alas [Bryan Fuller]

Unverified Voracity Is Mostly About The SWAC Comment Count

Brian March 3rd, 2020 at 3:41 PM

Sponsor Note. Let's say you've cloned a hundred duck-sized horses and want people to fight them. That sounds like something with a lot of legal complications. Is cloning… within the city… that ain't legal either? What happens if someone gets hurt? When someone gets hurt, more like it. It's a tough balance between the incredible appeal of finding out whether you can beat 100 duck-sized horses in a fight and the potential to be sued into the ground.

Well, have I got the guy for you.

hoeglaw_thumb[1]

Richard Hoeg knows this stuff, backwards and forwards. He's a business lawyer from the law factory who can tell you whether or not you should proceed with your idea. (Even if he says no you clearly should.) He'll get you set up with a legal framework to cope with the inevitable disasters if you decide to proceed (which you clearly will). And insofar as anyone can be protected from the law while running a business that is essentially cockfighting between miniaturized charismatic megafauna and humans, you will be.

What other lawyer can say that?

SNACKS! Sometimes there's a thing that gets put in your twitter feed 20 times and every time you click on it. This is one of those things:

Jackson State was super efficient at feeding Snacks shots; he got four up in his two minutes. This led to a Kenpom glitch: Snacks finishes his career with 82% usage and, uh, took 137% of JSU shots when he was on the floor?

image

A legendary Kenpom page.

You may remember Snacks from the quintessential Tacko Fall reaction video:

Someone's gotta hire the play by play guy. Anyone who can exclaim "SNACKS" like that needs to be doing the NCAA tournament.

[After THE JUMP: distressing times at Arkansas-Pine Bluff.]

WHAT IS GOING ON AT ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF? Your author was perusing the box score of this game and noticed that Jackson State's opponent played literally every scholarship player. Then he clicked on UAPB's Kenpom page and recoiled in horror. Do not show this to Craig Ross, he will have a stroke:

image

13 different players get at least 10% of UAPB minutes and a total of 19 guys have gotten in the game for the, uh, Golden Lions. UAPB is dead last nationally in offense; hey have a guy with 28% usage who shoots 42/21. The SWAC is wild.

Matt Painter may agree but still doesn't want to play them. Via Matt Norlander, Matt Painter was one of the main drivers of the Big Ten's 20-game schedule:

Purdue coach Matt Painter championed the cause in the spring of 2017 at the Big Ten coaches' meetings. He had to convince some in the league to join the offensive. The biggest reason for going to 20 league games was not explicitly to up the chances for at-large quota, but also to accommodate the Big Ten Network's carriage of game inventory and to lock in/protect geographical rivalries. That meant Indiana and Purdue would play twice every season in perpetuity. Same for Michigan-Michigan State and Illinois-Northwestern. …

Painter also tried to show that how trading two league games for lesser-attended "buy" games against Quad 3/4 opponents was optimal. Take the two worst nonconference games off your schedule, replace them with game 19 and 20 in the Big Ten. On the whole this will lift the conference. There were mockups and simulations of seasons, hypothetical schedules with opponents ranked 250th or worse vs. subbing in those two other Big Ten games. Comparisons of 20-game Big Ten schedules vs. 18, showing trajectories and taking into account a forthcoming metric that would be changing how teams were evaluated.

The league has stuck to that plan, with approximately the same number of meaningful nonconference games as there were before the change. 12 Big Ten schools are in the top 20 in Kenpom's SOS measure.

There's still a little work to do when it comes to buy games. Michigan should not have played Houston Baptist, which is predictably awful.

Not a good combination. Donovan Peoples-Jones finishes near the bottom of this list of receivers ranked by how many targets were accurate:

Combine this fact with Peoples-Jones's nearly unprecedented vertical:

Michigan wasted that guy. Silver lining is that replacing a senior QB might not be as much of a problem as it might otherwise be. Shea Patterson is not expected to be drafted.

Mayfield coming. Nick Baumgardner on instate NFL draft prospects for next year; he spends a lot of time talking about Jalen Mayfield:

But during his head-to-head reps, Mayfield gave Young everything he wanted — and more — for the bulk of the game. Mayfield saw roughly a dozen head-up reps against Young during the first three quarters and didn’t allow a pressure during that time. Michigan used a running back to chip Young just twice during those reps, as most of Mayfield’s work against the likely future first-round pick was in a one-on-one capacity. Young’s first pressure of the game came with 3:35 to go in the third quarter in a rep against Runyan. Young beat Mayfield with an inside rush during the first play of the fourth quarter, his first and only clean win against the redshirt freshman that day.

Mayfield’s an athlete with great size and long arms. A 6-foot-5 tackle, Mayfield arrived at Michigan in 2018 at around 270 pounds. He wasn’t carrying sloppy weight and his natural strength impressed Michigan’s coaching staff almost from the jump, even though he was not an early enrollee. Michigan bulked him up north of 300 pounds by the start of his second year, but not enough to compromise his natural quickness and flexibility. Young tried to explode by Mayfield off the edge a number of times in this game and … found that task to be challenging.

Baumgardner throws in MSU's Elijah Collins amongst four Michigan guys, probably because he couldn't write about all Michigan guys.

The big lineup: slapdash. Via Brendan Quinn, Franz Wagner on what happened when Michigan went big against Wisconsin:

“Obviously it’s a new lineup but with a lot of big bodies out there I think we should take advantage of that on both ends of the floor,” Wagner said. “We didn’t do that. We wanted to switch a lot. We’ll look at the film. We didn’t talk. Nobody knows who to guard. That’s how (the Badgers) got their shots."

Howard felt he didn't have a choice with only two primary ballhandlers available, citing potential foul trouble. The coach has changed; the autobench remains.

Quinn also notes that the small lineup outscored Wisconsin by two in the last 7 minutes.

I'll believe it when I see it. The new Big Ten commissioner is a hockey dad from Minnesota who's talking up the sport as a potential growth area:

“I probably have seen more hockey games than I have football and basketball games in my life,” Warren said, noting that he has already attended men’s games at Ohio State and Michigan, and he will be at a Notre Dame game this weekend. “I love what it stands for, and when I came here I made it clear that hockey is a priority to me. We’re in the Midwest. We’re a legitimate hockey conference, and when you look at our schools, they’re hockey schools.”

Warren added that he feels the Big Ten has the nation’s best hockey facilities, and the goal is to create a conference that dominates college hockey. He said the plans to add staff in the coming months that will grow the “panache” of Big Ten hockey.

“It’s a sport I love. It’s a sport I admire. I love the student-athletes. I know what it has meant to my family,” Warren said. “But I want to make sure I have seasoned veterans around me who are hockey people and who can help me grow Big Ten hockey.”

Big Ten hockey has been a tad disappointing on the ice; off the ice it's been a debacle. The original playoff format was single-elimination at a neutral site, which got scrapped after the first couple tournaments were so barren they could be NCAA regionals. The compromise return to home ice is still kind of embarassing, with single-game semis and finals largely because some of the buildings teams play in have to host other stuff.

Meanwhile television access is worse for every actual Big Ten team, and the one team that's not really in the league has a TV/streaming setup that puts the rest of the conference to shame. Every ND game gets streamed. The feed is crystal clear. You can see the puck. Professionals produce the broadcast.

Big Ten games have the same quality internet games had 15 years ago, and they're staffed by students. The camera work is appallingly bad; more than one Michigan goal was scored off-screen this year. ND broadcasts are free; the Big Ten charges for a substandard product.

If you want to fix Big Ten hockey, fix that.

I didn't mean that thing I said, and now I'm going to repeat it. USC athletic director Mike Bohn told a podcast that "everything is on the table" after being asked whether USC would consider changing conferences or going independent. That is the Pac-12 equivalent of Michigan saying "we're open to anything" and naturally raised eyebrows. Bohn got enough pushback that he clarified that USC wasn't going anywhere:

"The answer is no," Bohn said when contacted by CBS Sports on Thursday. "Why would we do that? We've got 21 sports here. You know the drill. There would be no way for us to do that."

Good job! Stop talking. You have not stopped talking.

"Now, that being said, if the unexpected happened and NBC said, 'Hey we want to partner you guys with Notre Dame' … then that's different.'"

People are just in charge of things.

Makes more sense now. FOIAs for the Zavier Simpson traffic incident have returned a video of the police interaction:

Simpson does not appear to be intoxicated and probably wasn't even driving the car. It doesn't appear that the cops were covering anything up. Suspension warranted; it's nothing in the larger scheme.

Etc.: Princeton sucks so much. Strauss Mann working on his flaws, such as they are. Football players can now wear 0. 0 seems like a fullback number. Give it to Ben Mason. Philippe Lapointe features in an article about NHL offspring in the BCHL. You cannot get an AD to understand he has buckets of money because his salary depends on him not understanding it. Red Berenson still gets on the ice. John Beilein on Michigan's exiting seniors.

Comments

lilpenny1316

March 3rd, 2020 at 4:19 PM ^

After reading the article on the exiting seniors, I really hope Beilein is in attendance Thursday night.  That was one of the most unlikely runner-ups in NCAA history and we have Beilein and those kids to thank for it.

ehatch

March 3rd, 2020 at 5:11 PM ^

It's no surprise that BTN is bad at covering hockey. They are appallingly bad at every sport. The coverage of the Big Ten Swimming Championships was dreadful -- They tried to squeeze 4 days of action into 90 minutes. The result was predictably bad as their coverage of the events not on the final day was the opposite than helpful as they showed the first and last lap of every event (a results page of places 1-8 would have been far more helpful).  And swimming is an easy sport to cover -- point the camera at the pool and leave it (but they had extreme close ups of swimmers in 6th place). Their coverage of gymnastics isn't quite as bad, but they don't show the score. My wife, who is obssessed with Friday Night Heights on the SEC network, sees multiple meets per week with a score constantly updating after every performance. The BTN has been around for 10+ years and they still have no idea how to actually cover sports. 

bronxblue

March 3rd, 2020 at 5:12 PM ^

Patterson wasn't particularly good this year, but I will continue to push back against the idea that DPJ had a disappointing career at UM simply because he had mediocre QBs.  Lots of elite WRs find ways to be more impactful than him, and he dropped enough passes and failed to get meaningful separation enough from corners that some of the blame needs to fall on him.  I want him to be successful in the pros and think he will, but he has basically the same draft grade at Patterson per NFL.com (yes, backup/ST is better than end of roster, but there are also fewer spots for a QB to make a team than an athletic WR), and I assume that takes into account his combine numbers.

yossarians tree

March 4th, 2020 at 1:40 PM ^

I still remember a play during the '18 season (forget the opponent). Michigan inside the 10 yard line and DPJ split wide right. He runs straight, two yards deep into the end zone, and Shea throws a high back shoulder pass. Donovan pulls up, leaps very high, and snatches the ball out of the air with ease. Virtually unstoppable play. Never saw it again.

Teeba

March 3rd, 2020 at 6:19 PM ^

Brian just wanted to push his narrative that Shea was inaccurate. That may well be, but I’d like to see the results for the other wide receivers. Without that data, it’s just lazy Monday morning Quarterbacking.
For whatever reason, Shea developed a rapport with Ronnie Bell. Maybe DPJ just isn’t a very good route runner. If he’s inconsistent in his breaks or timing, that could explain a lot.

bronxblue

March 3rd, 2020 at 9:18 PM ^

And by "make excuses for Shea" you mean "agree he wasn't great but also push back at the idea he submarined a 5* WR who never cracked 100 yards receiving in a game once in his career".

Again, I watched all of these games.  DPJ showed flashes of talent but was inconsistent, and pointing that out doesn't make someone an idiot no matter how much you wish it did.

Dr. Funkenstein

March 4th, 2020 at 8:09 AM ^

thanks for this.....yeah DPJ never really got separation, was banged up most of the time, and you never felt that went the ball did go up between him and another guy that he was coming down with it.....Some NFL team is going to have to take a shot on him based on his numbers, but I'd be real wary given his lack of performance over the years....Nothing against the young man either, was a great representative for the team and university and appears to be a high character man....Just assessing his on field performance

Carpetbagger

March 4th, 2020 at 10:00 AM ^

I generally try to make my comments respectful of guys like him or don't make them at all too. I have 100% respect for DPJ the man. He, by all accounts, was a good teammate, good student, and represented the university with class and dignity. I'd let my theoretical daughter date the guy; when she was 50.

But on the field, there were plays to be made that other players with his god given talent and hard work gave him, and he left them on the field. I'm not saying Shea was a great QB, because the guy couldn't hit the broadside of the barn sometimes, but more than once the play was DPJs to make and he didn't make it.

stephenrjking

March 3rd, 2020 at 11:02 PM ^

Well, I mean, Brian actually HAS data. He charts every play until Michigan plays Ohio State. Here's the UFR of the Indiana game if you want to look. 

You may disagree with his conclusion, but the idea that he's just "pushing a narrative" is absurd. Nobody has examined this date more thoroughly than he has. You may disagree with his conclusion (I lean more toward bronx's synthesis of the two parties) and that's fine. But the "laziness" here is not on Brian. 

Here's what Brian's chart shows: As of Indiana, DPJ was targeted 41 times. He is logged with 29 catches (I think this number is off by one; he made 3 catches against OSU and 1 against Bama. It's possible that Brian chose not to count a touch pass sweep or something, or it's possible that he missed a play). DPJ caught 26 of 27 passes that Brian judged to be routine or of moderate difficulty. He caught 3 of 7 circus catch balls and there were 7 uncatchable passes. 

For comparison, Tarik Black* was targeted 43 times. He caught 22: 20 of 24 passes that were routine or moderate, 2 of 4 circus catch passes, and saw 15 attempts that were uncatchable. The most targeted receiver, as of Indiana, was Ronnie Bell: he was targeted 61 times. He caught 37 of them. He caught 35 of 42 passes that were routine or moderate, made 2 of 9 circus catches, and was missed by 10 uncatchable passes. 

That's data. What does it mean? Honest people can disagree. Personally, I'm more frustrated by the targets than anything else. These stats took place after the Indiana game, yet Michigan's most targeted receiver was Ronnie Bell (who is good! But not Nico and not, we think, as athletically gifted as DPJ), and he was targeted less than 6 times a game. Michigan threw 31 times a game and ran 38. Yeah, the OL was good, and yeah, Harbaugh's a running guy. But they had, theoretically, the tools for a blazing offense, and didn't use them. It's fair to ask why, and it's not unreasonable to conclude that they didn't trust Shea to carry the offense in that volume. 

*I thought about using Nico here, but one of Nico's most important tools was drawing penalties, and I'm not sure how Brian charts those. Here's his line anyway: 48 targets. 33 catches--29 of 32 moderate or routine, 4 of 7 circus, 9 uncatchable. PIs unknown. 

Dr. Funkenstein

March 4th, 2020 at 8:13 AM ^

This can be both be true along with the fact that DPJ underperformed.....Nico's the best example, although he's a bit taller he doesn't have the same measureables beyond that...Despite a lack of targets, Nico was clearly the best receiver on the team and established himself in spite of terrible QB play and early season gameplanning....DPJ....ehhhh....maybe he's another DK Metcalf.....

Mongo

March 4th, 2020 at 11:07 AM ^

This "data" is one man's opinion (Brian) based on his watch of the film.  If you go to Jon Jansen's recent interview of Coach Gattis ... that was not the OC's take for the season.  His view was Shea was putting the ball where the play called for it but the receivers either were not in the right place or did not compete hard enough to make a play ... it was the WRs that were inconsistent. 

Folks need to go listen to the podcast as that is what Michigan's OC said after he had completed his "self scout" of the film. The Gattis quote from the podcast that shocked me was: 

"a telling stat for the season was that out of our 203 incomplete passes, 125 were catchable balls. Guys need to go up and make plays, catch the balls." 

Personally, I think something negative happened in the WR room during the year.  Black enters the transfer portal and his roomy (true-Blue) DPJ bolts early to the NFL (after a injury impacted lackluster season) is evidence that something just wasn't right.  Yeah, I agree Shea was not the best QB, but being 10 points below his historic average completion rate wasn't all on him as both Black and DPJ were way to inconsistent.  No coincidence that Nico and Bell got targeted way more often as they were in the right spot and open.

When I re-watched DPJ in the OSU game, he just looked like he had already checked-out.  And then he makes only one catch in the bowl game.  It was just odd for DPJ to finish like that.  I hope he can turn it around in the NFL as he seems like a really good dude.  That 44.5 vertical is crazy.

Carpetbagger

March 4th, 2020 at 11:19 AM ^

I don't agree with the checked out part, at least not in the 3rd. After a couple series where Patterson put the ball on a couple different receivers hands only for them to drop them, 3 of which (iirc) were DPJ drops, the camera cut to DPJ and you could see the pain clear as day. No one wanted those plays back more than that guy.

GoBlueGladstone

March 4th, 2020 at 2:08 PM ^

I'm squarely in Camp Gattis, generally, but this also could be some understandable spin in defense of his (and his future) Qb and his own playcalling. He's well within his rights in defending Shea and that's probably good for the offense and the program, externally and internally.

But, Shea is what the film says he is and that was proven out in the throwing drills at the Combine: Some very good; a preponderance of OK and some stink. 

Both opinions are defendable on a certain level if we're all being honest with each other, but consider the context is all I am saying.

J.

March 3rd, 2020 at 8:07 PM ^

Yes; the numbers are estimates, and they don't account for somebody who takes every shot while he's on the floor.

My favorite part of this -- Brian, how did you miss this? -- is that he's somehow shooting 137% of the team's shots while he's on the floor, but that balloons to 142% in conference games. :)

MeanJoe07

March 3rd, 2020 at 7:13 PM ^

Trying to run some errands and stock up on Crest. A bunch of menu items are missing from Taco Bell.  Fuck bullies. Has this  meeting started yet? This Benny guy is fun.  She had guy hands.

Harlick

March 3rd, 2020 at 10:14 PM ^

How is it Shea's fault that DPJ was an overrated 5 star recruit?  He isn't quick in and out of breaks, he doesn't run good routes, how was his talent wasted.   He probably realized he was going to be passed on the depth chart by Johnson, Collins and bell and left early.   His overall combine scores tell the story,  slow ten yard split, the lack of production against top opposing talent doesn't describe a wasted talent.   If he develops into a NFL all pro I will agree that his talent was wasted, but right now I don't see it. 

stephenrjking

March 3rd, 2020 at 10:38 PM ^

The B1G hockey tv situation is an abominable disaster. From the lack of coverage to the bizarre face-off times (it's still daylight in winter and I'm working when an early game starts at 5 pm central here) to the shockingly vacant arenas that show up on camera, the B1G hockey transition has been as bad as one could have imagined.

And I'm not just piling on something I opposed the whole time. I was in favor of it. I was wrong. I'm very, very glad that I get to see Michigan in person at Mariucci occasionally, but that is a small positive side effect of a very, very negative event. 

I hope the commish is legit. It helps, a lot, that he actually appears to be a fan. 

Durham Blue

March 4th, 2020 at 12:54 AM ^

I just want to get back to the days where we could count on a Michigan QB to stand in the pocket with confidence and rifle consistent, nice passes to receivers.  We've had glimpses of it since Harbaugh arrived but nothing long term.  To be clear I am not putting the onus completely on the QB.  Coaching and route runners have responsibility as well.  We just need to be better.

lhglrkwg

March 4th, 2020 at 5:38 AM ^

I have no faith in the BTN's ability to improve hockey. The Big Ten seems to treat the BTN like they're a bunch of rich guys and the BTN is just a cash generating investment. No one seems to actually care whether it is any good or not because the money is flowing. I feel like it doesn't even occur to these guys that maybe they should try to put together a quality product for people to watch

Go Blue 80

March 4th, 2020 at 7:04 AM ^

I think the college basketball schedule overall is a few games too long.  DPJ's combine numbers do not translate to the field.  It takes him a while to get to top speed and he does not have a ton of lateral agility.

Ziff72

March 4th, 2020 at 9:14 AM ^

Just a small observation.   We have 2 football themed points in this post.  We have Shea is inaccurate and Jalen Mayfield may be awesome.   14 comments about the football portions so far and 14 about the negative part and 0 about the positive part.   Our brand is still spot on.

Ziff72

March 4th, 2020 at 9:28 AM ^

I am on board with the Mayfield hype train.  To play at that level as a R-FR is very promising.  He has the measurables and play to become a 1st rd pick.   Becoming a 1st rd pick is pretty daunting.   I was curious who else people thought could be potential 1st rd picks.   Here are my most likely from the current roster based on potential and trajectory. 

1. Mayfield

2. Nico

3. Mcgrone

4. Dax

5. Ambry