Big Ten Reset: Conference Play Begins
Yesterday's Michigan-Penn State game served as the opener to the Big Ten season as a whole. Before the rest of the conference tips off tonight, let's check in on each of the teams and stick them in tiers. If you remember, we did a preseason roundtable that included some comically large tiers as we tried to make sense of a tightly packed conference:
TITLE FREE-FOR-ALL
Wisconsin
Illinois
Iowa
Michigan State
Ohio State
MichiganSCRABBLING FOR BID
Rutgers
Indiana
Purdue
Maryland
MinnesotaEATEN ALIVE
Penn State
Northwestern
Nebraska
There's been some movement since then despite a relative dearth of marquee games, especially outside of the ACC/B1G Challenge.
The Standings
Here's how KenPom's and Bart Torvik's rankings have the Big Ten stacking up so far, with the caveat that we're still early enough in the season that preseason projections remain a significant factor. Michigan and Penn State are the only teams to play a conference game so far (that changes tonight when Rutgers travels to Maryland) so you're not missing anything with B1G records omitted from the table. Yes, if you were checking the front page around 12:30 today, you may recognize this table.
KP/Torvik Avg | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | Nat Rk | Rec (Proj) | KenPom | Torvik | KenPom | Torvik | ||
WIS | 7th | 4-1 (12.5-7.5) | 19th | 16th | 8th | 13th | ||
IOWA | 9th | 6-0 (12.5-7.5) | 1st | 1st | 77th | 123rd | ||
IND | 13th | 4-2 (11.5-8.5) | 37th | 43th | 11th | 5th | ||
ILL | 14th | 4-2 (12-8) | 10th | 7th | 32nd | 34th | ||
U-M | 15th | 6-0 (12-8) | 7th | 12th | 35th | 36th | ||
MSU | 21st | 6-0 (11-9) | 9th | 22th | 42nd | 32nd | ||
OSU | 21st | 5-0 (11-9) | 12th | 8th | 39th | 57th | ||
RUT | 30th | 4-0 (10-10) | 55th | 56th | 13th | 16th | ||
PUR | 39th | 4-2 (9-11) | 30th | 59th | 38th | 29th | ||
PSU | 45th | 3-2 (9-11) | 34th | 42nd | 53rd | 45th | ||
UMD | 46th | 4-1 (9.5-10.5) | 18th | 38th | 57th | 77th | ||
MIN | 51st | 6-0 (8.5-11.5) | 39th | 74th | 44th | 44th | ||
NWern | 66th | 2-1 (6.5-13.5) | 86th | 70th | 54th | 51st | ||
NEB | 104th | 3-3 (4.5-15.5) | 138th | 132nd | 100th | 62nd |
The conference somehow managed to group itself closer together. So much for clarity.
Onto the tiers, I guess. Please remember that, despite the size of these tiers, the order within each tier matters less than which tier a team falls into. The distinction between a lot of these teams, at least for the moment, is minimal.
[Hit THE JUMP.]
Tier I: The Middle Of The Free-For-All
I, too, am alarmed and disgusted [Campredon]
IOWA. Goodness gracious. Luka Garza leads every player of the year list so far; he's averaging 29.2 points and 9.0 rebounds in only 25 minutes per game. The closest game they've played was a 13-point win over #25 North Carolina. They hammered #78 Iowa State, 105-77, in a rivalry game. They have the #1 offense in the country, the #12 eFG%, the #4 turnover rate, and the #13 offensive rebound rate. They're shooting 59% on twos and 40% from downtown. They've scored at least 93 points in every game. The offense is terrifying, full stop.
Now, is this a national title contender? It's still unclear. They have the #77 defense on KenPom and Torvik puts them way down at #123. Their two above-average defensive performances came against #343 Western Illinois and #296 Northern Illinois. The two remotely viable offenses they've faced don't have much shooting. Iowa hasn't played outside of Carver-Hawkeye Arena yet.
We're going to get a chance to draw big conclusions from a one-game sample when the Hawkeyes face #1 Gonzaga in Sioux Falls, South Dakota (for some reason?) on Saturday in the marquee game of the week anywhere in the country. The Zags have the #2 offense in the country.
WISCONSIN. The Badgers aren't as dominant on either end of the court as Iowa is on offense—spoiler: that applies to everyone—but they're a much more balanced team, which has kept them ahead of the Hawkeyes by a smidge in the ratings. Their top five players by minutes played are all seniors and it shows; they're playing remarkably sound basketball. Micah Potter and Nate Reuvers have been a great one-two punch at center and they've been dominant on defense in the time they've shared the court. (Lineups with just one of them on the court have been better on offense and merely "extremely good" on defense.)
Yes, the Badgers have a loss on the ledger, but it came by two points at in-state rival #43 Marquette, and they've taken care of the rest of the schedule with ease. After beating #74 Rhode Island, they're squeezing in a sixth non-conference game against #52 Loyola Chicago before opening Big Ten play next Monday against Nebraska.
MICHIGAN. You're familiar with these guys. The gap between Indiana, Illinois, and Michigan on the fancystats sites is minuscule. While the Wolverines don't have a win on par with the Illini beating (a disappointing) #12 Duke at Cameron or Indiana taking down #31 Stanford by 16 on a neutral floor, they've been the most consistent team and I like their combination of upside and depth the most. Also, I flat-out don't trust the Hoosiers, whose resumé is largely propped up by a 21-point blowout of a Providence team that's dropped 18 spots on KenPom since that game.
ILLINOIS. They have the aforementioned win at Duke, though that lost some luster when they followed it up with a three-point rivalry loss at #38 Mizzou on Saturday. The alarming aspect of this weekend's defeat was that both Ayo Donsunmu (36 points on 26 shooting possessions) and Kofi Cockburn (19 on 13 poss.) were able to score at will, freshman Andre Curbelo added double-digit points for the fourth time in five games, and they still fell short because the rest of the team was invisible, scoring a combined nine points.
Tier II: The Fringe Of The Free-For-All
this is... working? maybe? [Campredon]
INDIANA. It feels unfair not to include a top-15 team on the fancystats sites as a contender but it's early in the season and... really, Archie Miller's Hoosiers? Them? Trust? No. I refuse. That blowout of Providence, which also lost by 17 against Alabama on a neutral floor, is doing way too much work for them right now.
That said, the defense seems legit, even though they're getting some unsustainable three-point luck. Size and athleticism have never been major problems for IU even in down years and this team is no exception. They have a true star in sophomore big Trayce Jackson-Davis, who's averaging 21 points and nine boards; he's second behind only Garza in KenPom's Player of the Year standings.
Four issues give me significant pause.
- IU's guard play is still inefficient even though none of them are taking on big offensive roles
- The bench has been downright bad
- That includes five-star freshman Khristian Lander, who's 5/24 from the field so far
- Archie Miller remains their coach
Have I mentioned I don't trust them?
MICHIGAN STATE. This may also be unfair given the Spartans are 6-0 and tend to pick up steam as the season goes along. So far, though, they haven't been particularly dominant. Rocket Watts has been fantastic in many aspects stepping in as the lead guard for Cassius Winston, but his three-point shot isn't falling, and Aaron Henry hasn't taken well to a more prominent role yet. Gabe Brown is a deadeye spot-up shooter who still hasn't developed much of a game inside the arc. Foster Loyer plays nearly half the team's minutes and even, inexplicably, started a couple games over Watts.
Marquette transfer Joey Hauser has been a great addition to the frontcourt; he's been remarkably efficient shooting both inside and outside the arc, pulled down a lot of rebounds, moved the ball well, and pretty much done everything except block shots. Therein lies the rub. MSU doesn't have a truly complete frontcourt player, let alone a settled frontcourt rotation. Marcus Bingham is still a stick who can block shots and otherwise drive Tom Izzo mad. Thomas Kithier is experienced but makes little impact on the box score. Julius Marble is 6'8/225 and has yet to record a block or a steal this season. Malik Hall is a wallflower when he's not grabbing rebounds.
Will they figure it out? Probably, but the condensed season won't help Izzo this year, and this team has a number of holes. While they'll be dangerous as always in the postseason as Izzo's iron-sharpens-iron approach takes hold and the rotation tightens, I'm not sure this is going to be a very good regular season team.
OHIO STATE. The Bucks are another team we could use a lot more data on. They've played one opponent ranked above the 200s on KenPom, coming back from an 11-point deficit in the second half to win at #75 Notre Dame. While they showed their mettle by clawing back into the game, that's not exactly a signature win. The Irish scored 1.27 points per possession. The undersized Buckeyes let the Irish shoot nine percentage points above their season average from two-point range while still flamethrowing them from beyond the arc.
EJ Liddell has been one of the pleasant surprises of this young season and the Buckeyes boast one of the conference's better, more balanced offensive attacks. I'm not sure how they hold up on defense when none of their main big men are taller than 6'8 or particularly lauded as a defender.
Tier III: The Meaty Middle
Penn State made Michigan earn one [Campredon]
RUTGERS. Around 55th on offense and 15th on defense. They are who we thought they were. Their only notable game of the season was a win over Syracuse that I refused to watch on moral and aesthetic grounds. Ron Harper Jr. is showing signs of a major breakout year, averaging 22 and 8 while shooting 71% on twos and 46% on threes. Jacob Young has been—relatively efficient on high usage? Far less prone to exploding in every direction? This is no fun.
PENN STATE. I'm going with Torvik over KenPom, as the former has PSU ahead of Purdue instead of vice versa. We just saw that PSU is going to be a handful this year with their outside shooting ability and dogged perimeter defense. I'm fully on board with Brian's suggestion that they let freshman Adbou Tsimbila play until he fouls out of every game to help their underwhelming center production but that can only help so much if he's going to continue averaging (double takes) (triple takes) FOURTEEN POINT ONE FOULS PER 40 MINUTES. That said, he also has an unheard-of block rate of 28.7%(!!!). He's fun! Play him more! You're Penn State! The alternative is Trent Buttrick!
PURDUE. The Boilermakers lost both of their quality non-conference games and have struggled to get center/centerpiece Trevion Williams going. They've got some dangerous pieces, though. Sasha Stefanovic is hitting over half his threes and looks more lethal than ever from distance. Freshman Brandon Newman is making over 40% of his triples. Behemoth 7'4 center Zach Edey looks like the next Isaac Haas. He's made 30/40 FGs and blocked five shots; he's also turned it over 17 times and committed 20 fouls in six games, so he's got to tighten up his game before he can spell Williams for long periods of time.
MINNESOTA. Again, ever-so-slightly disagreeing with the metrics on this one but I like Marcus Carr more than any single player on Maryland. He's very close to 50/40/80 shooting splits despite being the focal point of the Gopher attack. Utah transfer Both Gach has made a major impact, as well. If Gabe Kalscheur can bounce back from an awful start and start looking like the guy who was one of the Big Ten's best freshmen two years ago, this team could make some noise.
MARYLAND. This is another team whose center position really concerns me come Big Ten season. The Terps are either rolling with the steady, unspectacular, undersized option in 6'9, 235-pound senior Galin Smith or the enormous rim protector who's still working to get a literal grip on basketball in 7'2 sophomore Chol Marial. Meanwhile, their most effective perimeter players have been their less assertive ones. They got smacked at Clemson in their only real test so far. Still, there's a decent amount of talent if Mark Turgeon can fit the pieces together and this is a team that should get more comfortable playing together as they get used to life without Anthony Cowan and Jalen Smith.
Tier IV: Woof
NORTHWESTERN. The Wildcats drew the layup of the ACC Challenge, Pitt, a team that lost eight of their last nine games last year and entered the game ranked 91st on KenPom. Northwestern had home court advantage and opened the game with a ~75% win probability. Here's how that went:
Ah, well, nevertheless.
Maybe now that NU's athletic director is taking over as commissioner of the ACC they can fire Chris Collins and bring back Bill Carmody.
NEBRASKA. A bombs-away squad with scattershot aim. Ranked significantly lower than Northwestern. Please don't ask me to talk about them further. Thank you.
December 14th, 2020 at 4:55 PM ^
What a conference. Is the Big Ten the SEC of basketball, but honest?
December 15th, 2020 at 9:49 AM ^
My post got negged so I guess I didn't make my point clear.
The Big Ten is POWERFUL in basketball, and—the evidence suggests—its programs don't cheat.
December 14th, 2020 at 5:02 PM ^
That chart totally makes sense now!
December 14th, 2020 at 5:15 PM ^
Are we expecting to have a better than average 3-point shooting team this year to go with an improved inside game and great defense?
December 14th, 2020 at 6:31 PM ^
Yes, as expected wtih the departures of Simpson and Teske, this team is shooting above average from 3 and with Dickinson, they've been stellar inside.
They have a very good defense but also as expected with the departures of Simpson and Teske, and with a higher tempo, higher turnover style, they are not an elite, top 10 defense.
December 14th, 2020 at 5:17 PM ^
I like the term “scrabbling for a bid”. I really hope we hit the triple word score on a couple of these teams.
December 14th, 2020 at 5:19 PM ^
Funny how we don't even consider the 104th team a thing. Most years aren't we clamoring for a top 100 opponent instead of a body bag school? Its great to be a basketball school. Also when you are ranked behind 5 teams there really isn't anything to lose through conference play. Almost every game is a resume builder. Win 3 out of 5 as an underdog and its considered a good run yes?
December 14th, 2020 at 6:41 PM ^
Definitely way better to have played MAC teams (and UCF) in the 100s rather than teams in the 300s but we usually also sprinkle in some ranked / tourney-ish teams and there were none of those this year.
And yes, 60% in conference, i.e. 12-8 would be quite good. Probably enough for a 4 or 5 seed.
December 14th, 2020 at 5:36 PM ^
EJ Liddell is out indefinitely with a non-COVID illness. OSU boards say mono. Completely changes their trajectory if he misses a big chunk of the season.
December 14th, 2020 at 7:24 PM ^
I was wondering why Ace didn't mention that.
December 15th, 2020 at 12:57 PM ^
Jalen Rose says it because he is ducking having to play us. Even in jest that sounds petty. Damn if Herbstreit isn't the devil in a nice suit. Les Miles coaching search and Covid game cancelation peaked his horns a bit.
December 14th, 2020 at 5:59 PM ^
It’s the Table for Ace! Oh how I’ve missed you.
December 14th, 2020 at 6:35 PM ^
Great work Tim!
December 14th, 2020 at 6:02 PM ^
You have to scroll through about half of the Big Ten conference to find a team projected to finish sub .500 in conference play. That team is currently ranked 30th in the country by KP/Torvik (Rutgers). If you were simply curious about how good the rest of the conference looks, you could scroll all the way down to team number 12 in that table, and you would find Minnesota, a team projected to finish about a game or so under .500 in conference...ranked 51st by KP/Torvik. The number 12 team in the conference is basically in the top 50 in the nation. I know it’s early in the year and a lot of these teams will drop and play each other etc, but this is insane
December 14th, 2020 at 6:32 PM ^
Michigan seems surprisingly high...but I'll take it! Fancystats never lie...right?
December 14th, 2020 at 7:13 PM ^
Replace ohio state with Rutgers.
December 14th, 2020 at 7:25 PM ^
To clarify, Wisconsin isn't adding a 6th game because that isn't allowed. I believe their game this week against Northern Iowa was called off so they are trying to fill that spot.
December 14th, 2020 at 9:13 PM ^
Ohio State is overrated. Barely beat a really really really bad Cleveland State team and just doesn't look like a ranked team. PSU is alot better team then you have them in your rankings. They will be fighting for a tournament bid. There going to be a tough team all year for most teams. They beat #15 Va. Tech by 20. I know it is only one game but they are a good center away from being a top 25 team.
December 14th, 2020 at 9:22 PM ^
No matter how many times people say it I refuse to believe "Trent Buttrick" is a real name.
Also, Iowa feels like one of those teams that will burn the face off teams when the shots are falling but will look really bad if the shots aren't falling or they have to struggle to get open. Wisconsin feels like the way more complete team and I wouldn't be surprised if they take the conference title in the end. Also, MSU will be annoying in the postseason but this team doesn't seem to have that vintage Izzo flavor of a team that really figures it out in the end and beats better teams with guile and experience. Probably still good for top-4 in the league but they are not the #4 team in the country.
December 14th, 2020 at 11:26 PM ^
placing Michigan above rutgers is quite chauvinistic. They're ranked higher than us and looked great tonight. Just sayin....
December 15th, 2020 at 9:07 AM ^
UM is ranked higher on Kenpom. All hail, Kenpom.
December 15th, 2020 at 5:44 AM ^
foster loyer has started games over rocket watts? somewhere, jaren jackson is cry-laughing. big, ugly sobs.
December 15th, 2020 at 10:13 AM ^
I'm sorry, I love watching this team, they're really fun, but putting them in the top tier at this point when they haven't left Crisler and haven't beaten anyone better than Penn State (which is decent but has the air of a 10 seed you hope to not see on your side of the bracket) seems puffery, particularly given that all the teams around them, both in tier and below, have played more competitive games, many on the road.
We know that they've figured out how to play through Dickinson, which is impressive given that few of these players have played in a post-centered offense. It looks like they can handle the pressure of a close game (at home). We know that they can defend (limited) offensive teams. But we don't know how the offense works when teams are able to physically deal with Dickinson and we don't know how much their limited perimeter ball handling is going to hamper them offensively. We don't know if Wagner's and Livers's struggles will get better. We likely won't know where UM falls until they face interior players who Dickinson doesn't physically overmatch (Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Rutgers, MSU). Until then, middle of second tier seems much more their place.
December 15th, 2020 at 12:27 PM ^
It's kenpom obsession syndrome. No way are we a tier above MSU or Rutgers. We went to OT against Oakland at home. MSU easily beat Duke on the road.
December 15th, 2020 at 10:43 AM ^
Illinois' win over Duke at Cameron is a quality win, but Sparty's win over Duke at Cameron isn't even worth a mention? #DISRESPEKT!
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