a good shot [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Unverified Voracity Finds The Spot Comment Count

Brian January 14th, 2021 at 12:50 PM

The locations. Five Fifth Factor Plots, Michigan's shot locations against the Badgers:

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Now delete five of those midrange shots (one of them was the long Zeb Jackson make) because they came from the Kenpom Kids. Hot damn. UW entered this game forcing midrange shots at a top-20 rate and allowing just 52% at the rim. Michigan hit 70% at the rim and got to the rim 23 times.

As I've said before, the really exciting thing about this team is the sustainability of the things they're good at. They get to the rim against everyone and convert there; they force a ton of horrible shots. They are currently 8th at forcing long twos and eighth at defending them. Wisconsin: 6/12 at the rim, 5/25(!) on farther twos.

That's how you can have the best 2PT in the country and a top five FTA/FGA rate.

[After THE JUMP: charts of less auspicious character]

Meanwhile down the road. MSU cannot get to the rim. Shot chart from their game against Purdue:

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That is seven shots at the rim.

Also in what's-going-on-at-MSU, the closing minutes of that game featured a Ben Carter level tactical decision. Brendan Quinn:

On the other end, though, Williams was feasting on an undersized front line of Hauser and Malik Hall.

At some point, it seemed, coach Tom Izzo would send in a big man to put some size on Williams.

When the final minute arrived and Purdue muscled its way into position to win, it seemed glaringly obvious.

On the last possession — a baseline inbound with six seconds left and the Spartans clinging to a one-point lead — it was downright alarming that the same lineup was out there.

The Spartans stayed small.

Of course, Williams slipped free on a well-designed inbound play by coach Matt Painter and flipped a shot up and in. Purdue 55, Michigan State 54.

Joey Hauser checked Williams for most of the second half.

Stu Douglass talks to Duncan Robinson. Robinson was coached by Juwan Howard with the Heat, of course, and came away thinking the same things most people do:

No whammies. I'm checking out NBA Draft articles with the air of a Press Your Luck contestant these days, dreading the moment Hunter Dickinson shows up on them or Wagner pops into the lottery. Mostly good news so far, from the perspective of Michigan fans. The Draft Express guys updated the status of the draft class a week ago, including a section on emerging guys. Dickinson did not draw a mention. Franz Wagner didn't, either, but that could not and did not last. Givony and Schmitz on guys creating buzz:

After a slow start to the season offensively, Wagner has blossomed in Big Ten play, shooting the ball effectively from the perimeter, scoring opportunistically inside the arc and becoming a key playmaking cog in Michigan's well-spaced and highly efficient offense.

Defensively is where Wagner has made the biggest strides, though, as he's shown the ability to contain guards, wings, forwards and even some big men thanks to his terrific size, high activity level, outstanding basketball awareness and textbook technique. While not all that fleet of foot and still lacking a degree of physicality, he's always in the right spots off the ball and is often one step ahead of his opponents defending one on one because of how quickly he anticipates and reacts to what's going on around him. …

While he's never going to be a primary creator due to his just-decent athleticism and projects as a complementary player at the NBA level … jump shot is his swing skill as a prospect.

They also suggest that it "wouldn't be shocking" if he returned for his junior year since he's still younger than a lot of college freshmen like Jalen Suggs and Evan Mobley. (Also Dickinson.) Dickinson did crack their top 100, but only at #82. Livers is #90.

DX also put out a 2022 mock draft ten days ago that has Caleb Houstan 8th and Wagner 48th. (Also Malik Hall? For some reason?) It's early yet but I can't imagine Moussa Diabate is going to get excluded from many more 2022 mocks. Dickinson is still absent from that one, FWIW.

Meanwhile Sam Vecenie is higher on Dickinson:

This tweet was met with a handful of Michigan fans imploring Vecenie to use the Men In Black device on himself, as is right and just. Vecenie did not. Dickinson checked in 39th in his Mock Draft 2.0. (Wagner is 36th.)

BONUS: Other familiar names on Vecenie's mock include #17 Greg Brown, #20 Josh Christopher, #24 Ayo Dosunmu, #42 Ron Harper Jr, #45 Luka Garza, #46 Aaron Henry, #50 Joe Wieskamp, #54 Trayce Jackson-Davis, and #57 Marcus Carr.

Arizona State freshman Marcus Bagley checks in at #19, so Bobby Hurley has two first round picks and two senior guards on his roster and is currently 4-5, slotting in just behind St. Bonaventure on Kenpom.

Good luck with that. Kentucky basketball players collectively decided to kneel pregame in the aftermath of the insurrection at the capitol. Also Kentucky's not real good this year. Kentucky fans + politics + losing = crazy, and yuuuup:

The Kentucky basketball protest was met with resentment in some corners of the state.

A small-town sheriff named John Root who described Kentucky as “the Hillbilly State” took to social media to light Kentucky gear on fire and demand that the university “get a real man to lead the cats and a real team.”

Members of the Knox County Fiscal Court in southern Kentucky unanimously signed a resolution calling for Kentucky to defund UK.

“The University of Kentucky receives millions and millions of dollars every year of hardworking Kentucky taxpayers’ money,” Judge Executive Mike Mitchell told the Times-Tribune. “I think they need to be held accountable for their actions if they can’t manage it no better than that.”

I encourage Kentucky to fire Calipari and hire… uh… Ron White? Sure, Ron White. That's a Kentucky coach we can all get behind.

Sickos content. I mean I was always going to embed this:

The number of games with multiple disastrous long snaps is impressive.

Chase Winovich update! Seems to be doing well out there.

Keep it here for all your critical Chase Winovich twitter embeds.

A bright spot in football, I guess? PFF's Seth Galina thought that if OSU played their base stuff against Alabama they'd get obliterated. They did, and they did.

We spent the whole week asking — nay, begging — Ohio State to give help to its cornerbacks against Alabama’s receivers. If the Buckeyes could just spend a few practices reinforcing the two-high coverages they already have in their playbook, though rarely used, it would show the Crimson Tide different looks and confuse them even a little bit to at least not put up 52 points. Or, to counter the incredible speed and talent Alabama puts out at receiver, use your nickelback instead of your Sam linebacker to get better matchups.

Ohio State, as we now know, stuck to its guns and surrendered 52 points. Alabama put on a clinic of attacking the specific ways the Buckeyes play one-high in their base personnel. Whether it was man or Cover 3, Ohio State had no shot.

Galina breaks down the various ways in which OSU did the thing they can do almost all of the time—run relatively simple stuff with superior players—when that was never going to work against Alabama. A crack in the façade, if Michigan can translate their super-fast WRs to on-field production.

Etc.: Michigan lands 18th in Perfect Game's baseball preseason poll. Indiana (14) and OSU (23) also make it. Check out Bobby Loesch's Hyball for all your Iowa/Michigan basketball content. One of the more ridiculous examples of NCAA overreach you'll see. Dickinson checks in 5th on Jon Gasaway's list of the top 25 players in CBB. Michigan #4 on Matt Norlander' power rankings, which were released before the Wisconsin win (and Texas's loss to Texas Tech). Going to be #3 on these virtually everywhere soon.

Jeff Borzello talks to Bart Torvik and Jordan Sperber (and some coaches) about whether the eye test has any place in tournament selection. The data people say no; I agree. Matt Beniers had a standout WJC.

Comments

stephenrjking

January 14th, 2021 at 1:54 PM ^

Athleticism includes things like speed, explosiveness, lateral agility, leaping.

Watch highlights of, say, Zion Williamson. At Duke he even had some statistical similarities to Wagner this year, though a better scorer. But in athleticism there is no comparison.

Wagner is just not very athletic. He’s good at other stuff, but not that. And that will be fine for his role in the Association. 

543Church

January 14th, 2021 at 3:18 PM ^

I agree with the Caris comparison to Wagner, they seem similar to me, at least on the court.   Nobody ever said "Caris Levert is a good player but I worry he won't succeed in the NBA due to his lack of athleticism".

But the only way to be sure I guess is to some kind of skills test, which I assume the NBA does prior to the draft.

stephenrjking

January 14th, 2021 at 4:08 PM ^

I'm not trying to denigrate Wagner for not having Zion's athleticism; I'm using an easy-to-grasp example to respond to someone who was asking what about Wagner suggested a lack of athleticism. Showing, not telling. Wagner does not have plus athleticism, and the easiest way to understand that is to watch someone who does. 

As others point out, Wagner has plenty of tools that he uses well. And he's not a statue. But his path forward in the NBA is not beating guys with his explosiveness or his lateral agility, and there's no sense in pretending otherwise. 

bronxblue

January 14th, 2021 at 2:52 PM ^

I mean, if the barometer for athleticism is a guy who's 6'7", 285 lbs who can dunk from the foul line and has a 45" vertical leap, then yeah Wagner is lacking.  But even if he lacks a step moving laterally, his arms are so long that it compensates pretty well.  And his ability to alter shots (including blocks and steals) while in man defense is impressive and shows a level of athleticism that feels a bit short-changed.

Gulogulo37

January 14th, 2021 at 11:25 PM ^

Also, I think people may underestimate how many NBA players can dunk from the foul line. And for many who can't, they may still be very athletic but too short or too big. Athleticism is more important in basketball than probably any other sport. The people in the NBA are freaks. Yes, most NBA players are black, but very few black people can do what NBA players do. They are not normal.

UP to LA

January 14th, 2021 at 4:43 PM ^

A framing that I like for these sorts of evaluations is whether or not a guy does something well enough to get playoff minutes. He'll probably never be a 20-point scorer, but I can absolutely see Franz stepping in and guarding NBA wings in critical situations, and doing everything else well enough to stay on the court. And you really can't say that about a ton of guys.

GOBLUE4EVR

January 14th, 2021 at 1:22 PM ^

in regards to Juwan... what Duncan said out him being "genuine" is correct... i got to meet Juwan at the last soccer game played at the Big House as he was in one of the suites i was serving that day... i walked into the suite to see they needed anything after they got there and he walked up to me with his right hand out to shake mine and says "Hi I'm Juwan Howard!"... in my head i'm like no shit i know who you are and i was so close to going complete fan boy at that moment...

njvictor

January 14th, 2021 at 1:22 PM ^

The draft projections for Michigan players are so confusing and hard to keep up with. I've never seen a group of guys dominate so much but also the draft coverage of them being so varied. I guess we'll see what happens

Michigan4Life

January 14th, 2021 at 1:47 PM ^

NBA is about about projection and most of Michigan players don't have that NBA level athleticism which hurts their draft stock. Look at Luka Garza, he was one of the best player in the country last season and he couldn't get a sniff by NBA teams bc of his athleticism and defense. Production does help but it's the potential that matters more to NBA.

The good thing about Franz is he's still 19 and about to turn 20 soon so he's still super young. I'd have to imagine how far his stock will rise if he continues to play this well in the last few games.

Dickinson is trickier because he's old for a freshman and pretty much hit his ceiling as a player. Short of showing 3 pt shooting potential, he doesn't offer much defensively.

Livers is who he is which is a 3 and D but he isn't a great athlete though. He'll be a valuable contributor off the bench as a combo F.

Chaundee Brown has a chance to stick as a 3 and D wing player who can guard 1-4. He's pretty old for a prospect since he's a senior.

Mike Smith is old for a prospect and is small. He's just okay as a defensive player but would get exposed in the NBA due to his size and average athleticism.

Juwan's 1st full recruiting class has more potential to get drafted at lottery like Houstan, Diabate and Bufkin.

Amaizing Blue

January 14th, 2021 at 1:52 PM ^

“I think they need to be held accountable for their actions if they can’t manage it no better than that.”   This from a man who is a Judge Executive in Kentucky.  Whatever that is.  Impressive to use both "Accountable" and "No better" in the same sentence.  

AC1997

January 14th, 2021 at 2:42 PM ^

That Kentucky stuff is so ridiculous.  I will avoid triggering the politics alarm....but I'm not even sure what these wackos are mad about.  Some basketball players knelt down - even if you are someone who supported what happened in DC - who cares enough about a handful of college kids kneeling enough to go that crazy?  Geez....

 

MadMatt

January 14th, 2021 at 4:27 PM ^

A lot of people who don't understand the purpose of a university get all worked up about alleged licentiousness happening there. They're fine with spending their money to buy stuff from companies with immoral/illegal business practices that are 100% against their professed values, but God forbid a student at a publicly subsidized university get out of line. It's such an evergreen of outrage that it's in the playbook of a certain flavor of entrepreneurial demogogue.

AC1997

January 14th, 2021 at 2:49 PM ^

The OSU defense vs. Alabama is interesting.  It highlights a few things to me:

  • OSU got a taste of their own medicine against Bama.  
  • OSU has good coaches....but they're not geniuses and ultimately having better talent goes a long way. OSU gets by on defense (and offense) by just having the best talent....they found someone with better talent.
  • It underscores how futile some of the coaching scorn is at times. Bo himself could come back from the grave and if the talent gap is too much then you're going to need a lot of luck.
  • What's the fun of college anymore where Alabama isn't even playing the same sport, then OSU/Clemson are in their own tier right behind them, then everyone else is hoping to sneak in to the next tier if they're lucky.  ND was light-years behind those other programs.  
  • Can Michigan ever hope to compete at that level if they can't match the recruiting success?
  • lol....Michigan had a better game plan against Bama than OSU did.

 

Wallaby Court

January 14th, 2021 at 4:22 PM ^

PFF's argument (or conclusion) really highlighted how college football has become antifun. PFF wanted OSU to run more varied coverages so it would have a chance to keep up with Alabama. Even PFF thought something different was not going to stop Alabama, just give OSU a chance to be interesting.