Previously: (Rather Early) Season Preview Podcast (post-Franz-injury update in last week's Ace Pod), Big Ten Tiers Part One, Big Ten Tiers Part Two, Position Preview: Definitely Guards, Position Preview: Wings, Position Preview: Bigs

Michigan hasn't faced a season with this much change in over a decade. We all have questions. These are the most pressing at the moment.

What Is Juwan Howard's Offense Going To Look Like?

big-to-big passing​ is going to increase by a factor of, uh, infinity? [Campredon]

The Miami Heat's with a longer shot clock. The coaching staff has said as much and the scrimmages they've played so far has confirmed it.

Some things won't change much. Zavier Simpson is still going to be the player with the ball in his hands creating the most shots for others. There's going to be a lot of pick-and-roll and variations thereof. Much of the offense is going to stem from the two-man game between Simpson and Teske. The team is still going to shoot a lot of threes.

But there will be possessions that look unlike anything John Beilein ran. Here are some of the biggest expected changes:

Greater emphasis on the big men. The bigs preview featured a couple clips of stuff that'll be pretty standard: an off-ball screen to get Jon Teske an easy post-up bucket and a horns set featuring Teske in the high post threading a bounce pass to Brandon Johns for a layup. Beilein was one of the most post-averse coaches in the country; that will not be the case with Howard. He opened both halves of the SVSU game with post-ups; I'd be shocked if that happened even one time under Beilein.

That'll also be a change from the Heat, but the circumstances are different: Howard's big men at Michigan are more likely to have mismatches down low—not a lot of college teams have a skilled seven-footer—and the longer shot clock allows them more time to go to work on the block.

Pushing the tempo. Beilein coached some of the most deliberate offenses in the country; his teams finished in the 300s in adjusted tempo in eight of his last ten years, per KenPom. Last season, they played only six games with 70 or more possessions and surpassed 72 once (75 vs. Brad Underwood's Runnin' Illini).

Michigan had 72 possessions in Friday's exhibition and were on pace for 74 at the half before taking their foot off the gas late. They pushed the ball up the court off defensive rebounds and hunted early shots. While the team needs to hone their shot selection—open early threes are good, contested early long twos less so—the change in approach really worked for Isaiah Livers, who got a lot of his offense early in the clock. This is not a shot Beilein would've liked:

I like it, and I'd love it if Livers shot it a little more on balance. An open look from three for your best shooter is a good shot regardless of when it comes in the possession. You're often more likely to get those looks when the defense is scrambling back to find their matchups. Michigan has a skilled passing big man, an excellent rebounding point guard, and a bunch of plus athletes. They also might not have the most efficient halfcourt offense this season.

You'll see a few more turnovers (inevitable no matter what given Beilein's incredible track record) and some questionable jumpers; you'll also see more dunks and transition threes. That could be a particularly worthwhile tradeoff given this team's personnel.

Less complicated in general. Beilein's offense was designed in part to maximize the long college shot clock, which made it difficult to defend and just as difficult to learn; each set had seemingly endless variations. While the results spoke for themselves, there were some self-imposed limitations—point guards in particular could take a long time to get comfortable and even the team's stars usually needed a year of limited usage before becoming a lead player in the offense.

Howard comes from the NBA, where the 24-second clock leads to a more freewheeling style; if your first option for a play is taken away, you don't have much time to squeeze in a second or third option before it's time to get the ball to a late-clock scorer and get out of the way. Howard also wants to appeal to five-star talent, and that means giving your top scorers a certain level of leeway that Beilein was hesitant to allow; they also usually like to see a certain level of tempo.

The best 15 or so minutes you can spend getting ready for the season is going through this thread of videos from Eric Shapiro detailing the sets Howard is expected to run based on his time in Miami. A common trait is that they're quick-hitting, relatively simple plays that have just enough variations to keep defenses off balance:

First up: Pistol - This set is commonly used in early offense. It's simple to get into, starting with a pass to the wing, but is difficult to defend w/ many read & react options after the initial pass. The most frequent option allows the guard (X) to make plays after a hand-back: pic.twitter.com/inoZ8gqvtq

— Eric Shapiro (@eric_shap) October 28, 2019

It's going to look a lot different; the good news is the players should be able to pick up on the nuances of the offense faster than they would've if they had to learn Beilein's offense anew.

[Hit THE JUMP for defensive transition costs, Wagner injury impact, who's gonna score, and a stab at the rotation.]

What, If Anything, Are The Defensive Transition Costs?

there'll be an adjustment period for Jon Teske [Campredon]

Michigan no longer has assistant coach Luke Yaklich, the man largely responsible for the Wolverines building on their defensive breakout under Billy Donlon to become a top-three defense in the country the last two years. The personnel certainly helped—Teske, Simpson, and Charles Matthews were elite defenders, and Livers was up there too—but there'll be changes to how the team does things this year, and that usually means at least a temporary dropoff.

The biggest change is in how they'll usually defend the pick-and-roll. Every team switches up their coverages based on matchup and game situation. They also have their go-to P&R scheme; for Beilein, that was the hard hedge, but for Howard it'll be some variation of drop coverage. The main idea in drop coverage is for the big man to keep everything in front of him while the on-ball defender keeps pressure on the ballhandler:

One of the most common pick-and-roll coverages is known as a “drop,” and the core of its technique can be surmised from its name. As the ball-screen occurs, the defender guarding the screener moves to a pre-determined depth before beginning a vertical backpedal to the rim — remaining directly between the ball and the basket, while also keeping the roller in front. The on-ball defender, meanwhile, guides the ball-handler toward his dropping teammate by forcing him to use the ball-screen.

That's a huge philosophical shift from having your big man jump out beyond the three-point arc to hedge and recover. It should benefit Teske eventually; he won't pick up cheap fouls on the perimeter and he'll be in better position to contest shots at the rim. As the exhibition game showed, however, he's still figuring out how to time his drop—and communicate with his team about which player needs to be covered:

Simpson and Teske get confused about who's supposed to guard whom when Livers (I believe correctly) leaves to cover the corner three, Teske hesitates getting back to the rim, and that's enough to allow a layup.

There were more of these errors—both uncertainty with assignments and poor defensive communication—than we're used to seeing on that end. That was likely to be the case already with Michigan changing out three starters; the shift in scheme will exacerbate that issue for a while. The experienced players will settle in and remain very impactful defenders; whether the new rotation players can do the same is an open question. This should still be an excellent defensive team but the dropoff on the wing—Matthews was an amazing defender—and the transition to a different style will probably keep this team from cracking the top five over the full course of the season for a third straight year.

How Does Franz Wagner's Injury Impact [Waves Nervously At Everything]?

wanted: photos of Wagner in a game uniform. [Campredon]

Michigan planned to be able to plug in Wagner at any of three positions and get instant offense, quite possibly in a super-sub role at first before moving him into the starting lineup, but his broken wrist complicates those plans. No matter when Wagner returns in what's now around a 2-4 week window, he's going to miss some prime chances to settle in against low-level competition before facing a brutally tough non-conference slate—and we're really hoping he makes it back for most of that.

The good news is the tournament committee will take a significant injury into account when looking at the team's resume before Selection Sunday. They'll only do that to such a degree, however, and many of the opportunities for signature victories before Big Ten play are smack in the middle of Wagner's recovery timeline—namely, the Thanksgiving week Battle 4 Atlantis tournament that'll at least feature matchups against Iowa State and one of Alabama or UNC, plus a third game against what should be a quality opponent. The ACC challenge date at Louisville looms on December 3rd, as well. Even if Wagner is back for Atlantis, he may still be acclimating to his teammates, and the team could find themselves squarely on the bubble if they struggle early with him on the court.

While the team needs Wagner's scoring, his absence does provide an opportunity for a few others to show why they need to be in the rotation. Eli Brooks could solidify a starting role with strong defense and timely shooting. Adrien Nunez is going to get a shot to start at the three, it appears, though early returns haven't been great. Brandon Johns has no choice but to see time at the four now; that looks more promising. Howard should have a pretty good idea of how he wants to eventually trim down the rotation even before Wagner returns.

One thing I'm not worried about is Wagner's ability to get used to the college game faster than most freshmen. In addition to playing high-level international competition against players his age, he's faced adult professionals for the last couple years as a teenager and more than held his own, becoming the sixth man and even occasional starter for Alba Berlin last season. For context, Moe Wagner never played significant minutes for the top club. Franz is advanced for a player his age and we should see that when his wrist heals.

Who Scores The Basketball?

the green light goes on early. [Campredon]

I had been of the mind that Wagner would lead the team in scoring—in a relatively egalitarian environment—because of his offensive aggression, shooting prowess, and ability to attack closeouts. After seeing Isaiah Livers look exceptionally comfortable getting his shot up in the exhibition, in which he went 4-for-8 from three, I'm guessing he leads the way both before and after Wagner returns from injury.

Michigan still has a lot of scoring to replace. Some of that will come from an uptick in usage from the big men; Teske will see his touches increase and I'd be quite surprised if he didn't break into the double figures in scoring average after barely missing it last season. Zavier Simpson may see a slight uptick as he continues to find new and unusual ways to score around the rim; I'm not expecting three-point improvement with the new, longer line.

Someone else needs to step up as an outside shooting threat. Brooks has a shooting form that looks decent but he's yet to break 30% from beyond the arc at Michigan; he was properly aggressive with his shot on Friday, and got the line for ten(!) free throws, but he went 1-for-7 from the field. Nunez has yet to translate his practice and warmup prowess into in-game makes, and his defense needs to look a lot better than it did on Friday unless he's making it rain. Cole Bajema may be too skinny and inexperienced to play more than spot minutes.

Brandon Johns, however, comfortably sunk two of three three-pointers against SVSU, and him being a viable outside shooter may be the best-case scenario regardless. Teske and Castleton should also be able to clear out some space as midrange threats.

It's going to be a relatively even spread in the scoring department again. I'd expect Livers and Wagner to be the top two by average in that order, probably followed by Teske, and then there's a big opening for someone to step up—Simpson would rather be a distributor than a scorer, but he can take on more of the latter if need be.

There are going to be rickety stretches in which Michigan relies heavily on their defense. The last two years were an unexpected preview of a program shifting its strength.

Who Cracks the Starting Lineup? Rotation?

can DDJ muscle his way into a big role? [Campredon]​

It always felt kinda silly to do one overarching minutes projection when college teams morph so much over the course of a season, and now with Wagner's injury I'm taking action on it. I'm separating this into three rotations: the early portion of the season before Wagner returns, the middle bit as Wagner settles in, and a final rotation as Howard presumably unleashes his best players for the postseason.

PRE-WAGNER

PG: Simpson 35, DDJ 5
SG: Brooks 25, DDJ 15
SF: Nunez 20, Livers 20
PF: Livers 15, Johns 15, Castleton 10
C: Teske 30, Castleton 10

WAGNER SETTLES IN

PG: Simpson 35, DDJ 5
SG: Brooks 20, Wagner 10, DDJ 10
SF: Livers 25, Wagner 10, Nunez 5
PF: Johns 25, Castleton 10, Livers 5
C: Teske 30, Castleton 10

FINAL ROTATION

PG: Simpson 35, DDJ 5
SG: Wagner 25, Brooks 10, DDJ 5
SF: Livers 30, Wagner 10
PF: Johns 25, Castleton 10, Livers 5
C: Teske 30, Castleton 10