jacob young

Previously: Part One (Illinois-Minnesota)

Today's post will cover the back half of the Big Ten and next week I'll post a part three that (finally) ranks the league by current roster outlook. Let's get this going before anyone else moves.

Nebraska

Key departures: W Teddy Allen (left team during season, transfer), F Yvan Ouedraogo (Grand Canyon transfer), G Elijah Wood (transfer), W Akol Arop (transfer)
Key additions/super seniors: G Kobe Webster (super senior), W Keon Edwards (DePaul transfer), W CJ Wilcher (Xavier transfer), G Keisei Tominaga (JuCo transfer), 5* W Bryce McGowens (2021 signee), 4* F Wilhelm Breidenbach (2021 signee), 3* C Oleg Kojenets (2021 signee)
Up in the air: F Thorir Thorbjarnarson (possible super senior), F Shameil Stevenson (considering pros)

Color me shocked, there's a lot of transfer action in a Fred Hoiberg program. While that reflected a poor Nebrasketball program the last couple years, however, this offseason shows some promise for the Huskers.

Hoiberg did a good job of holding the roster together after leading scorer Teddy Allen left the program midway through the season. The only other rotation player to leave is backup big Yvan Ouedraogo, while the other players who've transferred or are considering their futures either didn't play significant minutes or are fringe Big Ten talents. Starting guard Kobe Webster, a good outside shooter, decided to use the COVID exemption for an extra senior year.

Meanwhile, the players coming in look like they'll move the program forward. Hoiberg isn't shying away from heaping expectations on freshman wing Bryce McGowens, the #22 overall player in the 2021 class—easily the highest-ranked signee in Huskers history—and younger brother of senior guard Trey McGowens:

"I believe that signing Bryce changes the whole trajectory of our program." Nebraska Coach Fred Hoiberg said. "He is the centerpiece of what I believe is the strongest class that Nebraska basketball has ever signed. Since I've been here, we have talked about building a program that can have sustained success, and adding a player of Bryce's caliber shows that we building something special here. It shows that Nebraska can compete for some of the top players in the country. It also says a lot about the type of person that Bryce is. He wanted to go to a place where he can create a legacy and help Nebraska basketball reach new heights.

He's on the skinny side and his outside shot is reportedly streaky but he has the look of a high-level scorer from day one. Top-100 big man Wilhelm Breidenbach is merely the third-highest ranked signee in program history; at 6'9, 200 pounds, his lack of bulk may matter more than McGowens' because of their respective positions.

DePaul transfer Keon Edwards is, in effect, another top-100 commit. The lanky 6'7 wing was ranked in the 40-80 range depending on the evaluator after he gave up his senior season of high school to reclassify to 2020 and enroll in December. Edwards played only a handful of minutes over five games as a freshman. The Huskers say he'll have four years of eligibility and he had some high-level programs after him as a transfer, including Alabama and Florida State.

Xavier transfer CJ Wilcher is in a similar position. The #113 prospect in the 2020 class rode the pine for most of the season before emerging as a useful rotation player and even a spot starter on the wing in its final month. He, too, will have four years of eligibility. While limited as an athlete, he was touted as one of the better shooters in his class.

Speaking of shooters, top-ten JuCo transfer Keisei Tominaga is touted as "the Japanese Steph Curry" after shooting 48% from downtown for Ranger (TX) College, which is coached by Billy Gillespie(!). His range and quick release are evident on film and he should at the very least be a fun player to track.

[Hit THE JUMP for teams with a bit less change except for... Wisconsin?]

Now it's time to talk about football. Here are Nico Collins draft comps from PFF:

Do not look up target counts for Boykin, Malone, and Metcalf.

A new defense. Richard Johnson is in 538 talking with Maurice Linguist about what's going on with the Michigan D:

There are, broadly speaking, two spectrums that defenses can fall: too simple or too complex. With coverages, Michigan was certainly more of the former, especially early in Brown’s tenure, as the team played man-to-man defense almost exclusively. Though his tendencies eventually became more balanced, Michigan remained one of the most man-heavy teams in college football. Even as Brown tweaked his squad’s identity, its play only got worse. So as is often the case when you get beat up on one end of the spectrum, Michigan could flip to the other.

Is it worth building an inflexible defense made to shut out the Michigan States at the expense of being ill-equipped to respond to what Ohio State can throw at you? That’s the existential question facing the Wolverines.

“They had a system down that they felt strong about and playing a lot more man-oriented, and that’s definitely going to be a part of what we do,” Linguist said. “But there’s layers to having a great defense and just the perspective that we’re going to be bringing in. You don’t have to just live in one thing to be successful.”

The kind of things they're importing from the NFL are going to be difficult for college players, period, and it is likely to be particularly rough in year one. I wonder if they'll have the time to actually get something going. Warde Manuel is almost certainly going to be in a difficult spot next offseason.

[After THE JUMP: as the portal turns]

The terrifying world of Torvik without preseason projections. You can drop the preseason projections out of Torvik by advancing the start date of your sample one day.

You should not do this, the stat persons say. Kenpom once asserted that his projections were more accurate if you left a little bit of preseason expectation in indefinitely, but people were very cross about this and the benefit was small so he didn't bother. We're not even to January, so the expectations carry an appropriately large amount of weight, especially because teams have played far fewer games than they usually do.

But let's do it anyway, because my face hasn't melted in at least a couple days. The Big Ten in this universe:

• #5 Wisconsin
• #8 Illinois
• #9 Iowa

Okay we're fine

• #15 Northwestern
• #21 Rutgers

tentacles emerge from the floor

• #25 Michigan
• #26 Indiana
• #27 Penn State

tentacles grow flowers

• #37 Purdue
• #46 Minnesota
• #50 Ohio State
• #51 Maryland

pink elephants emerge from the flowers

• #86 Michigan State
• #91 Nebraska

pink elephants explode, covering room in viscera, viscera sings "Sittin' on the Dock of the Bay."

It's not like the ranking systems are particularly enamored with MSU even when you leave expectations in. They're still second-to last on Torvik, but much closer to Maryland at #51 than Nebraska. Northwestern also gets penalized about the same amount—~30 spots—but they drop from fourth to 11th in the league as a result.

I sort of buy the projections' skepticism about Northwestern because they've experienced a lot of luck defending three-pointers. They give up a fair amount of them (181st) and opponents are hitting 27%. There are teams that can maintain opposition three-point shooing at low levels but they're usually dedicated zones or teams with incredible rim protection. Northwestern is neither.

As Ace detailed yesterday with an assist from Hoop Vision, there are reasons to believe that Northwestern's offensive turnaround is sustainable. They've mitigated much of their playmaking deficiency by using Pete Nance as a point-center in a five-out offense, a role that Nance is well-suited to. There is likely a reality check coming once teams scout the NW offense better, but Nance has proven to be a handful on the perimeter and should continue being one.

MSU… well, Ace just talked about them too but that was before last night's debacle.

[After the JUMP: a brief history of disaster factories]