Citrus Bowl spread: Alabama 7 point favorite over Michigan
The line currently is at a consensus 7 point Alabama favorite with some juice on it, which means it's trending to be over 7 points earlier on this week.
https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/odds/line-history/1217683
Likely the line will naturally fluctuate these upcoming weeks based on news that comes out on what players will sit out the bowl game or not. ...As with almost any bowl game out there of course.
FYI, Sparty is 3.5 point favorites over Wake Forest. LSU is a 10 point favorite vs Oklahoma, and Clemson is a 2 point favorite still vs OSU.
December 8th, 2019 at 11:11 PM ^
Sounds about right, maybe a shade low. Michigan should be competitive but right now Alabama looks to be the better team.
December 8th, 2019 at 11:36 PM ^
I will be interested in betting the over right when that comes out. I think this could be sort of a shoot-out
December 8th, 2019 at 11:55 PM ^
That's the only way UM probably wins is if they get into one of those 41-38 type games where they can keep up. I do think Alabama isn't as good this year as in past seasons, but they're still very talented and deep. Tua being out is the one thing that could really affect them negatively, especially if Brown and the defense can mess with Jones early on.
December 9th, 2019 at 6:49 AM ^
They're certainly talented, but I think depth is their problem this year, particularly on defense. They've been hit hard with injuries on the defensive side of the ball and they're playing an lot of underclassmen. Michigan's offense, in it's current state, might have success moving the ball on them.
December 9th, 2019 at 10:26 AM ^
I agree about the defense; a big reason their rush defense has been just mortal is because I think they have a ton of first-year starters in their front 7. The offense does have a lot of depth at WR and RB. What'll be interesting is if Michigan can get going in the air, can Alabama with a backup QB keep up?
December 9th, 2019 at 12:17 PM ^
I attended Alabama's game at Mississippi State and they had a lot of injuries in addition to Tua, especially on the defensive front. When the two primary injury golf carts were in use at the same time, sports medicine staff had to deploy an equipment cart to retrieve a player. I agree that Michigan will the opportunity to move the ball. Unfortunately, Alabama's offensive was impressive in person. They controlled the line of scrimmage against a Mississippi State defensive line that had to replace exceptional players Jeffrey Simmons and Montez Sweat this year and has several first year starters.
December 9th, 2019 at 9:00 AM ^
I make power ratings and follow things very closely and overall I don't think Alabama is down this year. Now that doesn't mean they will come to play in this bowl game either.
Point is there is this perception that they have fallen back some which hasn't really been the case. Now they aren't obviously as good now without tua but they have played at almost same levels as past years this season.
They totally outplayed auburn in a fluke loss and the loss to LSU was more about lsu now being at elite levels this year than Bama slipping.
December 9th, 2019 at 10:44 AM ^
I agree. That's why I think if this spread stays close to only 7 points, this is a GREAT opportunity to make some money by betting on Alabama.
December 9th, 2019 at 10:49 AM ^
But they didn't totally outplay Auburn. If they had, it wouldn't have been a "fluke" loss, it would've been a nail biter of a win. Auburn made plays when they had to make plays. Are two pick 6's rare? Of course, but yet Auburn also still scored 34 other points, including the 2pt conversion at the end and then they stopped Alabama successfully and then ran out the clock. That's not being totally outplayed.
December 9th, 2019 at 1:56 PM ^
There are a number of things that make it fluky though ,where I agree with LV Bettor. First, is how Auburn got the FG with no time in the first half, that was a blown calls. Now blown calls happen all the time and I'm sure there'll be some in UM-Ala game, but you have to hope the 50/50 calls go UM's way. The second pick 6 defines flukiness, off the Ala RB into the Aub CB the other way. That's a 14 pt swing as Ala was at the three, or at least 10 pts swing. And Auburn did not stop Ala on the last drive, Ala had first and goal, and missed a 30-yard FG which is not that hard in college, though I agree anything above 35 is hard. If UM gets two pick 6s, an undeserved 3 pts, and a missed FG from Ala, UM should win, they're essentially being spotted 20 pts.
December 9th, 2019 at 6:28 AM ^
Wow, would have thought 12-14. At any rate I'd take the points, if down multiple scores, the many draftees will eas up not wanting to get injured. Over under on Bama players sitting out? I say 5?
December 9th, 2019 at 12:45 PM ^
A shade low?!
Are you sniffing the maize or the blue stuff? Just curious, I heard they come in many more flavors as well.
The line has nothing to do with win percentage... the Vegas line is designed to draw in all the M fans and give them false hope, so they'll bet and lose. We may not travel as well as some teams, but we certainly like to bet.
December 8th, 2019 at 11:13 PM ^
Would think there’d be heavy action on Alabama covering this number. Sorry to say this game could get ugly.
December 8th, 2019 at 11:53 PM ^
I couldn’t believe my eyes when my site posted the line at 7-110. I’m on it for a dime. I hate laying points but this seems extraordinarily low. I legitimately though it would open at around 10 or 11.
December 9th, 2019 at 12:36 PM ^
Imo, the line seems to imply the bookmakers think a lot of Bama players will sit out.
If this were a playoff game, I think the line is a lot closer to two TDs.
December 10th, 2019 at 6:30 PM ^
Bama has reported that the players have or will have call a players only meeting to see who will sit out and who won't.
December 9th, 2019 at 12:24 AM ^
Bet the house, the savings, and the kids college funds on Bama covering 7.
December 9th, 2019 at 6:07 AM ^
I have a policy of not betting against my team.
December 9th, 2019 at 7:45 AM ^
So you have either lost a piss load of money being a Michigan fan, or you don't bet very often.
December 8th, 2019 at 11:18 PM ^
I would comfortably bet a years paycheck on this
December 8th, 2019 at 11:28 PM ^
But you won’t.
December 8th, 2019 at 11:35 PM ^
I think nowadays Ron Jeremy probably makes about $4k a year so it's not that big of a deal.
December 9th, 2019 at 9:35 AM ^
Username checks out
December 9th, 2019 at 9:51 AM ^
I'll bet your paycheck on this. Whatever that amount is.
December 8th, 2019 at 11:20 PM ^
Easy money
December 8th, 2019 at 11:31 PM ^
Alabama’s scout team could be a 7 point favorite.
December 8th, 2019 at 11:38 PM ^
That Clemson line is probably the oddest though.
December 8th, 2019 at 11:44 PM ^
Yeah, I don't gamble, but I expect OSU to win that game. They certainly have the superior resume.
December 9th, 2019 at 12:43 AM ^
I like Lawrence against that secondary, and if Fields is still gimpy, Venables will rattle him.
December 9th, 2019 at 1:02 AM ^
OSU is a very public team.
To me, the book is daring Online State fans to bet on them.
December 9th, 2019 at 7:02 AM ^
I want Clemson to destroy the Buckeyes. 60zip has a nice ring to it. Please let this happen.
December 9th, 2019 at 9:35 AM ^
Why? I expected Clemson to be the slight favorite they are. Could go either way but I think its 60/40 Clemson.
December 8th, 2019 at 11:43 PM ^
I would take Alabama and give 7 points. I think they will destroy us like osu did.
December 8th, 2019 at 11:46 PM ^
Their offense even with a backup QB is better than OSU. Especially the receivers
December 9th, 2019 at 12:53 AM ^
Really? Bamas offense with the back up is better than OSU? I doubt that's accurate. Alabama has talent, for sure, but OSU has recruited at a very high level the past few years too. OSU has a very good oline, one of the best running backs in the country, excellent receivers, and a QB who was pretty much on the money all season.
December 9th, 2019 at 10:11 AM ^
Jeudy, ruggs, waddle, Smith. Then add najee and that o line to it. Yes, they're probably more of a matchup problem.
December 9th, 2019 at 9:31 AM ^
Come on. Stop being a negative attention whore. That is a stupid take. You look so you should feel dumb.
December 9th, 2019 at 9:45 AM ^
bluegary should not be using the word “us” on this site
December 9th, 2019 at 10:13 AM ^
Michigan going against those 300 pound linemen Alabama has won;t help. They have one guy that weighs in at 350.
December 8th, 2019 at 11:55 PM ^
I expect heavy action on Bama based on the Ohio State loss. But I believe it will be an overreaction based on our OSU voodoo. Imagine this spread was calculated before the OSU game--I believe it would be around 3 or 4.
December 9th, 2019 at 2:04 AM ^
Over reaction or the correct reaction?
December 9th, 2019 at 9:42 AM ^
We’re not great but we’re not as bad as the OSU game makes us look. Our stock should rightfully drop after that game, but probably not as much as the public deems it. That’s all.
Call me a foolish optimist hah.
December 8th, 2019 at 11:55 PM ^
Lay the points
December 8th, 2019 at 11:56 PM ^
It all depends on who sits. If a handful of Alabama guys that are projected as rounds 1 and 2 picks sit out and nobody from Michigan sits then I think Michigan would be the favorite. If everyone plays I think this line is a bit low.
December 9th, 2019 at 12:15 AM ^
Go Deamon Deacons???
December 9th, 2019 at 1:00 AM ^
I’m in Vegas and I saw LSU -12.5
December 9th, 2019 at 2:02 AM ^
I don't gamble but I'd take this all day long. Even if Bama came to AA, during the regular season, they win by 10.
Now make it neutral site, bowl game so some Michigan players out, and Alabama talent will outshine Michigan at almost every position. This will probably be ugly in some sense - 15+ points?
December 9th, 2019 at 9:02 AM ^
If this was regular season game Alabama would be around 10 point favorites in Ann Arbor.
The spread is lower due to how most feel they will be mentally for this meaningless game and the chance they could be greatly effected by guys sitting it out
December 9th, 2019 at 4:43 AM ^
Unfortunately we lose by way more. Sabans gonna run it up on us to prove this year was a fluke and has the horses to do so, even if he plays his second team. I think we’ll score points but our lack of recruiting D lineman will come to light as they break it off in our ass with their run game.
December 9th, 2019 at 7:44 AM ^
Saban is going to run it up on us because:
- He doesn't like Michigan
- Harbaugh has been a thorn in his side in the past