An Honest Assessment of Mel Tucker
Now that we’re all done laughing about the Luke Fickell saga, I thought it might be a good time to have a discussion about the new head ball coach in East Lansing.
My general take on head coaching hires is there are no sure things. So much of success and failure at this level comes down to circumstance and pure luck. I thought that Taggart was a slam dunk at FSU and I thought Herm Edwards was sure to implode at ASU. I’ve been wrong before and I’ll be wrong again but I think you can look at certain indicators and try to determine if a hire seems more or less likely to fail.
That said, let’s analyze Coach Tucker’s career thus far:
97-04 Assistant coach at OSU/MSU/LSU: being on a whole bunch of Saban and Tressel staffs to start your career is definitely a positive. Saban eventually thought enough if him to bring him back on board so definitely a promising start to a young career.
05-14 Various failed NFL Coordinator roles: I’m not trying to be snarky at all I just don’t want to list out every stop. He was on the Browns, the Jags, and the Bears so certainly not the best places to have success but I do think it’s a definite negative that he spent a decade in the NFL with basically no success.
15 Alabama DB coach: falling back into a college assistant role from the nfl is not great and unless I’m fucking something up he doesn’t show up on the 247 top recruiters list for this year. Still, says something that Saban was willing to re-hire him.
16-18 Georgia DC: architect of several elite UGA defenses, recruiter rankings 18-17-14 for all three years respectively. Undoubtedly a positive. Georgia’s defenses have been great in the Smart era and even if the talent is at a high level it’s a whole other thing to organize it into a cohesive unit. Also showing recruiting chops especially as a DC is a positive. One Caveat: he was never better than the third best recruiter on UGA’s staff, and I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that MSU will not be giving out bags on Georgia’s level any time soon. I think there’s a lot of coaches that could be a top 25 recruiter at UGA but you have to give him credit for doing it consistently.
19 Colorado HC: 5-7, 35th overall class, 7th in pac 12, previous year was 44th and 9th respectively. The year before he got there, they went 5-7 also, so no uptick in results and a slight uptick in recruiting. This is one year but I’m just not sold on it. He didn’t blow it away with recruiting or on the field. Honestly I don’t see how this is anything other than “meh”. Not a huge positive or negative.
other factors: MSU is paying him big boy money and (I think most importantly) giving him huge money to hire assistants which could finally get MSU a non-embarrassing staff.
Overall: this is a guy with a long track record of not much until he got to UGA where he proved to be a good recruiter and great coordinator. He had one year as a HC which was inconclusive. I don’t see how you argue that MSU didn’t WAY overpay. However, that could end up working out since he’s staring down at least one and maybe two TOUGH seasons and it will make them more likely to stick with him and give him the time he needs. Even if he’s better than his record looks I think he’s in a really tough roster position and looking up at three teams in his own division for the foreseeable future. It’s going to be at least year three before they’re ready to compete so the key to success here is going to be recruiting through two down years and hopefully squeezing out bowl eligibility in at least one of them.
February 13th, 2020 at 1:02 PM ^
Having said all that, we have no idea how he will do at State.
February 13th, 2020 at 1:27 PM ^
It's not like it was when Dantonio was there with both Michigan and Penn State having troubles. Nowadays, the Big Ten is loaded; I can't think of a worse time for someone to start coaching in this conference and with a poor set of players to boot
February 13th, 2020 at 2:06 PM ^
But we know what he's doing on his way out of Boulder
https://www.instagram.com/p/B8hDSH1Bz9G/?igshid=1ath931jxhlus
February 13th, 2020 at 3:05 PM ^
worth the click. Very funny.
February 13th, 2020 at 4:47 PM ^
No. Videos, even ones of this type, depicting adults slapping children are not funny. The whole thing is in incredibly bad taste at least.
February 13th, 2020 at 6:08 PM ^
Lighten up, Francis
February 13th, 2020 at 5:21 PM ^
And that's why you don't pay him 5+ million a year. Jesus Christ people.
February 13th, 2020 at 6:35 PM ^
Makes you wonder if Fickell really turned down that much money.
February 13th, 2020 at 8:12 PM ^
Fickell turning down MSU for that much money is similar to Mgrowold turning down a full ride scholarship to MSU to pay his way at Michigan. Maybe he lost some money in the present, but by doing so he gave himself limitless possibilities in the future. He could either take a big paycheck now and more than likely flame out his career at MSU, or wait a year and potentially get some really nice power 5 offers.
February 13th, 2020 at 1:03 PM ^
High risk/high reward. Fickell certainly had a higher floor, but Tucker may have a higher ceiling. The fact Saban hired him three separate times is a compliment (though not all Saban hires work out).
Not proven HC, but a good recruiter. The assistant money seems huge - curious who his staff is. He has the potential to build a good one.
Also, MSU has sunk to the degree the fan base will likely be patient. Lots of relief just for new blood.
February 13th, 2020 at 1:05 PM ^
Hasn't Saban also hired Bobby Williams several times? Like most coaches, Saban has his guys he's loyal too. And some may be great assistants, but not be HC material.
February 13th, 2020 at 1:21 PM ^
Williams was already the RB coach when Saban was HC at MSU. Saban hired him to his staffs at LSU, Miami Dolphins and Alabama.
February 14th, 2020 at 10:57 AM ^
I've actually met Bobby Williams. Super nice guy, loved, by players, excellent recruiter and a decent assistant and administrator. MSU elevating him to head coach was a joke, but Saban kept him around for good reason.
February 13th, 2020 at 3:15 PM ^
Live in Colorado and have some connections at CU. They really liked the guy and what he was bringing to the school especially his approach to doing things the right way. I’m guessing MSU hopes he will clean things up there.
i thought he didn’t do a great job with his assistant coaches leaving him with a weak staff. CU improves in some areas but I saw regressions in others. I really think the jury is still out on him as an HC and think MSU was pretty desperate in this hire with the money shelled out to him. The way he left was pretty crappy though and makes me question his integrity
February 13th, 2020 at 5:25 PM ^
He had a 5-Star DE Transfer in the works from Bama, Antonio Alfano. I've been watching for that as not sure how far along it was and whether he can get him to swing to MSU instead.
February 13th, 2020 at 1:04 PM ^
Had he been hired last year coming out of Georgia, this would have been thought of a much bigger higher, IMHO. His one year as HC was very inconclusive, but it did show that his impact would not be felt immediately.
February 13th, 2020 at 1:25 PM ^
A year ago he got a HC job for half the pay he's getting now. MSU could have surely gotten him then for the same amount. That one year at CU couldn't have done much to change his value, so it's obvious what MSU's desperation cost them. Not just the $$, but the lost opportunity of hiring someone they wanted more.
Here's more from Pat Forde.
https://www.si.com/college/2020/02/12/michigan-state-mel-tucker-salary-ncaa
February 13th, 2020 at 10:26 PM ^
At a program like Georgia, where the head coach is the real defensive coordinator, I'm not sure how much the DC title means.
February 13th, 2020 at 1:04 PM ^
He's just a big unknown. Since it's MSU I fully expect it to work out great for them because of course it would. But basically his whole college career has been a defensive assistant under already established great defensive coaches. And in the NFL, I think his career started pretty well, was a big up and comer and then it fell off. He got fired from the last couple of NFL jobs due to poor results. The last several years of his career has been a downturn from the early parts.
Not sure how much to take away from that. At Colorado the defense got worse when he took over and SP+ change from the year before I think was actually slightly negative which is not good (they've shows that almost all improvement great coaches usually get are in the first 2 years of taking over a job I believe).
February 13th, 2020 at 1:10 PM ^
Anybody have a sense as to what his defensive/offensive philosophy is based on his year at Colorado?
February 13th, 2020 at 1:23 PM ^
Lot of rumblings about 3-4 on D over at RCMB (including a paywalled post from Allen Trieu), but that is all I have seen.
FYI - Looks like Morrow used MSU to get a raise at UK (like he did with M) and is staying put.
February 13th, 2020 at 1:57 PM ^
He hasn’t decided yet.
February 13th, 2020 at 2:12 PM ^
I didn't realize you were his agent.
February 13th, 2020 at 9:45 PM ^
Guy must love bourbon
February 13th, 2020 at 1:04 PM ^
He was the 2nd beast recruiter at UGA in 16. My mistake.
February 13th, 2020 at 4:16 PM ^
Uga will always be 1st beast there.
February 13th, 2020 at 1:05 PM ^
His main calling cards are that he did well at Bama under Saban and at Georgia under Smart. He's a defensive coach and so it's almost impossible to separate his influence from Saban's and Smart's.
Moreover, I would expect most coaches to be able to win given Bama and Georgia's talent advantages. How many mediocre coaches have gone through Saban's program only to flame out - McElwain, Nussmeier, and Sark being examples.
MSU fans are deluding themselves into thinking that he's the savior of their program. Many of their arguments are predicated on justifying the exorbitant price MSU is paying him and that he was one of their top choices all along. MSU has to pay him that much because no coach with a winning record would touch their toxic program.
February 13th, 2020 at 1:05 PM ^
Gonna say the Tucker Track record doesn't do much to convince me that the trajectory of that program is on the verge of changing for the positive. Throw in culture challenges, and I think the stench will still be emanating from EL
February 13th, 2020 at 1:05 PM ^
I don’t know how he will do, I’m sure he will recruit above States standard, dk if he can coach them up though. I found it interesting he ripped the kids and the ncaa transfer portal last year than posts he’s staying at CU, 3 days later he’s having a press conference at MSU. I think if he has any success at MSU he will jumped to the next big thing.
February 13th, 2020 at 7:31 PM ^
O, he's definitely a "get off my lawn" type guy. That transfer comment and then follow up actions were peak bullshit.
Something I hope doesn't change is Harbaugh seemed to have a genuine distaste for Dantonio. He came in and made some nice comments about MSU being the top dog in the state when he got hired, but he changed his tune real quick once he got an up close look at Dantonio and MSU. Went from cordial to stepping on their throat at the end of this last season. Also slamming Mason into their defeated DL in 2018 was for a purpose.
Stay pissed and bury them.
February 13th, 2020 at 1:09 PM ^
My assessment is that he’s been a good coach when he’s had overwhelming talent advantages and he’s been below average when his talent has been middling. That tells me he’s not a killer Xs and Os, football IQ guy.
Record wise, there’s one data point, so nothing you can project with really. I think the success of this hire turns on the talent he can get to EL and the quality of assistants he can hire. The diagnosis on that looks....bad? They’re going to take beatings this fall, and it’s really late to start recruiting kids in 2021. Maybe he can swing some kids he was recruiting at Colorado, and his assistants can swing some previous relationships they had, but 2021 will be a mishmash class for them. As for assistants, we will see. He’s been given a large pool of money, but the fact that they’re willing to offer Vince Marrow $1 Million tells me they’re going to spend it poorly (shocker!). Marrow has been excellent at recruiting kids that Ohio State and Notre Dame and Michigan don’t want. That’s great at Kentucky because previously many of those kids went to Michigan State. That’s not great for MSU in the sense of how far they are behind OSU and Michigan and PSU right now. Marrow is also not a good position coach. So you’re going to pay a bad TE coach $1 Million to maybe get you back into Top 30 recruiting classes. Maybe.
So I agree with your assessment - probably year 3 before he can be fairly judged on his own merits, and year one and two could be rough. Anything about .500 is success for him at first, I think.
February 13th, 2020 at 1:17 PM ^
I read up a bit on Mel Tucker's offense on a few CU blogs, assuming he brings his OC along (the guy coached at CMU in the past fwiw), they have a TE in their base formation, either lined up outside tackle or in the backfield, and they go twin TE occasionally as well, so I'm not sure you can afford to have a figurehead TE coach either.
February 13th, 2020 at 5:43 PM ^
Well, they might do it regardless
February 13th, 2020 at 6:41 PM ^
He should just give raises to the assistants that are still at State. They need more hush money.
February 13th, 2020 at 1:10 PM ^
Tucker cratered the Colorado defense from 58 to 105 in one year (sp+). For a defensive coach that’s a big red flag. And recruiting at UGA means nothing. Like you said, every year there were other UGA coaches ranked as better recruiters than him. He could succeed. But I would be pretty shocked.
February 13th, 2020 at 1:15 PM ^
Just make sure to kick them while they are down and win big against them this Fall. Do not let them have their Jim Tressel game where an early win gives them more legitimacy than they should have.
February 13th, 2020 at 1:18 PM ^
From a Michigan perspective, Mel Tucker is kind of a whatever coach. I don’t think it moves the needle a ton but they did pull a rabbit out of the hat after that hilarious coaching search debacle.
The thing we should focus on more is that assistant pool. With that they can actually get some quality guys and one of Morks biggest problems was hanging out to terrible assistants. After he lost Narduzzi he started downhill. You just need A+ assistants to compete these days. We can’t let MSU out spend us.
Also not so sure on the thought that no way MSU starts bagging. They just dropped a ton of cash and are trying to bring in coaches with ties to the SEC. I wouldn’t put it past them to go all in and keep dropping cash to drag themselves back to relevance. They had a taste of success under Dantonio and are willing to chase that high at all costs. Hence the massive overspending on Tucker.
February 13th, 2020 at 3:16 PM ^
Any quality assistant is still going to be looking at an end game. Are you coming to MSU to work for an unknown commodity with a ton of issues to deal with? The Blackwell issue doesn't go away want Dantini leaving. MSU as a whole is the bad guy most likely. I'm sure recruits and high school coaches are going to look for results before sending kids there. They also can't take risks on recruits with baggage like they had done in the past.
I look at the stack of assistant cash as being used to overpay assistants to come just as they did with the head coach.
February 13th, 2020 at 3:25 PM ^
They absolutely will over pay for assistants. Most likely unproven ones. But they can still get some huge upgrades over Tressell, Warner, Salem, and Bollman. That’s the interesting part to me. They have 10 shots at hiring a great up and coming coach. And enough money to entice one.
February 13th, 2020 at 1:18 PM ^
I think that’s the first time I double posted. Oops
February 13th, 2020 at 1:18 PM ^
The one thing I know for certain is that Mel Tucker coaches football.
February 13th, 2020 at 1:23 PM ^
I know some guys do terrible in the NFL and then end up flourishing in college. That said when he was DC of the Bears the defense was terrible, like historically bad. Ranked 31 out of 32 teams both years he was there. As far as Staee, who knows? Things seem to work out way better for Michigan’s rivals so he will probably be successful. Very important for Michigan to beat Staee this year and not give him anything to hang his hat on.
February 13th, 2020 at 1:40 PM ^
Yeah. With the Bears, who consistently have elite defenses, he was the only guy that managed to muster up historically bad defenses. Of course there's other factors, but for those two years that I followed him, he was unbearable.
February 13th, 2020 at 4:48 PM ^
Tucker's NFL defenses (as DC) ranked by yards per play in order of year, 2008-2014.
25,27,32,8,21,32,29.
Tuckers defenses ranked by SP+ at UGA (and year before and after for context.
Before ranked 2, during 14,12,8, after 1.
Tucker's defense at Colorado
before 58 and his one season 105.
So there we have it. If anyone has a better stat for NFL than yards per play please share. I couldn't find a SP+ NFL equivalent.
This doesn't exactly inspire fear to me. Thoughts ?
February 13th, 2020 at 1:28 PM ^
At worst (for MSU), it seems like Mel is a competent coach and recruiter. We've seen some of those fail in EL due to the challenges they face as a program, and I'm not confident Mel has what it takes to be anything other than slightly annoying over the years, occasionally beating us in recruiting and pulling off a fluky victory or two.
At best (for MSU), Mel Tucker is the DC mind we saw at Georgia and he can get MSU's recruiting to a respectable level and perhaps approach some of Dantanio's success. But Dantonio wasn't going to consistently beat Harbaugh in his best days, and neither will Mel.
This is a "meh" hire IMO, but we'll have a better idea of the threat after he hires his staff. 2020 is unlikely to be pretty, and could very well be a four-win season for Sparty and Tucker.
February 13th, 2020 at 1:30 PM ^
If the talk about the BOT pushing a diverse higher were true, then him getting let go will take an act of God. He'd have to tank the program harder than Dantonio did to make the board even begin to think about a change. My guess is if he sustains seasons averaging 7 wins, he's not going anywhere. He gets a couple 5 wins in a row and the fanbase and money may force a change.
February 13th, 2020 at 1:34 PM ^
I didn't know anything about Mel Tucker until this coaching search, but I'm relatively happy with the hire. He's unproven as a HC, but seems to be a decent DC and recruiter, which was better than we were looking at post-Fickell.
It's clear the team needed an injection of energy, and Mel brings that. Fickell would have provided that too with a better HC record (though actually less top25 wins in 3 seasons than Tucker had in 1).
As for the cost, we aren't paying $12m a year for Mel Tucker and co, we are paying $12m for literally ANYONE to take this job in February. That's on Dantonio's timing killing us.
I'm in the "Dantonio wrecked this team mentally the last 4 years, and any coach could improve that immediately" camp, so I'm hoping even if Tucker isn't a great head coach he can improve the team. Our assistant coaches might have been some of the worst in the B1G, hopefully we can get an upgrade on them too. His OC at Colorado had a La Tech background.
February 13th, 2020 at 2:14 PM ^
Yeah, for a guy 100% of MSU fans didn’t know who he was as of the day before Dantonio retired, they seem to be tooting their horns a little much. Not you, as you even mentioned you didn’t know who he was, but there is a shiny coating being put on this guy that I can’t figure out.
February 13th, 2020 at 2:16 PM ^
I'm in the "Dantonio wrecked this team mentally the last 4 years, and any coach could improve that immediately" camp
I couldn't agree with you more. Mike was doing an absolutely shitty job the last couple years. Anyone decent would be a big upgrade.
I don't know if Mel will be good or not, but I do know Mike and his church group buddies were BAD, so this will be at least addition by subtraction