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You are exactly right.

 

I…

You are exactly right.

 

I am convinced that our system (NFL complexity) is too complex for college kids.

 

We have had some talented QBs.  But none of them have approached the competence of 1st year OSU starters.  The difference is the system.

The program is headed in the…

The program is headed in the right direction.  This year was very encouraging.  Many players are returning and McCarthy will be much better next year.

Some concerns threaten to derail things in 2024 and beyond:

1)  With the rise of NIL, our recruiting is falling off a cliff.  We are doing something wrong.

2)  Contrary to what another poster said in this thread, our offense is too complex.  It is incredibly difficult for a QB to master and thrive in this system.  Harbaugh has never had a great QB in his Michigan tenure and this is the reason.  Too many formations.  Too many reads.  Too much thinking.  Too much complexity for complexity's sake.  Nearly every time we call a timeout because of the play clock.....it is because we are getting tripped up by our own complexity that is supposed to confuse the other team, not us.

3)  Some bad play calls, especially in the red zone.

4)  Our defense, as always, is very good.  But our recruiting issues leave me wondering who the next big edge rusher will be.  We really need one.  I don't see an obvious star at DE.

 

 

 

Let's pray that it is not…

Let's pray that it is not Gattis.

 

We saw his offense 2 years ago. Not great  Well below average, actually.

 

This past year was primarily Harbaugh's offense.  Unless you think that Gattis put "pin and pull" into "speed in space."  You have to be blind not to see Harbaugh's fingerprints all over this offense.  There are so many Harbaugh prints on this offense that I don't think Gattis should have even been a Broyles finalist.

 

Gattis only has a couple of years of "just OK" OC experience.  What makes all the people on this board think he is qualified to be a Michigan HC is beyond me.

 

The Michigan HC job is just too damn important to do an experiment like this.

 

Gattis is fully qualified to be a HC at......Western Michigan.

I agree.  The other thing is…

I agree.  The other thing is that Devin made a lot of mistakes as a QB.  He had a really bad habit of throwing up 50-50 balls.  I used to cringe when he did this.

I totally understand that Devin had a tough road from a coaching standpoint.  But his play style was very aggressive while Cade is very conservative.  Seriously, how can Cade ever be a stud in Devin's mind? 

Imagine Cade commenting on Devin, lol.  These are just two very different cats with opposing philosophies.

Also--someone brought up the Milton vs Cade era where Devin was on Milton's side to the point of actually training with him.  Huge bias.

I am delighted with the win…

I am delighted with the win.  But if we played OSU 10 times in the next 10 weeks, we might win 1 or 2 of those games.  OSU is still on another level. 

 

They are far more likely to have a solution to our run game than we are to have a solution for their pass game.

 

I love this board.  I am…

I love this board.  I am reminded again why I almost never come on here.

 

One big loss (MSU) and the team is deemed garbage and the coach an incompetent.

 

One big win and we are better than OSU on every level and Harbaugh is a genius.

 

Harbaugh does a good job teaching fundamentals.  He is not afraid to reinvent the team.  He did take a pay cut staying with Michigan as he could have left for the NFL after last year.  He loves Michigan and I think he is a high character guy.  I am sure that he is an incredibly hard worker.

 

On the other hand, he has failed to develop a great QB for 7 years running.  Something terrible happened with the 2017 recruiting class and most of those guys just left.  So we either had a problem with who we recruited or how we retained those guys.  When Michigan has huge matchup advantages, we rarely exploit them.  So we play at the level of our opponents.  We very often lose the "halftime adjustment" battle.  We run archaic schemes on offense that fell out of favor long ago.

 

I am not a fan of this offense.  It is too one dimensional.  It works because Hassan Haskins is a warrior and the Oline is gelling right now.  We are also getting a level of blocking from TEs and WRs that I have never seen before.  Still, I am shocked that they ran this well against OSU.

 

I am delighted with the win.  But if we played OSU 10 times in the next 10 weeks, we might win 1 or 2 of those games.  OSU is still on another level.  They are far more likely to have a solution to our run game than we are to have a solution for their pass game.

My prediction....Michigan…

My prediction....Michigan finishes 8 and 4 (best case) or drops one of the wins below to finish 7 and 5.  Odds are that we will lose our bowl game because we always draw strong opponents.  So we finish 8 and 5 or 7 and 6.  

 

The defense may actually look good early as no one has film on the new defensive coordinators since they have never actually coordinated.  But we will fade later in the season when people figure us out. 

 

The offense will struggle with a weaker O Line and a less capable O Line coach.  The QB room and RBs will actually look decent but they won't be able to overcome the lackluster O Line play:

Game by game

Sept. 4 vs. Western Michigan--W
Sept. 11 vs. Washington--W (yup)
Sept. 18 vs. Northern Illinois--W
Sept. 25 vs. Rutgers--W
Oct. 2 at Wisconsin--L (blowout loss)
Oct. 9 at Nebraska--W
Oct. 23 vs. Northwestern--W
Oct. 30 at Michigan State--W
Nov. 6 vs. Indiana--L
Nov. 13 at Penn State--L
Nov. 20 at Maryland--W
Nov. 27 vs. Ohio State--L (blowout loss)

Spot on.

We took a lot of…

Spot on.

We took a lot of coverage sacks this year.

Milton especially did not throw the ball away when he should have.

Our wide receivers are just OK at getting open.  Then our QBs can't find them.

The OLine play has gotten much, much better with Warriner.

The Ruddock, Speight, OKorn, Peters era did suffer from legitimately bad offensive lines.

True.  But we will never…

True.  But we will never know, will we?  

Michigan offered Harbaugh the base salary of an average coach in the B1G.  I think that they were hoping that he would leave for the NFL.  The contract itself is a vote of no confidence.

And you know what?  Michigan is right.  They went 2-4 this year against conference foes with less talent than them.  In my book, that makes Harbaugh BELOW average this year.

I still think something is wrong with his health or his home life.  He was just a different guy pre-2017.

 

He should have made the hard…

He should have made the hard decision. 

The hard decision is usually the correct one.

I can dream of an alternate reality with Matt Campbell in it.....

You are satisfied with our…

You are satisfied with our QB development?  Seriously?

Ohio State freshman QBs look better than Milton did this year as a junior.

 

Too late.  And my offspring…

Too late.  And my offspring are better than you or anyone in your family.   

Of that, I am certain.  Certain.

It may well be.

I have…

It may well be.

I have heard Patriots players and Bama players who are afraid of their head coaches.  Hugging is about out of the question.

With familiarity comes contempt.

This year JH was hugging guys who made ridiculous mental errors. 

Not good.  You are literally accepting those mistakes when you give hugs for it.

 

When your team is down, you…

When your team is down, you should be talking MORE.  Making adjustments.  Firing the players and coaches up.

Harbaugh seems to speak LESS as his teams start to lose.

When we are winning, he is energized and talking more.

Camera does not lie.

I assume you are referring…

I assume you are referring to the game at OSU.

To me, that was the last time that we saw the fire.

He got a15 yard penalty for throwing his clip board and really hurt the team.  That penalty yardage was more penalty yardage than OSU had in the entire game, btw.  

Something broke that day.  The program has not been the same since.  I feel like that PLAY was the tipping point.

Literally, most of what came before that play was good and much of what has happened since has been bad.

 

I was horrified a couple of…

I was horrified a couple of years ago with the whole "Revenge Tour" thing. 

To me it shows a lack of perspective and discipline.  A little success immediately going to the team's head.

We have no reason to be arrogant.  Hell, we are probably best known for losing to App State at home.

 

I agree.

 

I sometimes…

I agree.

 

I sometimes wonder if there is an overriding culture at UM that hampers the team.

 

Harbaugh had fire when he got here.  That fire is gone.  I don't know what happened.  Did that culture drown it?

 

It could be that he has medical conditions.  It could be his family life.  It could be that he can't relate to today's players.  It could be that losing big games is just a part of the culture now.  It could be something else.  It could be player development.  It could be a combination of things.

 

All I know is that he is now struggling against teams that have a lot less talent than his.

 

Matt Campbell has his guys playing way above their talent level.

 

I vote Campbell.  I am grateful for what Jim did in his first few years, but something is clearly wrong.  Much as I like Jim, I love UM football more.

 

Time to move on.

Calling for banning and…

Calling for banning and censorship marks you as a petty despot.

 

Glad that you never amounted to anything and don't wield any power in the real world.

Thank you, Harlans.  You get…

Thank you, Harlans.  You get it.  Glenville is a short drive away and he ignores it?  Wow.

Metro Areas with more HS…

Metro Areas with more HS football talent than the whole state of Ohio?

 

That is a big NO.

You really have no idea what…

You really have no idea what you are talking about.  About anything.

Thank you for putting…

Thank you for putting numbers to what I am talking about, MgoWood.

 

Of course, the geniuses on this board are not easily swayed by facts or data.

 

We did land the 1st and 2nd best players in CT this year, so there is that.

You get it.  As the OP, I…

You get it.  As the OP, I can scarcely believe all the dumb comments.  As if Michigan (a midwestern football team) should just totally ignore the most fertile recruiting ground in the midwest (which is clearly Ohio).

 

Interestingly, Michigan is getting better as a HS football state.  But its top recruits are going elsewhere....

Ironic that your response is…

Ironic that your response is to bitch and whine.

You are right, results on…

You are right, results on the field have a huge impact.

 

But the Freepress article has coaches saying that Michigan ain't even trying.

Yes, that is what I said.

 …

Yes, that is what I said.

 

Learn to read, perhaps?

They cannot absorb all of…

They cannot absorb all of them, believe it or not.

 

Again, very odd how Ohio supplied good players for both Bo and Woody.

Completely ignore a rich…

Completely ignore a rich source of talent right next door to us.  The rest of the Big 10 raids Ohio in a big way.

 

You have an amazingly strategic mind.

Why didn't we draw Illinois,…

Why didn't we draw Illinois, Nebraska or Purdue?  We are 2nd to last in the B1G East.  We should have drawn the 2nd to last place team in the B1G West.

 

 

 

I disagree with your call to…

I disagree with your call to go back to the 2016 offense.  There is a reason that teams are scoring far more in the 2000 to 2020 era than they did from 1980 to 2000.  Spread concepts are just superior.  The numbers do not lie.    

 

I total agree that Michigan is suffering because it has abandoned recruiting in Ohio and replaced it with recruiting in New England.  Which is just an AWFUL trade.

 

I wonder if Harbaugh hates recruiting in Ohio because he is mocked on those trips.  Can you imagine visiting a player at an Ohio high school?  Or watching his games?  What people must say to Harbaugh?

 

 

Considering that we have 4…

Considering that we have 4 new players on the O Line and that they suffered lots of injuries, I would say that the O Line actually did very well this year.

 

The pass protection was good.  The run game was bad, but it was bad because we keep on inserting man ball concepts (pin and pull) into the spread.  These "innovations" did not work.

 

The offense doesn't work because we cannot develop QBs to save our life.  We just can't.  Rewatch the games.  Milton had time to throw.  He just can't hit anything.  Many of the sacks that he took were because he ran through all of his progressions and just ran out of time.

Harbaugh has lost the…

Harbaugh has lost the players.  There is no recovering from this.  Look at all the transfers.  Look at the lack of fire and drive on the field.  I noticed that most of the guys didn't even bother to jump up and touch the banner at the start of games this year.

 

Harbaugh's playing favorites is biting him in the butt.  I am sure that the players hate this.  There is no meritocracy when you play favorites.  He also recruits guys that he thinks are "cool."  Milton was cool because he is a physical freak.  Ben Mason is a 1950s era football player.  Julian Welschof was a gamble that didn't pay off.

 

Harbaugh isn't calling the offense?  Perhaps.  But we are running man ball concepts from the spread.  Pin and pull.  Mason the fullback playing fullback from the slot  Stupid assignment football where slot receivers are expected to block outside linebackers.  He may not be calling the plays, but his fingerprints are EVERYWHERE.

 

Simplify the defense?  Man to man is the simpliest defense that there is.  But with zero pass rush, you cannot expect your DBs to cover receivers for 10 seconds.  Michigan needs to simplify the offense.  Mark Dantonio made fun of us for fielding 30 FORMATIONS in one half.  Our QBs are just confused.

God, I hope not.  He has…

God, I hope not.  He has lost the team and shows no evidence that he can recover them.

To a point.  You can also…

To a point.  You can also design plays that don't require 10 things to go right to be successful.

 

I personally cannot stand Harbaugh with his "if my slot back can block an outside linebacker, while my guard pulls to get the middle linebacker and my fullback fills against a free defensive tackle, we will get a lot of yards" schemes.

 

Asking a slot back to block an outside linebacker is not a high percentage proposition.  It is often hard for a guard to find his assigned middle linebacker in space.  Full backs are not well suited to blocking defensive tackles. 

 

Harbaugh's plays are full of these types of concepts.  We have to win all sorts of low percentage match ups.

 

Urban Meyer would just motion the slot out in the same circumstances.  Get the slot and the OLB out of the play.  The O-line would just zone block because it is much simpler.  He would not have a fullback on the field.  Instead, he might run a read option.  One simple read.

 

Gattis may be the OC, but the offense has lots of complexity that is suspciously Harbaugh.

Such a promising class that…

Such a promising class that is punching way below its weight.  Most of them are gone.

Are you sure I didn't play…

Are you sure I didn't play the game?  Played and coached.

Milton is a junior. …

Milton is a junior.  Development time is over.  After a really good season, a junior goes to the NFL.

 

That Cade outplayed Milton as a freshman just shows that there is a huge gulf between these two.  Cade is much better.  Adjusted for experience, he is tremendously better.

 

God only knows how Milton started.

 

My concern about Cade is that he is not a good runner (not very large or fast and little time in a college weight room) and looks a lot more fragile than Milton.  And so JH/JG will run him and get him hurt.

You should ask about…

You should ask about McCaffrey's departure.  

 

I am betting the Milton did not beat him out.  McCaffrey may have left for other reasons.

It is possible that Milton…

It is possible that Milton did not lose to McCaffrey.  McCaffrey might have left because he did not like what he saw.  Nico left, the O-Line is down, Shea went undrafted, etc.. 

 

You don't lose a year of eligibility with a 2020 transfer.

 

I have no proof.  This is just a possibility.  I also cannot believe that Milton was better than McCaffrey.  McCaffrey was better in every way except for arm strength.

Yeah.  I mention the 2nd and…

Yeah.  I mention the 2nd and 3rd string right here.

 

"At the same time, I remember a few games over the Harbaugh tenure where we were up comfortably in the 4th quarter and still had our starters in.  I would look at Devin Bush limping back to the huddle and wonder WTH he was still doing in the game.  The young guys siting on the bench were probably furious."

Harbaugh takes on projects.

Harbaugh takes on projects.

 

Joe Milton was an under 50% completion rate passer in HS with a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio.  Lots of passing yards, but not many rushing yards.  Good, but not even close to amazing numbers.  But with his stature and cannon for an arm......JH took him on as a project.

 

Julius Welschlos came from Germany as a physical freak and champion skier.  Zero football background.

 

Other guys might be good players, but have terrible attitudes (Solomon).

 

In all of these cases, these are project players.

 

I would rather take guys with good stats on the actual football fields who have no evidence of character flaws.

 

JH's hubris is biting him in the butt.  Taking the occasional project is fine, but we seem to have a lot of them.

Good defense = better field…

Good defense = better field position for your QB.

There is an irony here.

 

There is an irony here.

 

During his tenure, Harbaugh has rotated lots of guys into the offense.  So much so that a guy with the hot hand (e.g., Haskins running the ball) will only get a few carries in a game.  His 6 carries might average 10 yards a pop and leave everyone (Haskins included) wondering why he didn't get more snaps.

 

At the same time, I remember a few games over the Harbaugh tenure where we were up comfortably in the 4th quarter and still had our starters in.  I would look at Devin Bush limping back to the huddle and wonder WTH he was still doing in the game.  The young guys siting on the bench were probably furious.

 

The effect is that you piss off both your good players and your young guys on the bench.

 

 

Ahhhhh.  So the irony is not…

Ahhhhh.  So the irony is not totally lost on you?

 

Or is it?

Yeah....his pocket presence…

Yeah....his pocket presence was truly horrible.  He would bail out of clean pockets constantly.

 

I am not sure Michigan's offenses were simple.  The offense Shea had at Ole Miss WAS simple.  Probably too simple.

I am not sure how you could…

I am not sure how you could make this argument.

 

A freshman QB should not have comparable numbers as a junior or senior.  Shea showed a flat line trend YOY.  You act as though that is the expected course for a college QB.  It is not.

 

And Shea had a better supporting cast (particularly the O Line and a defense that put him in better places on the field) at Michigan than he did at Ole Miss.

 

It is really that simple.

Thank you for clarifying…

Thank you for clarifying McDaniel's tenure.

 

Yes...Fisch was great.  I remember lots of plays where we had receivers running free uncovered.  That happened a lot less frequently after Fisch left.

 

I am still not a Pep fan.  Shea improved very little during his Michigan tenure.  Many feel that he was better at Ole Miss where he was running for his life behind a porous offensive line.

 

I tend to agree.  I yell at…

I tend to agree.  I yell at the TV whenever Ben Mason is on the field.  All the pin and pull/trying to create more gaps.....it just has Harbaugh written all over it.

Harbaugh is attracted to…

Harbaugh is attracted to cool, shiny things.

 

He loves Ben Mason as a fullback.  Yet we have no need for a fullback.  We just pull another defender into the box.

 

He got Julius Welschlos from Germany.  Just because he was super athletic.  "We can develop him," said Harbaugh.

 

Joe Milton did very little as a QB in high school.  He was pretty bad in 2019.  But he has a cannon for an arm.  And that is cool.  "We can develop him," said Harbaugh.

 

Past football success is indicative of future success.  Harbaugh takes on too many development projects and then falls in love with them.

I noticed this too.  The…

I noticed this too.  The passion is gone.  I saw the moment this happened.  It was against OSU when he got called for tossing his clip board into the air and was penalized.  He reigned it back in, but the pendulum swung too far.

 

I also wonder how he really relates to young players.  He is a 50 something guy who is has a take on football that is older than he is.