker is not committed to. You can’t play that way when you’re the only second line of defense.
LOL
Thinking ahead to next year, do we think Welschof could play outside in Hutch’s spot or is his destiny to figure out the double team life as a 3-technique?
Finally, what is the right way for Michigan to fit the fold/arc-read play from that defense? I thought about it for a while when I was drawing it up in my own column.
The OLBs always contain, that’s how the 2-4-5 and certainly the 5-2 work. The safety also has to mind the TE, if that’s a route you can’t just let him run outside.
Some has to adjust when the gap moves and I’m not sure who it’s supposed to be.
I did.
I’m not really a Michigan fan, more of a local observer.
Obviously you can feel free to disagree on the likelihood of McNamara converting a TD drive there. I’m not afraid to hold a hill though.
State dared McNamara to beat them. In those moments they were daring him to beat them throwing to the outside receivers. Poor prognosis for Michigan.
I think Michigan State had the superior strategy, yes. Out-coached is fine, with the obvious caveat about that insane fumble call that could have erased their plan.
I don't know how all the recruiting rankings match up but what I watch on the field from Michigan's passing game is a solid, not great attack.
Michigan State loaded the box to stop the run and make Cade McNamara beat them.
They left the stadium with the trophy, so their approach worked. I don't care what the "overwhelming majority" thinks, I'm telling you what I think. What I think is that Michigan State's strategy was right.
Michigan couldn't take Kenneth Walker out of the game, so not too easy.
I went to UT, just calling this game like I see it.
Evidence is how poor and abrupt the next drive was. Or the (2-7) on 3rd downs late in the game stat I mentioned. Sparty squeezed what they were doing and he and his receivers couldn't convert.
Who said anything about O'Korn or Bellomy?
Making an accurate pass to a covered receiver that is intercepted because you made the wrong read is not great. I don't know what you're looking for here.
Why isn’t it gross to pin it on the defense? Not following the logic here.
That call was all kinds of shady.
Michigan State made the plays to win because their best players were the focal point of their breakthrough plays.
Wolverines couldn’t set the table for their best players. No small wonder their complementary players couldn’t carry the day.
Can’t throw that ball, the corner is sinking. He’s the read.
Loading the box with good players.
They weren't going to complete the pass. McNamara was rattled by the 3rd and 4th down failures. Play before the INT he was also struggling. Was struggling all down the stretch, that's what I was trying to say.
When the game was put on his shoulders and Sparty was bracketing the inside receivers he wasn't going to convert, essentially. Wasn't going to happen.
They weren't going to score. When 3rd-and-3 and 4th-and-3 came up empty they were cooked.
I believe they play left and right, so it alternates.
If you do that, MSU will run the ball, believe me. Remember, their RB has 1k yards already.
The main prescription was poach, not cover 3. Also, the nickel faces a 2-way go, generally you don’t want him to have no help in either direction. That’s a rough day at the office.
If you play both safeties deep and have Hill play man on the slot then you have no help against the run.
I thought about mentioning that possibility. You do wonder.
To my eyes the issue for Harbaugh at Michigan has been less about the OC and more about the QB. Has yet to have a great one.
I thought that way earlier in the season but have changed my mind because I've seen how they can manufacture angles and matchups in the run game without needing the super-charge of a keeper dimension or play-action.
They're actually following the same formula as the 2020 Notre Dame playoff team. Steady quarterback, veteran offensive line and multiple tight ends who can execute a dozen run schemes and bring a different, elaborate gameplan every week, and then even the strong field side defense with Hutch and Hill instead of Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah.
I haven't paid careful attention to the efficacy of Erick All's goal line blocking as a fullback but you would think they could find a bludgeon on the roster who could reliably push the point of attack.
Maybe a DL or LB.
OSU does not play defense as well as Nebraska.
I dunno who does what, I recognize a lot of the design from other Harbaugh teams. Play-calling is great and I think that’s Gattis.
Auto-didact.
Does this hypothetical team have as good a defense as Nebraska though?
A million different versions of power and power-option from unbalanced formations. Took Michigan a while to sort it all out and they kept mixing up the play-calls so they couldn't precisely nail it down until late in the game.
Oh yeah, wider hash marks have a massive impact on the game.
Cleaning up. They’re not asking a ton from the LBs in my perspective.
Uh…