Basketbullets: Montana The Second
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3/21/2019 – Michigan 74, Montana 55 – 29-6, Round Of 32
There's not too much to say about an opponent who listed all five starters as guards and was so small that Jon Teske got 23 minutes and had one foul in that time. This was the opening tip.
The announcing crew spent most of the first 25 minutes openly hoping Montana could get their ass in gear and make it a game, and most of the last 15 talking about Reggie Miller's blood feud against a Michigan tuba. At one point Montana got a bucket and the tenor of the conversation is "Michigan's letting them hang around!" It was a two-point run from 15 down to 13 down.
The final score doesn't quite do it justice. Michigan was up 27 with six minutes left when blowout sloppiness set in, allowing Montana to score on seven of their last nine possessions. Before that: 39 points on 59 possessions. Like last year there was a point at which it was clear that Montana was out of offensive ideas. Unlike last year this point was their first shot.
So here we are on the 10th anniversary of Michigan's first Beilein bid, being bored. The foul-fest that was Nevada-Florida pushed Michigan's game a half-hour late, so the spacing on all the late games got mucked up. By the time Michigan was up 27 or 24 I kind of wanted to flip to the momentarily lit Wofford-Seton Hall game that Twitter was flinging up exclamation marks about.
Time to stop and think about where we are.
Hook oop! Oblig:
I want to see that 5 times a game from now on plz.
[after the JUMP: a spectacular photoshop]
Failure to devastate. Bonner/Reggie/etc weren't wrong when they spent a bunch of the first half marveling that Montana managed to stay within 20. At no point did this game feel like one that would ever devolve into a competitive one, and yet it took Michigan a good long while to push it out to 20.
This was a rickety offense thing. Michigan doesn't prepare to wallop on vastly overmatched opponents, and doesn't post, so there was not an endless parade of Teske dunks on which the opposition's only option was to fall over and hope to draw a foul. That happened exactly once. Teske had 11 points against Foster Loyer, The Team.
Meanwhile Montana was able to jump a lot of passing lanes and force TOs. (The uncontested dunks afterwards proved even more of an issue than actual Michigan players.) At times Michigan fell back into last year's Montana-induced stupor, except that's just a thing that happens with this team.
via twitterer @cabin__13
Please leave a bowl of milk out for Tournament Matthews. After 22 points on 15 shot equivalents this was Matthews's first Kenpom MVP since the first Indiana game. That feels enormous. Here's the bit where we acknowledge that Matthews is the most elite wing defender of all elite wing defenders. Here's the next bit where we're all like "
Montana doesn't count in that department but even so, watching Matthews up-fake and get to the rim stirred old feelings. Part of his game is being decent on midrange fadeaway jumpers and he was probably bad at those this year largely because he had bad luck. Those are opponent invariant.
The frustrating bit about this year was just how much Matthews usage got stuck into Other Twos. He had three shots against MSU, all of them iso fadeaways. Brutal. It felt like the guy got scouted to death.
Here's to new opponents and short turnarounds.
TIMMY FALLS. I want to make it clear that I'm not passing a value judgment here. But this is something:
Timmy Falls is Breaking Bad, the human pic.twitter.com/875yNXpglZ
— mgoblog (@mgoblog) March 22, 2019
This is a man with a Soundcloud. If I go back and rewatch Breaking Bad there's a 32% chance he'll be Jesse. When we play Montana in next year's tournament he's going to look even more like an instagram rapper. It is amazing.
Poole, restrained. This was again a chastened Poole. When he got an and-one on his only two he just got up and took his free throw, stone-faced.
It felt like the kind of Poole who cuts his hair to show he's serious now, even though he did not cut his hair. Watch him after he throws up an oop to Iggy:
The effervescence was absent.
Even so the feed got testy early when Poole curled off a screen for a three that did not go down. That was a perfectly fine shot on a play designed to get him that exact look. Maybe it was a bit contested, sure, but it's a far cry from a lazy stepback. It rattled in and out and Matthews was able to get a putback in part because the team was moving and running offense.
Poole played within the structure of the offense and finished with an efficient 10 points on 8 shot equivalents with a couple assists and a turnover. He was also a part of Michigan's stellar team defense.
Matthews being able to shoulder more of the offensive burden helped a lot there, as Poole wasn't forced into late clock situations. Michigan also largely avoided pick and roll because of Montana's trapping, preventing the frustrating switch/stepback sequence that submarined Michigan so many times against MSU.
[Barron]
Teske vs 6'5". Teske did a good job against Sayeed Pridgett, for the most part. To do so he had to leave him open from three. Pridgett took an open early three that rattled out and I thought this might be a problem, but he really really did not want to continue shooting from the outside. Despite the clear invitation to he had just two more attempts, with one make. I don't get it. Pridgett was 19/41 on the season. If you are a 46% three point shooter you should probably increase your rate of attempts until it's at least, you know, two per game.
Pridgett did have one spectacular take on Teske and had a couple more tough conversions to keep his head relatively above water.
Teske vs contests. Teske issue from three is that when he's rushed he leaves it way short. His early make:
Airballs don't make highlight reels so the subsequent rushed one isn't on this reel, but Teske was concerned with the closeout and just trying to get the ball out of his hands. The Fernando Problem. Hopefully he can get a bit quicker with his release over the offseason.
Something was Said [Barron]
Iggy gonna Iggy. Brazdeikis converted an and-one late, well after things had been decided. This didn't stop him from his usual roar-flexing. This is fine. The next trip down the floor he got torched for a bucket, causing Montana bench-mobbers to stand up and flex at Iggy. This is also fine. It was the most entertainment anyone got from the second half, at least.
A recovery. Michigan started 1/6 from the line and made 18 straight after. Matthews went 5/6 to pull him up to 65% on the year. That's a ten point improvement.
March 22nd, 2019 at 12:26 PM ^
Is a chastened Poole a good thing entirely? I worry...
March 22nd, 2019 at 12:55 PM ^
Yeah to beat the really good teams we need him to have the confidence to take and hit some tough shots and get to the basket on some tough drives. 10 points from Poole isn't going to be enough to beat Gonzaga or duke or even texas tech
I agree and yet also think back to each MSU game. If chastened Poole was present and had looked to pass more and drive more, we would've beaten a really good team, probably twice.
If Poole scores 10 and Michigan scores 74...they will beat Texas Tech.
I don't think he wasn't trying to get his shots, but he did so within the offense. My issue with him this year has been that at times he wants to just heat check a team for a couple of minutes and he's simply not good enough yet to carry the offense for long stretches. But I have no doubt that when needed he'll put up shots
Yes, given it is the best thing that is within the realm of possibility. He's not Sophomore Stauskas so a chastened Poole is much better than the bad Poole that is only other Poole we've seen this year and which cost Michigan a couple MSU games.
Next year if he can be Sophomore Stauskas and be a threat to drive and pass such that he doesn't settle for so many contested jumpers that would be the ideal Poole. He's not there. So he should just spread the floor and take what the defense gives him - especially if Matthews is going to play like this.
And FTR, by my count, Poole had 10 points on 6 shot equivalents, NOT 8 as was published here. He was 2-4 FG and 5-5 FTs with an And1. That's just 6 shots.
Poole is the most talented and dynamic player on this roster. The kid could take over a game if given the opportunity. The problem is that he is 19 years old, knows he is very talented and is not put in a position to employ his abilities. Here, I do not believe we will have to wonder if he will be a "sophomore Stauskas" because my guess is that he is going to forgo the frustration of playing within an offense that handcuffs him at every turn-for another year. You guys can continue to rip on Jordan all you want...he is not the problem. When you have a PG and a center whom the defense does not respect you are in a perpetual "damned if you do damned if you don't" situation-as a two. Matthews and Iggy are often targeted with similar criticisms...which are unjustified for the same reasons as Poole.
The second half of the season the B1G began taking notice of Michigan's limitations. Montana was so out-manned they could not make much of a contest out of it-though they did get back into the game. I cannot believe that a decent team will not take a close look at MSU's strategy and give our team a very difficult time. I don't believe Florida can pull this off.
Completely agree that he's the most talented and dynamic player on the roster.
You're 100% wrong about opportunity being the only thing keeping him from taking over games. He's been given lots of opportunities to take over games and he's not done well with them (at Wisconsin, at Iowa, at PSU, all the MSU games, etc). He's just not a good decision maker at this point and doesn't create for others well enough. Too many step back contested jumpers. He's excellent going to the hole but doesn't have a good feel for when to do it and when not to.
If he were a better decision maker, he would be taking over games like Burke and Stauskas and Walton did. He's not there yet. And yes, he's young. He has time. But since he's not there in terms of decision making, it's better to put him in a deferential role/corner gunner. The team is better when he plays that way. This year.
March 22nd, 2019 at 12:26 PM ^
I vote we don't play Montana again next year in the tournament. Thanks.
March 22nd, 2019 at 12:40 PM ^
I'm starting to fear that "Montana in the tournament" is our "Florida in bowl games" thing
March 22nd, 2019 at 12:47 PM ^
Eh.....guaranteed pass to the second round? That's not a bad thing.
Ya agreed...to Brian's point above, we should (and I think most of us do) step back and appreciate this for a second. NCCA tourney is now a regular thing, 2 seed, we all knew it was going to be a blood bath, we weren't crisp and the game was never ever in doubt
This is best time to be a Michigan bball fan in a long long time. Just a reminder that people thought Amaker was a better coach.
I think the last of the "AMAKER NEEDED ONE MORE YEAR" crowd are finally starting to starve out in their basement bunkers. Maybe in 5 years or so the Richrod crowd will finally die out too
Michigan will be a 1 seed next year...so it will probably be someone new.
Thus far, every time we've played them in the first round we've gone on to the national title game, so I can't really complain.
indeed it's a very nice pattern.
March 22nd, 2019 at 12:31 PM ^
65% is a ten point improvement on free throw shooting. Why are we so abysmal at such an easy facet of the game? It seems like it would take relatively little practice time to get most guys to 80% or better.
March 22nd, 2019 at 12:42 PM ^
From what I've read it is 100% a mental thing as reports have been that Matthews makes about 85-90% of his attempts in practice but 65% in games (I'm sure fatigue plays an issue as well).
Ben Wallace suffered the same problem where he had good form and was great in practice, but just couldn't make them in games. I imagine making free throws in a stadium of 10 - 30k people is more difficult that we like to think as fans. Simpson's improvement this season gives me hope that Beilein can get any player to be acceptable-ish from the line.
A huge factor into free throws is when there is no pressure or expectations (you can miss 20 in a row in practice and really it doesn’t mean anything) you get into a rhythm and find the correct firmness and knee bend when you shoot. Well when you are in the game, adrenaline is pumping which biologically makes you stronger and you do the same thing in practice and everything is off the heel of the rim. I always moved back about 5-6 inches off the line when I shot FTs in a game and shot them the same exact way I did in practice and was successful. But you miss one or two and all of a sudden you’re thinking when you shoot and you start missing left and right and it’s a big ol mess. Free throw shooting is one of the most seemingly simple things in sports that is one of the most difficult.
I shot FT at 76% in HS and never practiced them. Could easily get to 85+ if I took it serious. Played 90% of the game also so was tired. As another “cool story bro” shot 54% from 3.
I practiced 3s my entire life and never free throws. I only played organized basketball junior and senior year of high school. Im sure I could have improved free throws to at least the mid 80s. Also why did I get 6 downvotes ? People dont like me talking about myself or think I’m lying ?
We were abysmal but not anymore. A 10% improvement is awesome. Kudos to Matthews. I think Simpson has had a similar improvement.
March 22nd, 2019 at 12:38 PM ^
Poole's demeanor really stuck out to me as well while watching. I liked it, he seemed focused and played disciplined and smart. Just make a shot, run back to defend. It also kind of made me feel bad: I read into it that he was well aware of how the fanbase complains about him.
I'm sure that it's not the fanbase, but the coaches. He's easily the weakest starter and with Eli Brooks starting to make some shots, he's going to get pushed from behind. In the first substitution last night, he and Teske were the first to get subbed, Teske because he was almost too big for the game and Poole because he made some mistakes early.
I constantly look at the development of Poole and Iggy. The main difference is that Iggy has started to play within the system and has improved his shot selection. Poole really hasn't. Iggy's defense seemed the most problematic early in the season and Poole's has seemed to be that late.
He needs to get his head on straight or he probably won't be starting next year. The coaches are probably telling him this and that's what's probably taken its toll on him. When he plays with the system and it clicks for him, he's going to be a dominant force. Between him and Iggy, the improvement in next year's offense is going to be insane.
Brooks is doing better considering he couldn't get much worse than when he was struggling earlier this year, but neither he, nor anyone else is pushing Poole out of the starting line up next year. Who are the other 2s on the team? Nunez maybe and he has played all of 10 minutes in mop up time. He's not going from the last freshman to starting in the Big Ten in 1 offseason.
Brooks is playing it right now, but he's 6'1" and not the long term solution at that spot. He should be Simpson's backup but at this point Simpson pretty much plays 35+ minutes per night and they cover the other 5 minutes with Brooks/DDJ.
Poole needs to continue to develop, take better shots, work on getting to the basket, and not have the mental lapses that usually come with him trying to do something cool or impressive. But his ceiling is putting up 20+ point games with some regularity. Brooks isn't anywhere near that and neither is Nunez.
Brooks is the type of player who needs more game time minutes to get better. I don't know that he's ever going to be a major contributor if he just gets a few minutes here and there. He has talent, no doubt. The more he plays, the better he'll get.
Sure, that's probably accurate. But his ceiling isn't on the same planet as Poole's, especially at the 2. I'd even argue his floor is lower as well because he was pretty bad in the middle part of the season to a point where DDJ got minutes over him.
As I said, Poole can go off for 20+ on any given night. Even with his clunkers, he's still over 12/game. Brooks hasn't hit 10 points this year even when he was playing ~20 minutes/game in the first 1/4 of the season.
I have criticized Poole a bunch for stupid shots, lack of focus on defense, and generally trying to be too pretty. But the 6'1" PG isn't taking his spot next year at the 2.
But, Bajema is 6’7” and can handle the ball and hit the 3. Not saying he will start, but he can push for some of those minutes.
He's 6'7", 175lbs and not an Iggy level 1st year starter/major contributor. Few people are.
He's not going to unseat a junior, returning starter. Maybe take a few minutes, sure. Not like he's going to be playing 10-15 minutes per game in important stretches.
"easily the weakest starter?"
That's just ridiculous. Of the starters, he's #2 in 3 point shooting percentage (even with late in shot clock 3's) and #1 in free throw shooting on the entire team. He may be our best finisher at the rim. He's #2 in assists per game. He's second on the team in steals per game. His defense has improved significantly although he's not perfect - even Simpson makes mistakes on D (leaving McQuaid wide open for 3 at the end of the last MSU game for instance). He may have the highest ceiling of any player on the team and reached that ceiling a few times this year.
He may be able to do some things better than most, but I think he is the least important starter. Which player would you rather have to play without? Potential and high ceilings are great, but when you are playing below that level (which he is), you become an average player.
Bad shots are turnovers. Turnovers and missed defensive assignments lose games.
All the starters fill a critical role. All starters take bad shots and make turnovers. If you look at game film, you'd realize this - Matthews throwing up low percentage fade away 2's, Simpson bricking 3's, Iggy throwing up air balls in the lane, Teske air balling 3's. At the end of the MSU game, Simpson bricked a wide open 3 and Iggy airballed a shot in the lane. And even Simpson makes errors on defense - he left McQuaid wide open for a huge 3 at the end of the MSU game. I don't think Poole is any less critical than any other starter. Without Poole creating offense, hitting clutch free throws and forcing turnovers, I do not think we have any real chance in the later rounds of the tourney. In fact, last year we would have been done in the second round without him.
I just don't get the Poole haters - the numbers just don't back it up. You can't just take all the great plays he makes for granted and focus on the bad plays or missed shots.
March 23rd, 2019 at 12:10 AM ^
Bad shots are not turnovers. Sometimes bad shots go in. Sometimes bad shots get rebounded.
So prefacing this with the criticism of Poole in this comment is over the top and generally not good. BUT...
He may be our best finisher at the rim.
That's definitely not accurate. Matthews and Iggy finish around the rim significantly better than him and it's not even close. Heck, even Simpson probably finishes better around the rim given that Poole doesn't go to the rim much. When he does, he generally throws up overhand layups that get thrown out of the gym like they did against Maryland (Bruno, so eh) and MSU (Tillman).
Of the starters, he's #2 in 3 point shooting percentage
Convenient that the #1 shooter is the 6th guy and not a starter, but he's the #2 of the starters because the PG is horrendous, Teske is 7'1" and Matthews has never been a good shooter. He'd be the 4th best 3 point shooter on last year's roster, 7th on the Stauskas team, and 5th on the Burke team. Point being, he's a good shooter, but he's the 2nd or 3rd best shooter on this team because this team doesn't have many good shooters.
His defense has improved significantly although he's not perfect
He has had a lot of ill-timed defensive lapses over the last month that make us forget about the majority of the season. He's solid, not Matthews level good, but solid. He does make some pretty terrible decisions like that switch @MSU for the dunk, leaving McQuaid open a bunch, biting on every pump fake, and fouling McQuaid on 2 separate 3s.
His ceiling is high because he has a natural stroke that others don't, is 6'5", and has plenty of athleticism. He has a lot of refine though and this team isn't built for him to blossom.
"Matthews and Iggy finish around the rim significantly better than him and it's not even close. Heck, even Simpson probably finishes better around the rim given that Poole doesn't go to the rim much. When he does, he generally throws up overhand layups that get thrown out of the gym like they did against Maryland (Bruno, so eh) and MSU (Tillman)."
Poole has the highest shooting percentage (52.2%)inside the 3 point line of all the starters with the exception of 7'1" Teske (for obvious reasons). Simpson is at 51.9%, Iggy and Matthews are both at 47.9%. Expert basketball analysts have called him the team's best finisher at the rim.
"Convenient that the #1 shooter is the 6th guy and not a starter, but he's the #2 of the starters because the PG is horrendous, Teske is 7'1" and Matthews has never been a good shooter. He'd be the 4th best 3 point shooter on last year's roster, 7th on the Stauskas team, and 5th on the Burke team. Point being, he's a good shooter, but he's the 2nd or 3rd best shooter on this team because this team doesn't have many good shooters."
So.. I'm right. The ONLY two players with a higher percentage of 3's are shooting greater than 40% - you do realize that over 40% from 3 is not just good but great. Poole himself was at 50% for awhile until teams started to key on him. This team does have several good shooters but for some reason has trouble getting them great looks much of the time. As for Poole, his numbers are a little lower now but he's still probably the best outside shooter on the team - he wasn't called "baby Steph" in high school for nothing. Other teams know this and key on him outside the 3 point line. Also, he takes a lot of contested 3's at the end of the shot clock and probably should drive instead.
"He has had a lot of ill-timed defensive lapses over the last month that make us forget about the majority of the season. He's solid, not Matthews level good, but solid. He does make some pretty terrible decisions like that switch @MSU for the dunk, leaving McQuaid open a bunch, biting on every pump fake, and fouling McQuaid on 2 separate 3s."
It would be interesting if there were number rather than guesses such as "a lot of." As for one of those fouls on McQuaid, it was an incorrect call and not a shooting foul. Others missed assignments on McQuaid including Simpson who left him wide open to drain a three near the end of the game.
"His ceiling is high because he has a natural stroke that others don't, is 6'5", and has plenty of athleticism. He has a lot of refine though and this team isn't built for him to blossom."
He also is unusually skilled offensively (evident earlier in the season on some drives to the rim) but he's become more passive and hasn't been as aggressive (perhaps for fear of a mistake). This team needs his aggressiveness offensively and the offense has suffered without it.
We can agree to disagree.
March 23rd, 2019 at 10:57 AM ^
Inside the 3 point line =/= "at the rim". He has a pull up jumper that Matthews doesn't have and doesn't go into traffic like Iggy does. Regardless, how many times have you seen Poole drive all the way to the rim and finish through contact in the half court? Not a lot. And even if he does finish better than everyone else not named Teske, he's 5th in 2PA meaning he doesn't do it a lot, especially off the dribble. The back cuts and screens get him open layups far more than taking a guy to the bucket.
As for his 3 point shooting, yes you're "technically" correct, but as you pointed out he has come back to earth after starting hot/being hot mid-season. He has had 11 sub 35% games from 3 over his last 15 including some 2/9 and 2/8 games. I know 40% is very good, but the fact remains he's 3rd on a meh shooting team and if you think back to good shooting teams, he wouldn't be top 3. He would be better if he had more shooters around him to help spread the floor, but the point is he's not an A+ option right now like Stauskas/Levert/Burke/Walton were.
You mention the 1 time Simpson didn't check McQuaid, I mention the 2 fouls (wrong call or not, he jumped out of his shoes) the blown switch and you're talking to me about "a lot" not being a good argument. The fist MSU game he bit on every shot fake and took himself out of the play at least 3 times without ever adjusting.
This makes it seem like I think the guy is trash, which I don't. He has a lot of good qualities and abilities but he's not at the level of past Michigan greats just because he shoots better than 4/7 of the guys who get minutes on this team.
His starting spot is not in jeopardy and it won't be next year but some of his playing time is, thankfully. When Brooks was mired in a bad slump, Beilein didn't want to play him and openly admitted he would like to play Poole less (this was after the first MSU loss in which Poole was horrible), he just didn't have anyone to play for him. That meant Poole couldn't be held accountable.
Now that Brooks seems to have his confidence back and is a perfectly adequate backup, Poole can't just take bad shots and tell Beilein to relax without any consequences. Now if he makes bad plays, he sits. So it makes him play smarter and that's good.
March 22nd, 2019 at 12:42 PM ^
So I was right to be worried when I noticed Beilein disappear at halftime into a beaten down, old mobile home with Timmy Falls.
JESSE
WE'LL COOK IN SOME ARENA IN IOWA NAMED AFTER A BANK
March 22nd, 2019 at 12:49 PM ^
Those are the eyes of a guy who is still pondering the pros and cons of actually making an effort to win that jump ball.
Poole has a Post-procedure-Chief in Cuckoo's Nest vibe. Not sure I'm digging it.
Maybe his tournament level of swaggitude depends on opponent and game situation.
We won by a bunch. Could have won by a bunch more. I am digging it.
Seriously, though, on this team, there are a number of players who are all really good and who can, on any given day, be the offensive star. Last night it was Matthews, with a good dose of Iggy. Other games it has been Teske, and other games Poole.
As long as Poole continues to develop his overall game and makes smart plays, while I do like Poole's energy and, confidence and enthusiasm, I'm good with him being more subdued. And, I expect that we will see both hyper-excited Poole and restrained Poole at various times in this tourney.
chief didn't get the procedure, macmurphy (nicholas) did.
I hope that Teske's able to develop a shot fake and driveto the basket next year. With big guys flying at him in a close out, it would only take a simple show of the ball to get them to leave their feet. With how big teske is, one dribble would get him to the basket. I would both give him another weapon to use as well as give him more time to get his shot off as bigs wouldn't be able to close out so hard.
Bruno is a whole other thing on his own, but most guys aren't going to block Teske's 3s unless they're already within a hand check of him or flying by. Moe wasn't taller and didn't shoot from a higher point, and he didn't have issues with guys blocking his shots (probably had a faster trigger). Teske's shot is at a lower angle, but he's still launching from above his head.
Teske seems to get rushed when he sees guys closing out, but I don't think he needs to be. He might perceive the guy coming at him as being capable of blocking the shot, but more often than not the guy isn't going to leave his feet to block it and it might not even matter if he did anyways because Teske is 7'1".
A pump and blow by would be awesome, but I think he needs to hit some in guys' eyes first.
Completely agree. He needs to slow down. He is unnecessarily rushing too many shots. Guys aren't even close to blocking that.
The Kotter photoshop is divine but I can't remember which one is supposed to be Arnold Horsshack.
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