Where will Michigan be ranked in the first CFP rankings?
Tonight is the unveiling of the first CFP rankings on ESPN at 7. So where do you think Michigan ends up? Do they stay at 5? Does UGA jump them?
Also, who is your top 10?
My prediction:
Bama, Clemson, ND, LSU, UM, UGA, Oklahoma, OSU, Wazzou, UCF.
Do not want to put OSU there but think the committee will.
What say you?
October 30th, 2018 at 12:01 PM ^
Oklahoma has 1 quality win to our 4, their opponents have a lower win ratio of .47 to our .63, and we have put up more points vs P5 opponents, allowed less points than Oklahoma at a rate of 2.11 to 1.77, and we have the better loss at an away night game to 8-0 ND vs theirs to 6-2 Texas.
They can't using their own metrics, put Oklahoma ahead of us at this point in time.
October 30th, 2018 at 12:16 PM ^
What I’ve noticed is that the committee in the past has also gone off the eye test. Oklahoma’s offense is unreal and their d the last two games has gotten better. They can pretty much hang with anyone is my thought on that. Also they seem to look ahead as well as far as schedule and where your opponents are ranked when you play. Meaning after LSU loses to Bama their out. If Michigan wins out their in I don’t see any way you can keep them out. I also don’t think it matters if Michigan is 4,5,6 right now as they just need to win out if they don’t their out. I think we need to focus on the task at hand because the only team that I believe can beat us on our remaining schedule is the team their playing this weekend
October 30th, 2018 at 3:09 PM ^
Well, their "improved" defense was against TCU and Kansas State, not exactly top-caliber Big 12 offenses they are used to seeing (I mean TCU lost to KANSAS people...KANSAS. Also TCU hasn't put up more than 28 points since their first two weeks of the season against tomato cans.)
I'm more interested to see if their defense can hold up against Texas Tech or West Virginia. I think they will come crashing back to earth in one of those games, if not both.
October 30th, 2018 at 5:05 PM ^
"Oklahoma’s offense is unreal and their d the last two games has gotten better."
Yes, and "Michigan’s defense is unreal and their o the last two games has gotten better (and is much better than OU's defense)."
The eye test favors Michigan too, as long as your eye can appropriately recognize dominant defense.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:34 AM ^
I believe we will be 5th, but would not be shocked to see UGA slide in front of us and knock us to 6th. If we beat PSU and Bama beats LSU (hate rooting for Bama but chaos could ensue if they lose, where even if we win out I feel we could likely be left out) we move up to 4th and stay there until the final ranking while we take care of our business.
I would not be surprised if UCF was ahead of some of the 1 loss teams including OSU and WSU.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:36 AM ^
- Alabama
- ND
- Clemson
- Michigan
- LSU
- Oklahoma
- Georgia
- Kentucky
- WSU
- UCF
Now I don't really agree with this, but I think it will look like this.
ND has arguably played the toughest schedule and should be #1, and Clemson has played absolutely no one, but that's the world we live in.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:36 AM ^
Either 4,5, or 6. Doesn’t matter one way or the other it will all sort itself out. BEAT psu!
October 30th, 2018 at 11:37 AM ^
Don’t give a damn. Win The Game.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:51 AM ^
Picking a national champion from among only 4 teams has always been a problem, to me. I have never understood why they didn't Institute a system in which the power 5 Conference champions plus 3 at-large teams played for the championship. The current system leaves too many unanswered questions.
October 30th, 2018 at 5:01 PM ^
They "pick" a national champion from like 130+ FBS teams. It's just that only four make it to the semi-finals. Just like any other sport. Four in the semis.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:51 AM ^
SHOULD BE:
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. ND
4. MICHIGAN
5. LSU
6. Georgia
WILL BE:
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. ND
4. LSU
5. Michigan
6. Georgia
LSU and UM both have 5 wins vs P5 teams. The P5 teams LSU has played have a collective win% of 69% (33-15) while the P5 teams we have played have a win% of 63% (30-18). That's a pretty much a push in my book.
But LSU's one loss is at 6-2 Florida by 8 pts, versus our one loss at undefeated ND by 7 pts. We clearly have the better loss.
Advanced stats also put us significantly ahead of LSU. Michigan is ranked 4th in S&P+ while LSU is ranked 13th.
But I still think that they put LSU ahead of us and then let this Saturday sort things out. If LSU beats Bama on Saturday, then they hop ahead of us no matter what. If they lose to Bama, then they drop below us - so the first ranking for LSU don't seem to matter as much because their "real" spot has yet to be determined.
Bottom line: We just have to beat PSU this week. Playoff stuff will work itself out if we keep winning.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:51 AM ^
I think we'll start out at #5. If LSU is ahead of ND then I think that you may see UM at #6 and UGA at #5.
Also, this is a pretty interesting read about the staff that runs the selection committee/process.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:51 AM ^
- Alabama
- LSU
- Notre Dame
- Kentucky
- Georgia
- Clemson
- Florida
- Mississippi State
- Texas A&M
- Mizzou
Everyone knows everyone in the ESS EE CEE would go undefeated in any other league
October 30th, 2018 at 11:54 AM ^
I think it will be like this for the first:
1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. LSU
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6. Michigan
October 30th, 2018 at 11:55 AM ^
I would bet the farm that Georgia will be ahead of us because...SEC. I don't see much change otherwise.
October 30th, 2018 at 12:07 PM ^
Lets bet, sir.
Based on the committees criteria we have:
Georgia: 2 quality wins, 5 wins vs P5, P5 opponent win record of .58, P5 point differential of 1.74 (how many points do you score vs allow), and quality of loss, by 20 to 7-1 LSU.
Michigan: 4 quality wins, 5 wins vs P5, P5 opponent win record of .63, P5 point differential of 2.11(how many points do you score vs allow), and quality of loss, by 7 to 8-0 ND.
Georgia isn't better on a single metric that the committee looks at than Michigan is, and only ties on one- wins vs P5 opponents.
October 30th, 2018 at 1:06 PM ^
Yes, I am not concerned about the committee's first vote, except to the extent that it shows how they feel about the SEC as it relates to both past and historical performance.
Alabama, No. 1, and unlikely to move a muscle in the rankings, will play LSU on Saturday and then Auburn and most likely Georgia to end the regular season in the league championship.
Clemson at No. 2, is also unlikely to move unless Alabama stumbles because its road ahead is practically clear of any trouble from any ACC teams from here to season's end.
The only significant movement will result from Notre Dame dropping a game, which, if it does, isn't necessarily good for Michigan, having beat us opening the season. A loss will open a real bloodbath of debate.
Any of the other contenders losing at this point knocks them out of the discussion. Michigan can't advance beyond the fourth playoff spot if none if the undefeated teams lose a game. And even then, its chances of finishing higher are questionable. And that's because the committee could still keep an SEC team in the playoffs and possibly two even if one or more of them finish with one loss.
I don't think the committee will keep Alabama out with a single loss. And every one loss team faces elimination as well from this point going forward. Notre Dame could still get in with a loss because it beat the Wolverines, and Michigan will only get in by winning out.
So, I think that we could see a situation where Georgia and Alabama both make it again along with Clemson and Notre Dame with each having one loss, knocking out Michigan in a one-loss scenario. But it would lead to a raging debate that might result in changing playoff formatting.
October 30th, 2018 at 2:05 PM ^
Quality wins are not created equal. I think the committee values Georgia's win over Florida far more than any of our wins. Our best wins right now are Sparty and Northwestern, and Florida is far more highly regarded. I think Michigan should still be ranked higher, but it could go either way tonight. Of course, our positioning vs. Georgia would only matter if we win out and they beat Bama in the SEC championship, so it doesn't really matter right now.
October 30th, 2018 at 2:38 PM ^
This is not true. UGA edges M in the most important metric the committee uses: Strength of Record.
UGA is 6th. M is 7th.
I think they do also use some advanced metrics and UGA is 3rd in FPI and M is 5th.
They could put UGA ahead of M, although I don't think they will. Those two teams are pretty close right now.
October 30th, 2018 at 12:03 PM ^
not too concerned with the opening poll; Michigan will be 5th or 6th... but after saturday, if they beat PSU and LSU loses (presumably), Michigan will jump into the top 4.
At the end of the day, the 'just win' mantra is true... If Michigan wins all their remaining games, and are crowned B1G champs, they would be very hard to leave out of the playoffs.
not only in terms of Football, but in terms of audience/media... iirc the Wisky/Michigan game was the game with the most viewers (to this point) of the season. I think having Harbaugh and Michigan in the CFB would be a boon to ratings...
October 30th, 2018 at 12:05 PM ^
#5 is my guess. Alabama, LSU, Clemson, ND, Michigan, Kentucky, Georgia, Oklahoma, Washington State, Ohio State is my guess at the Top 10.
But remember what tonight is: ESPN seizing an opportunity to get ratings on what would otherwise be a very sleepy Tuesday night.
As 2014 proved, with TCU moving from #3 to #6 at the end for no real reason at all, nothing really matters until the end.
October 30th, 2018 at 12:17 PM ^
Wazzu should be ahead of OSU. Their loss was far less embarrassing (by 3 to USC), and they have wins over Utah, Oregon, and @Stanford. By comparison, OSU was obliterated by 4-4 Purdue, and has the win by 1 at Penn State, and....what else? TCU is now 3-5 and just lost to Kansas. OSU's second best win right now is probably at home against Minnesota, and it's likely that Penn State is the only team they've beaten at this point that will make a bowl game. Hell, Purdue might have to beat Wisconsin just to get to 6-6. If the preseason rankings don't mean anything, I think Wazzu and maybe even UCF should be ahead of OSU.
I also don't see why Oklahoma would be ahead of us. They, like us, have not beaten a single currently ranked team, but their best win is @ Iowa State, which is 4-3, and second-best is the OT win against Army that was, at the time, embarrassing. We have 2-3 wins that are at least as good as the Iowa State win, and our loss was on the road at a better team.
I think it should go:
1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. ND
4. LSU
5. Georgia
6. Michigan
7. Wazzu
8. Oklahoma
9. UCF
10. OSU
October 30th, 2018 at 12:20 PM ^
Just remember, I believe it is some crazy like over half the teams that get listed in the initial CFP standings never actually make it there. Kinda like hanging a HUGE BULLSEYE on them that every other team shoots for to make their season.
Michigan starts out at 5 and I will be consistent.
Best case for us, Bama, ND, Clemson, and us all win out. The odds of that actually happening, not good. I listed the other 3 teams in order of who would possibly bump Michigan, if they are the only ones to lose.
Bama - Too much creed, been looking good all season, can point to a tough in-conference schedule (particularly if they lose the SEC Title game)
ND - I am risk averse here. Certainly any ND loss from here on out will not look good, but I have to feel they still have a powerful trump card in the debate by simply saying, "We beat them." Hard to causally dismiss this.
Clemson - Again, image and recent history (contrary to the committees statements) would sway in a debate. But any loss from here on out would not look good for them, period, Michigan's loss is almost the 'best' loss to have outside of anyone that could play Bama close.
Worst case, Clemson wins out, ND wins out, Oklahoma wins out including a drubbing of Texas in a rematch, Washington State wins out, and Georgia wins out edging Bama in the SEC title game. In this scenario, Clemson, ND, and Georgia all get the first 3 spots and Michigan is put into a bucket with Bama, Oklahoma, and Wassu for the final spot.
While I still believe Michigan gets in, I just think that there would be plenty of debate about it.
October 30th, 2018 at 12:24 PM ^
I dont know..everyone seems to think that LSU is a lock at # 4 but not me...their Loss to Florida looks worse and worse while our only loss was on the road by 7 first game to #3 ND..We are about to play our 4th ranked opponent with OSU our fifth..if SOS means ANYTHING I say we get the #4 spot today
October 30th, 2018 at 2:08 PM ^
Yeah, but LSU housed Georgia. Our best win is over Sparty. If LSU isn't #4, it's because they're #3.
October 30th, 2018 at 12:40 PM ^
I believe tonight's first college playoff committee ranking will signal how the committee feels historical weight should apply to current performance in judging the subjective ability of any of the leading contenders for the top four teams and those that immediately follow.
In that regard, the committee vote might reflect a bias toward LSU and Georgia as it relates to how they should be ranked in connection with the most likely major undefeated contenders, Alabama, Clemson and Notre Dame.
The fact is that LSU and Georgia's first and only loss came well after Michigan's opening game loss to the Irish, so regardless of record, one team has been on an extended winning streak and climbed the weekly rankings hurdle from pre-season to now, which always gives an inflated lift to any team regardless of actual performance or how its perceived by pundits.
I think Michigan should either start at five or four, but must win out to make the playoffs. Unless any of the undefeated teams stub their toe before season's end, Michigan will have little shot at climbing above the last playoff rung and facing the No. 1 team.
There is no almost no chance that Clemson loses a game. And only slight chance that Alabama does. So those two teams are most likely going to meet in the championship round again, with all the rest fighting for the opportunity to unseat them on New Year's Day, unless something drastic happens.
The only point is that the committee vote tonight only puts a fine point on where pundits think the SEC stands in regard to current performance, traditional performance and actual subjectivity of the quality of the top five teams. This weekend's game will go further in reshuffling the rankings but not the finishing pecking order of the mostly likely to win out and reach this season's Final Four.
October 30th, 2018 at 12:40 PM ^
I guess I should weigh in with my top 12 prediction since I blogged about their metrics and the current data.
1. Clemson (I give them this slot because they have one more quality win than Alabama, and their P5 opponents have a significantly better winning record, with other metrics being equal).
2. Alabama (above ND because while they have one less quality win, their point differential against P5 teams is just to much larger than ND's to ignore).
3. ND (Unbeaten with quality wins is hard for the committee to put below a team that has losses).
4. Michigan (This is a virtual toss up with LSU. LSU has one more quality win and P5 opponents with a slightly better winning record, .63 vs .69, but they have a much lower point differential (have come closer to losing to their P5 opponents) and their loss to 6-2 Florida by 8 is much worse than ours. My guess is that since ND is ranked ahead of both of us, and Florida below both, it is a convincing argument that Michigan should have lost to ND and LSU, not so, to Florida. Still, I could see the committee looking at those four different metrics, two for and two against, and deciding that one more quality win is the most important of the metrics in play, flipping these two).
5. LSU (see above)
After Michigan and LSU it gets dicey, because many of the teams are ahead on certain metrics and behind on others.
6. Kentucky (3 quality wins, P5 opponent record of .58, point differential of 1.65, and loss by 6 @5-3 TA&M)
7. Oklahoma (only 1 quality win, and a lower P5 opponent record of .47, but a decent point differential of 1.75, and their quality of loss is second only to ours, at 3 points to 6-2 Texas).
8. Georgia (5 P5 wins, 2 quality wins, P5 opponent win record of .58, Point differential of 1.73, but semi bad loss by 20 @ 7-1 LSU).
9. Washington State (3 quality wins (one less P5 win than Kentucky at only 4), P5 opponent record of .55, but point differential of only 1.23 and quality of loss of 3 @ 4-4 USC).
10. West Virginia (see below)
11. Penn State (Penn State is my dark horse to break in the top 10 but I think they land here. While they have one more loss than WVA and OSU, they have the same 1 quality win that OSU and WVA have, they have a better Opponent record than those two of .59 vs .47 and .42, they have a similar point differential at 1.69 vs 1.67 and 1.89 (WVA on top), and their two losses were by a combined 5 points, to better quality teams, than OSU and WVA's large losses. However WVA's one loss is away, not that bad vs a quality team, and they have the highest point differential of the three).
12. Thee Ohio State (see above)
October 30th, 2018 at 2:52 PM ^
I was scrolling down to see if anyone else thought Clemson would be number 1, because I agree with your bold prediction that Clemson will be number 1.
They are #1 in FPI Strength of Record, and Bama is number 4. Bama has crushed all comers but they're SoS is a joke and I think the committee is going to use this opportunity to speak to that. And if they beat LSU, they'll jump to #1 anyway so why not put them at #2, and say you gotta play somebody when they ask why number 2.
I also think because of SoR, Kentucky is going to be a lot higher than people think, but I'm not sure they'll be all the way at #6. Here's my 10 (very similar to yours):
1. Clemson (#1 SoR)
2. Alabama (#4 SoR but can't ignore the dominance)
3. ND (#2 SoR, undefeated, easy choice)
4. LSU (#3 SoR, too many quality wins to be behind M)
5. Michigan (5 wins over teams with winning record, best quality loss)
6. Georgia (#6 SoR, lot of high margin wins)
7. Kentucky (#5 SoR, they've been close but they have a lot of good wins)
8. Oklahoma (one close "quality" loss, pretty dominant otherwise, Army is actually pretty good)
9. Wazzou (#9 SoR, some decent wins lately)
10. OSU (#8 SoR but I feel the committee will ding them for the way they lost to Purdue)
October 30th, 2018 at 12:41 PM ^
I'm guessing 5, but wouldn't be surprised at 6.
October 30th, 2018 at 12:42 PM ^
Probably 6.
October 30th, 2018 at 12:49 PM ^
Objectively, in the SOS debate, Michigan is sitting in a very favorable light. And, in a "non-eye-test" world Alabama's feet should be held to the fire vs LSU...should be considered a must win for them to get in. Alabama beating LSU knocks LSU out but Georgia remains-and there-in lies the problem for Michigan and others...should Georgia win in a well-contested game. If I were on the committee, even as a Michigan fan, I would have a most difficult time convincing myself that both Georgia and Alabama should not get in.
This absolutely needs to go to, at least, an 8 team deal. Sure, there will be a lot of "sorting out" yet. Nevertheless...
October 30th, 2018 at 2:54 PM ^
Very easy to convince yourself: Conference championship games should be de-facto "play in" games for a playoff birth. Has there ever been a team to make the playoffs after losing the conference championship? Who wants to see a rematch of a championship game anyway? If Bama loses to UGA for the SEC title but then beats UGA in the playoff championship that completely invalides the whole concept of a "national champion". I personally believe the committee will practically go out of their way to put another team in before they ever put in a conference championship loser. It's in my mind way different from choosing a 1-loss non-championship-game Bama over a 2-loss Big Ten champion (in that there at least is a plausible argument to make for Bama in that case)
October 30th, 2018 at 1:02 PM ^
It's weird - LSU to the voters is this elite program, while to the computers they are...fine. I wonder how that plays out.
October 30th, 2018 at 1:27 PM ^
Looking ahead, it's important for us that Ohio State actually remains as highly ranked as possible, so that when we beat the Buckeyes, that victory gives us the greatest leverage possible. It would be especially important for them to be as highly ranked as the lowest ranked SEC team in the Top 10 heading into the final weekend of the season.
Clearly, the one obstacle that nobody thought would be one this year is Notre Dame. But having them undefeated at this point only makes any loss they sustain an issue depending on whether Michigan wins out. A loss by Notre Dame to Northwestern might change the complexion of things, a later loss might not. And the committee will have to consider whether ND's lack of a championship game, alters how it views their overall record compared to the schools who will go through them to make the Final Four.
I think a loss to Northwestern would disqualify from the playoffs for that reason even if they and Michigan only have one loss. Because Michigan beat the Wildcats in Evanston.
October 30th, 2018 at 1:35 PM ^
agreed.
October 30th, 2018 at 1:40 PM ^
I want MSU to beat OSU. Assuming we beat PSU, it takes the pressure off in terms of winning the division, which is a drought that we badly need in the rearview mirror. Then the OSU game will be all about the rivalry and a shot at the playoff.
I think ND will lose one, just not sure which one. Could be this weekend.
(Side note: if all S&P projections come true, Northwestern will finish 6-6 and *still* win the West.)
If Michigan wins out, I'm not concerned about being left out. I don't see Alabama or Clemson losing, so they'll be 1-2. ND and Michigan would be 3-4.
October 30th, 2018 at 2:32 PM ^
ND basically has to go undefeated, because future opponents that seemed like marquee games in which ND could afford to trip up (FSU and USC) have both collapsed this year. Their trickiest game might actually be Syracuse in Yankee Stadium the weekend before Thanksgiving.
October 30th, 2018 at 1:06 PM ^
My predictions for first ranking
Bama
Clemson
ND
LSU
Michigan
Oklahoma
Georgia
Washington State
OSU
Kentucky
October 30th, 2018 at 1:22 PM ^
The first rankings don't mean a damn thing because two of the top-four play on Saturday. LSU will be removed from the top-four after they lose on Saturday.
October 30th, 2018 at 1:40 PM ^
I agree. A nice run for them, but it's over.
October 30th, 2018 at 1:25 PM ^
I think we should be 5, but think the committee will put us at 6 and Oklahoma at 5. There are a lot of people who have a hard on for lots of scoring and no defense.
October 30th, 2018 at 1:32 PM ^
These shows are fun for discussion, but holy hell are they just an exercise in futility and lying to your face. Wasn't it TCU in 2014 who went from #4 in the country one week, had a bye week, and then dropped like 6 spots after? There's almost no correlation week-to-week for these rankings and the lack of transparency in the ranking process makes the poll feel like a bunch of high school freshmen arguing over who the best college football teams are
October 30th, 2018 at 1:33 PM ^
Honestly, #6 behind Georgia. But, that can change quickly, in our favor
October 30th, 2018 at 1:38 PM ^
The Bad News: I think Michigan is 6th behind Bama, Clemson, ND, LSU, and Georgia... but worried that we might be 7th behind (uggh) OSU. While our loss is much better, OSU has the same record and a win over a current top 25 opponent, we don't.
The Good News: We jump into the top 5 with a win over PSU this weekend (and an LSU loss). Maybe top 4 if Kentucky beats Georgia (not holding my breath).
October 30th, 2018 at 2:34 PM ^
The committee loves them some TV matchups. Don’t be shocked if NW is #25 in the rankings. Putting 2 ranked teams against each other in Evanston this weekend.
October 30th, 2018 at 2:47 PM ^
A. OSU has one more four-touchdown loss to a four loss team than we do.
B. Our position relative to future opponents is irrelevant. What matters is our position relative to schools like Oklahoma, Wazzu, Georgia, and LSU.
That said, OSU should be like 10th. Their second best win is Minnesota.
October 30th, 2018 at 4:12 PM ^
If Michigan is 6th, that's not bad news. (I expect 5th).
Just win...and 6th will suddenly become top 4. Don't sweat it.
Besides, being outside the top 4 is a better motivator than being inside the top 4. Heck, stay out of the top 4 until the very last rankings.
October 30th, 2018 at 2:14 PM ^
This would be my guess at the first top 10:
- Alabama
- Clemson
- ND
- LSU
- Michigan
- Oklahoma
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- UCF
- West Virginia
Unless something crazy happens, Alabama - Clemson - ND all run the table and keep their spots. If so, then LSU drops out and it is a battle between Michigan/OSU and Oklahoma for the final spot. Oklahoma is likely going to run the table and beat Texas in the rematch. Michigan is really the only B1G team with a chance to overcome Oklahoma as OSU's blowout loss to Purdue is a too big of a negative. The spoilers are LSU and Georgia, because a 1-loss Alabama is most definitely taking the #4 spot (that scenario is probably #1 Clemson, #2 LSU, #3 ND, #4 Alabama)..
We just need to take care of business one game at a time. Go Blue !!!