Previously: Podcast 11.0A, Podcast 11.0B, Podcast 11.0C. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Offensive Tackle. Interior OL. Defensive End. Defensive Tackle. Linebacker. Cornerback.

Depth Chart

Yeah I'm done with the safety distinction. In a world where jet sweeps force Michigan safeties to swap on any motion across the formation, there is no real difference between the two safety spots. If you've got a free safety who can't cover slots, he'll be over the slot. Safety is safety.

Michigan has a senior and a hyper-recruit to plug into two spots here, but Dax Hill's remained stubbornly down the depth chart despite being able to run through cows. This could be good news about Brad Hawkins. It's definitely bad news for cows.

SAFETIES: METALLURGY-BASED NAMES NEVER FAIL

RATING: 3.5

does not get torched, does not miss assignments [Bryan Fuller]

JOSH METELLUS is good and shut up about it. A dropped interception a couple years ago and a few slants early in 2018 set up a rabbling industry that is only now subsiding, if it actually is. This is undeserved. You're allowed to feel like you died when he did the thing with the ball and not catching it. If you take those feelings and use them to predict the future you are going to be wrong.

Metellus was both boring and interesting. He was boring in the good ways. I think he had one (1) major issue with his assignments last year, that when everyone expected him to be the 1 in cover 1 against MSU. He was not. Brian Lewerke's injury bailed him out then. Metellus required no other bailing out all season. The above link is the only –2 I clipped for him. That's boring. That's so beautifully boring.

[After the JUMP: and interesting!]

Metellus was so boring that he occasionally delivered his boring unto touchdowns, and made them otherwise. Michigan got whooped against Wisconsin from time to time, once so badly that Jonathan Taylor zipped past 10 guys with a single cut. Metellus got the best back in the country in space, put him to one side, and dealt with it:

Metellus put out fires. A lot of safeties do this; Metellus was upper-echelon.

The interesting bit is that he made plays. Michigan hasn't had a safety make plays in a long time. I should note that I'm specifically going with "make plays," not MAKE PLAYS, because Metellus didn't warrant all caps. Not all the time, anyway. But by late in the year he was able to line up with that slot-fade-preventing outside leverage and still get PBUs on slants:

That perks the ol' ears up. (He also managed similar early in the year, but people didn't want to listen.) Given the nature of the coverage teams rarely tried to test it on the slot fade, but when they did Metellus was proof of concept.

The next week he got flagged on a similar instance when KJ Hamler yanked Metellus to him. This was super-frustrating at the time but for season preview purposes it's excellent. Metellus was step for step with Speedy Eaglet and only got flagged because he was in the 50/50 zone.

A lot of Metellus's negative plays were in a similar vein, situations where he was in good coverage and either got hit with a flag of dubious validity or was unlucky. Luck can be of your own making. An in-phase Metellus who gets his head around doesn't have this happen…

…but also, I mean, come on. If that ball is better thrown Metellus has an opportunity to shoryuken it out; as it is Proche's hands don't come up and he has no opportunity. Sometimes the bear eats you.

Metellus was rarely beaten clean, even by quick slot types. Proche was first-team CUSA last year, and when he matched up against Jayden Reed of WMU—who had 59 catches as a freshman and transferred to MSU—on a wheel route he was step for step:

Add it up and Metellus graded out very well. I had him +26 through 11 games, which is a big number for a safety. Safeties frequently show up in the picture solely because they screwed up; when they do well frequently you don't see them, and don't grade them. His headline stats were also outstanding:

Throw on Josh Metellus at your own risk: last season he only allowed a 41.8% completion percentage, nabbed 3 interceptions and held opposing quarterbacks to a 34.3 passer rating pic.twitter.com/AdQQz2sVEQ

— PFF College (@PFF_College) July 4, 2019

PFF's overall grading had him at a 73.3, which is solid but doesn't quite match the above numbers.

In his final year Metellus isn't likely to improve a ton. His command of the defense is already close to flawless. Maybe he works on his coverage technique some, but he's already solid or better there. A little faster, a little stronger, and Metellus should be All Big Ten again before heading off to the third day of the draft.

New and improved? [Patrick Barron]

After considerable spring uncertainty and a lot of Dax Hill hype—this space is as guilty as anyone else—it looks like BRAD HAWKINS [recruiting profile] is going to be the other starting safety, and the nickel, and generally be critical to Michigan's defense.

This is necessarily spooky. Hawkins was on the receiving end of three of the worst plays of the year, non-OSU edition. He combined with Long to bust both coverages on SMU's long touchdown. Which, fine, sophomore first playing time it'll happen. The two other events were less benign and more ominous. The first came in the opener. Metellus got ejected, Hawkins drew in, and then the guy who was a jump-ball maven as a WR somehow let a 5'10" slot receiver dunk on him:

The second ominous event was against Rutgers, when Isaih Pacheco broke into the open field and Hawkins could not track him down:

S #20 pointing and motioning up then back

Hard to see that happening to Dax Hill, to name someone who may or may not also be on the roster.

That's a hell of an introduction for a guy who saw only scattered snaps. After that event against Rutgers, UFR was a bit tetchy:

Hawkins, on the other hand, has built up a fairly sizeable list of regrettable plays in his time so far. He again failed to crack replace on the one screen that was not comprehensively doomed:

S #20 to top

… I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little nervous about replacing Kinnel.

Hawkins did look comfortable when the walls weren't caving in. Michigan moved to a two-high look against Notre Dame, which drew Hawkins into a lot of primary run defense. He executed that just fine:

S #20 to top of screen

He didn't look out of place much of the time. When he did, yikes.

Hawkins is one of the bigger fall hype magnets, with Webb repeatedly talking him up as a sure starter. He returned from his hiatus declaring "the Hawkins hype is real," which was a surprise to me, a person who was not aware that any Hawkins hype existed. This was my impression of the level of Hawkins hype:

Being frank, Dax is going to have to start. I won’t be surprised if he is the day-one starter, and I would be surprised if he is NOT the starter by the midway point of the season.

Turns out there is legitimate Hawkins hype. Don Brown:

Josh Metellus is playing at an extremely high level, I think, giving quality maturity to the group. He and Brad Hawkins are neck and neck. They're both in it. Who is one, who is two? Who is best, who is our second best? I can't really tell you that.

This builds on Hawkins hype from last year:

Hawkins continued progress especially noteworthy because of his previously mentioned man coverage ability. Partridge called him the best man cover guy at the position. It was just a matter of parking him at a position and letting him get comfortable at one spot.

So, yeah, there are some takes out there. Webb was skeptical about some the ones he was hearing—like early NFL entry being a possibility—but willing to bite on Hawkins being a "coverage upgrade" on Tyree Kinnel. Your author is extremely dubious that Hawkins is right there with Metellus but happy to hear that someone's willing to say it even if it's 50% balderdash. FWIW, Lorenz has been more circumspect, saying he's "buying stock on him being a contributor" and that he's "looked good." Rivals was on the gung-ho end of the spectrum: "the best safety in camp, and his cover skills are better than last year’s group."

Webb's one-on-one interview with Partridge yielded some interesting takes:

He talked about Brad Hawkins upgrading that aspect of the defense significantly. "Brad can go down and cover smaller, quicker guys in space." And he also gives them the luxury of size at nickel that they didn't have with corners in that spot. Ideally in their defense the nickel is a safety that can cover in space. And because of his additional size he can cover tight ends and play the edge in the run game.

That's true if we're talking about an every-down nickel; less so if he's restricted to passing downs. The idea of Hawkins being a big, rangy guy who can stick with slots is difficult to wrap your head around after a few of the events above. My best guess is that they'd go to more inside leverage. The ND event above notwithstanding, Hawkins did some crazy leaping things in high school…

…and I might be willing to live with slot fades against a guy on a pogo stick. Two pogo sticks.

That high school film is another reason for optimism: Hawkins did not play defense until arriving in Ann Arbor, and even after he switched he spent a lot of time at viper. Rapid improvement is a strong possibility.

Hawkins joins Dwumfour and Thomas as guys who could be virtually anything. It's notable that the Hawkins talk is a lot different than a couple other players entering make-or-break junior years at positions of need—there's probably something to it. Enough to make him a star? Probably not. Enough to meet or reasonably exceed Kinnel's output last year?

Okay, I'm buying. Let's call him "Ol' Pewter" just to be sure. Metallurgy. Also sounds like Star Wars lasers. LFG.

BACKUPS

Daxton Hill is Denard fast [Isaiah Hole]

First, DAXTON HILL [recruiting profile]. Very excellent to have a Daxton Hill:

That is an electronically timed 4.3 flat 40, yessir, along with the best vert amongst safeties nationally; he would later improve that shuttle time to a 4.13, per ESPN. This is on another level from Donovan Peoples-Jones. It's on another level from Jabrill Peppers, who put up a 4.46 40 and 36 inch vert at the NFL combine. To be fair, Peppers did that about 25 pounds heavier than Dax was at his Opening regional. Even so, as soon as Dax Hill walks on campus he will take his place amongst the most absurdly athletic persons to ever don the Maize and Blue.

The #1 safety recruit in the country and a late rescue from an alpaca-out-of-nowhere Alabama flip, Hill arrives with all the hype possible. In addition to doing all of that above he can also play football:

"Long, explosive athlete …Quick to read and react and pursues fast without much wasted motion. Very good coverage skills; adept at both man and zone. Shows good pop on contact as a tackler. Still developing size and strength which makes for a high ceiling. …ability to close and make plays with athleticism and ball skills in the passing game is perfect for [Don Brown's defense]."

Webb projected him to start; I projected him to start; everyone projected him to start.  Then Chris Partridge with the record scratch:

For now, Hill sits fourth on the depth chart at safety, behind Josh Metellus, Brad Hawkins and J'Marick Woods, with Metellus and Hawkins as the presumed starters. And at the nickel, Hill is working behind Hawkins.

That can't last.  Hill did not enroll early and went through the bridge program Michigan has, keeping him out of sections of fall practice. Brown emphasized his experience when asked:

“Obviously, Daxton Hill is a guy that’s on our radar and has practiced extremely well,” Brown said. “But again, he’s a true, true, true freshman five practices in, but we’re feeling pretty good about the top end of that safety group looks.”

So now what? We wait. Corner depth means that Michigan's nickel is going to be bringing in an extra safety and using Hawkins over the slot. There's going to be a lot of nickel that the next guy in this section will start out getting, because if Hill doesn't know the defense he can give up free touchdowns like Hawkins did against SMU. But nobody is going to hold this guy off from at least nickel duty by midseason. Webb as of mid-July:

Daxton is currently taking second string reps at nickel and third string reps at free safety (Hawkins is repping at both safety spots). That's to be expected while he learns. I expect that to change very early in the season if not before it. I think Michigan will have a tough time being as aggressive with its coverage schemes if Dax doesn't play a prominent role.

Since then Hawkins has emerged as a guy with some reason to believe he'll manage. I don't think anyone else has.

Hill does have a lot on his plate early. Michigan has to be more diverse with their coverages after last year, and he's had little time to pick it all up. That shouldn't be a problem long term. A dollar says he's the nickelback by Wisconsin, and Hawkins will have to work to keep him from entering a rotation opposite Metellus.

Next year, ignition.

tall [Patrick Barron]

J'MARICK "OL' WOODS" WOODS [recruiting profile] is currently ahead of Hill on the depth chart and will try to make the most of that situation before Hill gets his head on straight. His Perd Hapley-ass nickname, which is of course anything but, came about because he hit people hard:

"He's kind of earning his nickname -- we call him 'Woods' -- and he definitely brings the wood, as a physical player."

His playing time was scanty. He did get some snaps after Metellus's ejection against ND. Two got clipped. He lost his man after a wild Wimbush scramble, and he had a nice fill on a run that broke to the edge:

He also missed a tackle against Maryland, although he at least forced the back inside of him.

Brown called Woods a "vastly improved football player" this fall, so that's something. But it's not too hard to read between the lines when Webb talks about a potential move to viper:

One of the noteworthy items is on J'Marick Woods. You guys know that it has long been my belief that VIPER is the ideal position for him in THIS defense because of the abundant man coverage responsibilities Michigan puts on its safeties.

 

There's no such thing as a free safety except on passing downs. If you suck at man coverage the opponent will motion you into man coverage. If Woods isn't able to cover man to man, he won't be in front of Dax Hill long.

also fast [247]

No other safeties have drawn fall mentions. Freshman QUINTEN JOHNSON [recruiting profile] is the guy I'm most optimistic about. In part this is because Johnson comes in with athletic chops not too far off Hill's. He had the #8 SPARQ score nationally after laying down a 4.4 40 and a 4.1 shuttle at an Opening regional.

Johnson's recruiting profile has a lot of mentions about polishing up his technique, which is in progress. He had a rough start during his all-star week but by the end of the sessions was drawing praise:

“…was as consistent as any defensive back out there, which is saying a lot in that group. I thought he played his technique well, maintained leverage, and maybe most impressively… didn’t panic when the ball was in the air. … You really couldn’t find a weakness (Tuesday). He wasn’t beaten deep or anything.”

“I thought he was fluid enough (to cover man to man). Now, he didn’t have to turn and run with guys that are 4.5-flat or better."

Johnson's testing suggests that if he can flip his hips adequately he'll manage that latter. It is something of an open question.

This site is more optimistic about Johnson than the other guys on the roster largely because of the spring game:

Tyler Cochran and fellow walk-on Hunter Reynolds appeared to be the second string safety pairing. Reynolds has been garnering a little chatter inside the program, and he's a two-time scout team player of the year, so maybe he's a find. One walk-on can be fine. Two is alarming.

HUNTER REYNOLDS has continued to draw passing mention when coaches describe the safety depth chart. Cochran has not. Redshirt freshman SAMMY FAUSTIN [recruiting profile] is also in the passing mention bin. Classmate GERMAN GREEN [recruiting profile] is not. Neither has drawn a single meaningful mention thus far, and the walk-on brigade in the spring game probably means something. I wouldn't expect either to play this year. There's been talk of moving Faustin to corner.