Previously: Last year’s profiles. P Tommy Doman Jr. S Rod Moore. CB Ja’Den McBurrows. LB Jaydon Hood. LB Junior Colson. LB Tyler McLaurin. DE Kechaun Bennett. DE TJ Guy. DE/DT Dominick Giudice. DT George Rooks. DT Rayshaun Benny. NG Ikechukwu Iwunnah. C Greg Crippen. C/G Raheem Anderson. T Giovanni El-Hadi. T Tristan Bounds. TE Louis Hansen.

There was a time when Cristian Dixon was on his way to five stars, with the offers to match. He was a top target of speed-obsessed Josh Gattis, for one. Half-way through his high school career, Dixon was dominating at Pomona Beach (CA) Diamond Ranch, and moving up to a stacked receiver roster at California powerhouse Mater Dei, where Bama-bound 2020 5-star Bryce Young was under center.

When he did move up, Dixon got lost behind top-150 WR Kyron Ware-Hudson, who joined USC this year, shortish 2020 3* Kody Epps (BYU), and tiny unrated slot bug Josiah Zamora, a USC preferred walk-on this year. Questions about Dixon’s hands and “consistency” became a regular feature in scouting reports as the rankings plummeted. At 247Sports especially, this was no mere easy decline. Dixon went from a top-100 prospect to the part of the rankings reserved for guys who give quotes about proving themselves to the doubters. He did however start to improve his production, and passed Zamora, as his junior year progressed. Those who hadn’t given up hope awaited senior film.

Then his senior season was canceled, Dixon enrolled early, and we’re left where we were, plus a few quotes about proving himself to the doubters. Well that and more standard big bully type scouting reports.

[After THE JUMP: Across the middle takes]

Standard Possession Receiver Things. There isn’t a whole lot of subtlety in Dixon’s positives. He excelled in camp settings with his size and catch radius. Here’s the 247 scouting report by West Coast analyst Blair Angulo with the rote stuff:

Athletic build with length. Highly projectable frame to add size without sacrificing fluidity. Dynamic pass-catcher and down-field threat. Major nuisance on the outside. Physicality to overmatch defensive backs and technical enough to be a weapon over the middle.

I like that “nuisance” bit. Angulo first noticed Dixon at a UCLA camp in June 2018, and said he “might be one of the best receivers in his class out West…good frame with long arms…good downfield speed and quickness going in and out of his breaks.” At the end of that 2018 camp circuit Dixon was on his way to a top-50 ranking of the kind that usually ends in the top-100. ESPN took their half-assed look at the time, and locked in their opinion.

Dixon kept going to camps, and most of the takes from many scouting opportunities came back with a possession flavor:

• Mike Roach: “looks good physically…he was smooth in position drills.” (Six standouts, Dallas 7v7 Pylon, 1/9/2021)
• Greg Biggins/247 West analyst: "good long speed and can develop in to a deep threat. He shows some polish and is a mature route runner who can explode in and out of his breaks. He’ll win some jump ball/50-50 battles because of his natural athleticism and length. He can also make a play after the catch and shows good quickness and elusiveness in the open field…solid frame and showed some toughness going over the middle and hanging on to the ball after taking a shot. He has one of the best 'get-offs' in the state and can create quick separation at the line of scrimmage.” (When he committed)
• Tim Prister (IrishIllustrated): long, agile, gazelle-like ability on 50-50 balls. Tracks deep ball very well. Competitive nature with the belief that he’s going to come down with every pass. Shows good football instincts, adjusting to the situation to find success, which includes some downfield blocking. He carries himself like a big-time player that expects to succeed. (#7 in a list of desired Irish WR prospects, March 2020)
• Adam Gorney/Rivals West analyst: “not many better-looking receivers in the 2021 class than Dixon, who is big and strong, physical and surprisingly fast for his size…in camp settings … was really impressive, created separation, muscled up faster defensive backs and made a lot of plays.” (five West prospects who are tough to rate, Aug 2020)
• EJ Holland (when still writing for the Irish site): “checks the boxes from a pure athletic standpoint, and he knows how to stretch the field on the outside. Dixon got behind defenses for a couple of touchdowns and helped open things up for his teammates over the middle.” (Orlando Scandrick 7v7, May 2019)
• Jonathan Simmons/MnB: “Very adept at beating his man off the line of scrimmage and snapping off his routes at the top to create separation….chops his feet hard to turn on a dime, catches the ball away from his body and is elusive enough to avoid the cornerback and pick up more yards after the catch….Dixon looks to have sure hands, almost always going up to catch the ball away from his body.” (reviewing St. John’s game, late Sept, 2019)
• Touch the Banner: I like Dixon’s frame. He has long arms and good size overall that should see him continue to bulk up to around 210 pounds or so eventually. He shows the ability to vary his releases to prevent defenders from getting into his body in press man coverage, and he has the strength to shake off smaller corners. I like his acceleration, and he gets to top speed rather quickly. He also does a good job of shielding defenders away from the ball and protecting the ball when going into traffic. (Commitment eval, July 2020) (gave him a 75 rating)
• Jim Harbaugh: "another tall, rangy, big catch radius. … The level of competition that he played at in high school is, arguably, the best in the entire country. Super excited about Cristian…is another really tremendous wide receiver from California” (Jansen pod on Signing Day)

Before Texas’s blatant tampering removed one of Michigan’s receivers in the class, Steve Lorenz thought Dixon would be the bridge between “red zone threat” Andrel Anthony and “downfield burner” Xavier Worthy. Marich saw Dixon and Worthy at the same camp and became a Dixon stan:

Dixon is more of your physical and bigger wide receiver. He’s physically built and bullied little defensive backs throughout the camp…will be a mismatch problem in the red zone with his size, strength and ability to go up and simply get it. The last thing that stuck out to me about both guys was they play with swagger and an edge.

For those who remember Coach Hayes from the Benny writeup, he’s back for this one. Again, Hayes just watches highlights, but his scouting is valuable considering the differences of opinion on route-running above.

His notes:

• Hayes really liked that Dixon was willing to take a shot and hold onto the ball: “Bruh, fear is not in your vocabulary.”
• Liked Dixon’s routes, but they weren’t perfect: vertical route took away space for his QB to throw.
• Was not impressed with Dixon’s speed and YAC.
• “Good possession receiver.”

He occasionally gets called “smooth.” The only differences of opinion from the above were between Prister’s “gazelle” metaphor and Angulo’s “short strider” description. I see the latter more on tape, fwiw. Big loping strides to cover ground are not Dixon’s game; getting where his quarterback needs him to be is.

There’s also this SI All-American evaluation. First a note on SI: I have been ignoring these for the most part because SI isn’t SI anymore; they’re Maven, whose business model is you pay them to write under the Sports Illustrated header so people who don’t know they sold the name will think you’re a pro. This time however they’re quoting John Garcia Jr., a guy known to Western recruiting world who was given a “Director of Recruiting” job to earn Maven back some credibility:

This top 10 list is littered with big, physical specimens who make jump balls and back-shoulder fades look routine, but Dixon is quite the opposite. He's elite because of his ability to execute as the latest example of why a strong floor is still incredibly important in the evaluation business. Playing with Bryce Young the last two years at Mater Dei in California, this rising senior produced against great competition and at every stop. Dixon is an advanced route runner with enough size and strong hands to make plays underneath as well as in traffic. A solid release package and above average speed/stride make for a reliable target who can move the chains at any level.

The Fall. I tend to roll my eyes when a high school talks about his doubters and haters, but in this case I get it. Dixon’s deep drop on 247Sports right before he committed to Michigan meant everybody had to explain why. We’ll start with an overview from Greg Biggens of 247, who explained it was all about a crappy (injured) junior year:

Dixon had a strong sophomore year at Diamond Ranch but struggled last season at Mater Dei with the step up in competition. He was injured early in the year and then never really got in to the flow of the offense and you could see his confidence take a dip. Getting his confidence back will be big and then improving as a pass catcher and competitor. He struggled at times catching the ball and needs to gain strength and become a more physical receiver. He has a good frame but needs to develop more in his upper body to help create separation and to get off press coverage against some of the better corners he'll see in college. He also has a little stiffness in his game and needs to develop some fluidity as well.

Overall Analysis: Dixon's stock took a hit over the last year but he has still the natural ability to be develop in to a playmaker. It's really up to him how good he wants to be and how much work he's willing to put in. This season at Mater Dei will be a big one for him as he'll be playing on the big stage every weekend. From talking to him over the off-season, I can tell Dixon is hungry and humbled. He knows he has a lot to prove and spent a lot of time this spring working on his speed, routes and the family bought a jugs machine to work on his hands. If he can make a jump physically and show the promise he showed as a sophomore, it will bode very well for the Wolverines moving forward.

We can break up these complaints into two main categories:

HANDS/BREAKS NOT CONSISTENT:

• Biggens: He struggled a bit with his hands but has also shown the ability to make a spectacular catch with one hand or jumping over a defender.
• Angulo: “Needs to get out of breaks quicker to become more consistent.”
• Biggens: Consistency and focus moving forward are big keys for Dixon fulfilling his potential.
• Gorney: The question with Dixon is can he be that dominant and that successful in game settings.
• MGoFish: “Pretty inconsistent reports from one camp to the next… He was sometimes taking plays off it was said. People wanted him to play with more passion.

The 247 staff raised concerns at the LA Opening regional as early as February 2019:

Rounding out the strong group of 2021 receiver was Pomona (Calif.) Diamond Ranch four-star Cristian Dixon, who showed decent athleticism moving through drills but has room for improvement in some of the more technical aspects of the position…He could have been cleaner and sharper going in and out of his breaks and more reliable hands.

SPEED:

• 247 Staff, continued: He has a short, choppy stride and seemed to run with too much forward lean.
• Touch the Banner:  1) a lack of great separation and 2) a lack of short-area quickness. Both of those may be related. While Dixon’s large frame comes in handy at times, it also hurts him. He can be slow to get in and out of his breaks, and his running after the catch is just so-so. Making people miss doesn’t seem to be a strong suit, and he sometimes stops his feet after contact.
• Angulo: Short strider who is still refining technique, but has major potential. Decent top-end speed.
• Simmons: I think the biggest knock against Dixon is his long speed, which is good but not great. He clocked a 4.63 40-yard dash at an Opening Regional in Feb. 2019. That will be enough to get by on the outside but certainly doesn’t make him a burner.
• Fish: Want to see him get out of his breaks quicker; looking at his shuttle time (4.57 at the Opening in early 2019) maybe that’s just a limitation for him.

Simmons was the one to note progression over the course of that 2019 fall:

You could tell Dixon was still learning the system at that [early] point in the season. However, he broke out in the Centennial game, catching three passes for 140 yards and two touchdowns. By the time they played St. John’s, he had supplanted Zamora and was in the starting lineup…Given all the traits I saw while watching Dixon’s tape, I don’t really get the dramatic drop in the rankings that 247Sports gave him in their June offensive update. His rating fell three spots, from a 90 four-star to an 87 three-star. I think his previous spot, at the low end of four-star range, was appropriate.

It’s been a year: Remember these are all based on the junior film. Since fall 2019 all we have to go on are the 7v7 appearances in early 2020, and various practice reports from his personal workouts in fall 2020 and spring practice at Michigan. Those:

Fall training: Brice Marich:

Dixon has put in the work this off-season with former NFL wide receiver TJ Houshmandzadeh and looks like a more polished receiver along with a determined player ready to prove the doubters wrong.

Harbaugh said Dixon “did some really good things” in spring but of all the scholarship receivers on campus Cristian got the least amount of mention over the offseason. However one of the readers who came by the HTTV events this weekend noticed #10 had been in every one of Michigan’s highlight reels, including a badly-contested catch against Jalen Perry here (at 0:24).

Etc. Dixon is kind of an odd bird. Holland:

A bright red, blue and yellow self-portrait is hard to go unnoticed. The freehand work has a bit of an Andy Warhol vibe to it…Dixon’s musical palate ranges from NBA YoungBoy to Beethoven. He likes doing tail whips on his scooter because BMX bikes are ‘too scary.’ And he’s also dipping his toes in the fashion world.

“Social media is the worst thing that’s ever happened to us as humans,” Dixon said. “We waste so much time on it. It’s ridiculous. There is so much money in it, but it’s so bad for us. All the radiation in the phones. Apple knows what they’re doing to us. There is a reason why Bill Gates doesn’t have a whole bunch of technology in his house.”

Also in that article they note Dixon was on the OL until 8th grade, and feels like he could be the #1 DB in the class except he doesn’t like tackling. Dixon also seems very focused on maximizing his own branding potential.

Why Greg Mathews but Zen? Of all the possession receivers to choose from, Mathews feels like the closest comp, including all the Hoke jump-ballers who didn’t work out. Upside could get into Adrian Arrington range, but Arrington was fluid, never choppy, and taller. Mathews was a long pair of arms attached to an average receiver’s body, and had a knack for making himself available for a pass then taking a shot. I appended “But Zen” because everyone agrees Dixon is a different kind of dude.

Variance: High. Both sites who bothered to reevaluate since 2019 went down, but Rivals went down to a normal four-star possession receiver (very close to Darboh, actually), and 247 went down to Jeremy Jackson range. Unfortunately, 247 seems to have been the site that was scouting Dixon the most. Even more alarming, 247 is usually the site paying more attention to upside while Rivals leans on their camp performances. For what it’s worth, the last time the two sites ever really disagreed heavily like this on a Mater Dei guy was Wisconsin TE Kyle Penniston—247 was more correct there, but it’s one trial; it doesn’t seem like one site has more inside info from Mater Dei observers than the other.

Ceiling: Moderate-minus. Dixon is probably more of a high-floor guy though he still needs to fill out quite a bit. He isn’t super quick right now, and has been tall enough for long enough (and is one of the older players in the class) that I don’t foresee him getting faster.

General Excitement Level: Moderate-minus. Dixon looks every bit of his listed 6’2”, has long arms, and excels at catching the ball. The substantial drop in production when facing a higher level of opponent is worrisome. Michigan needs guys who aren’t slot ninjas, but Dixon seems like he will cap out as #3 target/possession receiver, e.g. Mathews. It’s one of the rare times I think Magnus is actually higher on a 2021 recruit than I am. If that puts me in the category of doubters and haters I’m happy to be wrong.

Projection: I'm less sure of what I'm looking at here because there's no senior film (this will probably be the last time I'm more certain of a Massachusetts TE than a Mater Dei WR) and after Dixon's junior season we really wanted to see that senior film. Michigan's general contempt for fan interest in spring, culminating in a denial of any televised spring game, meant we got nothing out of the early enrollment.

That leaves me with the standard possession track. Redshirt or perhaps four games because there isn’t much depth outside, but those mostly spent blocking or running under a McCarthy heave late in a blowout. He definitely chose the right depth chart to be a possession receiver on, so there’s probably a role for him in 2023-‘24 as a nice pair of hands, and an extra weapon to bring off the bench against teams that play small corners. The guy in the next class like this—Tay’shawn Trent—might not qualify and they don’t seem to have anyone else like that on the line, so there should be a healthy couple of years to either side where Dixon is the guy for that role. My understanding of that role’s earning potential might be a source of frustration for his branding designs, even if the school he chose is the right one to maximize it.