MGoPodcast 15.10: It's The Purge, Baby!
2 hour and 11 minutes
The Sponsors
Thank you to Underground Printing for making this all possible. Rishi and Ryan have been our biggest supporters from the beginning. Check out their wide selection of officially licensed Michigan fan gear at their 3 store locations in Ann Arbor or learn about their custom apparel business at undergroundshirts.com.
Our associate sponsors are: Peak Wealth Management, Matt Demorest - Realtor and Lender, Ann Arbor Elder Law, Michigan Law Grad, The Phil Klein Insurance Group, Winewood Organics, Human Element, Venue by 4M where we recorded this, The Nose Bleeds, which is the Sklars Bros’ reboot of Cheap Seats on UFC Fight Pass, and INTRODUCING TO THE PODCAST: Sharon's Heating & Air Conditioning.
1. Offense vs Purdue
Starts at 1:00
EDITOR NOTE: I am also spending a lot of time compressing Brian's voice. The worst night game to have is the crappy night game, especially when USC Washington and Alabama LSU are on! It says something that JJ hit 60% of his passes and threw for over 300 yards and everyone's like "what's wrong with JJ?" When do you want to save a play and when do you want to put it on tape? Donovan Edwards has not been utilized properly, are they saving a package for him against Penn State? Starting tackles gave up some sacks but otherwise played pretty well (Purdue has a pair of NFL defensive ends). Is the way to beat JJ by playing a lot of zone defense?
[The rest of the writeup and the player after THE JUMP]
2. Defense vs Purdue
Starts at 43:20
Michigan wasn't getting sacks against Hudson Card but they were pressuring him on every play. It'll be curious to see who actually rotates against Penn State. Starting to feel like we're getting the 2021 version of Rod Moore, which is encouraging. Junior Colson took a step in the right direction, Josh Wallace also played well. All of the ends are a higher level than we predicted at the beginning of the year.
3. Hot Takes, Game Theory, and Special Teams
Starts at 1:02:36
Takes hotter than Santa Ono's letter to Tony Petitti. Why is Purdue football every five years just two NFL defensive ends and nothing else? The 4th and one felt like a good decision, the formation wasn't. Michigan hasn't kicked a field goal in forever so it was good to see it still works. Starters played well into the 4th quarter.
4. Around the Big Ten with Jamie Mac
Starts at 1:25:22
Penn State - 51
Maryland - 15
Maryland turns the ball over four times and rushes for -49 yards. Yup, we're at November Maryland, they are no longer a trap game. When Drew Allar can set his feet and have time to throw he looks like the five star he's supposed to be, but when you pressure him he's shaky. They probably won't be able to run against Michigan but they still have one of the best defenses in college football.
Ohio State - 35
Rutgers - 16
Rutgers is leading 9-7 at halftime but throws a pick-six while driving in the 3rd quarter. Rutgers outgains Ohio State 361-328. We experienced for a moment what it was like being a Rutgers fan and it wasn't fun.
Iowa - 10
Northwestern - 7
Neither team gets more than 200 yards and Iowa is alone in first place in the West. He can't keep getting away with it.
Indiana - 20
Wisconsin - 14
How did Indiana win this? Uhh, one good pass play? Wisconsin outgain Indiana 344-261. Indiana took the lead and just waited for the time to run out before Wisconsin came back.
Michigan State - 20
Nebraska - 17
Nebraska gets back to their old self, turning the ball over three times.
Illinois - 27
Minnesota - 26
Illinois wins on an improbable last minute drive with their backup QB. A disappointing game for anyone who didn't want to see Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game.
MUSIC:
- “Make Me Thomas”— supercooper! ft. Jawn Legend
- “The Stones I Throw”— Levon and the Hawks
- “Are You Gonna Run”— Low Cut Connie
- “Across 110th Street”
THE USUAL LINKS:
- Helpful iTunes subscribe link
- General podcast feed link
- Direct Download Link
- What's with the theme music?
"I'm sorry I'm at an airport and there are multiple babies crying around me. Oh, we thought we'd logged onto the Big Ten coaches call."
November 6th, 2023 at 7:08 AM ^
BIG coaches blaming CS for their putrid record and Purdue upset with Michigan that they were 2-6, now 2-7.
Litigation.
November 6th, 2023 at 8:38 AM ^
“Li-ti-gation” (clap-clap, clap-clap-clap)
November 6th, 2023 at 12:30 PM ^
Punt-Counterpunt is more insightful than it presents itself. This was addressed there.
The problem Michigan has now, is that the program has a scarlet letter. First off, football fans are on average so dumb that the firing of Stalions is immaterial; every win in the past, present, and future is Michigan "cheating". And even if against great odds you convince the idiot in front of you that Stalions is literally gone, that just means Michigan has moved on to another method and simply hasn't been caught yet. The narrative is set; facts are just your tainted opinion.
This is what I hate about sports fans, and people in general. They're so awful on the inside that they need for certain things to be true, even if they're complete fabrications, to justify their own awfulness. The loudest complainers about this "scandal" are all whiny, petty, sniveling Gollums. This was never about whatever trivial violations Stalions committed; everyone in the B1G was looking at Michigan's success and was screaming for any excuse to tear them down (but sure, it's OSU that's against the world).
November 6th, 2023 at 1:14 PM ^
I don't share your misanthropy. But I do think that one miserable contradiction of 'the Age of Information' is that most of us don't really know how to sort through tangled moral questions; data itself, and more data, or repeated dunning with the same data, seems to be enough to sway credulous consumers, which is what we've all been reduced to. And--let's not forget--'everyone else cheats' and 'there are so many bigger transgressions out there' are always going to be difficult sells by way of defense. Yes, they hate Harbaugh, and (for me) some of the likely subtext here is that he's a perceived antagonist; sharing revenue with the players is not something ADs or college presidents want to do, let alone sit down and sort out in their spare time. They're inviting in teams from three time zones off and killing college football to maximize profit, not divide the pie.
Michigan's always been big for its britches. We're about to reach a thousand wins, and they're willing to kill that PR coup, to set back the B1G's image to take down the big dog. If virtue, justice, or some more egalitarian landscape were what these clowns were after we wouldn't be here. Jim's a little bit blind to this fact, himself.
November 6th, 2023 at 7:31 AM ^
It is starting to feel like the offensive line and running backs in their current form are just guys. They're still pretty good, but they don't feel anywhere near last year. I can't remember the last time I saw a running back. Make a play or get a run longer than 15 yd. And I'm not sure where to look it up, but it does feel like our yards before contact or line yards have to be significantly lower than last year. With how JJ is performing, that still may be good enough, but it is a bit of a letdown. They clearly miss olu and Hayes.
November 6th, 2023 at 9:46 AM ^
Corum had a nice run against Minnesota, I believe, where he bounced around some guys. But I agree the big plays haven't been there.
They definitely are missing Olu and Hayes, but you also see defenses doing somewhat extreme things to stop UM's running game and bet McCarthy to beat them in these blowouts. That's the one thing I have a hard time taking away yet - Michigan hasn't had to try to mess with teams much on the ground and there are talented guys here that even if they were 80% Olu and Hayes you'd expect bigger runs at times. So some of it may just be the play calling coupled with a step down in performance.
I also suspect some of it may just be weird luck; Edwards in particular has been shoestring tackled a dozen times in plays where if he breaks that one last guy he's off to the races. It's a bit like last year where the offense kept bogging down in the red zone for weeks and then they broke out in the last 3-4 games with something like a 70% TD rate. So maybe the luck turns a bit and they get some big runs against teams like PSU, Maryland, and OSU now.
November 6th, 2023 at 11:00 AM ^
Mullings also appears like a guy that is getting ready to break out. He runs hard and also seems light on his feet. Seems to be getting a nice feel for the college game. I'll stop before I get into Fred Jackson territory, but I would like to see him get a few more carries.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:52 PM ^
Yeah, Mullings seems like a guy who might truck an LB and got for 30 out of nowhere at this point. We haven't seen a super focused UM playing 4 hard quarters and at that point being bodied by Corum and Mullings and then trying to recalibrate with Edwards in space is tough.
November 6th, 2023 at 1:09 PM ^
When a player fails to break shoestring tackles that often, it's a lack of skill or performance, not luck.
November 6th, 2023 at 1:56 PM ^
I was curios to see how last year compared to this year for Corum & Edwards.
Here's the breakdown for the first 9 games last year vs. this year:
Corum:
2023: 126 carries, 649 yards, 16 TD's, 5.2 YPA
2022: 199 carries, 1187 yards, 16 TD's, 6.0 YPA
Edwards:
2023: 74 carries, 232 yards, 2 TD's, 3.1 YPA
2022: 68 carries, 458 yards, 4 TD's, 6.7 YPA
Combined:
2023: 200 carries, 881 yards, 18 TD's, 4.4 YPA
2022: 267 carries, 1646 yards, 20 TD's, 6.2 YPA
Notes:
There's not much to say. Carries are down 25% but yards are down 46%. TD's is a bit of a wash. Important to note McCarthy's passing TD's through 9 games is 18 (2023), up from 12 (2022). McCarthy's rushing TD's is 3 (2023) vs. 2 (2022).
Other than the obvious, much fewer explosive plays on the ground...the biggest difference is with Corum's work load. Last year he had a 7 game stretch where he averaged 27.5 carries per game topping 30 twice, with a 29 carry and 28 carry game also. This year Corum is averaging 14 carries per game with his max game being 21 carries. His next highest game is 16 carries.
Edwards is in an especially weird place. His YPA is down 54% on more carries. I'm no analyst, but watching the plays they have run for Edwards, many seem to be blown up before he even gets a chance. I don't know if the coaches are running significantly different packages for Edwards vs. Corum.
I still think Michigan can run when they want/need to (see Corum's TD numbers), but Sherrone Moore seems to be more "take what they give you" which is awesome to see on a team with so many weapons.
November 6th, 2023 at 3:34 PM ^
Yes never seen something like Edwards regression in college. Its like when the NFL running backs hit their age 28 year and go downhill overnight. But he is 21 or whatever it is. Crazy. He was never a major in between the tackles runner but his explosion was his game and that seems to be gone. Also the balance isn't great - he is going down like our man Derrick Green used to. It's unfathomable to me - it isn't all the OL --- not over 9 games.
Edwards has lost half a step but understandable with the injury there and it's not 50% regression.
I don't know if it's the weight room - maybe they bulked up too much, who knows (I love Herbert in general just making guesses)
November 6th, 2023 at 11:04 AM ^
Unless injuries are involved (realistic with Corum and Edwards), this doesn't make a ton of sense to me.
There are three returning O-line starters and two of them were considered good NFL prospects last year (Zinter for sure, possibly Keegan). Have they regressed?
Hayes (a practice-squad NFL player at this point) and Olu (5th-rounder, made roster and has played) were good, yes, but are Henderson and Nugent (multi-year starters in a Power Five conference) that much of a drop-off?
I can't see issues anywhere else. Bredeson seems improved and Barner has blocked well. Trente Jones seems to be filling the Honigford role well.
November 7th, 2023 at 10:12 AM ^
Look at Olu’s UFR scores compared to Nugent. Also, teams are stacking the box even more this year.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:20 PM ^
It is starting to feel like the offensive line and running backs in their current form are just guys
Let's not overlook that Corum has 16 TDs on 126 carries.
I would agree that he hasn't looked Heisman-good this season overall, but he's still incredibly consistent.
November 6th, 2023 at 7:44 AM ^
My copy of the podcast skips from the intro to the hot takes. Is anyone else seeing this, or did my download just glitch?
November 6th, 2023 at 9:14 AM ^
It is just reflecting the times.
November 6th, 2023 at 11:02 AM ^
Mine was fine.
November 6th, 2023 at 7:47 AM ^
“He can’t keep getting away with it.”
Umm, Have you watched Iowa for the past few years?
November 6th, 2023 at 10:38 AM ^
Breaking Bad reference there. Heisenberg ultimately does fall.. but no one else took him down.
November 6th, 2023 at 8:00 AM ^
It really appeared, at least early, that JJ was throwing all fast balls. As they game went on he seemed to get back to the precision we are used to. I wonder if he was so pissed off at all the shit talking from the outside that he was overly juiced up.
November 6th, 2023 at 1:03 PM ^
How could he not be? Take how you feel and multiply it and you'll have a glimpse of the distress.
November 6th, 2023 at 2:37 PM ^
Maybe he had a cold, idk he was just off on a few throws, i wouldn't read too much into it.
November 6th, 2023 at 8:46 AM ^
The good news is that JJ had an off night and still posted excellent numbers.
Michigan used this game to set up the Penn State game- the running game vs PSU will be much more effective.
November 6th, 2023 at 9:42 AM ^
i have a feeling we spent much of our 'off' time on the bye-week working on PSU and ohio stuff. we played very vanilla vs. purdue, played with our food a little in the middle of the game, but we were never in any danger of that even being a close game.
November 6th, 2023 at 2:58 PM ^
That's what I saw, also. Was at the game, and the whole thing felt a little flat. It started out on fire, I called out Wilson's first 16yd dig (nobody over him before the snap), and my friend pointed out Edwards split wide with nobody on him. He yelled if it was a safety or LB running over late, 'I replied LB - this one is coming into our laps!' And it did - looked like it was thrown to me! So fun to watch...
After getting the lead, it was like they were just running the plays. The feel was that the pass was going to be there for the 3rd & longs, and there was no worry whatsoever.
I have a feeling that PSU is going to get unloaded on...
November 6th, 2023 at 8:52 AM ^
I don't want to hear about our running game until I see JJ keep a zone read which clearly was off the table vs Purdue. Do I think that is smart? Maybe but man it makes it brutal to watch when you know how explosive this offense can be and the peril it can place a defense in and we don't even test it. However I will say in 2021 and 2022 this game would have been a rock fight where we would have ran into the line 46 times ground out 189 yards and won 20-9 or 23-16. This 2023 version of Michigan is exciting at least cause they gonna let JJ air it out and put ball in his hands to decide game something we haven't seen a lot of. I think these last three weeks you better dial it all up. If Edwards doesn't have a package we haven't seen I will be shocked. The mismatches we can put you in with Loveland, Barner and Edwards all on the field is something to watch for. If you go light to cover that package Corum going to go ham on your defense. The biggest thing I see is we are not dead on offense on 3 and 10+ any longer. We used to be dead every time we faced that situation.
November 6th, 2023 at 9:23 AM ^
I don’t know that the reads were completely off. I thought I saw one time in the red zone where JJ handed off to DE, who gained 5-6 yds, but it looked like JJ wanted to keep the ball as he could have walked into the end zone. Maybe that was just me and it was more of a poor handoff from JJ. 🤷♂️
November 6th, 2023 at 11:31 AM ^
Or that's a perfect example of the reads being off?
November 6th, 2023 at 2:00 PM ^
JJ is our meal ticket; we shall not want. He maketh us to lie down in green gridirons. Etcetera. Just seeing him flattened between two NFL-quality Purdue defensive ends on one play, and coming up wincing, was enough to convince me that you titrate those runs carefully, baby. We already know that he can read the play, decide whether to keep. But I'd rather see us get a halfback rotation of Corum and Mullings really churning next Saturday, and JJ using the wheels when needed, rather than watching them come off, maybe the whole season with them.
November 6th, 2023 at 9:01 AM ^
RE: The 4th and 1.
"I think Clemons hesitates."
Who cares? Why are you lining up a WR in that spot to block a DE? They did it with Bell last year and he also got beat more than once so it's not a "Clemons" problem, it's a design problem.
It's like if you switch Zavier Simpson onto Zach Edey on a P&R and he doesn't pull down a rebound. Did he box him out? Well, kind of, by why even put yourself in that situation? The chances of it succeeding are pretty low.
November 6th, 2023 at 9:24 AM ^
Go watch the line again and the push they got and the fact that 2-3 linemen were available to block 2nd/3rd level guys. Run that play under center and it may be a TD. Still think bush push or Orji direct snap better coming out of a time out.
November 6th, 2023 at 10:06 AM ^
That's kind of been the MO since Harbaugh has arrived. You win 4/5 match ups along the LoS but it doesn't matter because EVERYONE has to win their match ups to squeak out 2 yards at times. There's a LB or Safety in the hole at 2 yards so each individual guy does well and it gets held down to very little gain. Not every play will go for 35 yards and a TD, but man, it would be nice to jettison the plays that are designed to get 3 yards if blocked perfectly (and then only get 1 because a backside OT doesn't emphatically win his 1 on 1).
November 6th, 2023 at 1:17 PM ^
The offensive playcalling overall has been much better than in past years, but it is frustrating that we're still good for an RPS -3 or -4 play in short yardage every few games. If the same thing happens against PSU or OSU and costs us the game, Jim will deserve as much criticism as we give Frames for putting a tight end on JTT or calling a zone read on 4th and 5.
November 6th, 2023 at 1:27 PM ^
O yeah, I'm much happier with Moore than I was with Gattis (I never liked him) and Weiss for sure. And as I said, not every play will be a winner, but they're setting themselves up to barely be successful IF the play goes off without a hitch.
November 6th, 2023 at 1:20 PM ^
On 4th and 1 we should have all tight ends on the edges, not wide receivers. The risk of a pass is still present but the body is bigger and used to blocking defensive linemen.
November 6th, 2023 at 9:12 AM ^
I have updated my 2023 MGoBlog music playlists with the songs from this episode - here are the links:
-
Apple Music: https://music.apple.com/us/playlist/2023-mgoblog-music/pl.u-11z0ofMkqvL
-
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/2a7Hw0FHtgqw351LwW8wPz?si=8690043244a24050
I'm really excited that the regular season is getting started; go Blue!
November 6th, 2023 at 9:35 AM ^
What a turnaround from a few years ago. Now we are scoring "too many TDs" and I welcome the opportunities to keep our FG kicker in practice.
November 6th, 2023 at 9:39 AM ^
Regarding putting stuff on tape, the only part I really care about would be fake ST plays/short-yardage/2-point plays where you want to catch the other team off guard. Stuff that requires a fair bit of misdirection and some surprise. But Morgan has seen the field a fair bit and people know he's fast; PSU and OSU undoubtedly have tape on him. But I do think using him as much as they have, in different ways beyond end-arounds and jet sweeps, will only make it harder to defend him because you won't be able to immediately shift your defense over like the Calvin Bell Memorial plays we saw with Carr.
Also, it was funny seeing PSU fans talk up how the past 2 weeks showed a re-awakening of the PSU offense, as if last week's game against IU didn't happen and that Maryland being trash in October and November wasn't a thing. PSU put up fewer yards per play than NW did. PSU's offense isn't a dumpster fire but we've seen them go against competent defenses and it's what they did against OSU, Iowa (sans TOs), and IU and it was all middling.
November 6th, 2023 at 10:21 AM ^
Feels like the team was pressing to crush everything in their way and leave no doubt. Also the earlier point about having that zen like approach that someone made about why Bowling Green was just off at night (and TCU) may have some backing; routine is so important and the noon kickoffs for PSU/Ohio are clutch
November 6th, 2023 at 10:35 AM ^
I know this one may be way out of left field. But is this a case the federal government should be interested in? Like, the way the media has manipulated people’s thinking. The direct opposition to the fabric of our society as innocent until proven guilty. Guilty because accused was the infantile stage of Cambodian genocide.
I really think the President needs to make a statement in the matter. Our entire American principles are threatened with this case. It’s unprecedented and needs to be addressed before this premeditated murder by the media gains a greater foothold in our society. Just a wondering.
November 6th, 2023 at 2:40 PM ^
Innocent until proven guilty only matters when the govt is trying to put you in a box. In every other instance it doesn't apply.
November 6th, 2023 at 5:46 PM ^
Interesting. Appreciate the thoughtful response. That’s new information to me in terms of the innocent until proven guilty thing.
November 6th, 2023 at 10:55 AM ^
Drew Allar is Kyle McCord without Marvin Harrison Jr.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:54 PM ^
That's largely been my vibes all year. McCord is a bit more mobile and Allar is a bit better arm but they're largely the same guy with different surrounding casts.
I think you could put Harrison in Iowa's roster and they'd average 25 points a game, that's how good he is.
November 6th, 2023 at 2:25 PM ^
I think you could put Harrison in Iowa's roster and they'd average 25 points a game, that's how good he is.
Put Harrison on Iowa and he'd be like sixth on the team in receiving, behind three TEs and two RBs...
November 6th, 2023 at 2:50 PM ^
If you've been following Iowatch, they've been failing to utilize their RBs in the passing game. They've thrown them a combined 15 passes on the season for only 97 yards.
November 6th, 2023 at 11:20 AM ^
I don't think the way to beat JJ is to play a lot of zone defense. I think the way to beat him is "play exclusively man for 8 weeks then throw in some zone curveballs at key moments" and even then you aren't "beating" him, you've just given up 41 points instead of 56.
November 6th, 2023 at 2:49 PM ^
And even then, only if he's having an off-for-JJ day! Many of those incompletes were complete if JJ DOs them like has been doing every past week (except the memory holed).
November 6th, 2023 at 3:09 PM ^
This. He was a step behind on most of his throws all night. If he hits some of those in step, Wilson in particular would have been able to cut up and take all the yards. He had two steps on most of those crossing routes - it's amazing how wide open he gets on nearly every play!
November 6th, 2023 at 11:52 AM ^
I remember being really confused the first time that I realized that "dynamic range compression" is a static adjustment.
Comments