Michigan Hockey Weekend Rooting Guide - 3/7
The Wolverines didn't achieve the results they wanted this past weekend in Minnesota, taking only two of a possible six points from the Gophers. Despite not being able to catch Minnesota for 3rd in the Big Ten standings, Michigan did improve their positioning in the Pairwise, moving up one slot to 13th. It doesn't seem like a huge move, but with the Atlantic Hockey and CCHA Champions getting 'auto-bids' for the NCAA Tournament, it only leaves 14 spots available to the rest of the field, so getting to 13th provides a bit of cushion. Now, they've gotta hold it.
Michigan's move up the Pairwise was also aided by a number of results we were hoping for in last week's rooting guide falling the way of the Maize & Blue. North Dakota took a pair of games from Western Michigan, who dropped from 12 to 15 and Denver who won 2 games up in St. Cloud against the Huskies, who dropped from 11 to 14 in the Pairwise. Michigan is breathing down the neck of Massachusetts as they are separated by .0006 in the RPI. It's all very tight as we hit the conference tournament portion of the season.
[AFTER THE JUMP: The master Pairwise table and the rooting guide]
Pairwise Ratings - 3/7/24
Rk |
Team |
Conference |
PCWs |
RPI |
Rk |
QWB-† |
W-L-T |
PwWin % |
Wgtd Win % - ‡ |
1 |
Boston College |
Hockey East |
63 |
.6252 |
1 |
.0101 |
27-5-1 (2-0) |
.8131 |
.8116 |
2 |
Boston University |
Hockey East |
62 |
.6048 |
2 |
.0086 |
22-8-2 (2-3) |
.7292 |
.7398 |
3 |
North Dakota |
NCHC |
60 |
.6042 |
3 |
.0097 |
24-8-2 (3-4) |
.7451 |
.7321 |
4 |
Denver |
NCHC |
60 |
.5931 |
4 |
.0074 |
23-8-3 (3-1) |
.7010 |
.7022 |
5 |
Michigan State |
Big Ten |
59 |
.5873 |
5 |
.0070 |
22-9-3 (0-1) |
.7010 |
.7093 |
6 |
Wisconsin |
Big Ten |
58 |
.5845 |
6 |
.0053 |
25-9-2 (3-2) |
.7130 |
.7171 |
7 |
Minnesota |
Big Ten |
57 |
.5763 |
7 |
.0081 |
20-9-5 (4-1) |
.6324 |
.6275 |
8 |
Quinnipiac |
ECAC |
56 |
.5737 |
8 |
.0023 |
24-8-2 (1-5) |
.7745 |
.7856 |
9 |
Maine |
Hockey East |
55 |
.5709 |
9 |
.0052 |
20-10-2 (1-1) |
.6562 |
.6704 |
10 |
Providence |
Hockey East |
53 |
.5575 |
11 |
.0056 |
18-11-3 (3-2) |
.5990 |
.6086 |
11 |
Colorado College |
NCHC |
52 |
.5582 |
10 |
.0075 |
19-10-3 (5-2) |
.6094 |
.5983 |
12 |
Massachusetts |
Hockey East |
52 |
.5556 |
12 |
.0031 |
19-10-3 (4-3) |
.6302 |
.6187 |
13 |
MICHIGAN |
Big Ten |
51 |
.5550 |
13 |
.0062 |
18-13-3 (1-1) |
.5735 |
.5660 |
14 |
St. Cloud State |
NCHC |
50 |
.5502 |
15 |
.0047 |
15-12-5 (1-4) |
.5781 |
.5644 |
15 |
Western Michigan |
NCHC |
49 |
.5530 |
14 |
.0063 |
18-13-1 (1-5) |
.6198 |
.6211 |
16 |
Cornell |
ECAC |
48 |
.5442 |
16 |
.0032 |
17-6-6 (2-2) |
.6897 |
.6879 |
17 |
Omaha |
NCHC |
48 |
.5441 |
17 |
.0053 |
18-10-4 (7-1) |
.5625 |
.5537 |
18 |
New Hampshire |
Hockey East |
46 |
.5379 |
18 |
.0046 |
17-14-1 (3-0) |
.5156 |
.5102 |
19 |
Arizona State |
Independent |
46 |
.5340 |
19 |
.0027 |
23-7-6 (6-2) |
.6852 |
.6417 |
20 |
Northeastern |
Hockey East |
44 |
.5331 |
20 |
.0069 |
16-15-2 (4-3) |
.5051 |
.5020 |
21 |
Notre Dame |
Big Ten |
43 |
.5222 |
21 |
.0050 |
15-17-2 (2-1) |
.4608 |
.4328 |
22 |
Penn State |
Big Ten |
42 |
.5188 |
22 |
.0030 |
15-16-3 (0-1) |
.4951 |
.4830 |
23 |
RIT |
Atlantic Hockey |
41 |
.5188 |
23 |
.0002 |
22-10-2 (3-3) |
.6765 |
.6680 |
24 |
Connecticut |
Hockey East |
40 |
.5106 |
24 |
.0030 |
13-18-2 (1-1) |
.4242 |
.4302 |
25 |
Alaska |
Independent |
39 |
.5095 |
25 |
.0007 |
15-14-3 (0-3) |
.5469 |
.5720 |
26 |
Holy Cross |
Atlantic Hockey |
38 |
.5094 |
26 |
.0000 |
18-12-4 (0-4) |
.6275 |
.6240 |
27 |
Vermont |
Hockey East |
37 |
.5050 |
27 |
.0030 |
13-16-3 (2-1) |
.4427 |
.4419 |
28 |
Minnesota-Duluth |
NCHC |
36 |
.5048 |
28 |
.0028 |
10-18-5 (3-4) |
.3889 |
.3854 |
29 |
Dartmouth |
ECAC |
35 |
.5040 |
29 |
.0012 |
11-9-9 (1-1) |
.5345 |
.5400 |
30 |
Colgate |
ECAC |
33 |
.5022 |
30 |
.0018 |
16-14-4 (2-4) |
.5490 |
.5502 |
31 |
Merrimack |
Hockey East |
33 |
.5015 |
31 |
.0017 |
13-19-1 (1-2) |
.4192 |
.4186 |
32 |
American Int'l |
Atlantic Hockey |
32 |
.4973 |
32 |
.0003 |
16-14-4 (1-2) |
.5392 |
.5533 |
33 |
Bemidji State |
CCHA |
31 |
.4965 |
33 |
.0009 |
17-15-2 (3-4) |
.5392 |
.5353 |
34 |
Ohio State |
Big Ten |
30 |
.4964 |
34 |
.0043 |
12-18-4 (1-0) |
.4020 |
.3927 |
35 |
Clarkson |
ECAC |
29 |
.4942 |
35 |
.0016 |
18-15-1 (6-3) |
.5147 |
.5152 |
36 |
Minnesota State |
CCHA |
28 |
.4925 |
36 |
.0014 |
16-14-4 (3-2) |
.5196 |
.5256 |
37 |
Mass.-Lowell |
Hockey East |
27 |
.4864 |
37 |
.0010 |
8-21-4 (1-6) |
.3535 |
.3602 |
38 |
Union |
ECAC |
26 |
.4856 |
38 |
.0004 |
15-16-3 (1-2) |
.4951 |
.4980 |
39 |
Michigan Tech |
CCHA |
25 |
.4855 |
39 |
.0006 |
15-14-6 (3-2) |
.5048 |
.4961 |
40 |
Alaska-Anchorage |
Independent |
24 |
.4836 |
40 |
.0024 |
14-16-2 (2-1) |
.4583 |
.4761 |
41 |
Augustana |
CCHA |
24 |
.4805 |
41 |
.0018 |
12-18-4 (3-4) |
.4216 |
.4435 |
42 |
Air Force |
Atlantic Hockey |
22 |
.4799 |
42 |
.0009 |
18-17-1 (4-1) |
.4861 |
.4858 |
43 |
St. Thomas |
CCHA |
21 |
.4760 |
43 |
.0007 |
14-18-2 (1-4) |
.4706 |
.4786 |
44 |
Bentley |
Atlantic Hockey |
20 |
.4748 |
44 |
.0004 |
16-17-2 (2-3) |
.4952 |
.4980 |
45 |
Niagara |
Atlantic Hockey |
19 |
.4736 |
45 |
.0000 |
16-16-3 (3-1) |
.4810 |
.4890 |
46 |
Miami |
NCHC |
18 |
.4671 |
46 |
.0018 |
7-22-3 (1-4) |
.2969 |
.2902 |
47 |
Northern Michigan |
CCHA |
16 |
.4661 |
48 |
.0000 |
12-14-6 (1-1) |
.4687 |
.4658 |
48 |
Lake Superior |
CCHA |
15 |
.4618 |
49 |
.0000 |
15-18-1 (3-2) |
.4461 |
.4467 |
49 |
Yale |
ECAC |
15 |
.4615 |
50 |
.0003 |
10-17-2 (1-2) |
.3908 |
.3839 |
50 |
Sacred Heart |
Atlantic Hockey |
14 |
.4662 |
47 |
.0000 |
14-17-3 (2-2) |
.4559 |
.4524 |
51 |
St. Lawrence |
ECAC |
13 |
.4581 |
51 |
.0011 |
10-18-6 (1-2) |
.3922 |
.3879 |
52 |
Harvard |
ECAC |
12 |
.4580 |
52 |
.0006 |
6-17-6 (1-3) |
.3333 |
.3278 |
53 |
Long Island |
Independent |
12 |
.4558 |
53 |
.0001 |
15-19-1 (2-2) |
.4429 |
.4677 |
54 |
Princeton |
ECAC |
11 |
.4520 |
54 |
.0002 |
10-15-4 (5-0) |
.3563 |
.3638 |
55 |
Rensselaer |
ECAC |
9 |
.4473 |
55 |
.0000 |
9-21-4 (1-0) |
.3137 |
.3243 |
56 |
Bowling Green |
CCHA |
8 |
.4465 |
56 |
.0000 |
13-20-1 (1-2) |
.4069 |
.4059 |
57 |
Canisius |
Atlantic Hockey |
7 |
.4449 |
57 |
.0000 |
12-19-4 (2-1) |
.3905 |
.3770 |
58 |
Army |
Atlantic Hockey |
7 |
.4441 |
58 |
.0002 |
10-23-2 (0-3) |
.3429 |
.3506 |
59 |
Robert Morris |
Atlantic Hockey |
5 |
.4348 |
59 |
.0000 |
11-23-3 (0-1) |
.3468 |
.3506 |
60 |
Brown |
ECAC |
4 |
.4342 |
60 |
.0000 |
8-18-3 (2-3) |
.3391 |
.3239 |
61 |
Mercyhurst |
Atlantic Hockey |
3 |
.4317 |
61 |
.0000 |
9-22-4 (2-2) |
.3143 |
.3263 |
62 |
Lindenwood |
Independent |
2 |
.4237 |
62 |
.0010 |
6-18-4 (2-1) |
.2738 |
.2893 |
63 |
Ferris State |
CCHA |
1 |
.4197 |
63 |
.0002 |
10-22-2 (6-2) |
.2843 |
.2767 |
64 |
Stonehill |
Independent |
0 |
.3410 |
64 |
.0001 |
1-31-0 (0-2) |
.0521 |
.0550 |
Michigan now sits at 13th in the Pairwise, but as you can tell from the RPI column, it's all extremely tight. Spots 10-15 all have RPIs beginning with .55__, so expect to see some wild swings again this weekend. Michigan's got work to do in the Big Ten Tournament to hold up their end of the bargain, but it's not the worst spot to be in with only a few weeks left in the season.
B1G Hockey Final Regular Season Standings
|
Team |
GP |
PTS |
W |
L |
T |
OW |
OL |
SW |
GF |
GA |
1 |
Michigan State |
24 |
52 |
16 |
6 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
92 |
69 |
2 |
Wisconsin |
24 |
50 |
16 |
7 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
81 |
57 |
3 |
Minnesota |
24 |
41 |
13 |
7 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
80 |
65 |
4 |
MICHIGAN |
24 |
36 |
11 |
11 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
85 |
77 |
5 |
Notre Dame |
24 |
31 |
9 |
13 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
66 |
62 |
6 |
Penn State |
24 |
27 |
7 |
14 |
3 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
62 |
92 |
7 |
Ohio State |
24 |
15 |
4 |
18 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
50 |
94 |
The Big Ten Conference finished the regular season in pretty anti-climactic fashion on Saturday, as everything regarding the final standings was settled the night before. Michigan State captured their first Big Ten Regular Season Championship since the Big Ten was established in 2013-14 season. The Big Ten Tournament kicks off this weekend with three series and Michigan State getting the bye to the next round. All series are best-of-three, with all games being played in the home arena of the higher seeds.
Wisconsin, who finished 2nd in the Conference, will host 7th place Ohio State. Minnesota, who finished 3rd, will host 6th place Penn State, and the 4th-place Wolverines will host 5th-place Notre Dame. Michigan went 3-1 against Notre Dame this season. The Wolverines split their first series in South Bend on December 1st and 2nd, getting blown out 6-1 in the first game before rebounding on Saturday with a gutsy 2-1 victory before the break. The two teams renewed their rivalry at Yost on February 23rd and 24th with Michigan winning both games, 4-0 on the Friday and 2-1 in the series finale on Saturday, which clinched 4th place in the standings for Michigan.
This Weekend's Rooting Guide - Games of Significance
Note: (PW#) = Current Pairwise Ranking. All times listed are Eastern Time Zone.
Big Ten Games (Conference Tournament - Quarterfinals)
Friday - Penn State (PW #22) at Minnesota (PW #7) - 7:00 pm - FS2
Saturday - Penn State (PW #22) at Minnesota (PW #7) - 4:30 pm - FS2
Sunday - Penn State (PW #22) at Minnesota (PW #7) - 7:00 pm - FS2 (if necessary)
Minnesota took 3 out of 4 games against Penn State this season, with the Gophers outscoring the Lions 13-7 and shutting them out in both games in Minnesota in February. A series win by Penn State would be fantastic for Michigan as they would improve their seeding in the next round of the Big Ten Conference Tournament. Of course, this is all predicated on Michigan taking care of their business in an efficient manner this weekend against Notre Dame. Even if Penn State can win one game, that will help the Wolverines as 'common opponents' records are a factor in the Pairwise calculations. So, let's go Nittanys this weekend.
Friday - Ohio State (PW #34) at Wisconsin (PW #6) - 8:00 pm - B1G+
Saturday - Ohio State (PW #34) at Wisconsin (PW #6) - 7:00 pm - B1G+
Sunday - Ohio State (PW #34) at Wisconsin (PW #6) - 6:00 pm - B1G+ (if necessary)
Surprisingly, Ohio State managed to split the season series with the Badgers, as both teams won their home games. The Badgers come into the series after splitting last weekend with Michigan State at home and finishing behind the Spartans by two points in the standings, a bit of a bitter pill for Wisconsin. Ohio State won both of their games against Wisconsin in mid-February, so that feeling of knowing they can pull the upset is still fresh in everyone's minds. This weekend will be one of those rare times when Michigan fans will be cheering for OSU. Like the other series, if OSU can win the series it will improve Michigan's seed in the Big Ten Tournament and even if OSU can take just one game, it will help in Pairwise.
Hockey East Games (Final Regular Season Games)
Thursday - Boston University (PW #2) at Providence PW (#10) - 7:00 pm - ESPN+
This is the 3rd and final regular season meeting between these two teams, with Providence winning the first game 3-2 in OT at home and Boston U. winning the next night at home 5-2. The Terriers come into the final weekend of the regular season firmly in 2nd place in Hockey East and on a three game winning streak. Providence is currently tied with Massachusetts for 4th place and have lost their most recent game to Merrimack. This is a game where Michigan fans will be cheering for Macklin Celebrini and the rest of the Boston University Terriers to pull out a win, knocking Providence down a few pegs in Pairwise.
Friday - Massachusetts (PW #12) at Maine (PW #9) - 8:00 pm - ESPN+
Saturday - Massachusetts (PW #12) at Maine (PW #9) - 7:00 pm - ESPN+
This is a huge 2-game series to close out the regular season for both teams in terms of Hockey East standings and the Pairwise. The UMass Minutemen are 2 points behind the Black Bears and more importantly, occupy the position ahead of Michigan in the Pairwise. In their only previous game this year, Maine defeated the Minutemen 1-0 at UMass in early February. After going 10-1-1 in December and January, Maine is 4-6 in February and March, cooling off down the stretch but still comfortably in the NCAA Tournament picture. UMass has won 3 of their last 4, with the last three games they've played all went to overtime. The hope for Michigan and its fans this weekend is that the Bears can shred the Minutemen in both games, allowing Michigan to climb more comfortably off the bubble assuming a strong weekend against ND.
NCHC Games (Final Regular Season Games)
Friday - St. Cloud (PW #14) at Minnesota-Duluth (PW #28) - 8:00 pm - NCHC.TV
Saturday - St. Cloud (PW #14) at Minnesota-Duluth (PW #28) - 7:00 pm - NCHC.TV
On the final weekend of the regular season for the NCHC, St. Cloud finds themselves 2 points behind Denver for 2nd place in the conference and also sitting on the bubble in Pairwise. The M-D Bulldogs on the other hand are locked in 7th place and have no chance to get into the NCAA Tournament unless they win the NCHC Conference Tournament which starts next week, a far fall from where the Bulldogs once were as a program. On paper this looks like the Huskies have everything in their favor, but don't discount the in-state rivalry between these two teams. Not to mention the added benefit for Duluth to start getting hot before the NCHC Tournament. This will be the 3rd and 4th meetings of the season between these clubs with St. Cloud winning both previous games by 2-1 and 6-5 scores just before Thanksgiving. Michigan will be cheering for one-time rival Duluth to keep St. Cloud from breathing down Michigan's neck.
Friday - Denver (PW #4) at Colorado College (PW #11) - 10:00 pm - CBS Sports Network
Saturday - Colorado College (PW #11) at Denver (PW #4) - 9:30 pm - NCHC.TV
This looks to be the marquee matchup of the weekend in the NCHC and can also have major implications on the Pairwise, especially with Colorado College being a mere .0032 points ahead of Michigan in RPI. Denver can't catch North Dakota for 1st in the standings, but they need to win to stay ahead of St. Cloud State and Colorado College who are 2 and 4 points behind them, respectively. Denver also wants to hold on to the 4th position in the Pairwise and possibly move up, to consolidate the grip on a #1 seed. This is the 3rd and 4th meeting of the season between these two in-state combatants, with Denver winning the first two games 6-1 at home on the 3rd of November and again winning 5-1 at CC the next night. The Wolverines and their fans will be hoping for a Denver sweep this weekend in hopes of leapfrogging both Massachusetts and CC in the Pairwise.
Friday - Miami (PW #46) at Western Michigan (PW #15) - 7:00 pm - NCHC.TV
Saturday - Miami (PW #46) at Western Michigan (PW #15) - 6:00 pm - NCHC.TV
This is a huge weekend for the Broncos who are trying to get themselves back into the Pairwise conversation after sliding recently. They have lost three in a row, during which time their high-powered offense has been shut out twice, and have only won once in their past five. That win wasn't convincing either, an overtime victory at St. Cloud State. Miami is last in the NCHC and have zero chance of beating North Dakota, who are 42 points ahead of them in the standings(!), next week when the NCHC Conference Tournament starts. But, the one thing Miami has going for them in this series is their one and only conference win this season came at the expense of Western Michigan, when they defeated the Broncos 4-3 in mid-January. If the RedHawks were to steal another win this weekend, or even take the Broncos to overtime, the odds of Western Michigan getting an 'at-large' bid would more than likely be out the window. Michigan fans should cheer for that.
Might actually watch the Boston University game tonight... and possibly WBB since Michigan is playing in the BTT tonight (although there is nothing about it on the board or frontpage thus far... shame).
At #14 St. Cloud St is already breathing down our necks. May Duluth keep them back there.
Thursday night goes in our favor: Providence falls to BU.
... which knocks Providence down to #13 and nudges Michigan up to #12 in the Pairwise. Time for Michigan to take care of business against ND.
3 goals in 3rd for come from behind win. Thanks, BU.
It was a good game and BU did it with a short roster. Thanks Hutson, Celebrini, and company. Hopefully, Northeastern can repeat BU's feat on Saturday and down those Friars.
Just win, baby.
Outstanding feature, will be channel surfing between Michigan / Notre Dame and hoping the Wolverines get some bounces
Thank you!
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