NFL Draft Preview: Brace For Chaos
I've never been more excited for the NFL Draft.
This has little to do with the players involved, nothing to do with my on-again off-again relationship with the Detroit Lions, and everything to do with the fact that 32 NFL GMs—by and large the aging dads who need their children to log in to Netflix—will be attempting to conduct the entire draft via a remote group-chat setup. By now, many of us have experienced the pitfalls faced by inexperienced Zoom/Hangouts/Skype users. The tension just to see if picks get in on time is going to be incredible.
"We've hired four computer folks and we're completely re-doing the back-end of our college and pro scouting systems" – Dave Gettleman discusses the Giants' advancements in analytics pic.twitter.com/uJKQ9fkpxA
— Giants Videos (@SNYGiants) December 31, 2019
Godspeed, computer folks.
There are other compelling reasons to tune in besides gawking at technological train derailments. Michigan looks poised to have as many as nine players selected over the next three days, including two who could go in tonight's first round.
The First-Round Candidates
can't teach this bend [Bryan Fuller]
Cesar Ruiz entered the draft a year early after a rock-solid college career at center. Like his play, his draft projections are very consistent. He's the #31 player on The Athletic's consensus top 300 big board and most mocks I've seen have him going in the last ten picks of the first round. ESPN's Mel Kiper expects him to go somewhere in the 20s and his final mock sends Ruiz to the Patriots at #23. As NFL.com's Lance Zuerlein says, his ability to play multiple spots on the interior line could help him get into a starting lineup early in his career:
Athletic and tenacious with the combination of skills and technique to fit into a variety of blocking schemes on the next level. Ruiz wins early with initial quickness and fast hands into first contact. He works to convert early advantages into wins. He's consistent in securing down-blocks and has the athletic traits to become a second-level factor. He'll give some ground to power rushers and needs help against wide-bodies, but the tape checks out. Ruiz has early starting potential and should develop into a good pro with guard/center flexibility.
Ruiz is Michigan's best bet to get his name called tonight. He's projected as the first interior lineman off the board. Since 2000, there's been only one draft (2017) in which the first round passed without an interior OL selected.
On the other hand, Josh Uche is one of the draft's bigger wild cards, which befits his time as a Wolverine. Unfortunately, a lot of Uche's draft uncertainty comes from perceived mis- and under-utilization in Don Brown's defense. Here's a scathing scout take via The Athletic's Bob McGinn:
“He was so underused there,” one scout said. “With his ability to bend the edge it’s ridiculous. He can affect the quarterback from a bunch of different angles. Michigan really did this kid a disservice. For as versatile as this kid is he should never leave the field. He can run. He can cover. I thought he was the best defensive player in Mobile besides (Javon) Kinlaw. He’s super conscientious. He would have run high 4.4s, low 4.5s and jumped close to 40. All that stuff people don’t know.”
The next scout quoted believes Uche is a 3-4 outside linebacker at the next level; I agree. The third scout produces an all-time "did you watch the right guy" quote [emphasis very much mine]:
“Little guy,” said a third scout. “He’s not a very good athlete. Nothing against the run. No burst as a pass rusher.”
That's up there with "Devin Bush lacks sideline-to-sideline speed." I mean...
...what in tarnation?
Anyway, Uche is the #62 player on the consensus top 300, but he sneaks into the back end of a couple first-round mocks—The Athletic's Dan Brugler projects him at #27 to Seattle. He may go tonight if a team with the right system finds his potential too tantalizing to pass up; he may fall into the second round (as he does on The Ringer's mock) or even the third if the lack of film and positional uncertainty scares teams away in a year there isn't a lot to go on.
[Hit THE JUMP for seven more players with a solid chance to be picked plus more roster candidates.]
The Mid-Rounders
DPJ is another case of potential vs. production [Fuller]
In one of the most loaded receiver classes in recent memory, Donovan Peoples-Jones looks to be a third- or fourth-rounder given current projections; he's at #101 on the consensus board. His scouting profiles mostly read along these lines:
Donovan Peoples-Jones didn’t quite have the production at Michigan given his status as a five-star recruit and No. 1 wide receiver in his class coming out of high school. That said, his quarterback play has been dreadful and it limited his ability to be more productive. Peoples-Jones has many qualities that make him an appealing NFL prospect and likely a better pro than college player. His hands, ball skills, size and athletic ability all shine on tape.
The main questions for him are short-area quickness and his ability to beat press coverage. His potential to contribute as a punt returner helps him and most analysts project him as a big slot. He's one of the players who may have most benefited from a full pre-draft process. Instead, like with Uche, teams may hold off for a while because of the lack of production.
Ben Bredeson is expected to be the second draftee among Ed Warinner's hogmollies. He's at #115 on the consensus mock and should go around the fourth round. While athletic limitations limit his perceived upside, he's seen as a potential starter.
The Late-Rounders
Ed Warinner should get a convincing recruiting graphic out of this weekend. [Fuller]
There's a gap between the consensus projection for Bredeson (#115) and the next Wolverine, fellow guard Mike Onwenu, who's listed at #186 overall. Onwenu's draft stock is limited by his scheme fit; as a planetary lineman with average mobility, he's best suited to a power running attack and probably won't be on the board for a fair number of teams as a result, and there are some questions about whether he can sustain pass-blocks long enough to play in a vertical passing scheme. A team like the Derrick Henry-led Tennessee Titans could fall in love with him, though.
At #189, cornerback LaVert Hill falls only a few spots behind his former Cass Tech teammate on the consensus board. He's regarded similarly, albeit a little less highly, than Jourdan Lewis, whom Dallas picked in the third round in 2017. Hill has promising coverage skills but his size could be a limiting factor against NFL receivers. He's projected behind a lot of Big Ten cornerbacks with better physical profiles that he outperformed for the last 3-4 years.
Another player who'll be dependent on a team seeing a role for him is Khaleke Hudson (#200 consensus). More and more NFL teams are using hybrid safety/linebackers as full-time players, though there's concern Hudson doesn't play either role quite well enough to be an impact player. He can be a versatile backup, however, and his superior punt-blocking skills will be coveted by special teams coaches, which gives him an advantage when it's time to hold onto a roster spot.
NFL.com sees Josh Metellus (#229) as a quality backup who could become a starter down the road. He could benefit from being able to play more zone and less man coverage at the next level; scouts like his run support, physical play, and instincts.
Finally, Jon Runyan Jr. (#237) is projected to slide down to guard at the NFL level. He's listed only two spots behind Onwenu at the position by McGinn. He's seen as a smart player who can play in multiple schemes and his experience as a tackle will help him in the fight for a place on the roster—the more versatility you can provide as a backup, the better for a team trying to get the most out of its 53-man limit.
Possible UDFAs/Day Three Picks
McGinn lists Jordan Glasgow among his draftable linebackers, incidentally one spot behind MSU's Joe Bachie. Glasgow's special teams contributions should at least get him a look as an undrafted free agent. Never doubt a Glasgow.
Defensive end Mike Danna wasn't a featured player on last year's defense after coming over from Central Michigan but he did enough to catch the eye of at least one NFL team. That's all it takes to get into the last couple rounds of the draft.
NFL.com sees tight end Sean McKeon as a priority free agent whose blocking could gain him a roster or practice squad spot.
A Chance For Me to Look Bad
I'll admit I didn't put this together with plans to publish it; I joined a dynasty fantasy football league this year and the draft order is determined by who had the most accurate first-round mock. Here's my attempt without projecting any trades, which are inevitable:
1. CIN - Joe Burrow
2. WAS - Chase Young
3. DET - Jeff Okudah
4. NYG - Jedrick Wills
5. MIA - Justin Herbert
6. LAC - Tua Tagovialoa
7. CAR - Isaiah Simmons
8. ARI - Tristan Wirfs
9. JAC - Derrick Brown
10. CLE - Andrew Thomas
11. NYJ - Mekhi Becton
12. LV - Jerry Jeudy
13. SF - CJ Henderson
14. TB - CeeDee Lamb
15. DEN - Henry Ruggs
16. ATL - K’Lavon Chaisson
17. DAL - Xavier McKinney
18. MIA - Josh Jones
19. LV - Javon Kinlaw
20. JAC - Grant Delpit
21. PHI - Justin Jefferson
22. MIN - Denzel Mims
23. NE - AJ Epenesa
24. NO - Patrick Queen
25. MIN - Jeff Gladney
26. MIA - Yetur Gross-Matos
27. SEA - D’Andre Swift
28. BAL - Kenneth Murray
29. TEN - Ezra Cleveland
30. GB - Kristian Fulton
31. SF - Cesar Ruiz
32. KC - Antoine Winfield Jr.
Sorry about the Becton reminder.
Not bad! I would think Becton would be a perfect fit in Cleveland (since they run a similar system to Louisville). I also can't imagine Tua slipping past #5; I know the smoke says Herbert, but Herbert is... kinda bad?
Otherwise, seems solid. I appreciate your not giving KC a RB just because (Winfield would be a steal for them), and I also like that you left Love and Jalen Reagor for my Colts to pick up -- i'd be happy with either one.
Thanks! There's definitely a lot of "some NFL teams are run better than others" baked into that mock.
I wouldn't personally take Herbert anywhere near Tua but I also never would've drafted Josh Allen or Daniel Jones in the top ten, to name a couple recent examples.
I think that concern over Tua has grown in the draft build-up process this year, especially without the ability to work him out. Lefty, Injury Prone, Read-Option System, Surrounded by the best talent, etc. I still expect him to be a better pro than Herbert....but it would be ideal if he landed somewhere that doesn't need him to be a starter on a bad team right away.
Josh Allen has some really good pieces around him. We'll have to see how good he can be, once they have to give him $30m.
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April 24th, 2020 at 12:34 PM ^
Yeah there's one thing that'll make you care more about it and that is gambling which became legal in Michigan. You'llend up watching Mac games on Wednesday night with super bowl intensity
Anyone else think it’s odd they are even having the draft without postponing? It would seem logical to not commit yourself as a GM to pay someone for possibly not doing any work for the next year. I mean they are already paying for an entire roster of players who are sitting at home. This could of course all blow over but it seems postponing a month or two would have been feasible.
I don't think they pay them just because they are drafted. The team and the player have to negotiate a contract before the player gets anything.
Also, players get paid to play. They aren't paid during the offseason. They won't get paid until game week aside from signing bonuses.
April 24th, 2020 at 12:44 PM ^
Draftee signings happen quick though in NFL as salaries are all slotted
They might shell out signing bonus money, but there's no game checks to be paid with if there are no games.
TB going after a WR when they have Evans, Godwin, Brate, and Gronk/Howard while their OTs aren't great seems iffy. Godwin is going to want a big contract and they could replace him with a highly drafted rookie starting next season, but they're in a win now mode with the Brady and Gronk signs/trades. Their OL needs some work as does their secondary.
Who is going to be the first GM to make their pick while on Mute?
The Mighty Quinn
I'm looking forward to hearing some frustrated front office exec drop an f-bomb on live TV because they can't figure out how to work their video chat or they don't understand how to mute themselves. Maybe someone will accidentally reveal their pick early not realizing they aren't on mute
All good arguments for running this thing on a 10 second delay.
Why is Runyan so low? It seems like a few months ago he was seen as a similar level guard prospect to Bredeson and now he's mostly going undrafted in mocks
I think there's concern that he's stuck between positions in that his technique and footwork is good for a tackle but he doesn't have the length or athleticism. At guard he hasn't played much there and he doesn't have the mass or strength to maul people. The good news is that I think Ace is right that someone is going to keep them on their roster for years as the 7th lineman who can play anywhere.
Which is funny because Runyan has more than enough length at OT at 33" inch arms(NFL generally wants 33" or longer so he fits that criteria) and is an elite athlete. He should be looked at OT first then move to OG if needed.
I thought the book on JRJr was that he was very athletic. Isn’t that why he played LT despite his size?
There is no way a guy who actually played well at LT in the B1G despite not having prototypical size, has versatility, and is the son of a long-time NFL starter, is not getting drafted.
I don't know what's going on with McKeon. On the one hand....why leave early if you're barely even in the draft discussion? On the other hand, clearly he left early thinking he'd at least get picked in the middle rounds and was even invited to the combine, showing that people thought he had a shot (unlike Danna and Glasgow). Maybe he doesn't improve his stock by coming back, but maybe he does enough to get on an All-B10 team and generate some buzz.
The other thing worth noting is that Shea didn't even make Ace's list of "UFA" types. I know he's taken a beating from the fan base and during the draft process....but I do wonder if he'll catch on to a practice squad given his raw skills and experience.
McKeon has been a victim of circumstances (from a Detroit News article):
"Sean McKeon is 6-foot-5, 242 pounds and was invited to the NFL Combine but couldn’t go through the drills because of a hamstring injury from the Citrus Bowl on Jan. 1 that was re-aggravated a few weeks later at the Senior Bowl. He was healthy and ready to be timed in the 40 during Michigan’s Pro Day in March but that was canceled because of the pandemic."
Glad I’m not the only one puzzled by Uche’s usage. Going into the season I thought he’d be playing with his hand in the dirt and exploding around left tackles all season.
McKeon is criminally underrated and will be a solid player. Not all-pro but I’ll bet he has a good career and maybe even starts.
A lot of people on this board hold DPJ responsible for Shea’s erratic play. Glad NFL scouts realize that it’s not DPJ’s fault that Shea Patterson was mediocre-to outright bad for much of his career here
If it wasn't (partly) DPJ's fault, he'd be projected to go a lot higher than the 80-120 range.
As Ace noted, there are real concerns about him, regardless of QB in terms of him being an above average NFL player.
DPJ's "lack of short-area quickness and difficulty in beating press coverage," knock confirms what my less educated eyes saw when I would focus on him through the lens of a binocular. Everyone remembers the handful of times he appeared to be open deep, and Shea missed him (which there were a few of), but play after play over the course of a game, he was not good at getting upon and nowhere near as good as either Black or Bell.
Neither of them lived up to their recruiting rankings or hype.
And when you have a bunch of highly-ranked recruits who are falling short of their projections, then it's the coaches not living up the hype.
Ronnie Bell was able to overcome Shea's limitations to produce 758 yards on 48 receptions, 15.8 YPC. DPJ didn't do that (34, 438, 12.9.) Why is this Shea's fault?
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/ronnie-bell-3.html
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/donovan-peoples-jones-1.html
Because Shea would ignore an open DPJ deep to throw short to Bell. I wonder about those stats on a per-target basis.
Sure he did.
I would draft Runyan and play him at guard before Bredeson. He'll be a starter for someone and a very good pick if it's late round.
I am shocked by the number of people here saying that scouts and draft projections are underrating a bunch of Michigan players /s
Can't wait for the college football season projections where y'all complain about being underrated there too!
Gettleman will fuck this up again, because the Giants have basically become the New York Knicks at this point.
Really? It looks like he nailed the Jones pick...he got ripped bad for it and Jones looks like a keeper.
I love the draft every year - affectionately known as the Lions Super Bowl. I'm extra excited right now due to it being sports and not a replay. I'm going to savor it for the next few days.
This draft really shows how well the prospect analysis was..... Simmons, Wills, Becton so far... Harbaugh knows talent...
This draft really shows how well the prospect analysis was..... Simmons, Wills, Becton so far... Harbaugh knows talent...
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