In Your Opinion, Is JJ a Top 5 Pick?
In the UNLV and MSU games, JJ looked like the best quarterback in the draft to me. Even with the two interceptions in the TCU game I saw first overall pick talent in him.
On the other hand, there were several games where he missed open throws, didn’t see wide open receivers and didn’t look like a first round quarterback(Purdue, Illinois, Maryland and Bowling Green). Although he ended up with an impressive stat line in the Purdue game, he was wildly inaccurate at times when throwing to Cornelius Johnson. I think it would be a mistake to draft him in the top 5. I’m hoping he falls past 15 because he needs to sit and learn behind a veteran quarterback like Matthew Stafford, Geno Smith, or Dak Prescott.
The most disappointing floor is 10 years in the league being paid millions to call in plays and Chad Henne your way in the game.
It all depends on the talent in the draft class and the needs of the top 5. I do think JJ may be a top 5 QB, not just because he has the ability but because of his football IQ and leadership. Those qualities to me make him a top 5 guy.
Look forward to your Drake Maye write up. 🤦♂️
I think JJ is a fascinating case study. He has a definite aura about him, which is the kind of thing that bodes well for continual improvement and thus a long career. He has the arm, the poise, and the wheels to thrive.
But... I can't remember a quarterback in recent memory that has such a weird statistical profile. Andrew Luck had as many completions as JJ had attempts.
In the end, however, I think he'll be drafted by Minnesota, sit behind Darnold for about 10 games, then start his journey to Canton.
Without a doubt
Was Brock Purdy a top 5 pick. It's a crap shoot. I would rather that JJ take a few years to develop. If I had two solid QBs that were 2-3 years from retirement on my roster==>I take him top 5 for sure, if I didn't have other needs. I don't know of a single team like that.
I guess the answer is no. But first round... you bet.
He got banged up vs. Penn State. The NFL is going to punish him. He needs to build up his body a bit. Really sorry to see him go this early. Could have used another year at Michigan IMO.
I’ve read enough of the draftniks knocks on JJ and the overwhelming #1 knock has been lack of volume compared to the other guys in the top five QBs of the draft. There are several problems with this idea, not the least of which is that JJ didn’t play in the 4th quarter of 9 games this past season. Some of that is a product of the schedule, some of it is the dominance of the defense.
But, if extrapolated out to generally the same range of pass attempts as Williams, Daniels, Maye, Nix and Penix, then JJ shines as a top ten QB stat wise for the season. The average pass attempts of those other qbs is 433 (Penix drives the top end at 555 and Daniels, surprisingly, drives the low end with 327).
Using the same completion percentage and yds per pass ave. (which would generally be close to what he’d do over that many pass attempts), JJ would have thrown for roughly 3897 yds and 29 TDs vs 5 ints.
As noted in several posts above, JJ did NOT have the luxury of throwing to first round or high second round WRs or TEs, like Daniels , Penix or Nix(or Williams 2022 season). Yet he routinely made NFL window throws. IMO, his ability to diagnose the defense both pre and post snap is better than the other top qbs in the draft.
My opinion is that if JJ had near the volume of passing that the other qbs did there’d be no question about him being a top pick. Indeed, he might even be arguably the number two ranked qb in the draft and pushing Williams for number one.
In my decidedly non-expert opinion, yes. i'll go so far as to say that if he had near the volume in passing stats that the other top QB's had, he'd be in serious discussion for #1 overall. his skill-set and physical abilities, his decision-making, and his attitude and overall 'moxie' are all top-shelf. That he played for a team whose philosophy was more 'Bully Ball' than 'Air Raid' doesn't make him a less valuable or viable future pro.
my $0.02