It’s Just Talent
Talent and mistakes, but mostly talent, and if you have less talent you can’t make mistakes.
People are frustrated after an 8th straight loss and looking for things to blame - I totally get it. The culprit, however, is not Jim, it’s not Don Brown, it’s not scheme, it’s not any of our coaches, or desire to win, or culture, etc. etc. It’s just a team with unreal talent playing a team with only very good talent (2nd in the composite compared to 11th, to be explicit). Depending on your view of things this will either deliver you deeper into BPONE or bring a level of acceptance (or both I guess), but Michigan has done everything it can do to compete and win this game outside of closing the talent gap.
As for whether we ever close the talent gap and become regular winners of The Game, well, that’s on the administration. Are we willing to make more admissions and academic standards exceptions, including ones that would allow taking JUCOs? Are we willing to support a comprehensive bagmen system to compete for the elite kids that want that kind of compensation? When the answers to those questions become yes, then we will have a chance to be a top 5 program. As long as the answers are no, we will be in the 7-12 range.
I love Jim as a coach. I think he’s a fantastic football coach, and I think he’s done literally everything he can do above the table to make us great. We have a great staff of coaches, we have great facilities and support staff, we recruit hard as hell and explore transfers aggressively, and we think outside the box to get ourselves advantages against programs who play money games. I think we need to stay put with this staff. It’s just talent - we need to be top 6 or 7 in the composite to compete with who we want to compete with, or we need to accept 10-2/9-3 every year, and one or two magical 11-1 seasons under Jim.
Michigan is faced with a simple decision: join the so called “cheaters” to regularly compete for championships or accept being in the second tier of top programs and having a hard ceiling. I think federal NLI legislation would be a great boon for our program, but until then, it is what it is.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:50 AM ^
When you have the DL issues they had yesterday, you have to scheme around it.
They did the opposite yesterday.
Michigan has the talent to hold OSU to fewer than 56 points.
They don't have the DC.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:31 AM ^
100% agree with the OP. It’s the same reason every other blue blood program That doesn’t fully pay its players is struggling to get into the top tier. Just take a look at the past CFB champions to see how limited the number of schools have been over the past 12 years
Only 6 schools over the past decade. It’s a rotating circle of pay for play programs.
2018ClemsonCFP
2017AlabamaCFP
2016ClemsonCFP
2015AlabamaCFP
2014Ohio StateCFP
2013Florida StateBCS
2012AlabamaBCS
2011AlabamaBCS
2010AuburnBCS
2009AlabamaBCS
2008FloridaBCS
2007Louisiana StateBCS
2006FloridaBCS
December 1st, 2019 at 11:44 AM ^
A handful of Southern schools, plus OSU.
CFB has become super top heavy and un-balanced. Almost no reason watch anymore.
Compare the list of national champions from the 80s and the 90s. Much more geographically and conference diverse list than the list since 2006. (Link: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/index.html). Even 2000-2005 had a geographically and conference diverse mix of champions.
More and/or more efficient cheating/bag men in recent years? Not sure. Could be. There were bag men back then too.
Penn State, Michigan, and ND are all in the same spot (73% win rate over last 5 years, 8th-10th nationally).
Yet the gap between 8th-10th up to 1st-3rd (Clemson, Bama, OSU) is now so large that Penn State, Michigan, and ND really have no shot at winning a national championship in the foreseeable future. Just not in the cards. Near zero probability.
No foreseeable way that any Pac-12 team could win. Oklahoma is the only team from the Big 12 the could maybe win in the foreseeable future. And even that seems unlikely.
So CFB will be... Clemson, Bama, OSU as champs for the foreseeable future, with LSU, Georgia, and/or maybe Oklahoma sneaking in with a chance every few years.
Does that make the rest of CFB the Washington Generals?
December 1st, 2019 at 10:37 AM ^
Yesterday's result hurt, and some big mistakes really cost us at key moments. Like last year, the game got out of hand once UM started getting desperate.
OSU's defense is just really good. They held Wisconsin to a total of 191 yards (7 points) and Penn State to 227 yards (17 points). UM's 396 yards and 29 points is basically what those two teams were able to do combined, even though OSU gave PSU fumbles deep in their own territory.
I don't know what to say about UM defense, however. We obviously need more beef on the defensive line, but the long passes were a killer.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:38 AM ^
All 4 stars on not created equal. It’s about getting those top 100 guys. I think we get 15 four stars and think that this means we’re close to Ohio State who got 17 four stars, but if you look closer they’ll have gotten 13 top 100 recruits and we got 2.
Until we start getting 10 Top 100 kids a class, there will be a large talent gap between us and OSU.
December 1st, 2019 at 12:11 PM ^
Yup.
And to add to that, looking at team rankings in recruiting is misguided as well. We end up around 10th in total "team points" but our average recruit ranking always seems to be around .89. OSU's is always somewhere around .94 - .95. That's an average recruit that is a top 100 player. Their entire roster is full of those guys year after year.
This aint John Cooper or Jim Tressel's Ohio State anymore. This is Bama North.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:57 AM ^
Not just a talent gap.
JH has the 8th best winning percent nationally since he arrived (73.4%). But the super elites (Clemson, Alabama, OSU, Oklahoma, in descending order of win percentage) are all above 85% win percentage.
These are some of the factors, in no particular order, that have prevented M from getting in the super-elite group, that have nothing to do with roster talent....
1. Wrong offensive philosophy. Until the IU and MSU games this year, JH had not really tried to have an offense based on chunk/explosive plays. An offense premised on long drives that depend on correct block execution over and over, and converting two to four third downs...that is not going to get Michigan to the top level, no matter the talent level on the roster. The IU and MSU games give me some hope that in 2020 JH will finally deploy an offense every week that is premised on explosive plays, creating bad mismatches for the D, and getting the ball to the most talented guys in space.
2. A bit too slow to make changes in the face of obvious problems. Just two examples. D.Brown finally this year made Michigan competent at being multiple on D. No reason that had to wait so long. JH hung on with Drevno and Pep too long. No reason it had to wait that long.
3. Poor clock management/play selection at the end of each half. Five years in and we still have this problem. Fix it. Has nothing to do with talent.
4. Just have not gotten that special QB that can get it done: Having a Heisman finalist level QB turns a program from 9-3 to 11-1/12-0 level. See LSU 2019. Patterson is a pretty good college QB. But he is not a Heisman finalist. In order for JH to make the jump from 8th best to super-elite, one of his QB recruits is going to have to develop into a Heisman finalist level guy. You could say that this is recruiting, but JH's QB recruiting has been very strong. Peters, McCaffrey, and Patterson (yes transfers are part of recruiting these days; see LSU, Oklahoma and OSU QBs) were all elite recruits. Sometimes it is just good/bad luck on how a high 4 or 5 star QB recruit develops.
5. Allowing the roster to get thin at certain spots: Example: No DT recruits some years? WTF. Not a talent level issue. This is a roster management issue.
6. Plenty of poor game plans in big games. This is sort of an outgrowth of issue 1 above. At any rate it is a failure to maximize whatever talent is on the roster, and not a talent level issue.
7. Recruiting head scratchers: Too many top in-state recruits not going to Michigan. Too few Ohio recruits. Too many assistants that are not plus recruiters. Etc. This is not a roster talent issue. This is instead a contributing cause to the roster talent gap.
Any one want to add others to the list?
So...there is a big roster talent gap between Michigan and OSU. But there are plenty of other issues that have prevented Michigan from beating OSU, getting to the playoff, etc. Most of them are things that Michigan has some/a lot of control in fixing.
The key to beating OSU is (1) stop self-sabotaging on the the above list of things, (2) have a one of the high 4 star QB recruits develop into a 'in the Heisman conversation' guy, (3) have OSU have some bad luck/come back to earth a little bit.
No. 3 will happen at some point because no program continues with a 91% win rate forever.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:11 AM ^
Ghost of Fritz, spot on! Agree with much of what you say. I’ll just add, when your coaching staff is undisciplined/unorganized/lack of attention to detail on several areas (what you mention above, both on game day, coaching staff, and recruiting/roster management), then what do you expect from players? You think it’s coincidence we see the dumb jump offsides on key 4th down, rough punters, late hits, dropped passes, fumbles, etc? I mean tell me another top 20 program that waste more timeouts and gets too cute more than Harbaugh? We haven’t ran Shea much all year, and both PSU and OSU in key goal line plays you’re running him? Big play to Bell against Wisconsin on 1st play and you have to call a timeout because you can’t get lined up? Kick a 58 yard FG with Moody at PSU when he can’t hit over 50? We have Ben Mason playing DT at beginning of year (goes with roster management). If roster is this thin, go get a D 1AA guy off a good team. Anyone is better than a guy who never played the position! Why does it take Dax so many games to see the field? Same with McGrone? Do coaches know who the best players are, of favor the upperclassmen? (Why we always debate the QB position). Why does our QB’s never get better under this staff?
I just named a few examples. I know all of you could name several more. Ghost of Fritz is right, Harbaugh leaves a lot to be desired with his decisions on several key elements to being head coach.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:54 AM ^
I agree with the things that you add to the list.
Just want to be clear though. JH has been pretty good at Michigan. He has gotten the 8th best result nationally since he arrived (both in total wins and win %).
But at the same time he has certain issues beyond the roster talent gap that have held Michigan back from getting into the super-elite level (including the things you highlight).
Until he fixes these things he wont be able to make a dent in the roster talent/recruiting gap.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:54 AM ^
It is the lack of recruiting certain positions for an entire year (like DTs recently) that baffles me.
I don’t care if you have to steal a couple 2 stars from Mac teams or Illinois, get at least one a year.
Period.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:09 AM ^
So. So wrong. The talent gap is not that big. PSU has similar talent as UM and they occasionally beat OSU and play them close when they don't.
MSU had worse talent and beat OSU under Meyer.
OSU beats us worse than they beat much less talented teams. Even if you want to assume a small talent gap, we should perform better than the other teams on the schedule who clearly have less talent. We don't. We do less with more.
It does not come down to just talent.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:56 AM ^
PSU's record against OSU is almost as bad as ours. And Fields coughed the ball up three times vs PSU this year, and if you watched the game, you know that it was never in doubt despite those three turnovers.
I sort of agree that our results seem not just bad, but also disproportionately bad relative to PSU and MSU. But this whole transitive analysis doesn't do much for me...OSU is in its own league right now and whether we play them closer than PSU or not, doesn't really make me feel better or worse. Losing is losing. There are no moral victories, in my view, and there really isn't this idea of a "moral defeat" either. I don't really care whether PSU lost by 11 or 111. Fuck OSU.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:15 AM ^
Hudson has jumped offside before on 4th down. How could he possibly do that again?
Coaches when I played would have had the team running gassers & laps after the first time.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:22 AM ^
The majority of elite recruits would most likely get through admissions at UofM, however, the underlying problem is many of those “student-athletes” don’t truly want to face a UofM curriculum.
”...ain’t come here to play SCHOOL, classes are POINTLESS” does not fly at Michigan.
And as Dr. M.T. pointed out, Fields, for example, takes his remedial classes online in the athletic’s center lounge...if he so chooses. That sounds like the University of Phoenix to me, with a big red “o” ink stamp.
Perhaps, Shea and company would fare better if all they did during their time in college was eat, sleep and drink football. Or perhaps, we’d get land more elite recruits (Malik McDowell, just another example) if they knew they wouldn’t have to attend class, or even apply themselves scholastically.
I really don’t believe it's “who can get in” as much as it is “who wants to attend a prestigious university, attend class, and most likely be challenged academically.”
There are easier places/ways to spend 3-5 years and these recruits know it. Da’Shawn Hand, with all that engineering hoopla, graduated with a degree (sincere props for that alone) in....wait.....wait for it.......
Sports Marketing
December 1st, 2019 at 11:30 AM ^
We have had top 10 recruiting classes more often than not under Harbaugh. How big is the gap actually between ours and OSU's talent? They get a few more 5 stars but we still get some and 10+ four stars every year
December 1st, 2019 at 11:39 AM ^
Whining about cheating is ridiculous. If you think Michigan doesn’t bend the rules for athletes then your as naive as your post. Harbaugh has had every opportunity to recruit just as much as OSU. He needs to retire Don Brown and hire a DC that can scheme, motivate and have his players execute against a good offense. Brown as a DC is like Babe Ruth. He either hits a home run against offenses that are average or he strikes out against any offense that is good. He is responsible for Michigan’s three losses this year with his bullshit schemes that worked in the ACC before Clemson got good.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:56 AM ^
These “cheaters” you refer to, does that include Penn State, Wisky, ND, Sharty, South Carolina, and Florida. Every single time OSU prison sexes Jim, we hear these laments about how it’s sad they cheat and we don’t. What about Army? Did Army cheat to take us to double OT in A2? Also, the academic argument is the most antiquated of all the dumb shit we hear after our annual skull humping vs OSU. We recruit a ton of the same dudes they do. Any player on that OSU team could have been admitted as a football player at UM. Same goes for Wisky and PSU. I heard that OSU has a player up for the academic Heisman. They are just better than us. They send more kids to the NFL, and their dudes produce at a high level in the NFL. Kids like that, coupled with competing for titles. We don’t offer those things. Plus, Jim is a strange bird. I’m not sure how he can connect with top recruits.
December 1st, 2019 at 12:18 PM ^
Other than OSU QBs who end up working at Home Depot
December 1st, 2019 at 12:45 PM ^
Yep.
1. OSU has a player who took money from an agent. For this he missed two games. Rutgers and Maryland. The facts behind this were NEVER mentioned yesterday. Just a lot of Heisman ballyhoo for him. So this is where we are in terms of cheating.
2. When you have to play a perfect game to win you aren't going to win a lot. Whether it's M against OSU or Rutgers against everyone else. This isn't about sloppy play or coaching, it's just inferior raw talent. OSU had derps yesteday, too. Fields wasn't particularly accurate with passes and missed a number of open throws. The law of averages almost always prevails.
3. Baylor goes from one win to one loss in a season. No one bats an eye.
The cheating and lying and disparity is all driven by money. The more money on the line the more of it there will be. Anyone who believes that paying college athletes will mitigate this in any way is, in my opinion, an idiot. You want a system where integrity and academic standards are relevant metrics? Reduce the money in the system. You want to watch professional athletes? Switch to Sunday.
December 1st, 2019 at 2:09 PM ^
Jim Harbaugh's teams at Michigan play Sloppy and Undisciplined football. That is on him and his staff. They are unprepared, disorganized and fail to prepare the kids to play difficult games.
December 1st, 2019 at 2:43 PM ^
They (osu) kill us at the QB and RB positions year in and year out, arguably the two most important positions in football.
When was the last time we had a better starting QB and RB?
December 2nd, 2019 at 5:20 PM ^
thought I might Park this excellent article summarizing Harbaugh’s run.
He’s simply the best coach we could hope for.