MLive article on Early Entries into the NBA
So, I know the topic of early entries into the NBA has been talked about a lot on here lately. In particular, the comparison between Beilein and Izzo and if they handle the situation differently. MLive has an interesting article up today that dives into the topic but also compares other Big Ten schools. I was intrigued to see that in Beilein's time here, he's had 11 early entries into the NBA and the number would grow to 12 if Iggy stays in the draft. During that same time, MSU has had 5 players leave early.
What really shocked me was to see that during Beilein's tenure, only 1 Wisconsin player has left early and Purdue has only had 2. I'll be the first to say that a decent sized part of the equation is the player development by Beilein and his guys. But there's just another part of the equation I just can't put my finger on. I don't know if it's that the other coaches, in their own way, advocate for players to stay or if players bore of Michigan's system (ie Poole). Either way, I think it's fair, when looking at more data to say something is different here. I'd be curious on folks thoughts on what it is.
Here's the article for those that are curious: https://www.mlive.com/wolverines/2019/04/to-stay-or-to-go-to-the-nba-differing-trends-at-michigan-and-michigan-state.html
You are looking for something that isn't there. The main reason why Michigan has had so many people leave early for the NBA is the player development.
How many players from Wisconsin or Purdue are in the NBA at the moment? Those two schools don't recruit NBA type players or develop them as Beilein does. This isn't to say Painter and Gard/Ryan do a bad job, it's just that they have different styles of play that aren't the NBA mold.
Look at MSU and their best players. More often than not, they are in the Cassius Winston variety where they are great college players, but not the superior athlete or high NBA upside type. Sure, they've had Gary Harris, Bridges, and Jackson...But they are the exception. There's a reason MSU made it back to a Final Four this year with no future NBA players on the team...It's Izzo's style.
Nothing is different at Michigan other than the types of players being recruited (raw but high-ceiling) and the quick/great player development.
You bring up some good points here. I do think there's something different here but again, I agree with you that a lot of it has to do with the types of players that Beilein goes after & the way he and his coaches develop players. But other than Trey, I'm not sure I remember a player coming back to 'win a championship'.
I think it's possible that nothing is there as you say but I think it's fair to look into this a little deeper like this article does.
April 30th, 2019 at 10:08 AM ^
Winston is coming back to "win a championship" because he knows that he likely wouldn't get drafted or if he did, would go to the G League as a low-ceiling NBA type player. It would be the equivalent of Derrick Walton announcing a return to college. It has all to do with the type of player and what their future is.
April 30th, 2019 at 10:14 AM ^
I was just about to say the same about Cassius not going back to win a championship. It just sounds good. Fans love the idea of the guys who says “screw my personal goals, whatever the program needs is paramount” and I get it but it’s not realistic to hold high ceiling guys or anybody to that.
Fans needs to remember kids (no matter the sport) don’t come to Michigan just to be the most selfless teammate in history. They come to achieve their personal goals. For a lot of them, that will include being a professional. They shouldn’t have to put that dream aside because their timeline doesn’t work for the fans.
April 30th, 2019 at 10:52 AM ^
@wee-bey,
I have been thinking this for the longest time. It's so easy to seem like a "team player or a we > me" guy when you don't really have a professional future or one that is very shaky at best. People are acting like Winston is spurring the NBA to come back and win one for Izzo. Nope, he's coming back because he doesn't have any other place to go. Ward is leaving because he doesn't want to come back and be a role player off the bench, you think Izzo tried to convince him to stay? I think the majority of guys Izzo recruits are high-floor guys (already developed, probably passed the point of NBA level development), with some exceptions. Where as Beilein recruits high-ceiling guys, a little more risk-reward, as can be seen by the amount of transfers we have had recently. But have the potential of paying-off in a major way!
April 30th, 2019 at 11:55 AM ^
Couldn’t agree more about Winston and Ward. Both made the right decision for themselves. Winston wasn’t going to get drafted this year. He isn’t going to improve his standing by coming back and he isn’t going to have a better year than he had this year, but he might as well enhance his MSU legacy, get his degree and then go play in Europe next year.
Ward won’t get drafted either, but he isn’t going to enhance his game by coming back, so he might as well get started on his Euro career now.
April 30th, 2019 at 10:11 AM ^
Hard to say that there are no future NBA players on MSU's roster. Tillman looks like he could be one and several of their young guys have lots of potential (specifically Aaron Henry).
April 30th, 2019 at 10:13 AM ^
I'll give you Tillman in this argument. But for Henry, I would say he's more of what Poole was last year. A solid freshman year which showed a ton of potential, but there's no reason to leave because you need another year.
April 30th, 2019 at 10:35 AM ^
I think I misunderstood your use of "no future NBA players" to mean "no future whatsoever," but I am realizing now I think you meant "no NBA future in 2019-2020" ... fair assessment?
April 30th, 2019 at 12:11 PM ^
I'd like to know specifically besides Tillman and Henry on MSU's current roster you feel has NBA potential? I'm not meaning just for this year, I'm talking about in general. I didn't see anybody besides those two that would lead me to believe there is a dearth of talent on the roster or anybody I look at and say "that kid is GOOD or going to be GOOD". I just looked at their roster and can recall seeing the following players in big games: Kithier, Loyer, Ahrens, Langford, Brown (had one crazy game). At this point, I'm WILLING to concede Langford (who was a starter, whose shot selection rivals Pooles). All those other guys have so much work to be done (which I understand because they are young) in order to be NBA ready. Izzo has not struck me as a coach that develops talent, but rather plays talented (college) players and hopes they stay. I can understand if you say "time will tell", but I'm just curious to read your thoughts on their roster.
This strikes me as... insanity. Izzo doesn't develop guys? When Draymond came in, the Freep was sounding off on how he wasn't a D1 talent and Izzo had lost his edge, quoting multiple anonymous coaches as saying he'd transfer to D2 by the end of college. Adreian Payne was a "project" who couldn't shoot, could hardly dribble, and couldn't take three long strides without getting winded and needing a break. Dawson was all hops and no D, left as a great defender. Alan Anderson and Chris Hill both developed significantly over their four years before making a final four (and Alan carved out a nice long career for himself in the pros). I could, honestly, go on and on. Do you think kids are blindly coming to him knowing they WON'T develop? Occam needs to cut you with that razor.
Did you consider bothering to GOOGLE? 2019 brah, no excuse for casual, low-effort stupidity.
I'll admit that Izzo does develop guys better than that comment implied, but using two 5 stars who both stayed 4 years in Dawson and Payne does not make the argument that you think it does.
Come on, man. Payne and Dawson were consensus five stars. Five stars aren't supposed to stay four years and need a ton of development. The fact that after four years they almost immediately washed out of or never sniffed the NBA doesn't help your argument.
Ratings are one thing (and, arguably, nothing more than irrelevant garbage used to sell subscriptions to rubes). But a guy's rating doesn't negate what actually happens on the court.
The fact of these guys tangibly and demonstrably improving over their tenure at MSU is entirely more objective, measurable, and instructive when it comes to answering the question "does coach Izzo successfully develop players?" than some service's superficial rating. I do understand that this particular fan base puts a lot of stock in those things, but... it's a bit silly in this application.
Frankly I'm not even sure what relevance it's meant to have; please help me understand. If a guy is highly rated coming in, then improves steadily over his career, has he "not developed"?
If a guy was under the radar as a recruit and blossoms in college, we'd count THAT as "development" but the identical career progression of someone who had higher accolades coming in wouldn't count as development? Is that what we're getting at here? Because this line of reasoning strikes me as dubious. Dubious as fuck.
April 30th, 2019 at 10:34 AM ^
Isn't Beilein doing himself a little bit of a disservice though if he's going to continue to recruit lower-ranked NBA types that end up leaving after 1 or 2 years?
It's almost like he's paying the penalty of a one-and-done type coach without getting the actual blue chip recruits.
I'll admit I'm still a football fan turned basketball fan so this stuff is relatively new to me. I just feel bad for Beilein; I thought next year's squad was going to be unstoppable until Iggy and Poole decided to leave early.
April 30th, 2019 at 10:45 AM ^
I actually had some similar thoughts about next season (and still think we could be really great, depending on what happens with these late recruits and grad transfers). But with Poole and the news that has come out, I think him moving on is a good thing. He was clearly pretty checked out the last half of the season and the stats back that up too. Some of the news coming out of his camp since he put his name in the draft hasn't been great.
We basically end up looking like UK and Duke as far as talent heading to the NBA but we dont recruit anywhere near their level. We have basically been a 2 and done school until Iggy. I cant even imagine what Beilein would consistently do with a large group of juniors and seniors. Always said that Beileins talent evaluation and coaching far exceeds his recruiting. I find it funny looking back and realizing that 4 of the 5 Fab Five stayed through their junior year.
April 30th, 2019 at 12:07 PM ^
Agree with this. Also, Michigan’s style of play is more closely aligned with the NBA style than either Wisconsin or MSU.
April 30th, 2019 at 12:12 PM ^
" How many players from Wisconsin or Purdue are in the NBA at the moment? "
Indiana: 8
Michigan: 8
MSU: 7
OSU: 5
Wisconsin: 4
Purdue: 3
Maryland: 3
I count 9 from Michigan; Wilson, Wagner, Robinson x 2, Burke, Levert, Hardaway, Stauskas and Crawford.
April 30th, 2019 at 10:31 AM ^
Beilein has had 9 players declare early and go through a draft. 7 were drafted higher than anyone from Purdue since their Glenn Robinson 25 years ago.
Wisconsin has had 3 players drafted in 12 years.
That might engender discussions of their respective recruiting and player development. It seems silly to compare the numbers of players leaving early as indicative of anything else.
Maybe compare Michigan to schools who have had a similar number of players drafted since Beilein arrived. You have to look outside the Big Ten to find any. Trying to spin that into something negative is a hard thing to do.
April 30th, 2019 at 10:36 AM ^
I certainly hope you didn't take it that I was trying to spin this into something negative. I think M players going to the NBA and being successful is one of the best things that can happen for recruiting of future players. I'm merely asking the question many are: is our number of early departures to the NBA alarming when looking at the bigger picture?
The article does mention that Duke has had 17 players leave early for the NBA and Kentucky has had 32(!?!?).
April 30th, 2019 at 12:05 PM ^
Izzo is such a phony. He bristles at comments that he tries to get his players to stay for his benefit instead of doing what is best for the players. Then he goes on to say that he tries to keep them from making a stupid decision (leaving early) and reminding them that other early departing players tell him that they miss playing in college. Every comment he made in that article reveals how he really thinks and what his objectives really are.
April 30th, 2019 at 12:19 PM ^
Marcus Taylor left too early in 2002 and Izzo has been milking that ever since. You just know his name gets brought up in every discussion he has with his players who have a real decision to make.
If you're determined to see the worst possible in someone, then that's what you will see. His guys remain loyal to him throughout their lifetimes. The relationships he builds are deep, the ties familial. I know it's a "rival" school, with the gall to operate on a different campus than yours and the poor taste to wear different colors, but MAYBE MAYBE MAYBE he is not the villain you imagine, but actually counsels his guys openly either way? Bridges is on record (multiple times) saying Izzo tried to talk him out of coming back. JJJ said Izzo encouraged him to go. Gary Harris said Izzo encouraged him to go.
Perhaps this is too complex for you to process; believe what you like by all means.
April 30th, 2019 at 12:58 PM ^
MSU seems like the outlier as compared to all schools, not just michigan. at schools that have players who potentially could be drafted, those players forego eligibility at a rate closer to michigan's than MSU's. nick baumgardner noted this on twitter.
This is nothing more than a dumb use of statistics - specifically "counting" stats - to examine an issue. The real question isn't how many go early (or stay), its at what rate they go early (or stay). To truly analyze this you need to look at the draft prospects of a player, determine what the "normal" decision is for a player with those prospects, and then measure the rate at which players make the "normal" decision. Of course this is pretty hard to do for a single program as the sample sizes are so small. That being said, a quick googlin shows that over the time period in question MSU had 8 eventual draftees, 3 (Draymond, Payne, Dawson) of which decided to "stay" (i.e play until they were seniors) whereas U of M had 10 draftees, 1 (LeVert) of which decided to stay. Looking at those #'s and stating that they are "very different results" is a pretty poor conclusion.
This is nothing more than a dumb use of statistics - specifically "counting" stats - to examine an issue. The real question isn't how many go early (or stay), its at what rate they go early (or stay). To truly analyze this you need to look at the draft prospects of a player, determine what the "normal" decision is for a player with those prospects, and then measure the rate at which players make the "normal" decision.
This is spot on. But neither the average journalist nor the average reader has the understanding of statistics necessary for the difference to matter. That said, your point is completely sound: both sample sizes are so small as to be worthless in terms of actually picking out meaningful trends or variances. This is an offseason fluff piece to fill space and pull in some clicks.
All of the players Beilein recruited that left early have been taken in the first 50 picks of the NBA draft (9 out of 9). 7 out of 9 were taken in the first round. All of them have made the right decision to go pro, imo. Poole maybe should've stayed in school, but that remains to be seen.
Coach Beilein believes that it is his job/mission to not only win championships but to create professional baskeball players. He has compared what he does to what other educators at Michigan do. He uses time in each practice to teach skills that get players to the next level.
Coach Izzo believes that his job is to win. Note that Cassius Winston still shoots his jump shot with the ball at nose level. Ward never developed an outside game.
Izzo says coaches care more than the parents. He thinks he can say anything and people believe. Fucking puke.