rocket watts

While Michigan's 2021-22 roster is mostly set, the same can't be said for much of the Big Ten—or, really, most programs in the country between a packed transfer portal, the pandemic year option for seniors to return without counting against the scholarship cap, and up-in-the-air NBA Draft decisions.

There's been a lot of movement over the last few days, including this morning's announcement that Northwestern shooter Miller Kopp is transferring within the conference to Indiana. This week, I'll be going over where each Big Ten program's roster stands in alphabetical order, and I'll rank each team's current outlook at the end. Here are some important dates to keep in mind as players make decisions about their future:

• May 30: Last day to apply for NBA Draft as an early entry
• June 21-27: NBA Draft Combine
• July 19: Last day for early entry to withdraw from NBA Draft

I made sure to note which players intend to sign with an agent, making them ineligible to withdraw, and which have left the door open to come back to school. I've also noted which players are in the transfer portal—which, as Indiana has displayed, doesn't prevent a return—and which have chosen another school. Returning seniors able to use the COVID waiver for an extra year are referred to as "super seniors."

Illinois

Key departures: G Ayo Dosunmu (draft w/ agent), F Giorgi Bezhanishvili (draft or overseas), W Adam Miller (transfer)
Key additions/super seniors: G Trent Frazier (super senior), C Omar Payne (Florida transfer), G Alfonso Plummer (Utah transfer)
Up in the air: C Kofi Cockburn (draft w/o agent), W Da'Monte Williams (possible super senior)

The Illini are going to look very different next season. Ayo Dosunmu is hiring an agent for the draft and won't be back. Kofi Cockburn also isn't expected to return after declaring over the weekend—it's rare for a player to return when they test the draft waters a second time, which is the case with Cockburn. Giorgi Bezhanishvili is going to the professional ranks too, though his role diminished in conjunction with Cockburn's emergence.

In a surprise move, former top-50 recruit Adam Miller entered the transfer portal despite starting all 31 games as a freshman. He hasn't said much since entering the portal and has been connected with Arizona, DePaul, Kentucky, and Michigan, though that seems largely based on his recruitment out of high school. He showed promise as a spot-up shooter and defender.

Brad Underwood added another former top-50 recruit in Florida transfer Omar Payne, who's mostly come off the bench in his first two seasons and was passed by Michigan transfer Colin Castleton in 2020-21. Payne blocks a lot of shots but is still quite raw; not that this is a fair comparison, but he won't come close to replicating Cockburn's production. (He may, however, try to take someone's head off.) Illinois needs big leaps from sophomores Coleman Hawkins and Jacob Grandison to have an above-average frontcourt as things stand; they're a strong candidate to hit the transfer portal for another big.

Getting Trent Frazier back for a fifth year helped shore up a backcourt that'll dearly miss Dosunmu, as did this weekend's addition of Utah grad transfer Alfonso Plummer, a 6'1 guard who's a career 40% three-point shooter on high volume and a teammate of Illini guard Andre Curbelo on the Puerto Rico national team. That helps offset the loss of Miller on offense and then some, though the undersized Plummer is unlikely to match him as a defender—his defensive metrics from Utah aren't good.

The Illini don't have much in the way of instant-impact freshmen unless someone plays above their ranking. The three-player 2021 class is headlined by a pair of 6'7 small forwards who both slipped just inside the top 100 on the 247 Composite, though recent three-star SG signee Brandon Podziemski has significantly differing opinions on his talent after posting huge numbers against underwhelming Wisconsin high school competition.

It's hard not to see this team taking a significant step back in 2022. There isn't another Dosunmu or Cockburn coming in, or even an Adam Miller. The next couple years of Underwood's tenure may make or break his time in Champaign.

[Hit THE JUMP for Indiana's wild offseason, Iowa's rough one, MSU's impact transfer, and more.]

Previously: The Usual Categories, The Official Big Ten Awards Roundtable

Alright, let's get weird.

Regular Season Awards: The Unusual Categories

BEST SURPRISE: EJ LIDDELL, OHIO STATE

For the player who's most exceeded preseason expectations, which isn't quite the same thing as most improved player.

Not much has changed since I gave this same award to him midway through the conference season:

We barely mentioned Liddell in our season preview roundtable, and while I had a chance to look smart when I finally brought him up, I blew it by only bringing him up in the context of being undersized for his position. The 6'7" post player has improved in nearly every meaningful statistical category despite getting most of his minutes at center instead of his more natural fit at power forward. ...

Instead of Liddell being a reason OSU is held back, he's the best player on what's once again one of the country's more surprisingly successful teams. He can function as the only interior presence in a five-out attack or play next to Kyle Young, who's often planted in the dunker spot waiting for dumpoffs and offensive rebounds.

A true three-level scorer, Liddell opened up OSU's top-five offense with his ability to score at all three levels, especially with fellow big Kyle Young adding the corner three-pointer to his arsenal. While both are undersized, they still did big man stuff—other than protect the rim—at a high level, giving Chris Holtmann the unusual luxury of playing two bigs in a five-out system.

Liddell scored well into the double figures most every game because his versatile offensive game gave him a route to attack pretty much any defender. He could bully smaller players or drag slower-footed centers into the deep water with both his spot-up shooting and his face-up game:

Liddell found a way to either mitigate his weaknesses or turn them into strengths. I'd love to see him next to more of a traditional center who still can stretch the floor, though I realize those aren't exactly easy to find, so OSU could construct a title-caliber defense. (In theory. In practice, OSU being bad at defense is actually good, in my opinion.) Instead, they merely built a championship-level offense around a 6'7, 240-pound big man.

Other contenders: Donta Scott, Jacob Young, Hunter Dickinson

[Hit THE JUMP for worst surprise, most extreme JAS™, the JJJ award, disaster factory, and more.]

It was another eventful week in college basketball toughest conference, though it wasn't all for the good. After two Penn State players tested positive for COVID-19, Wisconsin and PSU postponed their game originally scheduled for yesterday, the first such instance in the Big Ten this year. (UPDATE: It didn't take long for a second. Tuesday's Purdue-Nebraska game was just postponed.) Here are the results from the week (home team listed second):

• Maryland 70, Wisconsin 64
• MSU 56, Minnesota 81
• Northwestern 72, Iowa 87
• Purdue 78, Rutgers 81
• Nebraska 54, OSU 90
• PSU 85, Indiana 87 (OT)
• Minnesota 59, Wisconsin 71
• Michigan 84, Maryland 73
• Iowa 77, Rutgers 75
• Purdue 58, Illinois 66
• MSU 84, Nebraska 77
• Northwestern 66, Michigan 85
• OSU 60, Minnesota 77

Iowa and Michigan both had 2-0 weeks while Northwestern, predictably, dropped games against each of the aforementioned teams to fall out of first place.

The Standings

*KenPom doesn't include a projection for the rescheduled PSU-Wisconsin game

There isn't much change at the very top beyond Northwestern coming back to earth; Michigan's national ranking is inching up to the level of the three one-loss squads. Despite a loss to Wisconsin, Minnesota is the biggest mover up the rankings because it was sandwiched between blowouts of Michigan State and Ohio State.

Incidentally, MSU continues to plunge; winning by seven over Nebraska didn't do much for the computer judges coming off that 25-point loss to the Gophers and their projections keep going down as preseason data is stripped out and they play clunkers. I'm not going to dedicate an entire section to MSU's problems for the third straight week but I'll note Tom Izzo benched Rocket Watts in favor of playing freshman AJ Hoggard and Foster Loyer at point guard against the Huskers; Watts had an up-and-down 15 minutes at shooting guard.

[Hit THE JUMP for NET rankings, players coming on strong, outlier stats, new tiers, and this week's schedule.]