Signgate The Sixth: Nevermind All That?
And then it was fine? Yesterday I laid out what I thought was the most likely scenario in which the NCAA did something of significant consequence to Michigan: leverage the new head coach responsibility bylaw to drop a show cause on Jim Harbaugh for stuff Connor Stalions did. IMO, this is still a concern, but it looks like less of one now that ~all paysites are reporting that whatever roadblocks this investigation had put up towards Harbaugh's new contract are gone:
There are currently no roadblocks between Michigan and Jim Harbaugh to get a deal done.
— Josh Henschke (@JoshHenschke) October 31, 2023
What we know, and what we don't, about how the university plans to proceed with extension talks.
Details: https://t.co/J3i6wWGvzL
Henschke followed that up with a tweet saying that there is "some hypothesizing that the contract will likely mean Michigan is Jim Harbaugh's last job." For his part, Sam Webb posted an article headlined "Harbaugh extension process no longer paused."
It seems likely Michigan will announce a new contract that makes Harbaugh the highest-paid coach in the Big Ten, and it sounds like for the first time it will have a significant buyout if Harbaugh wants to leave. Given that he's been at Michigan for ten years and has never had anything like that in his contract, if that does come to fruition it would be a statement that he's sticking in Ann Arbor long-term.
A lot of people are taking this as good news in regards to the NCAA violations Stalions was racking up. I agree, at least partially. It beggars belief that Michigan would move forward with the contract unless they had completed their review of everyone's laptops, phones, etc., and found no evidence that Stalions's "vast network" was anything other than his personal project. Certainly at Harbaugh's level, and likely all the way down the list. The contract proceeding means that if we were going to hear about additional suspensions/firings/personnel being launched into the sun, we would hear about them now. No news is good news.
[After THE JUMP: sigh: however]
However! Even if Stalions was acting entirely on his own, there is still the matter of the HC responsibility bylaw. AFAIK it is so new that Harbaugh is going to be the first case, more or less. Anything could happen. In general, you should bet on "the NCAA will do nothing" in almost all cases. But here you've got a guy who the enforcement committee clearly hates. He's coming off a three-game suspension that appears to be for stonewalling on some piddly charges. A guy with a blood vendetta against Harbaugh is literally on the committee, and even if he has to recuse himself from this case he's probably going to be trying to influence it in any way he can.
I have no idea what the chances of this transpiring are but they're not zero.
But the contract? All coaching contracts give the school an out if the NCAA comes down on them. Harbaugh's current contract has this in the section detailing when the university can fire Harbaugh for cause:
Unless that language changes in the updated contract the U isn't going out on a limb here. If the NCAA does give Harbaugh a show cause they could fire him for cause. In fact, it is dead certain that at some point they are going to have the ability to fire Harbaugh for cause. The next bullet:
Probation and a fine are definitely happening.
Michigan is not going to fire Harbaugh for cause unless they have absolutely no other choice; this section asserts that while the contract going forward is evidence of several good things, it is not evidence that Jim Harbaugh is personally in the clear with the NCAA.
NEW: @TheAthletic has obtained more photos of the goatee'd sunglasses person on the Central Michigan sideline at Michigan State.
— Chris Vannini (@ChrisVannini) October 31, 2023
CMU is looking into whether this is Connor Stalions.
Story: https://t.co/79siEcZ89r pic.twitter.com/R5AyslTIWF
He's deceiving me, it cuts my security. CMU is investigating whether Stalions was on their sideline for the MSU-CMU game in week one this year. (It was on Friday, thus opening up the possibility of attending.) I believe they're going to find that he was, and that he dressed up in CMU coaching gear to access places he wasn't supposed to. You only investigate who a person is when you don't, you know, know who he is. Because he's employed by you.
This doesn't matter: one more game isn't going to significantly move the needle when Stalions was taping 30. It should further indicate just how off the rails this guy was, and certainly makes it more believable that he was, uh, dedicated enough to do all this on his own. He's wearing sunglasses at night.
I guess the good news is that Ed Norton's going to play him in the movie. That's a big get.
Nothing is happening soon. Pete Thamel appeared on Pat McAfee's show and said that "this will not get expedited and there's no mechanism for it." 2023 punishments are not happening from the NCAA. The Big Ten would have to be mad enough to make Fox furious, reduce the conference's chances of making the playoff, reduce all their bottom lines, and deal with Michigan saber-rattling about going to the SEC. That's not happening either. This team is in the clear.
October 31st, 2023 at 6:49 PM ^
The University should sign Harbaugh ASAP! And then tell the NCAA to go fuck off!
October 31st, 2023 at 6:54 PM ^
IDK, I still don’t think that’s stalions. I think it’s some guy who looks similar and may actually be part of CMU’s staff. I think they are investigating to actually make sure it’s their guy and not stalions.
October 31st, 2023 at 11:53 PM ^
if it's a cmu guy, shouldn't that investigation take like 10 seconds?
October 31st, 2023 at 7:11 PM ^
Man o man. Stallions is, uh, an interesting guy.
October 31st, 2023 at 7:19 PM ^
+1 for the Corey Hart reference. My wife just became an instant fan of yours, Brian.
October 31st, 2023 at 7:26 PM ^
Gotta love a good Corey Hart reference, amirite?
October 31st, 2023 at 8:31 PM ^
Never Surrender.
October 31st, 2023 at 7:45 PM ^
This point about the large buyout is significant and previously unreported. Thanks Comrade Brian!
October 31st, 2023 at 7:48 PM ^
I thought this would move the needle because the issue of in-person scouting was Michigan's previous gray-area 'out,' right? (He had others tape the game, they can't be staff by definition, thus Michigan follows the letter--though not the spirit--of the rule.)
Edit: Is my mistake here that he's not recording and that's what's significant?
October 31st, 2023 at 8:06 PM ^
It doesn't move the needle because Michigan's position all along has been Stalions went rogue and broke the rules. This is just another example of when he did that. Michigan was never arguing gray area.
For Stalions personally, if he wanted to avoid a show cause and wanted to argue gray area, if that's really him at MSU, then this is a big problem for him personally.
October 31st, 2023 at 7:59 PM ^
Here's where I'm at on Stalions-Gate:
Unless...
(1) Harbaugh is implicated (beyond the NCAA collective punishment clause for a head coach needing to be omniscient)
(2) Michigan wins from the '21, '22, '23 teams get vacated
(3) someone can prove the vast network's scheme did fuck-all to actually win Michigan games
I just don't care. At all. I think/hope this is a pretty healthy way to view it as a Michigan fan.
October 31st, 2023 at 8:22 PM ^
This is exactly the right take. And the right three things to care about.
November 1st, 2023 at 10:40 AM ^
Your last point is impossible to prove either way. It’s all subjective and you’ve had coaches and players say opposite things. It’s clear Michigan coaches thought having the signs helped, that’s why stallions is standing next to them during games
November 1st, 2023 at 11:32 AM ^
Every program has a "sign guy." The only question for competitive advantage is whether advance, in person attendance moves the needle from "ordinary, permitted sign stealing" to "advanced sign stealing with additional benefit." And the NCAA concluded not long ago that that any possible advantage was negligible. So the only thing you have left is maybe Michigan broke a rule that we previously considered repealing and that rule has little if any competitive advantage.
November 1st, 2023 at 12:26 PM ^
I've been pointing this out as well but I think it's often overlooked. When considering the impact of the alleged cheating, it's not a question of how impactful is sign stealing. Sign stealing is legal.
It's a question of the difference between the information gained from the cheating and the legal means of stealing signs.
There was at least one anonymous sign stealer who said both (paraphrasing) "I get everything I need from the TV copies" and "I am outraged that someone would dare cross such a sacred line of in-person scouting."
Why are you outraged? You just said there's literally zero benefit to doing it.
November 1st, 2023 at 3:45 PM ^
The NCAA themselves said that it has minimal competitive advantage when they tried to drop the rule in 2021.
October 31st, 2023 at 8:12 PM ^
Throwback to 2015: HARBAUGHHHHHHH
October 31st, 2023 at 8:31 PM ^
Did you talk to your friend at CMU?
Yeah, he says if Stalions doesn't want to be found, we're not going to find him. He said I could be Stalions and you wouldn't even know.
Are you Stalions?
No.
I'm not Stalions. That's two...
October 31st, 2023 at 8:51 PM ^
Will always upvote A Few Good Men.
October 31st, 2023 at 9:01 PM ^
My first thought upon seeing the photos was - That's Ed Norton. Doesn't look like Stallions to me. However, if it is not CS, why hasn't anyone come forward and identified the super secret agent looking guy in the shades? If it is CS, this only attests to his level of lunacy.
October 31st, 2023 at 9:14 PM ^
I thought the CMU thing was a joke. Lots of dudes look like that. But holy shit. . . I think that's him. This guy is unreal.
October 31st, 2023 at 10:05 PM ^
As interesting as a movie of this episode might be, I am hoping for another JUB book, which would then be made into a Hamilton-style musical.
October 31st, 2023 at 10:15 PM ^
Cant wait for Signgate 7.
November 1st, 2023 at 8:52 AM ^
I just hope this show ends after one season though.
October 31st, 2023 at 10:29 PM ^
How long is this "firm" of 3rd and trounced going to continue Where's Waldo?
November 1st, 2023 at 5:27 PM ^
Correction, the name is "Out at Third."
October 31st, 2023 at 11:17 PM ^
Subtle little thing worth noting about the pics and video of CS at the CMU-MSU game. First, as Brian pointed out and everyone can see, the dude is in a partial disguise. He wears his sunglasses at night. Also, when the play comes out of bounds near CS, he ducks his head down and draws his hat down a little as well in an effort to apparently not be seen by the cameras. It's pretty obvious to me that he knew what he was doing was wrong. And if he was instructed by his superiors to attend that game then I believe he would not so blatantly try to hide his identity, primarily not for fear of the NCAA, but fear of getting in trouble with his employer first and foremost.
November 1st, 2023 at 9:00 AM ^
Maybe that is really Dylan McCaffrey as a part of CMU staff.
November 1st, 2023 at 10:21 AM ^
A question that I keep asking myself is how did anyone (allegedly) spot Connor Stallions on the CMU's sideline? That was over a month ago at this point. This smear campaign is running out of "shocking" anecdotes to drive the masses in Ohio into a frenzy of "rampid cheating proclamations." I don't doubt that's him in any way at this point, but again who went back and rewatched an awful football game, and came to the conclusion that OMG that's Connor Stallions on CMU's sidelines? I'm now nearing the platform to buy a ticket on the Stallions was a plant train with some of the other tin foil hat fans we have in our community. Make it make sense?
November 1st, 2023 at 10:35 AM ^
The constant downplaying of this is weird. This is the biggest scandal in college football in years, multiple people are calling for a post season ban this year, a survey of coaches in the athletic found overwhelmingly that this is a big deal and harbaugh basically had to know. Maybe it won’t impact this year but Michigan will be vacating wins and harbaugh is likely getting a show cause. Just enjoy this year
November 1st, 2023 at 10:50 AM ^
I thought before that you were always a positive poster.
/s
Enjoy your miserableness forever!!!
November 1st, 2023 at 11:07 AM ^
Hello I am an exiled Prince and I need your help! Send me a DM immediately so I can tell you about a GUARANTEED investment opportunity. There is NO CHANCE of loss with this scheme and not only will you make a fortune I will also induct you to my royal court once re-established on the throne. I can tell you are the kind of person who will believe me but you must act QUICKLY!
November 1st, 2023 at 11:24 AM ^
I think that survey in the athletic was only 4 coaches, 1 of which didn't seem to care.
November 1st, 2023 at 11:48 AM ^
Inflammatory name checks out.
November 1st, 2023 at 1:18 PM ^
Ask yourself this: who has created the scandal? We haven't heard from the NCAA and we haven't heard from Michigan.
November 1st, 2023 at 3:48 PM ^
This is the most trivial yet interesting scandal in college football in years
Fixed it for you.
November 1st, 2023 at 11:20 AM ^
Glad to hear it.
November 1st, 2023 at 11:45 AM ^
Over/under on biased ref calls against us in the PSU OSU games as NCAA payback for these nothing burgers?
November 1st, 2023 at 1:03 PM ^
If we wanted to go down the referee weaponized conspiracy theory route, it wouldn't make sense for us to get jobbed at PSU. They're Big Ten refs, not NCAA refs. PSU isn't the best shot at a title with their loss and freshman QB.
Big Ten would want us undefeated versus OSU. If we're both still undefeated for that game, then you can be concerned.
If we get screwed at PSU it will just be the usual refs hate Harbaugh and Michigan deal, which might be intensified.
November 1st, 2023 at 2:28 PM ^
Bad calls can’t directly put points on the scoreboard, so so it’s hard to see how the refs could meaningfully help PSU.
(I also don’t get into referee conspiracy theorizing, just thought I would contribute a dig at Penn State.)
November 2nd, 2023 at 3:02 AM ^
PLEASE don’t say “burgers”…
November 1st, 2023 at 2:24 PM ^
This is the dumbest controversy in the history of controversies.
November 1st, 2023 at 2:26 PM ^
I really hope you are right about this. I read The Athletic, and although most of the takes I’ve seen are lazy and uninformed — mainly because the writers don’t mention the manifesto / grandiose-superfan angle and write as though it’s a given that Michigan’s coaches were involved — the prevailing opinion seems to be that it’s a serious investigation that will probably have serious consequences. The poll article they did today reflecting interviews with 50 FBS coaches was especially alarming.
November 1st, 2023 at 3:04 PM ^
The Athletic. That pretty much sums it up.
November 1st, 2023 at 2:57 PM ^
I don't have a problem if it was him, and was given free entrance. We're allowed to collude with McElwain. Tressel and Dantonio did it for a decade and they were in the same conference. Stalions was a guest of McElwain and to further his career and share football knowledge.
November 1st, 2023 at 7:16 PM ^
He looks bad either way. Either they don't keep track of who wanders their sidelines during games or he invited a staff member from another team during a game being played against that team's rival, and that team is now allegedly under investigation for stealing signs from rival teams during games. Even if it was unintentional, it could look like he was helping Michigan, and I'm sure at this point in time, he doesn't want to get dragged into this controversy.
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