FORMATION NOTES: As promised, Purdue was a 5 man line at all times, usually backed by man to man and the deepest safety:

There are ten guys on the screen for Purdue because the FS is not on the screen. Purdue did deviate from this sometimes; a couple run plays saw the FS at ~12 yards and activated on run plays. The five man line was near-ubiquitious, with just a few passing downs deviating.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: The usual everywhere except the skill positions. Skill positions:

• Barner: 61 snaps (of 71)
• Johnson: 60
• Wilson: 53
• Edwards: 36
• Corum: 33
• Loveland: 30
• Morris: 22
• Bredeson: 22
• Morgan: 13
• Jones: 10
• Mullings: 8
• Clemons: 4

Corum had a significant lead on Edwards in the first three quarters, and then Edwards made up the ground. Loveland relatively marginalized in a game where Michigan was more wideout-heavy than they had been. I have a theory about this: Michigan wanted to play a game where they were pass-forward because there's a nonzero chance they're going to have to be against PSU and/or OSU.

[After THE JUMP: some wobbles and frustrations but also 41 points.]

Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M24	1	10	Gun TTB	1	2	2	5-1 under	6	Pass	Scramble	McCarthy	3
Motion from Loveland across the formation draws a chaser, indicating man; Purdue drops into an eight man zone. M has all their WRs short and JJ doesn’t really have anything except maybe Johnson on a hitch for five yards. He takes off for a meh gain. (MA, N/A, protection 1/1, RPS -1, JJ push)
M27	2	7	Gun 3-wide	1	2	2	Base 3-4	7	Run	Counter	Corum	0
Well: it finally happened. After 15 years charting Michigan football the backside hinge block on a gap run is relevant. Henderson(-2) false steps towards a DT and cannot recover to cut off the backside DE, who is able to tackle as Corum hesitates to set up his blocks. Keegan(-2) also airballs a kickout so this probably isn’t going anywhere anyway. Bredeson(+0.5) got a pop; Barnhart(+0.5) turned his guy in. There is a bobble on a high snap that makes this exchange awkward but I don’t think it’s a major driver of the result.
M27	3	7	Gun TTB	1	1	3	Exotic	5	Pass	Post	Wilson	20
This is man despite no motion following Morris as he goes outside of the bunch just presnap; Purdue passes off and realigns, so Wilson gets matched up with … uh… a true freshman three star. Dude flips 360 degrees despite no outside threaten from Wilson and JJ just lasers it in for an easy chunk. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, JJ +1, RPS +2)
M47	1	10	Gun trips TE U	2	1	2	Base 3-4	7	Run	Power GT	Mullings	14
Barnhart(+0.5) turns in a DT who’s not really trying to fight back outside. Keegan(+0.5) gets a kick. Henderson(+0.5) gets around and hits a LB; LB gets to choose what happens and pops outside. Mullings(+1) perceives that he’s got the lane outside anyway and hits it; runs through an ankle tackle and picks up a chunk.
O39	1	10	Gun trips	2	1	2	5-1 even	6	Pass	Fly	Edwards	37
Edwards motions out and nobody goes with him; Purdue then sends out a guy wearing 47. This guy is dead and everyone knows it. Edwards torches the guy, JJ puts it right on him, seems like Edwards should score but he steps out at the 2. (DO, 3, protection 1/1, JJ +2, RPS +2)
O2	1	G	Goal line	1	4*	0	Goal line	11	Run	Power	Corum	2
Jones(+1) fires in the playside DE; Loveland(+1) blasts the OLB; Corum can stroll in.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-0, 10 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M33	1	10	Gun 3-wide	1	2	2	3-4 over	7	Run	Power GT	Corum	5
Purdue slants away; Henderson(+1) washes his guy down the line a long way. Zinter(+0.5) gets enough of a DE trying to shoot around from the outside; Barnhart(+0.5) gets a second level block on a guy who successfully funnels Corum(+0.5) to the extra hat in the box. Corum runs him over and gets some YAC; could be more but dude is able to grab Corum’s leg after he hits the deck.
M38	2	5	Gun 3TE	1	2	2	3-4 under	8.5	Pass	PA Y Cross	Wilson	20
Johnson motions in to a wing TE spot, then motions back out right before the snap. Man coverage revealed and run; Wilson is running a crossing route against outside leverage; PA freezes a couple linebackers who could hypothetically drop into the route; JJ lasers it in for a chunk. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, JJ +1, RPS +2)
O42	1	10	Gun 3-wide	2	1	2	3-4 over	7	Run	Lead stretch	Edwards	4
Almost. Not quite. Edwards jet motion from the slot into a zone stretch with Mullings leading it out. Barner(+0.5) kicks out an end. Zinter(+1) and Barnhart(-1) successfully scoop the playside DE. Mullings(+0.5) IDs and attacks the playside LB. Barnhart… chases the same guy. Unblocked LB when it should have been Edwards 1 v 1 vs the safety. Note that the safety lined up at 12 yards here instead of 20 and fired on the snap.
O38	2	6	Gun trips	1	2	2	5-1 under	7	Pass	Hitch	Loveland	Inc
CB walks up and blitzes off the slot; Corum picks him up. JJ has time. Loveland curls inside and hitches up at the sticks; he starts drifting right by a step and then stops; JJ appears to believe he’s going to continue and ends up winging it wide. IMO this is (MA, 0, protection 2/2, Loveland route -, JJ push)
O38	3	6	Gun trips TE	1	2	2	3-4 over	7	Pass	Yo-yo flat	Morris	21
Morris goes in motion, gets a chaser, and then suddenly changes direction right before the snap. Chaser has to change direction and has lost two steps laterally before the snap. Then he has to run through a couple of slants and goes around Johnson, easy throw, chunk gain. (CA, ,3 protection 1/1, JJ +0.5, RPS +2)
O17	1	10	Pistol trips	1	2	2	Base 3-4	7	Run	Yo-yo end around	Johnson	14
Bredeson motions into the box and then reverses field; M pulls Zinter the other way, freezing the backside LB. Frontside LB is easy pickings for Barner(+0.5); Bredeson(+0.5) gets a kickout on the corner Barner left. Whole playside of the DL chases Corum. Johnson’s man cover CB is able to track him down just before he TD. RPS +2.
O3	1	G	Pistol 3-wide	1	2	2	3-4 under	8	Run	Dive	Corum	3
OL pancakes all three DTs and Corum goes flying squirrel attack over them to score. Henderson, Keegan, and Nugent all +1.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 14-0, 6 min 1st Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O12	1	10	Gun 2TE	1	2	2	3-4 under	8	Run	Power GT	Edwards	0
Dead from the snap as M pulls Barnhart, lined up directly over Scourton, and he slants hard to the interior; Loveland in a wing TE spot is never blocking him. Barnhart(-1) does need to feel what’s happening and stop to prevent a TFL. RPS -2.
O12	2	10	Gun 2-back	2	1	2	3-4 over	7	Pass	PA flare screen	Edwards	0
Loveland(-2) comes off the LOS and sets up to block a LB far to the interior who is focused on play action and will never threaten Edwards. Loveland’s man is thus unblocked and easily fills. (CA, 3, screen, JJ push)
O12	3	10	Gun TTB	1	2	2	5-1 under	6	Pass	Cross	Loveland	Inc
This is supposed to be mesh with two guys blocking their defenders into the path of the guy on Johnson, and this looks like it will go just fine until the umpire executes a magnificent chuck on Johnson (refs -3) and JJ has to come off it. He tries Loveland for five yards but he has no separation because he wasn’t trying to get any and DB PBUs. (CA, 0, protection 2/2, JJ push)
Drive Notes: FG(29), 17-0, 4 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M21	1	10	I-Form Big	1	3*	1	3-4 under	9	Run	Down G	Corum	9
Frontside G pull and the backside LB freezes. Keegan(+0.5) gets a kick; Barner(+1) chips on Henderson(+0.5)’s guy and extends to a LB, who he moves; Bredeson has a dodgy lead block but gets it done. Nugent(+0.5) stalls out the NT. Corum(+0.5) meets a guy at 4 and grinds out 9. RPS +1, froze LB.
M30	2	1	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	3-4 over	7	Run	Counter	Corum	3
Barnhart(+0.5) turns in a DT; Keegan(+1) adjusts to a guy diving inside of him and appears to have him under control before Loveland(-2) joins the party here instead of extending outside. Free hitter out there, he holds the edge and comes down to tackle.
M33	1	10	Pistol TTE U	1	2	2	3-4 under	8	Run	Windback	Corum	5
Relevant LB doesn’t bite at all, RPS -1. Barnhart(+1) and Nugent(+0.5) both seal DTs; Zinter(+0.5) climbs to the other LB; Bredeson(+0.5) gets a kick. Corum(+1) has a bunch of space and puts his foot in the ground to slide past the LB and get a decent gain.
M38	2	5	Pistol twin TE	1	2	2	3-4 even	8	Pass	PA dumpoff	Corum	4
PA holds the LB level as Purdue is dropping into one of their eight man zones and the CB on Johnson gets nosy. Johnson seems wide open and this is a two man route so I don’t get why JJ doesn’t throw this. He checks down to get four yards so OK I guess, but I dunno. (MA, 3, protection 1/1, JJ push)
M42	3	1	Gun 3TE TO	1	2	2	3-4 even	9	Run	Dive	Mullings	4
Tackle over with Henderson and Barnhart next to each other on the right side of the line. Clemons is not quite an inline TE, he’s in a two-point stance. NT gets clobbered by Nugent(+1) and Keegan(+0.5); Barner(+0.5) fends off a DE and Mullings easily converts.
M46	1	10	Gun 2-back	2	1	2	3-4 over	7	Pass	Wheel	Edwards	Inc
Edwards gets away with some forward motion presnap, refs +1. He draws a safety as Purdue only has one LB in the game. M is running mesh again but this time the Johnson crosser gets disrupted by a Purdue DB shoving Wilson upfield, nice play by him. Well covered wheel is the only option; JJ lays in a perfect back shoulder; Edwards catches it but Kane is grabbing at his arms and Edwards does not survive contact with the ground. (DO, 2, protection 2/2, JJ +2)
M46	2	10	Pistol twin TE	1	2*	2	3-4 over	8	Run	Power	Mullings	2
Zinter(+1) gets a heavy chip and climbs to a LB but Nugent(-1) leans too much and gets off balance, allowing the DT to swim back outside. Keegan(+0.5) pulls through and gets a kick; Bredeson(+0.5) thunks a LB. Mullings(+0.5) has no gap so just slams it up in the middle of the line; he keeps his feet and keeps pushing and gets six yards by falling forward through a ton of traffic but the refs(-1) whistle it dead just as he’s surging forward.
M48	3	8	Gun trips	1	1	3	Exotic	6	Pass	Curl	Barner	Inc
Barner(route+) just wins against Kane, getting into the chuck and then breaking back, open at the sticks. JJ fires in a ball that is a bit behind but still within the frame of Barner’s body and it should be caught; it’s not. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, JJ +0.5)
Drive Notes: Punt, 17-0, 14 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M20	1	10	I-Form 3-wide	1	2	2	3-4 under	8	Run	Crack sweep	Corum	-2
Both Barnhart and Zinter leave; Loveland(-2) picks the wrong guy to crack, hitting the OLB lined up over him instead of the DE to the interior. DE is able to flow outside of Zinter , who blocks him but play is dead now. Corum(-1) should see the issue and cut off of Zinter and hope to get back to the LOS and maybe a yard or so more; he continues to run the play that is now dead and eventually gets TFLed.
M18	2	12	Gun trips	1	2	2	5-1 over	6	Pass	Y cross	Loveland	17
Clap; jump; free play; RPS +1. Loveland just runs away from Kane and JJ puts it on his facemask. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, JJ +1)
M35	1	10	Gun 3-wide	1	2	2	5-1 over	7	Pass	Out	Wilson	7 + 30 pen
Wilson motions in, goes vertical, gets on the feet of the CB, and then breaks out. JJ hits him. Purdue CB ends up picking up Wilson and another guy crushes him, flag. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, JJ +0.5). Also roughing the passer, flag.
O28	1	10	Gun trips	1	1	3	5-1 over	6	Pass	Dig	Morgan	Inc (Pen -10)
Zone from Purdue; Morgan breaks across the face of a safety and is open. JJ fires it in and I really wish I had a replay because I’m torn. This holds up Morgan a bit and is slightly behind but IMO this goes right through his hands and should be caught. (CA, 2, protection 2/2, JJ +0.5). Corum gets the second worst holding call in Michigan history. (Refs -5)
O38	1	20	Gun trips	1	1	3	5-1 over	6	Pass	Sack	N/A	-7
Henderson kinda sorta gets beat off the edge but he stays attached and when the DE tries to anchor at nine yards he’s shoving him and helps induce the guy’s feet giving out and going down. This induces a step up in the pocket. Not that bad, but Henderson -1. A DT twist is happening and Nugent(-2) chases the looper instead of picking up the slanter. Keegan gets his Mike Onwenu on but that only helps for an instant and JJ get sacked. (PR, N/A, protection 0/3)
O45	2	27	Gun trips	1	1	3	5-1 over	6	Pass	Dig	Johnson	16
DE spins at Barnhart and falls; Barnhart hops on him. JJ doesn’t have to reset but decides to, which actually exposes him to more pressure because Zinter no longer has an angle to block a looping DT. Doesn’t matter as JJ resets his feet and zips it in to Johnson as he breaks his dig off and finds a window against zone. (DO, 2, protection 2/2, JJ +2)
O29	3	11	Gun trips	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Out	Wilson	14
Presnap clap gets Purdue to tip their blitz; JJ motions in Barner to block. Purdue sends six against a seven man protection; Michigan picks it up and Wilson runs an out against man coverage that is an easy conversion. (DO, 3, protection 3/3, JJ +2) RPS +1.
O14	1	10	Gun 2TE	1	2	2	3-4 under	8	Pass	Post	Johnson	Inc
Johnson(route+) does a great job to get an inside leverage CB to bite on a move and cleanly wins to the inside. JJ fires it to him; it’s a bit high but this goes right through Johnson’s hands. (CA, 2, protection 2/2, JJ +0.5)
O14	2	10	I-Form Big	1	3*	1	3-4 over	9	Run	Counter trap	Edwards	2
Almost here but Keegan(-1) pulls and hits a DE who was let go at first; DE shows good discipline to not shoot upfield and rocks Keegan back, controlling the block and disengaging to the inside. He tackles Edwards at the LOS. Zinter(+0.5) washed a guy down and Bredeson(+0.5) got a second level block.
O12	3	8	Gun 4-wide	1	2	2	5-1 under	6	Pass	TE hitch	Loveland	Inc
Zone again; Michigan well prepped and has Loveland threaten a corner route before hitching up and JJ gets this ball out with perfect timing. It’s at the sticks and will convert but JJ wings it wide and Loveland has to spear it with one hand; he does so, making the circus catch… and then the CB is able to dislodge it because the throw took Loveland into him. (IN, 1, protection 1/1, JJ -1)
Drive Notes: FG(31), 20-0, 7 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M25	1	10	Ace twin TE	1	2	2	3-4 over	8	Run	Split zone	Corum	3
Jet motion from Wilson feels like a Morgan test run. Purdue appears to be running a scrape exchange of some sort as a LB just drifts outside oddly; Keegan(-0.5) chases him, which is OK, I guess, but he doesn’t chip Henderson’s guy; Henderson(-0.5) loses control of him and he’s able to slim the hole down. Nugent(+0.5) does okay with his guy but he is able to fight back after two yards and there’s a free hitter in the gap, too. RPS -1.
M28	2	7	Gun trips TE	1	1	3	5-1 even	6.5	Pass	Dig	Johnson	Inc
JJ comes off his first read, which looks like Morgan or Wilson, and finds Johnson between the two, but a DT flashes in his vision before Keegan comes off to pick his loop up and JJ gets happy feet; he never fully resets and throws this one awkwardly; it wings behind Johnson. (IN, 0, protection 2/2, JJ -1)
M28	3	7	Gun 4-wide	1	1	3	Exotic	5	Pass	Hitch	Morris	6
Henderson(-1) again kinda sorta beat but still attached and pushing; JJ could step up if he wanted to. Instead he fires it into Morris, but wide. Morris has to make a nice diving catch and cannot get past the sticks as a result. (MA, 2, protection ½, JJ -0.5)
M34	4	1	Gun 3TE TO	1	2	2	3-4 over	9	Run	Dive	Mullings	0
Clemons is asked to block a very good DE From a standup wing TE spot that is not as tight as split to Barner as it should be and inevitably loses. Other DE slashes under Barnhart(-0.5), who is always going to get slanted under but if he was bigger maybe he gets a bit more push. Mullings gets hit by both of Purdue’s best players and stalls out. RPS -3. Playing Clemons on this snap is inane.
Drive Notes: Turnover on downs, 20-3, 2 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M22	1	10	Gun 4-wide	1	1	3	5-1 over	6	Pass	Hitch	Loveland	12
Quick hitch against soft coverage and Loveland YACs out the first down. Stunt gets past Barnhart(-2) and this has to come out. (CA, 3, protection 0/2, JJ +0.5)
M34	1	10	Gun 4-wide	1	1	3	5-1 over	6	Pass	Improv	Johnson	23
Barnhart(-1) bulled back into JJ and he moves up in the pocket, finding he can escape since there are only four rushers. He’s able to make a throw moving away from his throwing arm that’s right to a wide-open Johnson on the sideline. (CA+, 3, protection ½, JJ +1)
O43	1	10	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	Exotic	6	Pass	Corner	Johnson	Inc
Route seem somewhat confused as Wilson and Johnson are in the same vicinity, but Johnson’s open; JJ throws it well behind. (IN, 0, protection 2/2, JJ -1)
O43	2	10	Gun trips	1	1	3	Prevent	3	Pass	Hail Mary	Sack	-19
Henderson(-1) gets spun through and Barnhart(-1) loses control of his guy so JJ has to start moving around before he can even contemplate a throw. He goes on an Ishtar Journey but whatever, it’s a Hail Mary. (Not charted, 0/2 protection)
Drive Notes: EOH, 20-6.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M25	1	10	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	3-4 over	7	Pass	Out	Wilson	6
Yo-yo motion from Wilson, quick out. Decent gain. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, JJ +0.5)
M31	2	4	Gun trips U	2	1	2	3-4 over	7	Run	Power GT	Corum	2
Keegan(-1) gives up some penetration to a slanting DT and Corum has to hop around him. Henderson(+0.5) washes his guy way down; Zinter(+1) finds the spill guy and fires him in; Barnhart(+0.5) gets a kickout. Corum eats the unblocked guy at the LOS; if Keegan doesn’t let this penetration Corum has a much better chance of breaking a tackle.
M33	3	2	Gun TTB TE	1	2	2	5-1 even	7	Pass	Improv	Loveland	9
Attempted yo-yo flat to Wilson but Purdue banjos it and covers it. JJ comes off of it and probably has Barner on a drag to convert but doesn’t have time as Corum(-2) exits the backfield and lets a blitzer through clean. JJ dodges him and rolls out. He’s able to find Loveland on a crossing route to convert. (CA+, 3, protection 0/2, JJ +2). On replay, Loveland(route+) feints deep when JJ breaks the pocket and then resumes the out, and that’s the separation.
M42	1	10	Pistol twin TE	1	2	2	3-4 over	8	Pass	Dumpoff	Corum	-1
First and ten PA out of pistol is max pro with two guys in the route; Purdue drops eight and doesn’t bite at all. JJ checks down to Corum, who is blown up immediately. (MA, 3, protection 1/1, JJ push, RPS -2)
M41	2	11	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	3-4 over	7	Run	Power GT	Corum	3
Corner blitz. Playside end dives inside of Keegan(+0.5), who takes care of it; Henderson(-1) tries to inside of this before popping outside late. He sort of obstructs the CB but the lateness means the lane for Corum is small and he gets whacked immediately. RPS -1.
M44	3	8	Gun trips TE	1	1	3	Exotic	5	Pass	Improv	Morris	Inc
Another drop eight zone that ends up with a DE on Barner(-1), who gets run through, and then Edwards(-1) ineffectually shoulder-blocks him. JJ looks like he's about to fire when he has to exit the pocket. He’s only got three in the route so not a whole lot of promise; he fires it at a covered Morris, which is sort of dangerous but whatever it’s a punt if it’s INTed. (MA, 0, protection 0/2, JJ push, RPS -1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 20-6, 11 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M45	1	10	Gun trips	1	2	2	5-1 base	6	Pass	Y cross	Wilson	Inc
Lot of pointing at the CB over Wilson like he’s going to blitz, but he never gives an indication he will and does not. Maybe it’s just Wilson saying I can torch this guy? He does; Purdue again rushes three but there are three guys at the LOS, uselessly, and so it’s basically just man coverage with no rush. JJ steps up and fires to Wilson; ball is at Wilson’s knees but should be caught; it isn’t. (CA, 2, protection 1/1, JJ +0.5, RPS +1)
M45	2	10	Gun 4-wide	1	1	3	5-1 over	6	Run	Split zone	Corum	2
This one is on Corum; Henderson(+2) clubs the playside DE and moves him across the hash. Barner(+0.5) just about misses the DE he’s kicking out as he tries to go upfield but gets enough of a shove in. Corum(-1) has a huge gap to work in against a safety; he decides to cut to the other side of the Henderson block, runs into Henderson, and gets a minimal gain. Just thundering right at the S is at least five and if he can juke him he’s off to the races.
M47	3	8	Gun 4-wide	1	1	3	Exotic	6	Pass	Dig	Johnson	Inc
Five sent this time; Michigan is letting guys through but gets JJ enough time; JJ comes off his first read to Johnson but as he does so his footwork gets sloppy and he fires a ball that’s well behind Johnson and would require a circus catch to bring in. (IN, 1, protection 2/2, JJ -1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 20-6, 9 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M38	1	10	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 3-4	7	Pass	Tunnel screen	Morgan	4
Yo-yo motion for Morgan; pops up, screen. Purdue flows fast; DE heads out with Barner(+0.5), who kicks out the DB on Morgan. Barnhart follows out and is sort of in the way but never really delivers a hit. Zinter(-1) should be able to step around his guy but doesn’t and he’s able to flow pretty much unimpeded and make a tackle. Morgan(+0.5) is able to grind out a couple YAC, which is amazing given his size. (CA, 3, screen, JJ push)
M42	2	6	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	3-4 over	7	Run	Split zone	Corum	3
CB blitz so this is +2 in box. Barner(+1) gets a great kickout since he’s hitting a very good DE charging inside. CB is wasted. Barnhart(+0.5) washes a guy down; that guy appears to hold Zinter as he tries to get out. Corum hits the hole but unblocked guy is unblocked. RPS -1.
M45	3	3	Gun trips	1	1	3	5-1 over	6	Pass	Pivot	Wilson	11
Wilson runs three steps of a slant and then changes direction; DB has to disconnect to run around two drags that threaten to have him hit his own players, open, easy throw, conversion. Alarming as Barnhart(-2) gets torched; if this isn’t open, sack. (CA, 3, protection 0/2, JJ +0.5, RPS +1)
O44	1	10	Ace twin TE	1	2*	2	Base 3-4	8	Run	Jet sweep	Morgan	44
Playside DE and LB are gone as they focus on Corum. Man corner on Morgan gets cut off by Johnson(+1) and Morgan(+2) just blazes by the CB trying to crack replace and Mr. Super Deep FS. RPS +3.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 27-6, 3 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O45	1	10	Gun TTB	1	2	2	3-4 over	8	Pass	Dig	Wilson	19
Four man rush, zone drop. Edwards(-1) gets a blitzing LB and gives a lot of ground fast; Keegan is looking for work and shoves that LB wide, allowing JJ to reset in the pocket and get this off, gold star. JJ fires a 20 yard rifle shot to Wilson. (CA, 3, protection 2/3, JJ +1)
O26	1	10	Gun 4-wide	1	1	3	5-1 over	6	Run	Split zone	Edwards	3
Another corner blitz makes this very difficult, as backside gaps get erased. Loveland(+0.5) harasses a DE shooting inside of his split zone block; Zinter(+0.5) and Barnhart(+0.5) double and move a DE. Edwards gets a crack, gets hit a three yards.. and gets three yards. -0.5. RPS -1.
O23	2	7	Gun trips TE1	1	1	3	3-4 over	7	Pass	Back shoulder wheel	Loveland	17
Fake tunnel, man coverage so Loveland’s guy is just in man coverage; JJ just casually uncorks a perfect back shoulder throw to Loveland, who casually brings it in. Dang. (DO, 2, protection 2/2, JJ +2)
O6	1	G	I-Form Big	1	3*	1	3-4 over	9	Run	Down G	Corum	3
Barner(+0.5) chips and climbs; Henderson(+0.5) takes advantage of that to seal the playside end in; Keegan(+0.5) kicks a LB. Bredeson(+0.5) gets a LB; Corum surges ahead. Zinter(+0.5) also did a good job on a guy trying to slant across his face.
O3	2	G	Goal line	1	4*	0	Goal line	11	Run	Down G	Corum	3
Zinter(-0.5) pulls and fires in a LB charging inside; he’d be better off passing that guy up and moving on but decisions are hard down here. Bredeson(+0.5) gets a kick; Corum(+2) could get TFLed but instead dismisses the LB and scores.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 34-6, 14 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M39	1	10	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	3-4 over	6.5	Run	Inside zone	Edwards	2
DE shoots inside of Barnhart but this looks like bad improv instead of a plan, Barnhart gets a pass. Edwards(+0.5) pops outside since there’s no edge; Johnson(-2) literally does not touch the CB as he expects an interior run and that guy tackles.
M41	2	8	Gun trips1	1	1	3	5-1 under	6	Pass	Stop	Morgan	24
LB blitzes and the DEs drop out; Edwards gets a cut on the LB that I am not quite minusing. It does give JJ enough time to survey and now they’re running zone beaters; Wilson runs a guy off and Morgan sits down just behind him; JJ fires it in. Morgan(+1) avoids a tackler and picks up an extra chunk. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, JJ +1)
O35	1	10	I-Form Big	1	3*	1	3-4 under	9	Run	Down G	Edwards	2
Purdue has a linebacker two yards off the LOS at the POA here so when Bredeson takes him on it’s a yard in the backfield and Edwards has to run up the backs of his OL. RPS -1.
O33	2	8	Gun TTB	1	1	3	5-1 over	6	Pass	Sack	N/A	-9
Henderson(-2) gets dunked on. No real hot options for JJ. (PR, N/A, protection 0/2, JJ push)
O42	3	17	Gun trips	1	1	3	Exotic	6	Pass	Dig	Morgan	Inc
Barnhart(-1) beat around the edge but is able to slow the DE enough to allow JJ to get a pass out, but it’s got to come out; guy looping around the outside is also coming. JJ does not have good options as it looks like everyone is well-covered and tries to get it to Morgan. Wish I had a replay; pass seems pretty accurate but Morgan doesn’t really get his hands up and it may be deflected by the defender. Punting. (MA, 1, protection ½, JJ push)
Drive Notes: Punt, 34-6, 10 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M43	1	10	Gun empty	1	1	3	3-4 under	5	Pass	Slot fade	Wilson	35
Wilson just runs by the guy trying to cover him and JJ lays it in perfectly. Wilson double-clutches this, making it look more difficult than it actually is. Just a three man rush. (DO, 3, protection 1/1, JJ +2)
O22	1	10	Gun 3-wide	1	2	2	3-4 over	7	Pass	Drag	Johnson	Inc
Purdue sends seven so always going to be a free guy. JJ starts backing up and throws while moving back; resulting pass is pretty low and very difficult to bring in. Against OSU I want JJ to stand in and take the hit, but I’m not dinging him for not doing so up 34-6. (MA, 1, protection 2/2, JJ push)
O22	2	10	Gun trips	1	2	2	3-4 over	7	Run	Split zone	Edwards	7
DE slants away; Keegan(+0.5) duly shoves him inside. Henderson(-1) climbs after a chip but doesn’t block anyone; he’s originally headed for the backside LB but stops and looks to the other guy. Bredeson(+0.5) gets a weird but sufficient split block on the DE and Edwards(+1) gets a gap because the playside LB plays this badly; he appears to be in man on Bredeson and is concerned he’ll go in the flat. Edwards hits the jets but gets ankle tackled.
O15	3	3	Gun 4-wide	1	2	2	5-1 over	6	Pass	Hitch	Wilson	11
M now anticipating the eight man zone and runs a beater, with Wilson sitting down between the two LBs dropping; JJ fires it in as one LB carries Loveland vertical before coming off of it and trying to close down the window. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, JJ +1)
O4	1	G	Gun trip TE	1	3	1	3-4 over	9	Run	Duo	Edwards	3
Nugent(+1) and Zinter(+1) blow out the nose with Nugent climbing to a LB. Keegan(+0.5) handles his guy; Barnhart(-0.5) gets slanted under and is unable to prevent his guy from impacting Edwards a yard downfield. He keeps pushing to near the goal line.
O1	2	G	Goal line	1	4*	0	Goal line	11	Run	Power	Edwards	1
Jones(+1) fires a DE down the line and provides the gap; Beetham(-1) goes too wide on a DE who is always playing to spill and narrowly avoids a holding call. That junk distracts both Bredeson and Zinter but Henderson(+0.5) put a dive-focused DT on the ground as well so Edwards can cut away and score.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 41-6, 4 min 4th Q.

[sticks head out] foo… football?

Yes?

can we talk about football?

YES!

McCarthy was off his usual standard.

Uh… was he?

He threw various passes that were not complete, so yes.

Fair point, but have you considered the passes that were complete?

JJ MCCARTHY

	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr			Reads
Game	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	GRADE!		RPOs	ZRs
East Carolina	6+	14(2)++++				5				2			91%	+20		0/0	0/0
UNLV	2	15++	1		1	1				1			95%	+12.5		0/0	1/3
Bowling Green	1	6+	1		1	1				3**	2**		61%	-3		0/0	2/2
Rutgers	3	13++(1)	3		1				1	3	1		79%	+12		0/0	3/4
Nebraska	3+	10+	1		1	1				1			94%	+13		0/1	3/3
Minnesota	1	11+(2)			1	1				3			80%	+8.5		2/2	3/3
Indiana	2	11+++(1)	2		2	3			1				94%	+15		0/0	3/4
MSU	5+	15(1)	1			2			1*	3			87%	+13		0/1	1/1
Purdue	6	18++(2)			2	8				4			86%	+21		0/0	0/0

(Run +/- is in the other chart; the above is solely a passing/decisions grade.)

You might be thinking "what?" or "lol"  but I've got charts so let's break it down. I filed the following incompletions as CAs or DOs:

• JJ has to come off Johnson because of ump interference and fires it to a covered Loveland, PBU.
• A beauty back shoulder throw to Edwards doesn't survive contact with the ground. That was a +2 DO.
• A throw to Barner is slightly behind the ideal spot but literally hits Barner in the arm.
• Morgan appears to drop a dig on the Corum holding fiasco.
• JJ throws it a little high to Johnson but it goes right through his hands.
• A cross to Wilson is at his knees and tough but catchable.

Meanwhile a number of incompletions ended up in the "marginal" bucket I use for throws that are catchable but could be better and also plays I'm just punting on. Most are obvious, IMO:

• JJ gets quick pressure on a three-man rush on third and eight against max pro and ends up rolling out and hurling it at a covered Morris. No good options, might as well shoot your shot, no success: MA, push in my grading.
• Another incompletion on a dig to Morgan where I can't really tell how good the throw is without a replay.
• JJ declines to get blown up against a 7-man rush when up 34-6 and drifts backward, resulting in a throw too low to Johnson.

The one where YMMV is the early incompletion to Loveland. It got an MA in my charting because I believe that Loveland's supposed to drift away from the center of the field and takes a step to do so, but then stops.

TE #18 in slot

General rule of thumb: against zone you sit down, against man you keep moving. I filed that as a route minus for him and MA for McCarthy.

The harshest possible version of my grading moves three of the CAs to MA (Barner, Johnson, Wilson incompletions) and two of the MAs to IN, resulting in a downfield success rate of 78% and a overall grade of something like +17. Since McCarthy had more volume in this game to rack up positives that would be a slight comedown from his average performance. But slight. Supporting data: PFF graded him out as an 85, which was his second-best performance in Big Ten play.

Let's go over some of the borderline cases. One genre of incompletion was balls zinged so fast I'm not quite sure what I think. This ball to Morgan holds Morgan up, but probably should because the safety is coming, and it might be high, but also doesn't it just go right through his hands?

My kingdom for a replay on that. I watched it 15 times, probably, before saying it was a good throw and the issue was Morgan. Ditto the would-be touchdown to Johnson, which was a bit high but definitely went through his hands:

I'm trying to parse out whether that throw was catchable and good or not. In the above two cases I sided with McCarthy; on this one I gave him the IN:

That's a near one-handed circus catch from Loveland on what should be a routine eight yard throw. I am generally more forgiving the longer the throw is and the more duress the QB is under. This doesn't get mitigated for either reason.

Our perspective on whether a throw was good or not tends to change based on whether it was complete. When a ball is low and it pops out it's natural to say "hey, that was low!"

When it's caught it's NBD:

This is not a discussion we've had to have much this year because of McCarthy's sheer dearth of non-routine catch opportunities provided. I think this was a tougher defense than Michigan had gone up against in terms of pass rush, and it seemed like Walters actually tried in this one instead of doing what he did against OSU—which was run zone a total of four times. I think both the WR corps and McCarthy played a game slightly under their usual benchmarks but not so far that it's unusual. We're talking about 9.1 YPA.

Okay but whyyyyy did the bad things haaaapen?

McCarthy's receiving corps was not bringing in some catchable balls and you can chalk some of that up to sheer lack of practice catching them. "Why isn't this at my facemask" is a question some folks asked.

I think a similar thing happened with McCarthy. Purdue's defensive ends and semi-frequent blitzing reduced McCarthy's comfort in the pocket, causing him to have to reset his feet and leading to some throws that were off. Sometimes McCarthy had to move; sometimes he just got happy feet. Here it looks like he's giving momentary thought to breaking the pocket, so his front foot steps left a bit; when he does throw he's not on his usual platform and the ensuing ball is wide:

Contrast that with this footwork in the pocket, where he resets but comes back to his normal foot alignment on his throws and hits Wilson in the #1:

All quarterbacks get less accurate as the pressure ramps up; I think in McCarthy's case he has mostly dealt with pressure by breaking the pocket and improvising instead of stuff like the above throw. Purdue was very disciplined about not providing escape lanes so JJ had to move around in the pocket to buy time and was occasionally off-platform when he did so.

The good news for Michigan is that the best edge rushers in the conference are either in the rear view mirror or on the team. Amongst edges with at least 100 rushes, Michigan has #2 and #4 per PFF ranking; they've played #1 (Jah Joyner), #3 (Aaron Lewis), #5 (Nic Scourton), and #8 (Kydran Jenkins). Chop Robinson, Jack Sawyer, and JTT are 6, 7, and 9—tough customers but not guys on another level from what Michigan has already seen. Michigan should be able to hold the fort and hopefully McCarthy will get a little more comfortable in this department as he gets more live-fire reps.

"Holding the fort" doesn't sound super encouraging.

Well… time for the other chart.

Offensive Line
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Henderson	6.5	4.5	+2	Up and down.
Keegan	6	4.5	+1.5	Whiffed a kickout early for a –2.
Nugent	4.5	1	+3.5	Solid except for a bad stunt pickup that led to a sack.
Zinter	6.5	1.5	+5	Another level from the rest of the line.
Barnhart	4.5	3	+1.5	Eh.
Jones	2		+2	Nice bonus OL time.
Persi				DNP
El-Hadi				DNP
Crippen				DNP
Bredeson	4		+4	Lots of kickouts, no errors.
Barner	5		+5	Metronome.
Loveland	1.5	6	-4.5	Three separate –2s.
Beetham		1	-1	In total this time.
Marshall				DNP
TOTAL	38.5	21.5	64%	Mendoza not hit! Alert! Alarm!
Backs
Player	+	-	T	Notes
McCarthy				Nope
Orji				DNP
Tuttle				DNP
Corum	4	2	+2	WOOP for TD.
Edwards	1.5	0.5	+1	Opportunities not there.
Mullings	2		+2	Smooth.
Hall				DNP.
TOTAL	7.5	2.5	+5	Make plays spot and not really making plays.
Receivers
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Johnson	1	2	-1	Weekly –2 whiff.
Wilson
Morris
Clemons				Not dumping on him for fourth and one.
Morgan	3.5		+3.5	Electric speed?
Moore
TOTAL	4.5	2	+2.5	Morgan going to be a player.
Metrics
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Protection	49	19	72%	-7 Barnhart, –5 Henderson, –2 Nugent, –2 Corum, –2 Edwards, –1 Barner
RPS	18	14	+4	The swings!

This was the OL's worst day of the year. Since This Is 2023 Michigan that means that things were average-ish. The raw numbers in the pass protection minuses may alarm but McCarthy had 37 attempts so our denominator is big. However… I did come up with more issues for the OTs than I remembered when doing the game column. It didn't affect Michigan too much because much of the time Purdue was in man coverage and JJ could just rip it out to Wilson—when Purdue went to a zone it was almost always dropping eight.

It is something to keep an eye on against Penn State, which has much better defensive backs.

Were they Distracted By The Noise?

Maybe? Or they were bored, lacked focus, etc. The way this game went—Michigan was up 17-0 in a flash—plus the fact that they were coming off a bye that was probably 90% focused on Penn State, plus a natural tendency to look ahead… it felt like they weren't quite as locked in as usual. An emblematic play was the first backside hinge block on power I've ever seen matter:

LT #73

It can only matter in a bad way. The day was just littered with stuff like that: two guys going to the same defender, failure to step around guys. Etc.

Loveland also had a pretty miserable day as a blocker, possibly a reason his snaps were reduced. He was the main issue with an early flare screen to Edwards; he set up to block a linebacker who was yards and yards away and not even looking at the play, allowing his man to blow the play up unimpeded. Here he appears to block the wrong guy on a crack sweep:

TE #18 to top

M pulls both the frontside G and T; Loveland needs to go to the DE Zinter just left. Otherwise, that happens. Those are both mental mistakes, too.

Another thing contributing to the blah was Purdue's unusual defense. It's sort of a 3-4 but they never play it like a 3-4 two gapping. They just have dudes for each gap and you can't run duo because you can't double team guys when they're head up on each OL. Michigan could have blown the doors off with exterior runs, JJ keeps, and the like, but they didn't care to.

Saving it for Penn State?

Yeah, sure. As mentioned, up 17-0. No reason to get McCarthy hit. Even so, this was an interesting RPS battle that was hugely in favor of Michigan early, when a preponderance of man coverage met yo-yo motion that ripped off huge chunks:

WR #8

Note that Purdue drops eight here with three guys standing around in the mesh zone, and, yeah, it looks like Michigan is running mesh with all the non-Morris receivers doing your usual man-beater stuff. But no! You've been had, Walters. RPS was 10 to 1 after the first two drives.

After the first two touchdowns, Walters began to fire back. Or… maybe he was just doing the same thing he wanted to do and Michigan started playing into it. This power GT gets swallowed up because it's asking Loveland to block Scourton when the 280-pound NFL DE is lined up inside of him and slanting away. Never going to happen:

TE #18 to bottom

But this is just the inverse of the Johnson play. Purdue is tearing hell for leather at this and any sort of waggle action, or keep, is ballgame. I'm sure Michigan knew this but what was the point of having JJ keeps on when you're up 14 ten minutes in and it's clear Purdue isn't going to move the ball?

In the second half Purdue started running "banjo" coverage so the yo-yo stuff into the flat got covered:

WR #1 in motion

McCarthy makes some chicken salad there but one reason the offense bogged down in the middle part of the game is that the easy "ol why u man cover"stuff that led to the first two touchdowns ran out of steam. Purdue also had a number of plays where they anticipated what Michigan was going to do and had excellent playcalls on. This first and ten play action is max pro with two guys in the route and meets an eight man zone drop:

Michigan had moved to a wristband on McCarthy by this point so I don't think you can chalk that up to anything more than good instincts on the part of Walters, or possibly some formation tendencies Michigan had put on film.

But this playcall-heavy style of defense tends to spring leaks. Thus Michigan's other major area of RPS wins, which was far less frequent but did not have to be. It was Any Perimeter Run Constraint. Both the Johnson end-around and the Morgan jet sweep saw Purdue front seven defenders completely sell out on interior runs. Johnson's:

Morris actually blows his block on #13 but it doesn't matter since he has eyes only for Corum. Morgan's is just blitheringly wide open.

Purdue DE #5

They could have done this a lot more if they wanted to.

The running backs do not appear to be Making Plays.

No, not really. Maybe the best run of the day did not come from Corum or Edwards. We didn't see a whole lot from Mullings but this one is going on his season preview so you can have it now as well:

That's the kind of thing where I pull out the minus stick if you hop outside a set edge and get hewed down for two yards; a guy like Mullings is going to run over the free linebacker and get a solid chunk every time. But he feels the bounce is there and he's right so he gets the plus stick. Carrot, probably.

I decided the failed 4th and one was not anything Mullings could reasonably do something about, FWIW.

Meanwhile, Edwards had another day of iffy blocking in front of him; I did not find much, if anything, to ding. Poor Damn Donovan just keeps eating plays where he doesn't have the chance to use his burst. I hypothetically like the idea of lead stretch with him but Michigan ran it once in this game and had it… except for Mullings and Barnhart blocking the same guy:

RT #52

If Barnhart peels back for the other LB Edwards is one on one with a safety. He just hasn't had the opportunities to hit the jets this year, largely through no fault of his own.

I did clip a Corum run that I hope clarifies my complaint about Edwards from the MSU game. Compare Edwards against Cal Haladay…

https://mgoblog.com/content/upon-further-review-2023-offense-vs-msu

…to what Corum does here:

Those are both runs designed to get outside that aren't coming off. Edwards never gets vertical and loses two yards. Corum does and gains five. To be fair, Corum did the bad thing in this game on the busted crack sweep were Loveland cracked the wrong guy.

Edwards's big contribution was on the first drive when Purdue did the Saquon-McCray thing:

One reason this did not happen more is that PSU never again had two linebackers on the field when Edwards was in the game. This worked out fine for them because Michigan just can't get Edwards going on the ground.

Corum, meanwhile, did not break anything huge but played well. I enjoyed him laying the boom on Michigan's second drive:

He also dusted a linebacker to cap Michigan's scoring. I have another clip that I think indicates he's not the open field terror he was a year ago:

I keep waiting for him to cause a dude to go yard sale, and alas.

Receivers?

Before we get to the chart: while I've dinged Loveland for his blocking in this game I would like to point out that he's real, real good as a receiver. Let's go back to the McCarthy improv play and focus on Loveland:

TE #18 second from right

He's covered. If JJ just throws it to him there's a decent chance of a breakup. So he threatens deep, as you often see when a QB breaks the pocket, and then gets back horizontal to create the separation that converts the first down. Also he had spectacularly caught the errant hitch embedded above until the CB raked the ball out. Also, very casual back shoulder fade:

So smooth that you forget how good that is.

Also, Purdue just didn't have the horses to play man against Roman Wilson. Every time he got a matchup he won it. Some of it was candy from a baby stuff:

WR #1

What is that guy doing? He's flipping all the way around. Why? I have no earthly idea. He's a true freshman three-star. I guess that's why.

Meanwhile, some other guy:

WR #1 in slot

Just no chance.

 

	THIS WEEK					THIS YEAR
Player	Uncb	Circus	Tough	Routine		Uncb	Circus	Tough	Routine
Johnson	1	0/2	1/2	1/1		5	2/5	3/4	18/19
Wilson			0/1	9/9		1	1/5	3/4	29/29
Morris		0/1	1/1	1/1		1	0/3	1/1	5/6
Moore						3		1/1	2/2
Clemons						1			3/3
Morgan			0/1	2/3			1/1	0/1	9/11
O'Leary									1/1
Loveland	2	0/1	1/1	3/3		4	0/1	3/3	20/22
Barner				0/1		2	0/1	2/2	15/16
Bredeson									2/2
English									1/1
Klein									1/1
Corum				2/2		1	0/1		8/8
Edwards			1/2	2/2				2/4	15/16
Mullings									1/1
Hall
Stokes

Routes: Loveland +-, Morris +, Barner +

A bit more detritus in the circus/tough columns but we generally want about 2/3s of tough ones brought in and Michigan was 4/8, so a catch or two off.

You have any Weird Tricks to improve the Purdue defense?

Recruit this umpire.

guy in stripes

Man knows how to defeat mesh.

Block of the week?

Ladarius Henderson shot this guy back three yards by himself:

Heroes?

Well, McCarthy despite the minor hiccups. Roman Wilson was uncoverable. Barner on the ground, Loveland in the air. Zinter.

Maybe not so heroic?

Loveland on the ground. RBs are not making plays.

What does it mean for Penn State and Beyond?

JJ is better than fine. On review this was not much of a step down, if any, and that's in a tougher pressure environment.

The tackles are iffy in pass pro against top-tier players. Iffy isn't terrible. You can live with iffy. –12 minuses between the two guys when both ends are very good and JJ drops back to pass 37 times is liveable. I do think Michigan's going to have to chip and/or leave guys in with some frequency against PSU/OSU.

Getting late for the idea that the 2023 backs can be the 2022 backs again. At this point they kind of are who they are.

Don't read too much into the lack of ground game here, though. Weird defense that made it impossible to run Michigan's bread and butter; keeps were turned off; team had an understandable lack of focus.

Roman Wilson is fast. Yup.

So is Semaj Morgan. Little guy was shot out of a cannon on the jet sweep.