Unverified Voracity Says Furk
UFR is delayed. It's due to crippling bouts of ennui. I'm sure you understand. Anyway, let's have some fun!
The situation. A follow-up from the stat on the podcast about how Michigan has failed to cover the last six spreads by at least two touchdowns from Dimitri Nakassis:
On the bright side, when you click to the big version of an image on twitter and save it, twitter no longer gives you a ".jpg-large" file that has to be renamed before you can actually use it. So I got to skip that step while inserting the neat summary of a half-season stretch in which Michigan has vastly underperformed expectations.
Oh God I just remembered why this graph looked strangely familiar.
RIP, Prevail and Ride. Also us.
[After THE JUMP: surely it gets more cheerful!]
Well, there's that. Adam Rittenberg gets some useful anonymous coach quotes that attempt to explain what is happening to Michigan's offense. "Speed in space" is just a rumor as Michigan plays without Mike Sainristil and doesn't do any speed in space things:
"There's no tempo in the offense," a Big Ten assistant told me. "There's no hurry-up ... and there's no get-the-ball-out-quick on the perimeter."
Against Wisconsin, Michigan's wide receiver screens went to a tight end.
And Shea Patterson is almost never finding someone to throw to in rhythm:
A coach who studied Michigan told me, "The ball is supposed to come out on a plant-and-throw or one hitch. If the quarterback's on his third hitch and the ball ain't out, that's a problem. To blame the O-line is outrageous." A former Big Ten coordinator added of Patterson, "He's not a quick-trigger guy, he's just not. He's a run around and make plays guy. It's a problem."
The problem isn't so much that Patterson can run around and make plays, it's that way too many plays end up breaking down into that after the actual design fails to do anything, whether that's because Patterson isn't finding receivers or everyone is covered.
Toughness: a thing people talk about. I'm not sure how you measure it or how to judge how it affects football games, but it's a press conference staple when things are going badly, and this is no exception:
“Emphasis on physicality, emphasis on toughness and emphasis on hustle,” Harbaugh said. “We’ll make that part of the practice plan more and also playing the players that are dedicated and playing physically at all times. Get those players in the ballgame.”
Ben Mason is tough but Ben Mason is legislated out of this offense; Carlo Kemp might be tough but he's also Just A Guy at DT—if that. Michigan didn't set an edge on Taylor's long TD, and repeatedly flew out of the middle of the field on draw plays and traps. Is that a toughness issue? It seems like a coaching issue when Wisconsin inserts their fullback to the backside of the formation and runs opposite it, like they do all the time, and your linebacker/safety level continually falls for it.
This guy cracked the code. Sometimes signals are not subtle.
And guess what? They sent the blitz and played man free. All DC's are like this. If I'm a college coach, I'm literally going to put a guy on signal duty with binoculars and wait til the defense signals the play before I call my offensive play. pic.twitter.com/5MlrKY6JCJ
— Seth Galina (@SethGalina) January 2, 2018
It's a tough blitz though.
Good for the gander. The NCAA is really grooving their fastballs these days:
“This could potentially destroy everything we know and love about college sports. I am absolutely a huge opponent of it.”
— Dan Murphy (@DanMurphyESPN) September 25, 2019
-- The athletic director of a Big 12 institution two days ago when asked about college athletes accepting endorsement money. https://t.co/D9NeGulkFn
Restoring name and image rights to athletes won't reduce the overall pool of money available but may redirect it towards athletes as donors cut out the middleman. This is bad news for people running organizations of middle-men. Not bad enough to turn down a hard seltzer sponsorship, apparently.
Murphy's referencing TCU's AD, by the way. Prepare for word salad:
“I understand the free market concept and I understand the country we live in is exceptionally prideful and that’s part of our freedom,” Donati said. “But I also think there’s a tremendous amount of monetary value in place on these kid’s educations. That’s a tremendous investment we’re making investing into this amateur model.
“I just think it’d be a shame to throw it away so haphazardly from what I’ve heard. It has potential to be a wild, wild west situation, which is scary as an athletic director."
The Skinner bill has the potential to be the wild, wild west in the same way that legalizing marijuana does: legalizing and regulating a black market economy is the exact opposite of a lawless free-for-all.
They have come for Kansas. The NCAA dropped off a hefty notice of allegations on Kansas's doorstep:
Kansas has been charged with lack of institutional control, three Level I violations in men’s basketball and there is a head coach responsibility charge against coach Bill Self, according to multiple sources. There also are allegations against football, sources added, although those are Level II violations. The football allegations include charges of allowing an extra coach to work during practice under former head coach David Beaty.
The Level I violations are tied, in part, to the recruitments of Billy Preston and Silvio De Sousa. Court testimony and documents tied to the federal basketball corruption cases over the past two years included details of veteran adidas consultant T.J. Gassnola having “conspired to illicitly funnel approximately at least $90,000” to the mother of Preston. Gassnola also testified in court that he paid De Sousa’s guardian $2,500, although he denied arranging a $20,000 payment that had been discussed on wiretaps.
The charge against Self will potentially prove a compelling and high-profile application of the NCAA’s head coach responsibility bylaws. Evidence tied to the case included Gassnola and Self talking openly in text messages about Adidas helping Kansas recruit players. “I’m happy with Adidas,” Self wrote Gassnola. “Just got to get a couple real guys.”
Will this be enough to result in meaningful penalties? If not this, then nothing will. When Yahoo showed the NOA to a "veteran compliance officer" his reaction was thus:
“That’s everything that compliance is employed to prevent. That’s the trifecta, that’s unbelievable. That’s the reason why compliance exists, just thinking about it gives me anxiety.”
Anything short of a long-term nuking of Kansas, Arizona, and especially Louisville basketball is an invitation to keep it going.
This space is in favor of nuking these teams because that will convert those fanbases from organizations that support the status quo because it benefits them to fanbases who want to burn the whole enterprise down. This is naturally why programs do not suffer long-term nukes. The NCAA is bedfellows with the black market; the two work together. The guys funneling chump change to players aren't noble vigilantes, they're symbiotic bacteria that help smooth amateurism's ability to digest giant piles of money.
For its part, Kansas is set to engage in a fistfight:
“In its haste [two years after the FBI investigation was announced] and attempt to regain control, the enforcement staff has created a false narrative regarding me and our basketball program,” Self said in a statement. “The narrative is based on innuendo, [court proceedings] half-truths, [wiretaps] misimpressions [facts] and mischaracterizations [also facts]. In reality, we all know there is only one version of the truth [Kansas pays players and Self knows it]. The truth is based on verifiable facts, and I am confident the facts we will demonstrate in our case will expose the inaccuracies of the enforcement staff’s narrative.”
This might be good? Usually programs get the NOA, complain a little, take their solitary year of post-season ban and light scholarship restrictions, and move on. Here Kansas looks set to fight because not doing so may bring the NCAA's first real punishment in forever. It might happen! The Athletic's roundtable on the situation is pretty interesting:
O’Neil: The depth and scope is pretty massive. The NCAA clearly is cashing in all of its chips to take some very serious allegations — paying Billy Preston’s mother and Silvio De Sousa’s handler — and padding them with others equally damning, albeit less sensational. There is federal testimony, text messages and phone records, and all of it includes multiple infractions involving more than one player. Those are not easy things to get over.
Moore: The allegations that Self and his staff were aware of T.J. Gassnola’s recruiting attempts and allowed it without reporting. The NCAA is attempting to establish a pattern of negligence and show the athletic department also tried to hide violations it knew were occurring. …
Davis: The most important dynamic in play is that Kansas has already challenged these allegations. That means we are going to see the very first test of the NCAA’s new Independent Resolution Panel. This was put in place as part of the Complex Case Unit that came out of Condi Rice Commission’s recommendations, and it will effectively take the case out of the hands of the NCAA and its Committee of Infractions. First, an independent group of investigators will gather to ascertain all the facts. These are people who are professional investigators, prosecutors, etc. Then they will present those facts to the panel. If you look at the roster of panel members, you will not see a lot of familiar names and organizations — or any, really. Again, these are professional legal and compliance minds who are for the most part not technically part of the NCAA. To say all bets are off does not do justice to the uncertainty at hand.
Burn it all.
A divergence in efficiency. Off the bounce threes are increasing in number despite remaining inefficient options overall:
Off the bounce three-point shooting volume and efficiency trends in the NCAA and NBA: pic.twitter.com/kWA82Tcccf
— Jordan Sperber (@hoopvision68) September 21, 2019
Those NBA numbers are wild, man. In college off the bounce threes remain a meh option, though some guys (Derrick Walton) can make it work.
Etc.: More on state challenges to the NCAA. Emmert calls this an "existential threat." I do not think he knows what that word means.
September 25th, 2019 at 1:31 PM ^
It seems like a coaching issue when Wisconsin inserts their fullback to the backside of the formation and runs opposite it, like they do all the time, and your linebacker/safety level continually falls for it.
I get the sense this is a Hawkins issue, no? I recall a play where Hawkins first runs out of a giant gaping hole only to then have to run down the ball carrier. Which of the LBs had trouble with this?
September 25th, 2019 at 1:43 PM ^
edit: removed because I was being too negative. I ate a snickers bar. Life goes on.
September 25th, 2019 at 1:52 PM ^
Of course! It's so simple! Why hasn't the coaching staff thought of this!? I'll email them for you and make sure to give you credit. You've saved the season!
September 25th, 2019 at 2:04 PM ^
thanks bro... yep, I said it was easy and would pay immediate dividends, that's exactly what I said
September 25th, 2019 at 2:17 PM ^
Understood. Brown says he won’t play a player that isn’t ready however I find the absence of Freshman in any situation to be a bit too cautious.
September 25th, 2019 at 2:55 PM ^
changing the offense made our defense soft? cmonnnnnnn bro this is the dumbest, laziest narrative possible.
The team lost a boatload of draft picks, didn't replace them with equivalently talented guys and the young ones are learning. Simple as that. We're playing Ben Mason at DT and he's wildly small and inexperienced but he's not soft. Effort and "toughness" don't matter if you're physically completely overmatched like Carlo Kemp and Ben Mason are.
And the young guys you mention are technically overmatched. They are learning in practice every day and their learning curve will be steep. When they're playable, they'll play (probably even this week).
September 25th, 2019 at 10:48 PM ^
I do believe practicing against Don Brown on a daily basis has impacted Michigan’s QB’s ability to competently read zone defenses. Harbaugh admitted it after the opening game against Florida a few years ago and I don’t think it has ever fully been addressed.
September 26th, 2019 at 5:48 AM ^
Isn't there a practice squad for exactly this reason?
September 26th, 2019 at 11:24 AM ^
You would hope, but I remember Harbaugh making a comment after that season opening Florida game. Speight threw an interception high over the middle early in the game. After the game Harbaugh made a comment to the effect of: I knew we had not practiced against zone enough because a QB should know that you can never throw high on that type of throw against a zone. He basically said he knew the season was going to be a struggle because of it.
With how much pride Don Brown takes in his side of the ball, I have no doubt he and his coaches could care less about what they have to do to help prepare the offense. I would bet he successfully argues that every practice his guys need to be practicing the scheme he wants to run.
September 25th, 2019 at 3:14 PM ^
Don Brown's defense has pretty much been based around getting a quick push with the defensive line and then asserting overt pressure with blitzing and tight man coverage that forces the offense to make decisions before it is ready to. This keeps the opposing offense uncomfortable and questioning itself throughout the game and, ultimately, forces bad decisions because most college guys aren't operating at that quick of a clip, plus the defense is pretty much snuffing things out before they can begin. That pressure leads the defense beating the offense almost everywhere, mentally and physically. Before you know it, that offense is frustrated, worn down, and ready to go home.
Michigan simply doesn't have that push this season. Without that overt and constant pressure, the defense starts losing leverage and things can begin to open up for the offense, even just a little. Football is a game of inches and seconds. OSU was so effective against Michigan last season because Michigan both didn't get that push, the offense got the ball out FAST, and OSU had the speed and quickness to make Michigan pay doubly so.
Simply put -- gotta have a monster D-line and relentless linebackers and DB's. Michigan ain't got that D-line this season. I know it's a cliché that the game is won and lost in the trenches, but... well, that's what's happening. Michigan has made up for disadvantages in certain areas by asserting that pressure, and now they are having problems doing that, at least consistently. That is a problem for any defense, but especially the brand of defense Michigan likes to run under Don Brown.
September 25th, 2019 at 6:29 PM ^
But did Don Brown have better talent on D at Boston College that he does at Michigan this year?
September 26th, 2019 at 1:16 AM ^
On D-line he probably did, actually. Their nose tackle (https://247sports.com/Player/Connor-Wujciak-179/) at one point made an NFL roster, and is described as their best player in this article about the defense: https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2015/12/15/10115630/how-boston-college-eagles-built-a-top-5-defense
September 25th, 2019 at 3:25 PM ^
I think what made our defense "soft" is losing Gary, Winovich, Bush and Long to the NFL.
September 25th, 2019 at 3:54 PM ^
I'm not so sure we were capable of stopping crossing routes last season, which took place before the offensive philosophy change.
September 25th, 2019 at 2:12 PM ^
To me, the issue was choosing the 3-3-5 alignment versus a Wisconsin offense. Typically, the 3-3-5 is used against more up tempo spread option teams. Having that extra DT from the 4-3-4 fills a vital gap and helps free LBs to break to the ball or contain. In the 3-3-5, it is the requirement of a safety or worse a cornerback as the LBs get washed by 325lb lineman. A back like Jonathan Taylor is a beast that is a total mismatch, physically, for DBs.
September 25th, 2019 at 2:18 PM ^
I mean, who are they supposed to play? Chris Hinton? Mazi Smith? Imagine if those guys played against Wisconsin! Michigan might have been gashed for 300+ yards on the ground!
September 25th, 2019 at 4:50 PM ^
Wisconsin started a true Freshman DT that was ranked out of the top 1000 as a recruit, against our interior OL, how did that fair for them?
September 25th, 2019 at 2:38 PM ^
In 2010 Greg Robinson ran a 3-3-5 against Wisconsin and the badgers didn't even have to attempt a pass in the 2nd half.
Have we reverted back to Greg Robinson level defensive scheming?
September 25th, 2019 at 3:10 PM ^
I begged and prayed that we not repeat that debacle when that smug ass clown Bielma handed off 24 times in a row with no punting. I thought who could be so idiotic?
and then
September 25th, 2019 at 7:06 PM ^
Don Brown didn't suddenly start running a 3-3-5 because he thinks is some brilliant scheme. There's no doubt in my mind that Don Brown hates having to run a 3-3-5.
The scheme is being dictated by the personnel that Michigan has on defense, particularly with few viable bodies at DT. Hard to justify running a 4-3 if it means putting Ben Mason in at DT and leaving Josh Uche on the bench.
September 25th, 2019 at 7:55 PM ^
Right! They only have two top 150 true freshmen interior lineman! You cant play those guys unless they are the number 1 overall recruit like the guy wisconsin was starting!
September 25th, 2019 at 9:44 PM ^
Why hasn't he recruited more DT's then?
September 25th, 2019 at 10:03 PM ^
They can't make the five extra 320lb OG they have on bench, play DT? I mean, two could pan out. Why not try Filiaga, Onwenu, Spanellis etc.
September 25th, 2019 at 2:43 PM ^
Weird. Hawkins a WR turned S is struggling a bit.
September 25th, 2019 at 3:11 PM ^
Next he’ll be a 3-tec
September 25th, 2019 at 1:35 PM ^
edit: I removed my post. Spreading too much negativity. have fun gents. I'll see you all after we beat down Iowa.
the charts say it all
September 25th, 2019 at 1:45 PM ^
Nearly every college runs a spread offense. Alabama and Clemson runs spread offense and has two of the best defenses in the country. Let's just stop with this nonsense
EDIT: I saw you removed your post. It's not spreading negativity, it's because you're wrong and moved goalpost with your argument
September 25th, 2019 at 1:49 PM ^
yes, but they are also stacked with 5 stars on defense and run a power version of it.
September 25th, 2019 at 1:52 PM ^
You said spread offense produce soft defense and I disproved your point. Stop moving the goalpost. There are several other examples of spread offense team with elite defense.
September 25th, 2019 at 1:58 PM ^
read it again... I said if you run a spread, there is a benefit to your defense to run a power version of it.
you'd be better off shooting me down by saying our version was supposed to be a power version
which teams are you talking about?
September 25th, 2019 at 4:59 PM ^
It doesn't matter what kind of offense your team runs, you're moving the goalpost once again.
According to S&P defensive ratings, 18 of the top 25 teams runs spread offense so it literally do not matter what kind of offense you run in which it determines if a defense is good or not.
September 25th, 2019 at 2:01 PM ^
The issue is the Alabama and Clemson scout teams probably could beat most P5 teams and can give high quality looks in both spread and power schemes. The depth at those programs is insane.
September 25th, 2019 at 2:14 PM ^
which is to my point, they are anomalies... spread teams that have great defenses
I think you have to be stacked with talent on defense, but I also think running run a power version helps too
September 25th, 2019 at 2:56 PM ^
Top 10 S&P defenses 2018:
Mississippi State
Michigan State
Clemson
Washington
LSU
Auburn
Alabama
Georgia
Michigan
Notre Dame
Looks like mostly spread teams to me.
September 25th, 2019 at 3:15 PM ^
thanks, just like I said all teams that run a power version (except maybe Washington)
Aren't we supposed to be running a power version? Does this seem to be the case for all you experts on here?
September 25th, 2019 at 8:16 PM ^
Alabama runs a lot of 12 personnel...or at least they did last year.
September 25th, 2019 at 1:57 PM ^
Can tell you are having a rough go WesternWolverine96. I don't think this will help immediately, but it will get you to the next stage of getting over Saturday. The way you are feeling isn't actually about this last game, it is that Michigan has not become what it was seemingly so very close to being. It is the idea that Michigan can "get this cleaned up" this year and make it respectable, but that does nothing for what you thought the program was going to be, and that was made very clear on Saturday.
I don't know why that helped me when I figured it out. It would seem to make it worse, but when I came that realization I kind of let Saturday go. You aren't pissed or upset about Saturday, you are pissed about that this program did not become. I have come to the conclusion, however, that it was never as close as we thought it was, and for whatever reason that has allowed me to move on pretty quickly from that debacle.
September 25th, 2019 at 2:00 PM ^
I am sad to know this is going to take a while, with or without Harbaugh. I am especially sad that there is a strong chance it's without Harbaugh
September 25th, 2019 at 2:06 PM ^
I agree with u John. I had a dream last night that the way we’re playing is all a ploy to trick OSU into thinking we’re horrible and then taking it to them in the game. Kind of like they did to us last year. Seriously though, I never thought there was any chance we would be struggling in year 5 of Harbaugh. I don’t think anyone can really explain why we’re where we are with the state of the program. There must be a curse on the program! Only half kidding.
September 25th, 2019 at 1:42 PM ^
The NCAA is indeed, losing its tenuous control of the narrative. The concept of amateurism is not much more than a relic today. Sorry, Emmert, reality is catching up.
September 25th, 2019 at 6:22 PM ^
Brian's comment on the symbiotic bacteria is spot on. I was going to paste it again here, but that doesn't work on mobile on this site. The site is broken, the NCAA is broken, Michigan football is broken. Good times.
September 26th, 2019 at 1:32 PM ^
Came here to do that exact thing:
"The guys funneling chump change to players aren't noble vigilantes, they're symbiotic bacteria that help smooth amateurism's ability to digest giant piles of money."
When a sharp insight is wrapped in a brilliant metaphor, you have tremendous sports writing my friends.
September 25th, 2019 at 1:46 PM ^
I'm guessing the last line of the post is an homage to the Princess Bride, which was released on this day 32 years ago. Well done, Brian.
INCONCEIVABLE!
September 25th, 2019 at 3:31 PM ^
Unless I am wrong—and I am never wrong—he didn’t quote it correctly at all. I say it’s a coincidence.
Have fun storming the NCAA!
September 25th, 2019 at 1:46 PM ^
I still don't get who the starters are not buying-in that are not hustling / showing the physical play ... that must be a new issue given they were awarded the starting positions in a competition coming out of fall ball. I did not notice anyone giving less than their all. I saw a lot of mistakes on defense, but it looked more like a RPS issue than a hustle issue.
Edit - the safeties and cornerbacks looked confused while the LBs were washed out of the plays by 325lb guys at the line of scrimmage. To me, this 3-3-5 scheme was DOA against a team like Wisconsin.
September 25th, 2019 at 2:10 PM ^
why did the scheme work last year?
September 25th, 2019 at 2:21 PM ^
I just checked the UFR, Brian says they used the 3-3-5 in one running situation last year. It went for six yards. So it didn't work.
September 25th, 2019 at 2:11 PM ^
I thought that the 2010 Wisconsin game would have put to rest the notion that you can play a 3-3-5 scheme against Wisconsin...
In 2010 the badgers rushed the football for every play in the 2nd half.
September 25th, 2019 at 3:01 PM ^
I'm convinced the gameplan is different with better interior DL. You can probably stop 2010 or 2019 Wisconsin with a 335 if you have a Mo Hurst (or even a Mike Martin). Hurst can't play college football and Bielema famously chopped Mike Martin out of the game in 2010. You can't stop 2019 Wisconsin by sending LB's and DB's into the wrong gap.
The situation on defense isn't as existential as this place is making it out to be.
September 25th, 2019 at 2:43 PM ^
Watch Hill (#24) on Taylor's long TD run. He watches a man in motion and never even looks to see if Taylor might have the ball. This to me looked like a very lazy play on his part. Not criticizing, just an opinion and I know there are a lot of things going on in one play, but this one stuck out to me as maybe should've been a 15 to 20 yard run.
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