11/11/2023 – Michigan 24, Penn State 15 – 10-0, 7-0 Big Ten

Everyone I have talked to in the last two weeks has been furious. I have also been furious, of course, but other people have been so furious that I—me, myself—have been attempting to calm people down. I have asserted that the Big Ten would not wantonly screw Michigan out of a football game with refereeing; that maybe the guy who sounds like he's running a Taliban cell should take a step back; that leaving the Big Ten is an absurd—

…actually, no wait, I was just on WTKA asserting that leaving the Big Ten was now an eventual likelihood. I, too, have been overrun with the madness everyone else has been. And I'm just a guy on the internet.

Can you imagine being actually on the team swept up in all of this? For three weeks you've had various take-merchants descend upon this like so many deeply ignorant paratroopers. A select, deficient subset of these folks have asserted that Michigan shouldn't get to play in the CoFoPoff. I know what it's like to be a fan of this team and hear these things. I want to sink my incisors into Stephen A Smith's neck and raise his decapitated head to the skies as a trophy. How does Trevor Keegan feel, and how on God's green earth does he sit down in a stance before every play and not get a penalty for death-murder?

I do not know. 

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There's a great Andy Staples article in the aftermath of the 2017 Michigan-Penn State game—a 42-17 PSU demolition at the hands of Joe Moorhead and Saquon Barkley—that goes into great detail about the opening play. That was a 69-yard Barkley touchdown where Barkley took a direct snap and used Trace McSorley as a running back. As far as gambits went it was relatively short-lived; the next year Michigan stomped all of the inverse mesh points. But it had a thunderous debut, and I remember thinking Joe Moorhead was pretty good at his job specifically because of one thing:

The only detail remaining was to leave a crease for Barkley to escape through when he pulled the ball back from McSorley’s belly. That was achieved by having left tackle Ryan Bates pass set instead of run block. That drew defensive end Rashan Gary on an upfield rush and opened a seam to the left for Barkley.

At the time I was the person charting all of Rashan Gary's snaps and frequently complaining that Gary's desire to rush the passer—to demonstrate why he was the #1 recruit in America—frequently saw him shoot 10 yards upfield to the detriment of the Michigan defense. Moorhead saw that, too, and stuck a dagger in Michigan's belly on the first play. A chagrined Gary dialed it back.

What if the opposition was completely incapable of dialing it back? Things looked bad for Michigan after two drives because whoever lined up against Karsen Barnhart was instantly past him. Sherrone Moore adjusted. He literally stopped calling dropback passes and eventually stopped calling passes, period. Faced with third and ten he ran a crack sweep with his quarterback; faced with third and eleven he shot Donovan Edwards out the backside of a play where not one but two Penn State players were recklessly headed for the quarterback.

Nothing changed for Penn State. Not one thing. Michigan finally closed the door immediately after a Penn State four-and-out turnover on downs when Robinson, who so many centuries ago was marauding through the Michigan backfield, got blown out of a gap by trying to get upfield:

That is how Michigan called game.

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You could hear the emotion pouring off Sherrone Moore in his post-game interview. Our dude was weeping, thanking God, and dropping three cuss words on national television. Next to him, a bloodied Blake Corum stood, gently leaking onto the Beaver Stadium field. Michigan has been the subject of a month-long PR campaign attempting to spin a useless scheme executed by an overzealous staffer into the Greatest Scandal In Big Ten History, and the dullard currently running the conference bought it hook, line and sinker.

By the time the league finally acted, Jim Harbaugh was literally on a plane to Happy Valley. The entire Michigan universe is furious, and we're not even on the team.I have no idea what kind of rage players on the team must have felt. Their head coach is suspended right before a top-ten road matchup. The thing they've worked their whole lives for is under threat due to actions they knew nothing about and had nothing to do with. Their play since the scandal-type substance broke is indication enough that whatever Connor Stalions was doing had approximately zero impact on how good this football team is.

It is incredible that Michigan took all of that, bottled it up, coldly evaluated the way you lose to this Penn State team—a strip-sack—and then ran a second-half gameplan far removed from what anyone would recognize as winning football in 2023. They won with it.

On top of the injury Tony Petitti delivered, there was plenty of insult to go around. Penn State defenders were taunting Michigan with cringy sign-stealing celebrations. Their defensive coordinator made a similarly cringy joke on a hype video posted a couple days before the game. Michigan ate all of that. They shoved it into a hole. They did not spear a guy in the helmet from behind, or take two personal foul penalties on one play, or lose their cool in any discernible way. They just handled their business.

In the end, it was Penn State that could not gear down. It was Penn State that kept flinging guys across the line of scrimmage long after it was clear that Michigan was anticipating that. The home team lost the plot, not Michigan. The day after, James Franklin threw yet another Spinal Tap drummer under the bus by firing Mike Yurich. After all that, they're the shook ones.

Players will tell you they shut all the noise out. They don't. They can't. It's clear that Michigan has been steeping in the same poisonous online media spaces we all have been, from the team-wide "bet" tweets in the aftermath of the suspension to what Corum did when he shut the door on Penn State for good: the same thing Manny Diaz did. Except instead of "get there early," "be loud," and "especially on third down" they meant:

Time's up.

I can't hear you.

You're next, Third Base.

[Barron]

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

[Barron]

you're the man now, dog

#1 Blake Corum. 26 carries for 145 yards, 5.6 a pop, against what was statistically one of the best defenses in America, while Michigan was metaphorically holding up a big sign that said "RUN" on every second-half snap.

#2 Kenneth Grant. Four solo tackles as a NT; popped up early and often to clobber PSU run plays. Turned in the play of the game on defense when he ran down Kaytron Allen on PSU's only explosive play.

#3 The Offensive Line. See the Corum items above. Can't move them higher because Barnhart was the major reason Michigan held up the big RUN sign, but drop out the sack and the two kneeldowns and Michigan's output: 43 carries, 263 yards, 6.1 YPC, against a team coming off a game against Maryland where they "gave up" –49 yards.

Honorable mention: JJ McCarthy was efficient on his eight attempts and added 44 yards on 7 carries; AJ Barner was the main reason Corum's bounce went long; Donovan Edwards popped two explosives and narrowly missed a second touchdown; Rayshaun Benny had a TFL and forced a fumble; Will Johnson chased the only PSU receiver around.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

45: JJ McCarthy (#1 ECU, #1 UNLV, #2 Rutgers, HM Nebraska, #2 Minn, #1 IU, #1 MSU, HM PUR, HM PSU)
23: Kris Jenkins (HM ECU, T2 UNLV, #1 BGSU, HM Rutgers, #1 Neb, HM MSU)
18: Blake Corum (HM ECU, HM UNLV, #2 BGSU, HM Rutgers, HM Neb, HM IU, #1 PSU)
15: Mason Graham (HM ECU, T2 UNLV, #1 Minn, HM IU, HM MSU)
14: Roman Wilson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU, #3 Nebraska, #2 PUR)
13: Mike Sainristil (T3 ECU, HM BGSU, #1 Rutgers, HM IU, HM MSU)
11: Mike Barrett (HM UNLV, T3 Rutgers, #2 IU, T1 PUR), AJ Barner (HM BGSU, HM Neb, HM Minn, T3 IU, T2 MSU, HM PSU), Kenneth Grant (T3 ECU, T2 UNLV, #2 PSU)
10: Braiden McGregor(T3 UNLV, #2 Nebraska, T1 PUR)
9: Colston Loveland (HM Rutgers, T3 IU, T2 MSU, HM PUR)
7: Cornelius Johnson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU, HM Minn), Derrick Moore (T3 UNLV, HM Neb, HM MSU, T1 PUR), Will Johnson(#3 Minn, #3 PUR, HM PSU)
6: Junior Colson (#3 BGSU, T3 Rutgers, HM MSU), Jaylen Harrell (HM UNLV, HM BGSU, HM IU, T1 PUR)
4: Ernest Hausmann (T3 ECU, T3 Rutgers), Max Bredeson (HM Rutgers, HM Neb, T3 IU), Josiah Stewart (HM Minn, T1 PUR), The Offensive Line (HM Minn, #3 PSU)
2:  Josh Wallace (T3 ECU), Semaj Morgan (HM Rutgers, HM PUR), Donovan Edwards (HM ECU, HM PSU)
1: Tommy Doman (HM ECU), Tyler Morris (HM UNLV), Quinten Johnson (HM Rutgers), Kalel Mullings (HM Minn),Keon Sabb (HM Minn), Ben Hall (HM IU), Rod Moore (HM PUR), Rayshaun Benny (HM PSU)

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

THE DON [Barron]

Sherrone Moore shows Manny Diaz his liver with a third-and-eleven run from just outside the redzone that Donovan Edwards cashes for a touchdown and a 14-3 lead.

Honorable mention: Corum calls game. Rayshaun Benny punches a ball out that Makari Paige falls on.

MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK

Karsen Barnhart gives up three –2 pass pro events in the first four potential pass pro events, leading me and probably many others to believe that Michigan was totally boned.

Honorable mention: Quinten Johnson INT is (correctly) overturned, which makes the Michael Barrett penalty a first down, which eventually leads to a touchdown, which prevents the score from looking like the game, which irritates me a great deal. Cam Goode's spectacular pass rush turns into a first down because he overruns the dude. Officials inexplicably overturn a running into the kicker penalty that would have given Michigan a first down. PSU scores a QB draw TD on which Mason Graham is obviously, materially held.

NICK SAMAC PATHETIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK

I don't know, maybe the Big Ten suspending Jim Harbaugh as he was literally on a plane to Happy Valley. Maybe the fanciful notion that suspending Harbaugh is a sanction against the University because he embodies the football team. Maybe pretending like this penny-ante bullshit is Endangering The Student Athletes. Maybe everything Tony Petitti has done since becoming Big Ten commissioner. I really thought I wouldn't be handing this out on a weekly basis but we're not off to a great start.

Dishonorable mention: N/A

OFFENSE

[Barron]

The play that changed the game. Michigan's down 3-0, they've got a third and ten, Joel Klatt is busy telestrating how the bunch set Michigan is in will at least force PSU's DEs to go further around Barnhart to get to McCarthy. And then:

I'll get into this more in UFR but Morgan's motion takes away one defender and then PSU is so intent on stopping the potential zone read keep that on the snap three PSU defenders end up behind the last M OL. From there it's hat on a hat and a conversion. And a new world.

All too easy [Barron]

Manny can't help himself. The play immediately after that was the first Edwards explosive. Michigan has their heavy package in: 7 OL, two tight ends. Just watch the left half of the PSU defense:

three PSU players to the bottom

All three of those guys shoot straight upfield and are gone, giving Edwards the world's largest cutback lane. PSU then gets Michigan into a third down. Manny sends six guys across the LOS and his tricksy changeup is dropping a guy into the flat to the boundary; Semaj Morgan is untouched by anyone not named Trevor Keegan until he's well past the sticks:

This drive was capped off by Penn State going "argh, we've only got eleven guys" when presented with yet another Michigan front with infinite gaps. They ran a twelfth on; Michigan got three yards anyway.

The bounce. Similar deal on the 42-yarder for Corum: the entire defense is flinging itself upfield, in part because Michigan has the huge set on and you've got guys who know they'll lose one on one if they play it straight. The two guys on the left side of the line are Tyler Elsdon, who is 229 pounds, and Dom DeLuca, who is 218. Elsdon ends up on the ground in the backfield; DeLuca is trying so hard to not get blown out by Barner that he entirely fails to set an edge.

Head down, off balance, no thought to setting the edge: DeLuca is playing this like it's fourth and goal from the one and he has to gamble. That's PSU's defense in a nutshell.

The big yikes. Michigan saw three Karsen Barnhart pass pro snaps on which PSU DEs teleported to McCarty on their first two drives and decided they weren't going to run a dropback pass the rest of the game. The game previews have that section about worrying/cackling that's supposed to highlight areas of the game where expectations could turn in a hurry, and ahyup:

Worry if...

• PSU DEs are teleporting past Michigan tackles.

I felt pretty pretty bad about things after those first couple drives, and then Sherrone And The Big Big Boys came out and ground Penn State to dust.

Our concern, now, dude, is what happens in two weeks. I am here to say you should tamp down on the panic for a couple different reasons. One is that Barnhart has already played the OSU DEs and came out of last year's game with a total of 2 pass pro minuses. (PFF has one of the most bizarre grades I can remember for that game: they charged Barnhart with two pressures surrendered on 27 dropbacks and gave him a grade of 5. Out of 100.) JTT and Sawyer have improved this year but I don't think it's going to be a bloodbath like PSU's ends were able to issue. Both of those guys are bigger speed to power types instead of the pure edge get-off guys PSU has, and when Barnhart has gone up against very good versions of those players this year he has hung in.

Two is that this was Michigan's first (and last) road game at a venue where the crowd was a real problem. Michigan has been very good all year about getting out of the huddle early and using their varied clap snap counts to neutralize get-off and get semi-frequent free plays. At Penn State Michigan went to a silent count for the first time all year, leading to various issues. One of those was DEs looking at the ball getting out of their stance before Barnhart, who was looking at the DEs.

Dennis-Sutton moves first there. He's not supposed to get to move first. The third and final teleport issue saw Chop Robinson move before anyone on Michigan's OL, including the center who, you know, snapped the ball.

That said, this is what I was concerned about in the season preview when I said Barnhart was the Cade McNamara amongst the four starting-ish tackles. I think he will hang in against OSU, but a mediocre run game score around 0 and 5-7 pass pro minuses is probably the best case scenario. The second teleport wasn't a get-off issue, it was just Barnhart getting roasted.

The difference. Both teams had first and goal from the three in this game. Penn State got stuffed on first down and threw on second and third, then kicked a field goal. Michigan punched it in easily on first down.

DEFENSE

[Barron]

Also a controlled demolition. I must admit some early irritations at Michigan's insistence on sitting back with two deep safeties and general lack of OSU-style utter contempt for the Penn State receiving corps. Michigan allowed a number of effective runs because they were fine with PSU getting to double a DT for a long period of time and at no point got particularly aggressive. If they were so inclined they could have throttled the PSU offense even more than they did.

They were not inclined; they continue to run a relatively conservative defense aimed primarily at containing Ohio State—not a typo—and forcing them into third down after third down after third down if they want to drive the field. Even their short yardage stops weren't aggressive. Michigan forces a punt here on a QB run; PSU has a hat for a hat as Michigan runs a six man box:

Penn State's lone touchdown drive that meant anything was a rickety contraption that required two fourth down conversions, one of them on a throwback to the quarterback, and a flagrantly missed hold on Mason Graham. This game was much closer to 30-6 than a competitive final score.

The long run. Two main issues. One: Derrick Moore gets sealed instantly and is not helpful stringing the play out. Two: Michael Barrett does not funnel to help. If Barrett gets outside of the second puller either Grant or Colson gets him down after 5-6 yards. Speaking of…

Holy Mother Of God, Kenneth Grant. You author heard the "this guy just got drafted" music during this play:

That is a holy lock to be on his draft reel. Also:

Hmmmmmmmm https://t.co/8rZQ9qsLaF

— Sherrone Moore (@Coach_SMoore) November 12, 2023

We got dang close to the 10 OL + Orji package in this game. I will revise my request to 10 OL + Kenneth Grant.

[Barron]

A preview? One thing that jumped out: Will Johnson in the slot. This has not happened all year, but there he was on Penn State's first third down:

CB #2 over slot to bottom

He's there because KeAndre Lambert-Smith is there, and he is the only Penn State receiver worth worrying about. Johnson followed Lambert-Smith around for much of the day, and Lambert-Smith did nothing. The mind naturally projects this approach a couple weeks down the road and envisions Johnson following Marvin Harrison Jr around.

Two problems with that: one is that Emeka Egbuka is also a first-round talent. The second is that Johnson in the slot was a man coverage giveaway every time. Michigan has been playing Mike Sainristil on the outside with some frequency this year, so the only thing they need to have a curveball is for Johnson to be able to execute some zone drops from the slot.

Rotation: reduced! It very much did not seem like Michigan had tightened their silly deep rotation live since Cam Goode, Rayshaun Benny, and Quinten Johnson kept popping up on crucial plays but, yes, the rotation did get tightened up. Somewhat. DT snaps: Graham 43, Grant 33, Jenkins 32, Goode 18, Benny 14.

DE snaps remained split approximately 50/50 between the four contenders. Colson and Barrett had 54 and 58 snaps, respectively, with Hausmann picking up 17 largely thanks to some short yardage packages. CBs other than Wallace, Sainristil, and Johnson did not appear; Quinten Johnson had 19 snaps and Sabb 11.

Covering grass. Colson's old bugaboo showed up on PSU's late touchdown. Michigan had him in a robber zone in the middle of the field and he just stayed in a spot when drifting towards the tight end is a PBU or INT.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Eh? Not a whole lot to talk about. Some punts went back and forth. PSU had a fairly good return called back for a relevant hold. The other special teams event belongs in the next category because it is a ref event.

MISCELLANEOUS

please ask me questions about the dumb stuff i did, not the okay stuff [Barron]

FRAMES! The third segment of our podcast used to have a lot of discussion about game theory stuff, but of late football coaches have been close to 100% correct on decisions that aren't a coinflip so all that rabbling about going for it on fourth down has given way to a brief "any game theory stuff?" followed by a "no," and then we move on. But Frames. Frames always provides content. Thank you Frames.

There were five points of interest for PSU in this game:

• Punting on fourth and inches on his own 34 early in the second quarter.
• Going for two after scoring late in the first half; PSU failed and was down 14-9.
• Punting on fourth and three on their own 45 at the end of the third quarter, down 17-9.
• Going for it on fourth and six on their own 30 with about eight minutes left.
• Going for two after scoring with two minutes left down nine; this also failed so PSU was down nine and had to onside kick.

Ironically, the one impregnably correct decision Franklin made—the second decision to go for two—was the one he caught heat for in the postgame press conference. That decision was fairly close to the platonic ideal of the go-for-it-early camp, because PSU immediately knew that they had to go onside since they were down two scores. If they get the two point conversion they could kick it deep, play D, and try to score with about a minute left on the clock.

For purposes of making people finally stop tweeting at me about this it would have been better if PSU had another minute and another timeout, making the kick-it-deep scenario more plausible in the event of a made two-pointer. Alas.

As for the other decisions: the early decision to punt was probably correct given the game state, the fact your offense blows, and your defense is rad. Arguing against is that the distance was clearly in QB sneak territory. I'd want Michigan to go there, because they are Michigan. Penn State? I'm not so sure. Ditto the fourth and three punt. If your offense is not completely broken, you go. But it is.

This set of facts about PSUs offense and defense also makes the first decision to go for two completely indefensible. If you're Oregon and the final score of your game is going to be 52-48, sure, whatever, have fun. If you are Penn State your shot at converting from the three is not the 50/50 that people commonly use when evaluating these decisions. It's much worse, and the upside is… what, exactly? If you kick a field goal and Michigan doesn't score again you're tied? FOH.

Similarly, the decision to go on fourth and six from your own thirty was suicide. You're not in a good spot either way but chances are you get the ball back; given the state of the offense the chances of conversion were slim and the chances of getting the ball back were even better than normal.

I genuinely wonder if there's a Vegas adjustment for "James Franklin is going to do something dumb" in the lines. Doesn't seem like it.

Didn't get jobbed, but… Michigan was on the wrong end of the two most consequential non-calls of the game. Penn State's first half touchdown is 98% a field goal if the hold on Graham is called, and Michigan was robbed of a possession when the officials inexplicably picked up a running into/roughing the kicker flag, claiming that a guy who had flung himself over Michigan's wall had been blocked into Tommy Doman.

I cannot imagine that is the way that rule is supposed to be applied, because that gives license to defenders to recklessly hurl themselves over blockers. If they get touched on the way through, anything that happens after isn't their fault. Kyle strikes again.

We did it. We made it on to Art But Make It Sports:

The Man of Sorrows, by James Ensor, 1891, by @CoachBenHerbert pic.twitter.com/lJQqbu2eMu

— ArtButMakeItSports (@ArtButSports) November 11, 2023

LFG.

HERE

Best and Worst:

…after the game Sherrone Moore showed some emotion during his interview, tearing up while professing his appreciation for this team and Jim Harbaugh with some colorful fucking language.  It was one of the more genuine displays of emotions you’ll see out of a coach in today’s game.

But because you’ve all been on the internet before, you already know how this was received by a subset of people out there.  Matt Fortuna, who apparently has a newsletter about college football but has never heard about Hugh Freeze, opined that this display of callous disregard for (checks notes) the ears of college football players might cost him a job.  Dan Dakich, yes that Dan Dakich but also THAT Dan Dakich, opined about the loss of masculinity because of Moore’s outburst, because the person we definitely should listen about handling his emotions is a guy who yells at college swimmers online and got fired for calling a HS student a meth head.  Feel free to look up his tweet if you want; I already feel gross sending traffic to Elon Musk’s failed mid-life crisis without also signal-boosting a dipshit who weirdly didn’t have much to say about Ryan Day voice-cracking his way through an interview earlier this year.  Sort of a mystery why one coach’s display of emotion was deeply offensive to Mr. Dakich and not the other, but I’ll leave that sleuthing up to the intrepid Twitter timeline searcher.

But the mere fact that this display of emotion, that caring about something as cosmically inconsequential as who wins or losses a football game, is “bad” has always bugged me.

State of our Open Threads:

Speaking of us being excitable, let's talk about fucks given:

The precise number of fucks given yesterday was 475 - some of you may have given some offline. I did certainly. This obliterates the previous season high, which was 158 for the Purdue game, and indeed, yesterday's total moves the season average from 85 to 122 by itself. It was a lot of fucks, but we had a lot of occasion to use that word. The usage varied from discontent with the conference, to Tony Petitti personally, to the refs, to the strategic abandonment of passing, plus several more. The larger point is that emotions were high among the fanbase as well, and it certainly showed.

Iowatch!

Here’s a fun fact: Iowa has not lost to Rutgers with Brian Ferentz as OC. Iowa won 22-0, Deacon “Happy Learned How to Putt Uh Oh” Hill increased his season’s passing total by almost 50%...and I refuse to describe this game any further. You know how Iowa wins games. It was a bloodbath.

I’ve called Greg Schiano “one of the best game planners in the conference.” Schiano agrees, and say what you like about the dude (believe me I will), self-esteem is not one of his issues. It doesn’t take conference-wide collaboration to figure out that Iowa’s offense has only two signs: 1) “not in the face!”, and 2) "not in the gonads!” But. The Iowa defense likewise has two signals: 1) “kick him in the crotch, dammit, the crotch!”, and 2) “if you let my football go now, that will be the end of it…”. Didn’t plan on that, did ya?

A report from Happy Valley:

PSU fans remarkably nice: My neighbor in DC is from Detroit and went to UM.  He always goes to the Maryland and Rutgers games when in the region.  I asked him about PSU and he said he went once, and that it was such a horrible experience with the fans whom he said “were animals” that he would never go again (he’s African American, so maybe I got a different experience). But, for us, the PSU fans were lovely, talkative, funny, helpful.

Change is Death.