In Your Opinion, Is JJ a Top 5 Pick?
In the UNLV and MSU games, JJ looked like the best quarterback in the draft to me. Even with the two interceptions in the TCU game I saw first overall pick talent in him.
On the other hand, there were several games where he missed open throws, didn’t see wide open receivers and didn’t look like a first round quarterback(Purdue, Illinois, Maryland and Bowling Green). Although he ended up with an impressive stat line in the Purdue game, he was wildly inaccurate at times when throwing to Cornelius Johnson. I think it would be a mistake to draft him in the top 5. I’m hoping he falls past 15 because he needs to sit and learn behind a veteran quarterback like Matthew Stafford, Geno Smith, or Dak Prescott.
April 16th, 2024 at 11:33 AM ^
Total Expert Opinion Here:
I think he's a Top 5 pick if the team has good coaches in place to develop him and utilize him correctly. And at a franchise that has stability from the top down. This isn't an earth shattering insight, but I don't know if he has the experience yet, or the overall skill to just lift an entire franchise. Not many guys do. So he may not be a Top 5 guy to those teams because they want something more polished or proven.
I actually didn't think Trevor Lawrence would be the all-world QB he was advertised as, but going to the Jags and Urban in year 1 didn't help. If Mahomes goes to the Raiders or Chicago, he's probably being discussed like Herbert or Dak. Is he good or does he suck?
Where you go, who coaches you, and who is running the franchise matters so much for a guy like JJ who needs more reps, needs to be developed, but may have the most upside of anyone in the draft. So I kind of hope he isn't a top 5 pick, so he goes somewhere that has a plan that will work, and a track record with their coaches developing guys. The Top 5 teams are not in that category, so I'd love to see him go to Denver, Seattle, LA Rams, or the Steelers in the top 20.
April 16th, 2024 at 11:48 AM ^
I agree, but nobody thought the Texans had a plan but them Ryans impressed as a first-year HC, they drafted well and had some talent on the roster that was under-utilized, and now they're a AFC contender. By comparison, the Panthers are a hot mess with bad vibes up and down the organization and Young looked pretty terrible.
The Chargers aren't grabbing a QB and neither are the Giants or Titans, but if he falls to the Falcons then that's a good spot because he'd be able to sit behind Cousins for a couple of years and then step into a starting role with a young, talented team. But yeah, if he winds up in NE or Arizona those aren't great spots unless, again, NE's new coaching staff really overhauls what is a bad offense.
April 16th, 2024 at 12:54 PM ^
The Texans are a unique case too. I wouldn't say the franchise is well run, but they've had good coaching, developed DeShaun, and had good offenses. But a rookie HC is a complete unknown as to whether or not they can turn a franchise around and Ryans seems like that kind of guy. So in that situation, it seems like the timing was perfect and Stroud is now obviously an elite guy. But if Stroud had been drafted a couple years earlier when they were in their Jack Easterbey phase of life, then maybe he looks more pedestrian.
Atlanta would be a good landing spot, depending on how the coaching regime pans out. Cousins is a perfect guy to be around for JJ and the talent they have on offense is really good. But is Raheem Morris the guy to build a staff that can develop him?
April 16th, 2024 at 12:05 PM ^
I agree that much of NFL QB success is related to the franchise you get drafted/developed by. It's scary to think that so much of the equation is the luck of the draft match.
The one thing not discussed much is the economics of 4-5 year cost control/cost certainty for a drafted quarterback. It's an additional factor weighing in favor of drafting a QB early, especially one with high upside.
JJ has the talent/intangibles to make it in the League. Either NE with their own pick or a team with immediate need will trade up and take him.
April 16th, 2024 at 12:48 PM ^
I think JJ will turn out the best of the QB's in this draft. I have seen an incredible amount of maturity on and off the field. For me that is what will eventually be the difference. Even if an ineptly run franchise drafts him, as soon as that rookie contract is over, JJ will get the chance to pick where he wants to play and I believe he will know what to look for. It won't just be about the money. Once that right pairing is made, he will have a long fruitful career.
April 16th, 2024 at 12:56 PM ^
If he doesn't light it up on his rookie deal, he's not going to get to pick his situation and go be a starter. He might be out of the league. Guys that don't pan out on their rookie deal don't just go to a great franchise, get the keys to the team, and begin to shine in a second phase. People don't even know if Justin Fields is good, average, or bad, and he got shipped to the Steelers to compete with a washed up Russ for a starting job.
Even if a horrible franchise drafts him, I think JJ will show what he is capable of. I know that is not always the case, but I truly believe JJ is a special player.
Full disclosure, I'm biased because I posted this: https://mgoblog.com/diaries/ending-drives-points-jj-mccarthy-delivering-harbaugh%27s-happiest-statthere-will-be-data-and
Watch the videos of JJ against Maryland & Bowling Green in this post which the OP cited as not great games. BG because that was his worst game and Maryland because that was a close game. That is an NFL level QB making NFL level decisions and throws. If anything, I came away even more impressed. The few misses which did happen were seldom JJ's issue. They were perfect throws where the receiver didn't play it right.
April 16th, 2024 at 11:36 AM ^
Yepper
April 16th, 2024 at 11:37 AM ^
If the question is purely if he is a top 5 talent regardless of position, then I'd say no. But QBs are way overvalued than any other position, so...probably?
Drafting QBs is a total crapshoot. Supposedly "safe" prospects like Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold, every Notre Dame QB ever, Matt Leinart, etc. bust at an alarmingly high rate. JJ has the tools, smarts, and work ethic to succeed, but I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up being mediocre in the NFL. Also wouldn't be shocked to see him succeed.
As others have said, much depends on the system around him. If he's thrown into the fire like David Carr was and has a shitty supporting cast, he's got no chance. If he's allowed to sit for a year or two like the Packers do to their QBs, he's got a fantastic chance.
April 16th, 2024 at 11:40 AM ^
I'm split on this question. On the one hand, I believe in my Michigan heart that if McCarthy had thrown the ball 40 times a game, he'd be 1st or 2nd to Caleb Williams. I think his arm talent is right up there with anybody, and his ability to scramble, create, keep his eyes downfield or pick up yards with his feet, not to mention grade-A intangibles--all of that gives him as a high a ceiling as anybody in the draft.
On the other hand, if he had gone to Alabama, and I had only watched 1-2 games, and they had just won a championship with our kind of ground-and-pound offense; I'm sure I'd be very, very skeptical of how that would translate.
The biggest thing I'm concerned with, and the biggest reason I think he should've come back, is his sometimes mystifying inability to loft the ball on deep throws. I wonder if it's a perfectionism thing/if it'll be easy to coach out at the next level, but on deep throws, he seemed to consistently be trying to put the ball on a line to a spot, rather than putting air under it and letting his receiver run. That would concern me if I were thinking of drafting him, say, 3rd.
April 16th, 2024 at 11:53 AM ^
Sacrifice a top 5/10 draft selection to work on the loft of his deep throws, not even close to worth the risk. Maybe if we were throwing more he would have been more in rhythm.
April 16th, 2024 at 11:54 AM ^
His deep throws looked fine at the combine. Plenty of air. I think he's got the ability, and he was being coached to "put the deep ball where only your WR can get it", i.e. put it a bit long / away from the DB.
I'm thinking he'll be fine on that, after some good NFL coaching.
April 16th, 2024 at 11:44 AM ^
I personally think JJ might be a bust. He has some major holes in his accuracy. Hopefully he can sit and learn
April 16th, 2024 at 12:22 PM ^
Plus 1 not for you opinion - I think you're wrong. But for having the balls to state such an opinion on this board, where going against groupthink mostly gets you killed.
Eh, I negged you both!
April 16th, 2024 at 11:47 AM ^
I think there are a few things that Michigan fans realize that most others don't:
- He's young. He probably didn't hit his ceiling yet in college football. Guys like Daniels, Penix, and Nix had way more time. Imagine what JJ would look like with two more seasons.
- He's extremely athletic. He's probably a 4.5 guy at worst, and it isn't just straight line speed. His reverse spins to avoid sacks remind me of a young Russell Wilson.
- Not only did he play in a run-first offense, but when he did throw he wasn't throwing to Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze. Roman and Cornelius were very good players, but some of these QBs were throwing to one (or multiple) day 1 and day 2 WRs.
April 16th, 2024 at 12:13 PM ^
I haven't heard anybody make the Russell Wilson comp, but I think that's actually really accurate. He's taller than RW, and he's probably marginally faster--we'll see how their arms compare in the league--but both guys have leadership qualities and kind of new-agey positivity philosophies (although JJ's seems much healthier at this point than Russell, no judgement to either guy). Surprised I haven't heard that one before. Honestly, if the Seahawks/Pete Carroll manage to get JJ (they won't, but if they did), I think that could be a really good situation.
I hate to break it to you, but Pete Carroll doesn't coach Seattle anymore
April 16th, 2024 at 11:48 AM ^
I wouldn't spend a top five pick on any of the quarterbacks in this years draft... but what do I know?
I think JJ has a great upside and his 'zen' is his greatest attribute.
I bet he's around a while. At least a second contract, maybe 3rd?
April 16th, 2024 at 11:48 AM ^
I believe so. He is the total package. Has all of the physical tools you need to play the position. Handled the pressure of Michigan Football flawlessly. Total team guy as well. Didn’t complain when the team ran the ball instead of throwing.
April 16th, 2024 at 11:55 AM ^
Absolutely. He has improved tremendously over the past three years. What is not always recognized is that he is only 21. He is still growing physically and mentally. His upside is significant. If he is given the chance to be QB2 for a year he will achieve much in the NFL for many years.
April 16th, 2024 at 11:58 AM ^
It's a crapshoot trying to predict. Heck, most of this board thought Stroud would be a failure in the NFL, and then by the end of the season the same posters were proclaiming him a 'generational' talent and proof that Ryan Day can't coach.
I've only peripherally followed the draft, but it seems like there are a lot of signs pointing to Minnesota, which seems decently set up for a rookie QB to come in and play well. Gun to my head, forced to make a prediction, I think he ends up the 2nd best QB in this class after Williams, and probably a top 10-15 level QB with a long career.
April 16th, 2024 at 12:01 PM ^
This guy seems to have a Brady-like mentality. He's mature beyond his years. But physically and developmentally he's still young. Combined those things probably mean he's gonna be a stud. He will work on the things he needs to improve on and hone the other skills. With higher end WR talent I think he'll be very very good.
April 16th, 2024 at 12:05 PM ^
JJ's best games are the biggest games, the ones with the most pressure to succeed, with the most eyes watching. He'll be a fine top 5 draft pick. Did you see the throws he made against OSU? Including the one to Wilson down the sideline in 2021? Or the one between the safety and LB to Wilson in the EZ just a few months back?
April 16th, 2024 at 12:13 PM ^
In this particular draft, yes.
The QB talent, frankly, is underwhelming. I respect the accomplishments of C. Williams, Daniels and Maye but none of them are can't-miss prospects.
Similarly, you don't have five monster non-QB talents that are clearly top 5 guys that would push JJ out of that range. I would definitely have MHJ up there, but beyond that, guys are fungible.
April 16th, 2024 at 12:14 PM ^
If it were up to me I'd take him at #3
April 16th, 2024 at 12:15 PM ^
Attacking this question from a different approach, below are some stats from the 1995-2014 NFL Drafts. If we consider a "very successful NFL player" to be someone who was selected to 3+ Pro Bowls in their career (that's why the 2014 cut-off, guys who had a chance to play at least 10 years), this is where they were drafted:
- 43* were Top 5 draft picks. (in other words, 43% of Top 5 draft picks wound up making 3+ Pro Bowls).
- 21 were drafted from 6 to 10.
- 92 were drafted elsewhere in the 1st round.
- 47 were 2nd round draft picks, 34 in the 3rd round, 36 in the 4th-7th rounds.
Net: on average, 3.2 of your Top 10 draft picks will be "very successful NFL players." The standard deviation is 1.6, FWIW (nobody from 2009 qualified, while 6 picks from 2011 qualified, with JJ Watt as the 11th pick).
Anyway: let's assume 2024 is the average. Who will our 3.2 be? Nobody is a lock in the NFL, of course, but MHJ and Joe Alt seem like as close to a lock as can be. That's 2. Then figure 1-2 of the QBs.
But which one? Honestly, I don't know - depending on the day, I could make a case for any of them. I could also make a case for any of them being a bust. There's A LOT of potential variance with this group, more so than most college QB classes.
If it's me, I wouldn't take JJ Top 5. With a Top 5 pick, you really do need to hit - it's a hell of a resource. Give me more of that sure thing - any NFL team could use a MHJ or Joe Alt.
----
*Technically 42, but I'm counting Sean Taylor (who only made 2 Pro Bowls).
April 16th, 2024 at 12:19 PM ^
I think he has the potential, certainly, to warrant having been a top-5 pick by the end of his career. He's probably the most polarizing QB prospect in the draft because there's just a lot of relative unknowns, how much was Harbaugh "keeping his stallion in the barn," and can McCarthy sling it across the yard and win a game for you throwing 30-40x a game if he needs to.
Don't know the answer to that. Only time in college he had to play that kind of game, he lost. Some of that wasn't his fault, defense didn't play great, but he gave away 14 points to TCU.
My level of confidence in his career outlook depends largely on who drafts him. If he ends up with the Vikings, who have quite a bit of talent he can play with right now, he may be in really good shape. If he goes to the Broncos, he could have a rough first year or two as will be a team devoid of a lot of talent, but the prospect of pairing him with Sean Payton for the long term is extremely tantalizing to think about. If he goes to the Pats....dunno. New HC for the first time in over twenty years. That's all an unknown.
If he goes to the Giants or the Commanders, then god help him.
Guess I'm not really answering the question. Do I think he's a top-5 pick this year? Yes, but a good part of that is a product of him being a QB and going into a very QB-driven league. That said, he has the potential to be the best QB in this entire draft class when its all said and done.
April 16th, 2024 at 12:21 PM ^
Let’s say the first 3 selections are Williams, Daniels, and Maye.
That’s 3 QBs who are going to be YOLO’d onto the field immediately, and if they’re very very lucky, will not get the David Carr treatment behind iffy offensive lines. The teams at the top of the draft are usually very much in flux, with coaches and/or GMs feeling their seats getting warm.
If you were McCarthy, would you even WANT to be a Top 5 pick? Maybe if someone trades up for him.
April 16th, 2024 at 12:24 PM ^
Why does it matter if JJ is top 5 or pick 199? If he is a good quarterback people will find out.
April 16th, 2024 at 12:45 PM ^
It does matter where guys are taken. As has been discussed, the team they go to is extremely important. Good luck succeeding on a team with a shitty supporting cast, especially at OL (as an aside, probably the best argument for why Brady is the GOAT isn't the seven rings, but rather that he did what he did with the offensive "weapons" he was stuck with; other than a few years (mostly 2007-2010), the offensive skill players around him were just guys...).
But draft slot is also important. Counterintuitively, a given QB will actually have a higher chance of success the lower they're drafted. The QB is the same either way, but taking them lower rather than higher allows for accumulation of other talent. For example, Brady's chances for early success were boosted by the fact that he was taken in the sixth round instead of the first (like Peyton), since the Pats got Brady and a first rounder instead of Brady and a sixth rounder...
April 16th, 2024 at 12:24 PM ^
No. He needed another year.
Right now he is a late first, early second round pick based on production and performance. He was never quite elite in college although he did flash elite ability at times.
A QBs W/L college record is highly misleading. Mahomes record was poor. Joey Harrington’s was not.
If he stays healthy JJ is capable of having an excellent career. But capable and actually doing are two different beasts at the next level.
Exactly what would he have needed to improve on in this hypothetical extra year?
April 16th, 2024 at 12:26 PM ^
I think JJ will have the best NFL career of any QB in this year's draft class, regardless of where he's picked, but if I'm a GM with one of the first five picks, do I draft him? I don't think so, because I think you can get him lower. If I'm Washington or New England with the 2nd and 3rd picks, respectively, I would trade down (but not too far) and get a huge haul in return from someone who wants to pick Drake Maye or Jaydon Daniels. Then, I'd pick JJ a little lower. Chicago at #1 will take Williams, Cards will take Marvin Harrison at #4, and Chargers at #5 won't pick a QB.
Just my opinion. What the hell do I know. Nuthin.
April 16th, 2024 at 12:27 PM ^
Much better college career than Brady. He has the same drive to win as Brady. I would take the risk and draft him top 5
April 16th, 2024 at 12:35 PM ^
IMO he is the #2 or #3 QB in this class behind Caleb Williams. It would be great for him to land in an offense like the one Detroit runs, because it's close to the Harbaugh offense (run heavy and utilizes the TE). Based on this year's draft class, I would use a top five pick on him.
The only thing JJ lacks is tape. We were so run dependent that we didn't get to see him carry a game with his arm. Henne had Braylonfest and a few others. Brady had the Orange Bowl with Alabama. Grbac had an entire season with Desmond Howard and Derrick Alexander.
JJ is probably that guy, but no one can know for sure. I can't complain at all about the last three years, but Harbaugh probably could have manufactured a few more plays for JJ's reel.
Top 5, no. Top 10, yes.
I hope he goes in the 6th round and follows in the footsteps of another M 6th round QB.
Yes. Whether he's no. 1 or 2, I think that no one knows.
Yes.
JJ was close to money on 3rd down plays. He made good things happen. JJ is also a master at broken plays and can improvise very well. He has great leadership skills. For those reasons alone makes him a Top 5 pick and 2nd QB after Caleb Williams.
There's a strong possibility the Giants would take him at 6 if he's still available. They're skittish because they took Jones at 6 but that GM is long gone and they apparently are impressed with JJ.
This is a complex question so let's look at it from several angles.
Do I think JJ WILL be drafted in the first 5, absolutely possible. I've seen much worse QBs get drafted that high.
Do I think JJ is one of the top 5 QBs available this year? Yes, absolutely. He's better than Bo Nix. Doesn't have the injury questions that Penix has.
Would I draft him that high? That really depends on what my team needs. What kind of system my OC runs, etc.
Do I think he'll be a franchise QB? I'm not sure. He has potential but he has the one problem that's really hard to fix. He's not 'Drew Brees' accurate. He makes good decisions, he's got the physical tools, but his ball placement is just not elite yet. I watched the Kurt Warner breakdown of JJ against Purdue and there were issues there.
I hope he gets drafted by a team that can let him sit and grow one more year.
This goes to one reason the Giants might draft him. They can bail on the Jones contract after this year so JJ could sit and wait that out.
In a word, yes. And I still wish he was coming back for his senior year to show why that determination didn't require debate.
I would take him over any other QB in this class. Everyone seems so high on Caleb Williams but I would take JJ over him every time.
I hope he is the best QB in the class, and I think he will be, but I also don't think that will be saying much based on who those QBs are.
I think JJ will be selected in the top 5, and I think that would be an overdraft. I do also think, however, that he is the 4th best QB in the draft / to go off the board.
Yeah, top 3 for me provided you put the premium on QBs.
I'd buy Caleb Williams and Jaden Daniels over him, I'm not very sold on Drake Maye.
Who knows if JJ will work out, I hope so. The good film is really good, but the drop off in play is a worry, so I think it depends heavily on which film you want to believe. (JJ wasn't bad PSU on, he just wasn't good enough to be a top 5 talent, imo)