Mailbag: #AllGroundingOffense, Consolidation, 12 Man Audio
#AllGroundingOffense probably doesn't work as well as #AllPIOffense, but…
I have a question for the football brain trust at Mgoblog.
Should the quarterback always intentionally ground ball to avoid a sack?
It seems like a good idea to me. What is the downside?Phillip
Uh. I mean… he's not wrong? Since the penalty is "lol no this is still a sack" without anything extra tagged on, grounding is a penalty that's not really a penalty.
The main thing keeping quarterbacks from attempting any desperate chuck to avoid a sack is the potential for a turnover. I'm pretty sure Patterson's first fumble against Army happened because Patterson was trying to get the ball out after he saw the guy coming, and later in that game the MTSU QB's attempt to ground the ball should have been a pick six punt directly at Lavert Hill.
FWIW, I think grounding should be harsher. If you're in someone's grasp and you aren't making a genuine attempt to complete a pass that should be grounding. That includes booting the ball six yards OOB, throwing the ball to a running back in pass protection, and throwing the ball aimlessly in the middle of the field with no one within five yards.
[After THE JUMP: MSU twelve-man-on-the-field radio call]
Age of consolidation.
Brian,
I'd love to read your take on whether college football is broken (or damaged) in a way that is historically anomalous. Thinking to the very chalky results of last year, how the playoff participants have been such a small number of teams over five seasons, and how 2019 (so far) feels like we're all biding time until some mild variation of prior playoff brackets.
Thanks,
Mark
In some ways, yes. In other ways, no. There have always been teams that go on extended dominant runs, whether it was the Bobby Bowden Seminoles, the mid-90s Cornhuskers, or Oklahoma back in the 50s. The long-term dominance of Alabama isn't even the first time Alabama has done this.
What is starting to break the model is the recruiting dominance of an increasingly small number of schools. Economist Andy Schwarz recently followed up on a Deadspin article he wrote in 2014 about the increasing consolidation of top recruits. CFB continues to see its blue chips go to a smaller and smaller number of schools:
Why? There are probably a number of reasons but probably the foremost one is the combination of amateurism with the proliferation of a polished, smart Saban system in which players get paid with the approval of but without the direct involvement of the head brass. We have wiretap proof of Clemson adopting a similar model:
Clemson football was also discussed via wiretap by Clemson basketball asst coach Steve Smith like this, in relation to Zion hoops recruitment: "That's why football is so successful, is if you do it and use resources at Clemson, like you can really keep everything tight."
— Matt Norlander (@MattNorlander) April 25, 2019
And Georgia started recruiting like Alabama as soon as they hired a Saban assistant who had access to gobs of money. Ohio State had one year of meaningful sanctions after the whole Tressel thing and then hired Urban Meyer—if anything that incident allowed them to skip some Tressel years a lot like the Dantonio fade MSU is experiencing now. So if you have a culture of DGAF, the resources to spend, and a pool of recruits who increasingly look on NCAA amateurism as a scam, you can overcome previous barriers like distance and the fact that Alabama already has six five stars at your position.
The difference here is the level of professionalization—for lack of a better word—that the under-the-table system has taken on. If you're dumb and stupid like Ole Miss it falls apart. Saban hasn't had a peep of trouble, and nor has Dabo, for whatever reason.
Liberalizing compensation regulations for athletes would help this a bit. Several schools who aren't going full-bore ignoring NCAA rules, whether that's because they have ethical objections or they are just too incompetent to make it work, would enter the playing field. Shoe money would also help even things out. 100k plus a good shot at starting might be a winning argument in a way that 0k plus that is not.
Even that would only open it up a bit. The sport is increasingly national, so little regional miracles like Nebraska are probably dead and gone forever. What might help more is a period of coaching churn we might be coming up on. Saban is 67; Ohio State just hired a guy with no head coaching experience. If we get lucky both those schools will recede from recent peaks.
The hero we need.
— Paul Murphy (@paulbmurphy) September 15, 2019
He also has some additional aftermath. If there is a frat that manages to get this audio played at the Spartan Stadium gates for next year's game I will move it into the Very Good Frat category.
But different.
NFL RPOs don't look like college ones because you only get a yard downfield in the league, so they have to be outside zone almost exclusively. This was an interesting example and thus got tweeted to me:
@mgoblog is this a better version of what we tried to run vs army?
— moonji moragetty (@mumurthigal) September 17, 2019
For reference, this is the stretch RPO Michigan ran against Army with a similar backside slant:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZIAZc0lwDg
So it's not a "better" version of the play, it's pretty much the same thing. Army drops a LB into the slant so Michigan hands off; if Army had played the RPO like the Jets did the throw would have been on. Instead Army covered the slant and won a block at the LOS with a surprising dive inside.
Hypothetically a stretch that reaches the backside DT could break big because this backside LB is staying back, but Army slants so hard playside that a reach is not realistic. So you get this giant gap on the backside…
…and nothing to do with it.
If you're getting this a lot (and your QB doesn't have a rib injury) you could convert this into a QB keep where the slot receiver bashes the dropping LB. There's always a counterpunch. The worrying thing about the Army game was the ratio of plays like this where Army covers the slant and has a good plan for dealing with the 5v5 blocking surface to the frontside* and plays like the Bell flare screen that was a free nine yards.
*[that could be trouble for them but they have a thing that works against stretch and probably does even if the LT and LG don't get split.]
The very last Special K mention.
Since football isn't so fun to discuss, what are your thoughts on Special K so far? Old Town Road was trotted out at opener to an underwhelming response and there was no repeat for Army.
Honestly I don't even think about it anymore except as a source of generalized physic oppression. I remember when going to Penn State was a shocking assault on the senses, and now it's just another football game.
I'm doing my best to ignore it and only answered this question so that there's some explanation for the fact that I've completely stopped mentioning the in-game environment. I don't want to bother crabbing about it when nobody cares.
September 17th, 2019 at 1:15 PM ^
I'd just like to point that one of the MTSU DTs went full Dennis Norfleet dancing(and not scoring any touchdowns) when they played Old Town Road, which was very entertaining.
September 17th, 2019 at 1:17 PM ^
That OBJ touchdown last night reminded me of a few of those early Denard to Roundtree connections. Would like more please
September 17th, 2019 at 3:27 PM ^
New phone, Who Dis?
September 17th, 2019 at 4:36 PM ^
Dis is This - who dat?
September 17th, 2019 at 5:52 PM ^
The original Guy, check the date.
September 17th, 2019 at 11:11 PM ^
Guys!
September 17th, 2019 at 3:45 PM ^
The thing about that TD the NYJ gave up was not good defense. The alignment were out of whack, meaning no one is covering OBJ which is stupid to begin with and the deep S is 16-20 yards deep which is even stupider. They're begging for an easy yardage especially when you give it to one of the best WR in the league in OBJ. A better alignment would've negated the TD
September 17th, 2019 at 5:26 PM ^
Michigan ran that same play against Army, and Army defended it better than an NFL defense, forcing us to run into the teeth of their defense.
September 18th, 2019 at 10:21 AM ^
Was the give the only option? The receiver crossing from the right looks almost as open as OBJ was. Why didn't he get the ball?
September 19th, 2019 at 10:46 AM ^
The backside LB is reading the exchange, and is in position to cover the slant if Shea keeps. The ball is already in the RBs hands here, and the WR is only now making his cut. The pass is defeated by the LBs position pre and immediately post snap.
The handoff is an okay call here, IMO. If Hayes can chip his DE and handoff to Bredeson, then hunt down a LB, this run probably makes it to the safety before contact. Instead, Hayes gets beat/the Army guy makes a play so his teammates can clean up. Shea could keep here and put the LB who is covering the slot in a jam. Step towards Shea: Pass. Step towards coverage and he has green grass to run into. I think Shea's sore ribs and bruised confidence carrying the ball makes the call for him here.
September 17th, 2019 at 1:17 PM ^
holy shit, the "tressel gets canned, and ohio state avoids the inevitable fade" idea just blew my mind.
the notion went from the "interesting idea" area of my brain to the "searingly obvious truth" area in about a tenth of a second.
September 17th, 2019 at 1:30 PM ^
That timing was always ridiculous. I mean, fucking of course. Tressel gets "caught" a couple months after Urban comes on the market.
I guess it's good that they have football down there, because that's all they have.
September 17th, 2019 at 1:36 PM ^
Not to be the bearer of sad tidings but early returns on Ryan Day are pretty damn good - especially his play calling. And when you couple that with the improvement in defensive coaching (thanks to Benedict Mattison and Al Washington) they look better this year than I've ever seen them.
Maybe they'll be a fall off someday but it wont be anytime soon unfortunately.
September 17th, 2019 at 2:12 PM ^
My reading was that they would be pretty great this year, as they are still loaded with talent and he is a good schemer. The test will be when adversity strikes -- a tough road loss, an injured QB, an assistant leaves, etc. -- in future seasons, will the fanbase turn on his earlier than they would Urban? He's never been a head coach before and he inherited a very high standard.
September 18th, 2019 at 12:26 AM ^
Maybe O$U avoided an oncoming Meyer fade. His last year in Gainesville wasn't pretty. I think Zack Smith and some chronic "headache" was the perfect excuse to put Urban on the burn out express to LA.
September 17th, 2019 at 2:13 PM ^
Not to be that critic guy, but that would've been funnier if you'd called him Arnold Washington!
September 17th, 2019 at 2:43 PM ^
Can't blame Washington - he grew up with OSU and went 'home'. Mattison can fuck off and die in hell...
September 18th, 2019 at 10:25 AM ^
IKR. Mattison and the Harbaughs go back a ways. If I'm the Harbaugh family do I continue that relationship?
September 17th, 2019 at 2:15 PM ^
ehh...hard to say. He'll have to hack it as a recruiter, because that's how you judge cfb coaches. He will continue to win with Urban's players, but we won't know for 2/3 years how well he recruits. My guess is he won't be able to recruit at the level of Urban Meyer, who has been one of the greatest recruiters of the last 20 years. He might only be marginally worse or he might be significantly worse, we won't know for a bit.
September 17th, 2019 at 2:23 PM ^
They're 4th in both 247 & Rivals for 2020, have gotten commits from 2 of the top 10 players in the country and have more 5 stars committed than any schools other than big three SEC schools & Clemson. And he was able to get not one but two of our defensive assistants to leave Michigan and join his staff.
https://247sports.com/Season/2020-Football/CompositeTeamRankings/
https://n.rivals.com/team_rankings/2020/all-teams/Football
He seems to be doing ok in recruiting so far.
September 17th, 2019 at 3:15 PM ^
Yeah, I don't understand the "wait til he's got his guys" crowd. He's already proving to be just as good a recruiter, and possibly a better offensive mind. Urban was a master motivator, which is how they managed to win so many big time games. That's about the only thing I could see Day being worse at. Urban might drop a game to a weak team here or there, but they usually showed up on the big stage (Clemson being the very large, no-good exception). See: every Michigan game of Urban's tenure.
Let's hope they're wasting their energy and gameplans to try and play every game the same unlike Urban who would clearly save the extra motivation for rivalries and primetime games.
September 17th, 2019 at 6:08 PM ^
The bagmen haven’t left. Why would their recruiting drop?
September 17th, 2019 at 2:34 PM ^
Wasn’t the premise of Brian’s answer that a few programs (Bama, Clemson and yes, OSU) recruit using different standards? I.e., just because Tressel/Urban are gone, the free cars and tattoos culture lives on.
September 17th, 2019 at 2:16 PM ^
He was given the keys to the 3rd fastest car in the race (counting all of CFB). He'd be a terrible coach not to perform well with it.
Let's see how well he maintains it, and where he's at in 3 or 4 years.
September 17th, 2019 at 2:20 PM ^
I think it has less to do with his in-game chops and more to do with how he holds up as a recruiter. Urban was one of the best in the game - and so are Saban and Dabo. That's where you'll see the first signs of a decline (if there is one)
September 17th, 2019 at 2:30 PM ^
The upshot for us is that if he's a really good play caller, regardless of his recruiting chops the NFL will come calling. "Young offensive mind" is THE thing that teams are hiring right now. Especially since he has TEH NFL COACHING EXPERIENCE (which is all of two years as a QB coach, but it's recent and more than the zero that Kliff had). He's not running a ground-based system like Urban's preference was, his is a modern system that there's no doubt the NFL would be happy to have.
My preference: as payback to Ohio State and Steinbrenner for yoinking a senior Drew Henson season from us, Stephen Ross hires him to coach the Dolphins this offseason or the next.
September 17th, 2019 at 2:45 PM ^
That's an excellent point and something I hadnt considered until you just mentioned it. Unlike Meyer, Day had ZERO connection to OSU prior to being hired by Meyer in 2018 and was an NFL assistant prior to joining his staff and his offense if way more NFL-friendly than Meyer's was.
The question then will be "does he want to leave?" As evidenced by Lincoln Riley's decision to not go to the NFL despite multiple offers we may see Day do the same. The money is about the same nowdays and a successful college coach basically has a lifetime contract unlike the NFL where if you dont win by year two you're likely gone.
September 18th, 2019 at 12:15 AM ^
Someone call Stephen Ross and tell him to open up his checkbook. Get back at those OSU people for the Henson debacle.
Edit: damn the person you were replying to said the same exact thing, that's what I get for skimming.
September 17th, 2019 at 3:33 PM ^
I'd like to see his playcalling when he's playing teams with even comparable talent. OSU struggled at times last year when they ran into teams that could keep up with them (Michigan excepted), and that's where Meyer earned his money. Being able to call a good game against FAU isn't necessarily a sign of future success against everyone.
That said, he'll be a good coach. OSU isn't going to suddenly fall apart barring some massive mistakes. I do wonder if Fields goes down/goes into a funk how they'll respond; Meyer's default was always to slam his running game into teams when the going go tough, but Day is a pass-first guy it seems.
September 17th, 2019 at 3:50 PM ^
I'd like to see his playcalling when he's playing teams with even comparable talent.
if that’s the litmus test, he’ll be waiting until the CFP. OSU recruiting has really been unparalleled the last 4+years (other than Bama and Georgia). There is no other team in the big 10 that has comparable talent if based on recruiting unfortunately.
September 17th, 2019 at 3:50 PM ^
early returns on Ryan Day are pretty damn good
I'm sure he'll be good. But I'm also pretty sure he won't win 90% of his games like Meyer because that was insane. Probably "only" 80%.
September 17th, 2019 at 5:55 PM ^
I still think we should call Mattison "TOADS" - That Old Asshole Down South.
September 17th, 2019 at 9:55 PM ^
Hard to tell if this is a Larry Coker type thing or Day is going to be great. Super teams take a couple seasons before the fade happens.
One positive is OSU is pretty entitled right now. How will fans react to a loss? The bar is set pretty high for Day, even if he is successful it might not be enough.
September 17th, 2019 at 11:02 PM ^
Early returns are just that. Sample size too small and not representative.
September 18th, 2019 at 2:47 PM ^
Ryan Day could be an amazing coach but the odds of him literally being the next Urban Meyer are low.
Mark Helfrich also had great early returns fwiw
September 17th, 2019 at 1:18 PM ^
My insane football rules idea is to make intentional grounding similar to a penalty stroke in golf. Let's say it's first down and your QB is called for intentional grounding...guess what? Now it's 3rd down.
September 17th, 2019 at 1:22 PM ^
Isn't it already a loss of down? Intentional grounding on first down gets you 10 yards and straight to third down. I could be wrong.
September 17th, 2019 at 1:27 PM ^
If you're called for grounding on 1st down it then becomes 2nd down and a 10 yard penalty.
September 17th, 2019 at 2:59 PM ^
Not sure but it may be a spot foul even.
September 17th, 2019 at 3:53 PM ^
It's not a 10-yard penalty. It's effectively a sack - wherever you grounded the ball, that's where the play ends.
September 17th, 2019 at 3:55 PM ^
It's a spot foul. No additional yardage is taken off.
September 17th, 2019 at 1:31 PM ^
No it would be 2nd down
September 17th, 2019 at 1:31 PM ^
It's only a loss of down in the sense that you don't get to replay it due to the penalty. OP is saying that you should actually be penalized a down -- so if grounding happens on 1st down you do not repeat (current rule) => skip 2nd down (new) = now third down.
Will never happen, but would be interesting.
September 17th, 2019 at 2:17 PM ^
OK, so what's the penalty for grounding on 3rd down? Turnover on downs?
Now that's a penalty!!!
September 17th, 2019 at 3:17 PM ^
Grounding on 4th down means you lose all of your games forever
September 17th, 2019 at 2:30 PM ^
That's what it is. I always "thought" they lost a down. But not quite the way OP suggests.
September 17th, 2019 at 3:52 PM ^
That's not what "loss of down" means. It means you don't replay the down. You don't actually lose the next down.
September 17th, 2019 at 1:27 PM ^
I thought intentional grounding did include loss of down! My mind is blown!
September 17th, 2019 at 1:34 PM ^
So technically it does include a loss of down. If you are called for grounding on 1st down, you receive a 10 yard penalty and it becomes 2nd down. Under my insane proposal, you go straight to 3rd down. In golf, if you're 1st shot goes into the water, your next shot will be your 3rd stroke.
September 17th, 2019 at 1:43 PM ^
unlike most other penalties where you get backed up yardage and get the down back......
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